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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 19th March 2020, 07:15 AM   #1041
angrysoba
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Right, it is no longer a competitive race.

I think Sanders needs to do the decent thing and concede. It wouldn't be responsible for him to tell everyone to get out the vote while there was a coronavirus pandemic going around. It would be different if this was a close race, but it isn't.

And before anyone says, "Come on, we are supposed to praise soldiers for risking their lives to install democracy!" well, there is a reason why they are soldiers and get the praise and everyone else doesn't.
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Old 19th March 2020, 07:49 AM   #1042
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Perhaps the party of voter suppression will do the right thing, just this once.

We live, as they say, in hope.
I feel like your missing of the point is deliberate, here. I know you're more intelligent than this.
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Old 19th March 2020, 09:30 AM   #1043
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I think Bernie will drop out in the near future.
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Old 19th March 2020, 12:42 PM   #1044
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"But Biden and Trump both represent the same.... *pause for dramatic effect* establishment OMG!!!" - Every Bernie Bro starting any second now.
The only True Bernie Bro we had around here last time turned into a Trump supporter as soon as Bernie was out. The folks here now are much more reasonable.
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Old 19th March 2020, 12:52 PM   #1045
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
The only True Bernie Bro we had around here last time turned into a Trump supporter as soon as Bernie was out. The folks here now are much more reasonable.
Daddy issues, looking for an old man to tell them how smart and great they are. Hopefully, those types will let Biden fill that void in them this time around.
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Old 20th March 2020, 12:42 PM   #1046
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
The only True Bernie Bro we had around here last time turned into a Trump supporter as soon as Bernie was out. The folks here now are much more reasonable.
I think we have had more then one Hardcore Bernie Bro, but they seem to have left.
And the guy we are talking about I suspect was always a Trump supporter who was pushing Bernie because he would be the easiest opponent for Donnie.
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Old 20th March 2020, 01:41 PM   #1047
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think we have had more then one Hardcore Bernie Bro, but they seem to have left.
And the guy we are talking about I suspect was always a Trump supporter who was pushing Bernie because he would be the easiest opponent for Donnie.
That was the Large Canine, right? His claim to have supported Bernie was never credible.
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Old 20th March 2020, 02:29 PM   #1048
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That was the Large Canine, right? His claim to have supported Bernie was never credible.
I took him at his word as someone who was eager for massive upheaval of the two party dynamic. I got the feeling that he actually thought Bernie would show it to the liberal elites. Once Trump emerged to fill that void he jumped on that train pretty quickly. But I may be misremembering.
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Old 26th March 2020, 05:21 PM   #1049
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2 poll workers in Florida test positive for covid-19. Broward County Supervisor of Elections warning that anyone who voted at those two locations should take precautions.

Wonder how many people will die because of the decision to not delay the primary?

https://twitter.com/caitielee0917/st...79632184619010
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Old 26th March 2020, 08:13 PM   #1050
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I wonder if this same reasoning will come in handy in November.

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Old 26th March 2020, 09:47 PM   #1051
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I wonder if this same reasoning will come in handy in November.
If the SARS-CoV-2 virus and and people having Covid-19 is still a problem in November, then the US is in deep, deep trouble.
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Old 27th March 2020, 07:29 AM   #1052
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
2 poll workers in Florida test positive for covid-19. Broward County Supervisor of Elections warning that anyone who voted at those two locations should take precautions.

Wonder how many people will die because of the decision to not delay the primary?

https://twitter.com/caitielee0917/st...79632184619010
Probably not many. I'm betting, not enough deaths for this particular decision to even come up as a significant factor in C19 deaths in Florida.
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Old 27th March 2020, 07:32 AM   #1053
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I wonder if this same reasoning will come in handy in November.
I like how we have one thread based on the premise that Trump might very well take the virus as an excuse to shut the country down and take it over. And then we have all these other discussions about how our very survival depends on the President getting his head out of his ass and shutting the country down.

Sooner or later, Team OMB is going to have to make up their minds: Do we suspend elections, or not?
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:02 AM   #1054
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I like how we have one thread based on the premise that Trump might very well take the virus as an excuse to shut the country down and take it over. And then we have all these other discussions about how our very survival depends on the President getting his head out of his ass and shutting the country down.

Sooner or later, Team OMB is going to have to make up their minds: Do we suspend elections, or not?

This is what I would call a straw man.

It ignores the details in order to pretend there are mutually contradicting positions, which there are not. For example, it is entirely consistent to claim we have a need to shut down and limit social interactions between people, while simultaneously claiming we need to have an alternative way to hold the election, such as mail in ballots.
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:14 AM   #1055
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
This is what I would call a straw man.

It ignores the details in order to pretend there are mutually contradicting positions, which there are not. For example, it is entirely consistent to claim we have a need to shut down and limit social interactions between people, while simultaneously claiming we need to have an alternative way to hold the election, such as mail in ballots.
Elections are run by the states. Any state government that sees a need can move to mail in ballots at their discretion. They can even declare an emergency and request federal funds to help pay for the change.

These are the DNC's primaries (the GOP's primary situation is discussed elsewhere). I'm sure the DNC could pressure states to do the needful, if they're concerned about in-person primaries.

Are there any accounts of the DNC working with state governments to convert their primaries to mail-in ?
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:19 AM   #1056
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Elections are run by the states. Any state government that sees a need can move to mail in ballots at their discretion. They can even declare an emergency and request federal funds to help pay for the change.

These are the DNC's primaries (the GOP's primary situation is discussed elsewhere). I'm sure the DNC could pressure states to do the needful, if they're concerned about in-person primaries.

Are there any accounts of the DNC working with state governments to convert their primaries to mail-in ?

My point is that this specific question:

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I like how we have one thread based on the premise that Trump might very well take the virus as an excuse to shut the country down and take it over. And then we have all these other discussions about how our very survival depends on the President getting his head out of his ass and shutting the country down.

Sooner or later, Team OMB is going to have to make up their minds: Do we suspend elections, or not?

is a straw man.

Do you have any examples of anyone against Trump suggesting we suspend the 2020 presidential election?
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:43 AM   #1057
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
If the SARS-CoV-2 virus and and people having Covid-19 is still a problem in November, then the US is in deep, deep trouble.
It likely will be to some extent where the health issues of voting as we know it will still be unwise. The hot spots will hopefully be under control by then, but my guess is that the whack-a-mole state of trying to prevent hot spots is going to go on for quite some time

Nothing that can't be worked around with vote by mail and extensive early voting access, but the old-school idea of everyone waiting in line to cram into a small space to use the same machines will be bad. Unlike something like a sporting event, you can't screen access to the polls.
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:12 AM   #1058
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
My point is that this specific question:




is a straw man.

Do you have any examples of anyone against Trump suggesting we suspend the 2020 presidential election?
Not yet. But the question could very well come up in a few months. What happens in September, when the contagion is still out there and states still haven't taken steps to convert to mail-in?

Even if we're not talking about it now, we're probably going to have to talk about it sometime. When we do, what are the OMB talking points going to be?

"The President must order all states to convert to mail-in or online voting, and must release federal funds to support this"?
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:26 AM   #1059
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Not yet. But the question could very well come up in a few months. What happens in September, when the contagion is still out there and states still haven't taken steps to convert to mail-in?

Even if we're not talking about it now, we're probably going to have to talk about it sometime. When we do, what are the OMB talking points going to be?

"The President must order all states to convert to mail-in or online voting, and must release federal funds to support this"?
We will see steps to fix this in states not currently in the business of voter suppression.

In other states, not so much.

What this would mean is that a Trump win in November would be more likely than it already is to include a staggering loss in the popular vote.
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:28 AM   #1060
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Not yet. But the question could very well come up in a few months. What happens in September, when the contagion is still out there and states still haven't taken steps to convert to mail-in?

Even if we're not talking about it now, we're probably going to have to talk about it sometime. When we do, what are the OMB talking points going to be?

"The President must order all states to convert to mail-in or online voting, and must release federal funds to support this"?

Now that is a good question, but it is irrelevant to my original point, which was pointing out your original comment was a straw man, which I see you now concede with your above highlighted comment. There's a huge distinction between saying "Trump must put the country on lockdown" and "Trump must therefore put the election on hold", and you presenting the OMB people as being inconsistent between the two was merely you using a disingenuous straw man, as I said.

However, I don't want to simply dismiss your question with that comment. Yes, I think most OMB people would be fine if the president ordered all states to convert to mail-in or online voting and released federal funds to support this.

I now have a question for you: Do you think Trump will actually do this?
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:29 AM   #1061
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Team OMB is going to have to make up their minds: Do we suspend elections, or not?
I'm not sure what "OMB" means but if we are to continue being the sort of nation that practices democracy and features orderly transfers of power, we have rather little choice in the matter (apart from the technicalities of how voting is to be accomplished). Once you give a chief executive the power to suspend elections in his party's favor, he tends to exercise that prerogative going forward.
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:48 AM   #1062
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
We will see steps to fix this in states not currently in the business of voter suppression.

In other states, not so much.

What this would mean is that a Trump win in November would be more likely than it already is to include a staggering loss in the popular vote.
In that case, it seems like suspending the elections until all the states can be brought into compliance would be the right solution.
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Old 27th March 2020, 09:57 AM   #1063
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
Now that is a good question, but it is irrelevant to my original point, which was pointing out your original comment was a straw man, which I see you now concede with your above highlighted comment.
Congratulations on winning possibly the most inconsequential slapfight I've seen all month. I'd award you an Internet, but in this time of coronavirus I confess I'm hoarding them.

Quote:
There's a huge distinction between saying "Trump must put the country on lockdown" and "Trump must therefore put the election on hold", and you presenting the OMB people as being inconsistent between the two was merely you using a disingenuous straw man, as I said.
Suspending scheduled elections is probably the most country-on-lockdown thing I can think of.

Quote:
However, I don't want to simply dismiss your question with that comment. Yes, I think most OMB people would be fine if the president ordered all states to convert to mail-in or online voting and released federal funds to support this.
And what's your contingency plan for the states that can't or won't convert in time?

Quote:
I now have a question for you: Do you think Trump will actually do this?
I don't.

But then, I also think it would be a bad idea anyway, for a variety of reasons. Those reasons ranging from it's probably not necessary, to it should be left up to the states to decide necessity at their level, to it would open up a ridiculous can of worms that nobody really wants to see opened if there's any other option.

If you think it would be a good idea, I'd like to learn your reasons. I'd also like to learn how you'd address the can of worms. The question of what to do if/when some states aren't in compliance at election time, for example.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:06 AM   #1064
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'm not sure what "OMB" means
It's the Office of Management and Budget. It's a department of the Executive Office of the President that produces budgets and oversees program quality in the Executive branch of the government. But that's not important right now.

- Frank Drebin, probably
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:17 AM   #1065
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
If the SARS-CoV-2 virus and and people having Covid-19 is still a problem in November, then the US is in deep, deep trouble.
We're 0.02% of the way into this.

People cannot wrap their heads around the scope of it.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:52 AM   #1066
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Congratulations on winning possibly the most inconsequential slapfight I've seen all month. I'd award you an Internet, but in this time of coronavirus I confess I'm hoarding them.
When you start taunting liberals for holding mutually exclusive positions, it's worth pointing out that the only logical fallacy is your straw man, and the liberals you ignorantly mocked are, in fact, being consistent, which, unfortunately, I can not say for your track record.


Quote:
Suspending scheduled elections is probably the most country-on-lockdown thing I can think of.
And yet no OMB person has proposed that. How about sticking with the liberals reality, instead of the liberals in your oversimplified fantasy delusion. Think you can manage that for a change?


Quote:
And what's your contingency plan for the states that can't or won't convert in time?
It's not my job to fix their mistakes. They should start converting now. If they do, I believe they have plenty of time.


Quote:
I don't.
Neither do I. He has no interest in facilitating a fair and safe election.

Quote:
But then, I also think it would be a bad idea anyway, for a variety of reasons. Those reasons ranging from it's probably not necessary, to it should be left up to the states to decide necessity at their level, to it would open up a ridiculous can of worms that nobody really wants to see opened if there's any other option.

If you think it would be a good idea, I'd like to learn your reasons. I'd also like to learn how you'd address the can of worms. The question of what to do if/when some states aren't in compliance at election time, for example.
The only cans of worms I see are states that neglect to make preparations. I've already addressed the fact that it's not my job to fix their mistakes.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:54 AM   #1067
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
But then, I also think it would be a bad idea anyway, for a variety of reasons. Those reasons ranging from it's probably not necessary, to it should be left up to the states to decide necessity at their level, to it would open up a ridiculous can of worms that nobody really wants to see opened if there's any other option.

If some states want to suspend their own presidential elections, I would be fine with that.

They can let the remaining states decide the 2020 presidential election: Whoever gets a majority of the remaining electoral votes.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:59 AM   #1068
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There is absolutely no excuse for suspending elections. Delaying some primaries? Maybe.

The bottom line is that every state has the capability to offer absentee ballots. Distributing them to every voter should be easy to arrange in the SEVEN MONTHS between now and the first Tuesday of November.
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Old 27th March 2020, 11:26 AM   #1069
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
It's not my job to fix their mistakes.
I would say that it's your job as a citizen and a voter to have an opinion on public policy. It's your job to say what plans you think the government should have in place, and it's your job to judge the government's plans and how well the government carries them out. And it's absolutely your job, if you propose a government policy, to consider the trade-offs and risks, and have some idea of contingency plans if your proposal is implemented but runs into problems.
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Old 27th March 2020, 11:32 AM   #1070
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
If some states want to suspend their own presidential elections, I would be fine with that.

They can let the remaining states decide the 2020 presidential election: Whoever gets a majority of the remaining electoral votes.
Sure. But that's a state-level decision. Very different from the federal government suspending elections in non-conforming states.

Earlier you asked me if I thought Trump would suspend elections.

My question to you is, could the country get to a point where he should suspend elections?

Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
There is absolutely no excuse for suspending elections. Delaying some primaries? Maybe.
That's kind of where I'm at.

But I'd say it should be done at the discretion of individual states, not by federal fiat.

Quote:
The bottom line is that every state has the capability to offer absentee ballots. Distributing them to every voter should be easy to arrange in the SEVEN MONTHS between now and the first Tuesday of November.
In a perfect world, the bottom line is profitable for everyone. It'll be interesting to see how events play out over the next seven months, in the world we actually live in. My hypothesis is that distributing absentee ballots to every voter won't become necessary. On the other hand, what happens if it does become necessary and some states didn't figure it out in time (or simply didn't bother to act when they still had time to act)?

Last edited by theprestige; 27th March 2020 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 27th March 2020, 11:36 AM   #1071
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I would say that it's your job as a citizen and a voter to have an opinion on public policy. It's your job to say what plans you think the government should have in place, and it's your job to judge the government's plans and how well the government carries them out. And it's absolutely your job, if you propose a government policy, to consider the trade-offs and risks, and have some idea of contingency plans if your proposal is implemented but runs into problems.

And if you review my previous posts, you will find that I've already stated my opinion: States should start making plans now for mail in/online voting in November.

Why you persist in pestering me about it beyond that remains a mystery. Deflection?
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Old 27th March 2020, 11:37 AM   #1072
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Sure. But that's a state-level decision. Very different from the federal government suspending elections in non-conforming states.

Earlier you asked me if I thought Trump would suspend elections.

My question to you is, could the country get to a point where he should suspend elections?


No.





Hell No
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:24 PM   #1073
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
And if you review my previous posts, you will find that I've already stated my opinion: States should start making plans now for mail in/online voting in November.

Why you persist in pestering me about it beyond that remains a mystery. Deflection?
I'm sorry it's a mystery. I'm trying to be as clear as I can.

My question is not only, "what should the states be doing now?", but also "what happens if they don't?", and "what plans should be put in place against that contingency?"

How to hold democratic elections during a pandemic is a serious issue. It can't simply be addressed by saying "if the states act now, it won't be a problem."

If this pandemic continues in spread and severity, at some point we are going to have to start talking about what contingency plans the president should (or should not) put into action. My question is, what kinds of contingency plans should we be considering? You say you're answering it, but to me it seems like you're deferring it indefinitely as "not my job."
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:27 PM   #1074
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
No.





Hell No
We definitely agree on this, at least as the situation currently stands.

Earlier you asked me if I thought the president would suspend elections because of the pandemic. Now I'll ask you the same question: Do you think the president will find an excuse to suspend the elections?
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Old 27th March 2020, 01:32 PM   #1075
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm sorry it's a mystery. I'm trying to be as clear as I can.

My question is not only, "what should the states be doing now?", but also "what happens if they don't?", and "what plans should be put in place against that contingency?"

How to hold democratic elections during a pandemic is a serious issue. It can't simply be addressed by saying "if the states act now, it won't be a problem."

If this pandemic continues in spread and severity, at some point we are going to have to start talking about what contingency plans the president should (or should not) put into action. My question is, what kinds of contingency plans should we be considering? You say you're answering it, but to me it seems like you're deferring it indefinitely as "not my job."

I ain't no miracle worker. I believe it to be true that "if the states act now, it won't be a problem". Honestly, the problem I have with your presentation is I get the feeling that you seem to think you're scoring points for your position simply by asking questions I have no answer for, yet ignoring the relevant answer I have already provided. You can only "What If" it so far before you come across as trolling, to be honest.

For an analogous (in my mind) example, suppose someones asks how to protect themselves from covid-19. I tell them to limit their exposure, wash hands frequently, avoid touching their face. Then you come along and present me with a case: "This person went to a gathering of 5000 people, shook the hand of everyone they met and then chewed their fingernails and rubbed their eyes (without washing their hands first). What would you tell them to do to protect themselves from covid-19?" And I would tell them it's too goddamn late. Maybe they'll get lucky, but listening to my advice is evidently something they refuse to do, why keep asking me?

If a state is unprepared for the election, they can either manage as best as they can, or sit and watch while the rest of us vote. That's my answer. And their electoral votes should be ignored; 270 is no longer need to win, the winner will be whoever wins a majority of the electoral college of the states that actually participated.

Constitutionally, I don't think there is any requirement for a state to hold an election for the population. They can choose their electoral college representatives however they like. That's an option, but I expect that any state doing that is going to have a hell of a lot of protests (quite possibly violent) if that's the path they choose.

I have given you the most reasonable answer "States should prepare now". Is that unacceptable to you?

I want to add one more thing: I don't just keep saying "It's not my job" to dismiss the question. I mean that sincerely. Specifically, I do not have experience in these matters. I expect that many states have various contingency plans for such occasions. I do not know the details of such plans. I do not know what other plans have been adopted in the past for similar situations. Holding no power of my own to decide these things, it is not important for me to learn these contingency plans (or previous solutions) either. I've got my own life to deal with right now, you know. Like I said, it truly feels to me like you're giving me the "Yeah, but what if.....Yeah, but what if.....Yeah, but what if.....Yeah, but what if.....Yeah, but what if.....Yeah, but what if....." treatment indefinitely as a method of deflection, as if you somehow think you can win the argument simply by demonstrating I do not know the precise position and velocity of every entity in the equation.

And I think it is important for me to call you out on that.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
We definitely agree on this, at least as the situation currently stands.

Earlier you asked me if I thought the president would suspend elections because of the pandemic. Now I'll ask you the same question: Do you think the president will find an excuse to suspend the elections?
I think he might float the idea. Since, as has been mentioned repeatedly, states control their own elections, I don't think it will hold much sway, but if he does I think a decent portion of his sycophants might back him up.

Will you stop supporting him if he does?
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Old 27th March 2020, 02:12 PM   #1076
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
There is absolutely no excuse for suspending elections. Delaying some primaries? Maybe.

The bottom line is that every state has the capability to offer absentee ballots. Distributing them to every voter should be easy to arrange in the SEVEN MONTHS between now and the first Tuesday of November.
To be clear, for the primary process (main subject of this thread) to function properly, we're on a timeline of rather fewer than seven months. Democratic National Convention is 108 days away, as of this post. In a two-party system, it is essential that both parties get their **** together reasonably well prior to the general election campaign, otherwise the voters won't be given a clear choice.

(While I'd much prefer a multiparty parliamentary system, two clear choices are far better than one.)
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Old 27th March 2020, 02:14 PM   #1077
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
To be clear, for the primary process (main subject of this thread) to function properly, we're on a timeline of rather fewer than seven months. Democratic National Convention is 108 days away, as of this post. In a two-party system, it is essential that both parties get their **** together reasonably well prior to the general election campaign.
No ****, Sherlock. Those states that have yet to hold their primaries need to get off the dime and get absentee ballots into the hands of their voters sooner rather than later.
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Old 27th March 2020, 02:39 PM   #1078
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
We're 0.02% of the way into this.

People cannot wrap their heads around the scope of it.

When would you guess caseload is going to peak in the U.S.?
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Old 27th March 2020, 03:02 PM   #1079
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
Those states that have yet to hold their primaries need to get off the dime and get absentee ballots into the hands of their voters sooner rather than later.
Of course, that is the preferred solution.
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Old 27th March 2020, 04:09 PM   #1080
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Of course, that is the preferred solution.
It is the solution, being perfectly legal and responsible given the problem we face. Any state government doing otherwise (e.g., just opening up the usual polling places for people to gather together and share viruses) should be considered criminally negligent.
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