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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:36 PM   #41
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So the app that's apparently screwing up is called "Defending Digital Democracy".

You Yankistanis are a funny bunch for sure.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:47 PM   #42
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538 is smart, with no number to report they are having fun describing the desperate attepmtso the network hosts and talking head to fill time.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:49 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
538 is smart, with no number to report they are having fun describing the desperate attepmtso the network hosts and talking head to fill time.
It was a clever move for Klob to go ahead and give her stump speech in order to fill the time. I'm off to bed, will check back a.m.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 10:36 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
538 is smart, with no number to report they are having fun describing the desperate attepmtso the network hosts and talking head to fill time.
They are my favorite of the night as well.

They are musing over the whole debacle in a therapeutic way.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 10:44 PM   #45
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CNN livestream showed Biden, then when he finished, cut to Warren. When Warren finished, the anchor mentioned party officials arranging a conference call and then a segue to roll Biden's speech a second time. I did a search right then for "Bernie Iowa live" and saw the Guardian cover what seemed like maybe the final 3rd of a speech.

Not saying...just saying...
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Old 3rd February 2020, 10:52 PM   #46
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Basically everyone gave their 1st place version of their speech. Buttigieg teased/annoyed many journalists teasing out pictures of inconclusive tallys from unknown stages of various sites for a while.

I think Yang had a fun "inside joke" moment with some reporters asking how he feels about his night by throwing his hands up and shouting "victory!"
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Old 3rd February 2020, 11:04 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
This could be a case of the enthusiasm gap.

Trump had enthusiastic supporters. According to dudalb, Bernie Bros are the equivalent of Trump supporters, meaning Sanders should do well.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 11:16 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
CNN livestream showed Biden, then when he finished, cut to Warren. When Warren finished, the anchor mentioned party officials arranging a conference call and then a segue to roll Biden's speech a second time. I did a search right then for "Bernie Iowa live" and saw the Guardian cover what seemed like maybe the final 3rd of a speech.

Not saying...just saying...
CNN didn't broadcast Bernie so all the Bernie Bros will be shrieking about the conspiracy, but...

Bernie is a Sixties Radical who hasn't changed in 40 years
The Bernie Bros believe in the Lost Tribe theory of elections
They are just like Trump supporters. They live in their fantasy world. Also, Trump will win!
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Old 3rd February 2020, 11:59 PM   #49
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Good evening.
Nothing like giving the Trump campaign ammunition. This statement coming from them:

“Democrats are stewing in a caucus mess of their own creation with the sloppiest train wreck in history. It would be natural for people to doubt the fairness of the process. And these are the people who want to run our entire health care system? Tonight President Trump posted a record performance in the well-run GOP Iowa caucuses with record turnout for an incumbent.”

Of course Trump was the only Republican they could caucus for. Did he come in first or last?
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:15 AM   #50
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Of course, Trump will be pissing himself at this. It will just play out as Democratic Party incompetence.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:17 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yeah, I would bet that either Iowa goes to a primary system, or they lose their opening spot in elections from now on.
Part of the way they held onto the first in the nation status was by maintaining the caucus. New Hampshire actually created a law that they must have the first primary. In 2008 Florida and Michigan tried to jump the gun, and ended up having their delegation decertified (they were later recertified, but given only 1/2 vote apiece).
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:24 AM   #52
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This is kind of depressing.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:28 AM   #53
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Maybe this massive screw-up will catalyze abandoning the Iowa caucus. The caucus method is at this point willfully regressive. The massive time commitment ensures reduced voter participation, and the process of literally counting and recounting heads means unreliable and slow reporting of results.

Iowa should go to a primary system, preferably a ranked choice primary system, or they should not be the first to vote state.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:21 AM   #54
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...cuses.amp.html

Read it and weep.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:33 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe this massive screw-up will catalyze abandoning the Iowa caucus. The caucus method is at this point willfully regressive. The massive time commitment ensures reduced voter participation, and the process of literally counting and recounting heads means unreliable and slow reporting of results.

Iowa should go to a primary system, preferably a ranked choice primary system, or they should not be the first to vote state.
The need for RCV is limited by having proportional delegates.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:38 AM   #56
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From Jared Holt, journalist at Right Wing Watch

Quote:
A shoddy app built by apparently incompetent consultants delaying Iowa election results is perhaps the most Democratic Party thing I have ever heard of
https://twitter.com/jaredlholt/statu...71006591193088
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:45 AM   #57
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So did the Democrats have the Benny Hill music playing live or do we need to add it in post?
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:42 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
So did the Democrats have the Benny Hill music playing live or do we need to add it in post?
Let's not do the hasty generalizationWP thing just yet.

Iowa is just one (smallish, oldish, rather whitish) state.

The vast majority of Democrats live and organize elsewhere.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:46 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Let's not do the hasty generalizationWP thing just yet.

Iowa is just one (smallish, oldish, rather whitish) state.

The vast majority of Democrats live and organize elsewhere.
Really? Because it sure wasn't like that yesterday in the buildup to Iowa.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:20 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Because it sure wasn't like that yesterday in the buildup to Iowa.
I'm not entirely clear which media narrative you're selling here.

Iowa counts for a handful of delegates and (at best) a media/polls bounce going into NH and the larger primaries.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:29 AM   #61
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"Iowa? However said Iowa was important!? Show me were anyone said Iowa was important!" revisionist history it is.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:45 AM   #62
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Yeah, we're not gonna save face with this much egg on it.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:56 AM   #63
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Video appears to show a precinct in Des Moine deciding a delegate tie between Sanders and Buttigeig with a coin flip.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...020/index.html
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:59 AM   #64
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Ah, that reminds me...

https://youtu.be/9FTtIbkTWTY?t=105
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:07 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Video appears to show a precinct in Des Moine deciding a delegate tie between Sanders and Buttigeig with a coin flip.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...020/index.html
Democracy at work.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:19 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"Iowa? However said Iowa was important!? Show me were anyone said Iowa was important!"
Self-professed skeptic makes up fake quotations.

News at 11.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:24 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Video appears to show a precinct in Des Moine deciding a delegate tie between Sanders and Buttigeig with a coin flip.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...020/index.html
What does the outcome of the coin flip actually determine? How to appropriate a single delegate when there are an odd number or something?

And, if so, what is the alternate solution? Cut the delegates in half?

(delegates are actual people, of course, who go on to vote in the next round)
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:25 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
And, if so, what is the alternate solution?
It's very possible there legitimately wasn't one, that just highlights how absurd this whole thing is.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:25 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Democracy at work.
If it's a tie then there's not many solutions.
We've used straws and coin flips here in the UK before now if an election is tied.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-eng...n-vote-is-tied
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:25 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe this massive screw-up will catalyze abandoning the Iowa caucus.
Why? This failure doesn't resemble any previous Iowa caucus outcome.

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Old 4th February 2020, 09:29 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Why? This failure doesn't resemble any previous Iowa caucus outcome.

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/voting_software.png
This screw up was largely the result on a very poor attempt to modernize the extremely low-tech caucus system.

A very robust alternative exists. A primary system with paper ballots and automated counting, with hand counting as a backup.

If Iowa wants to maintain the "nonviable candidates can re-allocate their votes" system, the supposed benefit of a caucus, then they can implement a ranked choice voting system.

There's no reason that people need to spend an entire evening standing around in some gym to express their voting intentions.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:30 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
This screw up was largely the result on a very poor attempt to modernize the extremely low-tech caucus system.

A very robust alternative exists. A primary system with paper ballots and automated counting, with hand counting as a backup.

If Iowa wants to maintain the "nonviable candidates can re-allocate their votes" system, the supposed benefit of a caucus, then they can implement a ranked choice voting system.

There's no reason that people need to spend an entire evening standing around in some gym to express their voting intentions.
That's for Iowans to decide, but this specific failure isn't really indicative of the merits or demerits of a caucus system.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:32 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Video appears to show a precinct in Des Moine deciding a delegate tie between Sanders and Buttigeig with a coin flip.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...020/index.html
Yes? The coin flips only affect delegates to the State convention, though.


Percentile dice would be so much cooler.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:32 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
There's no reason that people need to spend an entire evening standing around in some gym to express their voting intentions.
It's gatekeeping. "If you don't care enough to take the night off / get a baby sitter / etc then we don't want your opinion" which does not translate as well into the general election as something which is more functionally like the general election.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:34 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
If it's a tie then there's not many solutions.
We've used straws and coin flips here in the UK before now if an election is tied.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-eng...n-vote-is-tied
Come on, guv'nor! Why not put ferret down trousers and one who can stand it longest gets t' victory?
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:38 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's very possible there legitimately wasn't one, that just highlights how absurd this whole thing is.
Why?

There are a set number of delegates, they get proportioned in a specific way. There is a chance that two candidates will have an equal number of supporters. If the delegates is odd, there has to be a method of deciding who gets the extra delegate. It's not absurd, it's math.

I also like the idea of the percentile dice, so everyone has a chance, but a coin flip is as good as anything, and better than, again, your non-solution.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, forget the caucus and make it a primary. Well it isn't, so you have to deal with the situation you have.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:44 AM   #77
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Electronic Voting

The worst option possible.
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"Itís easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:47 AM   #78
SuburbanTurkey
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Seriously, what is the holdup now?

Even assuming the caucus app has catastrophically failed, enough time has passed to have done this the old fashioned way, either by hand delivering the completed forms or by calling them in.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:48 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's gatekeeping. "If you don't care enough to take the night off / get a baby sitter / etc then we don't want your opinion" which does not translate as well into the general election as something which is more functionally like the general election.
It's an non-representative state voting in an intentionally low-turnout way, but they're first, so they matter for some reason.

Stuff like this drives me to drink.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:51 AM   #80
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Seriously, what is the holdup now?

Even assuming the caucus app has catastrophically failed, enough time has passed to have done this the old fashioned way, either by hand delivering the completed forms or by calling them in.
The old way required drilling the people running it to do it and even then, prone to issues. This time they were drilled on the new way. That failed and now they had to learn the "backup" old way with minimal familiarity.
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