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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 4th February 2020, 03:51 PM   #121
Meadmaker
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The company that wrote the software says it "regrets the glitches".
No S*** Sherlock.
You might as well start filling out the bankruptcy forms now....
I think it's a not for profit.

Those can still go bankrupt, but somehow I doubt that they made a massive investment in up front costs. They probably don't have a lot of debt.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:09 PM   #122
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https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

Buttigieg
First Alignment: 23,666
Final Alignment: 27,030
Delegates: 363

Sanders
First Alignment: 27,088
Final Alignment: 28,220
Delegates: 338

You gotta love our voting systems in the US.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:14 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think it's a not for profit.

Those can still go bankrupt, but somehow I doubt that they made a massive investment in up front costs. They probably don't have a lot of debt.
They don't need to have a lot of debt. A lawsuit to recover the purchase price of the software would probably sink them.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:16 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think it's a not for profit.

.
They got that bit right.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:23 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

Buttigieg
First Alignment: 23,666
Final Alignment: 27,030
Delegates: 363

Sanders
First Alignment: 27,088
Final Alignment: 28,220
Delegates: 338

You gotta love our voting systems in the US.

This site still has only 62% of results and what you have (rounded) as delegates they have as "SDE", whatever that is, with three digits behind the decimal point.

edit: Iowa certainly doesn't have 701 delegates, does it?
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:26 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The company that wrote the software says it "regrets the glitches".
No S*** Sherlock.
You might as well start filling out the bankruptcy forms now....
Nevada, which was planning to use the same system, has already publicly stated they are abandoning it.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:31 PM   #127
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Low turnout, that is a bad sign for the Democrats, whoever gets up.

Trump can run a targeted campaign in the swing states to get his special interest groups out to vote. If the Democrats can't match that then Trump is easily heading for a second term.

There is a high expectation that Ginsburg will retire from the Supreme Court and the Evangelicals and other conservative Christians will want to make sure of that vacancy being filled by a conservative judge, whatever they think of Trump.
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Last edited by Robin; 4th February 2020 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:38 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
This site still has only 62% of results and what you have (rounded) as delegates they have as "SDE", whatever that is, with three digits behind the decimal point.
State delegate equivalent.

It's the number awarded for the national convention.

Last edited by Venom; 4th February 2020 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 4th February 2020, 04:39 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

Buttigieg
First Alignment: 23,666
Final Alignment: 27,030
Delegates: 363

Sanders
First Alignment: 27,088
Final Alignment: 28,220
Delegates: 338

You gotta love our voting systems in the US.
It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference. And apparently they do love it. Why so judgy? It's not like they're forcing your state party to do it their way.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:05 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
They don't need to have a lot of debt. A lawsuit to recover the purchase price of the software would probably sink them.

Oops. Forgot about lawsuits. This is America after all. Yeah, bankruptcy.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:07 PM   #131
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Biden was lucky to get out of Iowa with a fourth; Klobuchar did have a strong finish. Mayor Pete may eke out a victory in delegates despite losing on the final alignment (so far), but the bookies are not impressed. His odds of winning the nomination are currently at 5.1%.

You can see at the Des Moines Register site the effect of the final alignment. The top three (Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren) all increased their vote totals, while the rest lost voters. Apparently only 3,741 out of the so far 111 thousand left the caucus when their first choice was declared not viable. Buttigieg did the best in picking up voters on the final alignment; he gained 3200 voters so far, compared to 1000 for Bernie and 1300 for Warren.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:08 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Oops. Forgot about lawsuits. This is America after all. Yeah, bankruptcy.
You are against lawsuits?
I agree there are lots of frivolous lawsuits;but the way to handle them is to have them thrown out of court at a early stage. Taking away the right to sue for damages is just plain wrong.
And I think for the Iowa Democrats to sue for damages here is 100 percent justified. If there was even a case of a product not performing and hurting it's user it's this one.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:13 PM   #133
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That is another thing I don't like about the caucus system:even without the software fiasco it is so damn confusing.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:26 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
State delegate equivalent.

It's the number awarded for the national convention.
No, it's not.

There are only 41 of those.

See post 110 for a relatively brief & hopefully accurate synopsis of this bizarre six-step process.
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Old 4th February 2020, 05:42 PM   #135
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I kind of like the way the reveal turned out, actually. They had a short press conference to apologize for the "glitch", then posted the Caucus stats. That's it! No micro-monitoring of practically each single vote from each single district and the accompanying speculation. (I'm still wondering how they filled all that time with ZERO stats since last night...)

Of course, it's been several hours now and we're still left with the one stat board. It's only a matter of time before mediaheads start discussing the font used in order to get some different angle on it.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:23 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference. And apparently they do love it. Why so judgy? It's not like they're forcing your state party to do it their way.
It's also the voting system of Iowa Republicans.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:26 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
They don't need to have a lot of debt. A lawsuit to recover the purchase price of the software would probably sink them.
Was the problem the software itself or users who were unfamiliar with it trying to use it for the first time on election night?

I heard that some people were having trouble downloading the software, which made me think WTF. Why wasn't it downloaded and installed sooner? Why hadn't the users already logged in and tested its functionality before election night? Also there was no training on how to use it.

Anyone who's ever used new software knows that there's usually a learning curve. It's not just the software itself you have to test; the users need to practice using it before they need to use it for real.

Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Quote:
DES MOINES — Sean Bagniewski had seen the problems coming.

It wasn’t so much that the new app that the Iowa Democratic Party had planned to use to report its caucus results didn’t work. It was that people were struggling to even log in or download it in the first place. After all, there had never been any app-specific training for the many precinct chairs.

So last Thursday Mr. Bagniewski, the chairman of the Democratic Party in Iowa’s most populous county, Polk, instructed his precinct chairs to simply call in the caucus results as they had always done. But during Monday night’s caucuses, those precinct chairs could not connect with party leaders via phone. Hold times stretched past 90 minutes. And when Mr. Bagniewski had his executive director to take pictures of the results with her smartphone and drive over to the Iowa Democratic Party headquarters to deliver them in person she was turned away without explanation.

“I don’t even know if they know what they don’t know,” Mr. Bagniewski said of the state party shortly before 2 a.m. on Tuesday.

Inside the party’s boiler room, the warning signs flashed almost as soon as results came in from the new app — as early as 8:15 p.m. The error rate was high, even as raw data seemed fine. Somehow it was mangled in the process of transmitting it for display. No one could figure out why.

And so, for nearly 22 hours after the Iowa caucuses had begun — with much fanfare, live cable coverage and deep consequences for the Democratic Party and the country — the state party remained silent.

This surreal opening act for the voting portion of the 2020 primary season included unexplained “inconsistencies” in results that were not released to the public until late Tuesday afternoon, heated conference calls where state party officials hung up on campaign staff members and a state of suspended animation in the immediate aftermath of the first presidential nominating contest.

“A systemwide disaster,” said Derek Eadon, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairman.
OK, so there may have been problems with the app itself too.

Usually I think software makers protect themselves from liability for flaws in their software with user license agreements that say the software is offered "as is" and isn't guaranteed to do anything in particular.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:28 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
It's also the voting system of Iowa Republicans.
It is?!?!?!

Holy **** !!!

Now I totally hate it and/or love it, depending on how you need me to react, in order to satisfy whatever need prompted you to post this inanity.

I hope this helps. Have a nice day!
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:49 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
This site still has only 62% of results and what you have (rounded) as delegates they have as "SDE", whatever that is, with three digits behind the decimal point.

edit: Iowa certainly doesn't have 701 delegates, does it?
By some kind of funny math process, the actual number of voters doesn't count. They are converted into SDEs (state delegate equivalents) and then by another math process the SDEs are converted into national delegates (only 41 for Iowa). The state delegates are delegates to the state convention, and from there it it whittled down to 41 national delegates to be sent to the national convention.

Right now, according to Google if you Google "iowa results" it says 10 national delegates for Buttigieg, 10 for Sanders, 4 for Warren, and zero for all the others, but they aren't done counting so that's probably why that only adds up to 24.
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Old 4th February 2020, 06:59 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference. And apparently they do love it. Why so judgy? It's not like they're forcing your state party to do it their way.
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
It's also the voting system of Iowa Republicans.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It is?!?!?!

Holy **** !!!

Now I totally hate it and/or love it, depending on how you need me to react, in order to satisfy whatever need prompted you to post this inanity.

I hope this helps. Have a nice day!
Despite your totally ridiculous over the top and childish retort, you did imply that only the Dems use the caucus in Iowa when you said "It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference."

Why you had such a juvenile response to my simply pointing out the fact that Iowa Republicans use it, too, I can only guess.

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Old 4th February 2020, 07:01 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Despite your totally ridiculous over the top and childish retort, you did imply that only the Dems use the caucus in Iowa when you said "It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference."

Why you had such a juvenile response to my simply pointing out the fact that Iowa Republicans use it, too, I can only guess.
What's your point, Stacyhs?
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:02 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
What does the outcome of the coin flip actually determine? How to appropriate a single delegate when there are an odd number or something?

And, if so, what is the alternate solution? Cut the delegates in half?

(delegates are actual people, of course, who go on to vote in the next round)
From what I'm seeing in all likelihood it won't make a difference in the final math (the delegates sent to the national convention). It'll be less than a rounding error probably. But, you never know. When was the last time the result of an election hinged on one single vote?
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:05 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What's your point, Stacyhs?
I think his point is that Iowa Republicans use the same system too. You said it was the system of Iowa Democrats.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:06 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What's your point, Stacyhs?
I think it's pretty apparent in my last point post. But I'll repeat it: Iowa Republicans also use the caucus. Why you think there is more than just that, I have no idea.

Last edited by Stacyhs; 4th February 2020 at 07:07 PM.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:08 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I think his point is that Iowa Republicans use the same system too. You said it was the system of Iowa Democrats.
It is the system of Iowa Democrats.

It's Democrats complaining. Maybe they should complain to their Iowa compatriots.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:15 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference. And apparently they do love it. Why so judgy? It's not like they're forcing your state party to do it their way.
Voting systems all over the country are stupid. From states to federal, from caucuses to FPTP. Then you have the disaster that is electronic voting machines.

And yes I'm forced to live with the terrible results and politicians that such systems produce and the awful effects we see from them.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:39 PM   #147
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I have absolutely no problem with the caucus system and thinks it works very well. It's the automation that I don't trust.
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:46 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I have absolutely no problem with the caucus system and thinks it works very well.
Do you think it will assign the 41 delegates with a reasonable degree of proportionality relative to what the 150k voters indicated?
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Old 4th February 2020, 07:55 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Do you think it will assign the 41 delegates with a reasonable degree of proportionality relative to what the 150k voters indicated?
Well, compared with states that assign their delegates on a "winner-takes-all" basis, yes, it's likely to be more proportional than that.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:07 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Well, compared with states that assign their delegates on a "winner-takes-all" basis, yes, it's likely to be more proportional than that.
Well, obvs. Bit of a low bar.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:20 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Do you think it will assign the 41 delegates with a reasonable degree of proportionality relative to what the 150k voters indicated?
I have no idea. Having been involved in caucus held in my state, I know that isn't how they worked in Washington. The caucuses elected delegates to attend the state convention and the delegates at the State convention decided the allotment of delegates to the National convention. Horse trading can and does take place. I don't like the primary system. I'd rather return to caucuses in all the states.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:30 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
So,here's what I read on the internet, and if you can't trust the internet, who can you trust?

They count the votes, come up with a fraction of total votes for each candidate, multiply by number of delegates, and that's how many each candidate gets. Except, what about fractions? If Joe gets 4.6 delegates and Amy gets 3.4 delegates, what then? Some of you might see an obvious answer, but that's not how they do things in Iowa. Instead, all fractional delegates are settled by coin flip, regardless of the size of the fractions.
That is not correct. You can view the rules here:

https://acc99235-748f-4706-80f5-4b87...985876cce8.pdf

The fractions are rounded up or down based on whether the fraction is more or less than .5. But then you can end up with more delegates assigned than there are delegates, or to few.

If there are too many assigned, somebody has to lose one. The person with the smallest fraction that was rounded up loses a delegate. If there are to few, the person with the largest fraction that was not rounded up gets the extra delegate.

The coin flip comes into play when a delegate has to be removed or added and there is a tie in the fraction.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:33 PM   #153
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Well that's all perfectly sensible then.
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Old 4th February 2020, 08:43 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'd rather return to caucuses in all the states.
Ok, I'm really curious to hear how this would be superior (in terms of your own values and goals) to sending ballots to every registered voter at their place of registration, and using the results to assign DNC delegates based on relatively simple arithmetic.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:00 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Ok, I'm really curious to hear how this would be superior (in terms of your own values and goals) to sending ballots to every registered voter at their place of registration, and using the results to assign DNC delegates based on relatively simple arithmetic.
Because I don't think that primaries produce the best candidates. I don't think it will happen though.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:21 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Because I don't think that primaries produce the best candidates.
The best at what?

1) Representing the voters from the relevant party and contested state

2) Representing the stated values of the national party

3) Winning in the general election

4) Other
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:41 PM   #157
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Representing voters who've actually been paying any attention?
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:43 PM   #158
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Media heads are still waiting for an update to precinct reporting. It's still at 62%. The same stat page has been up for hours. My guess is that this last one will be the Final, which is why it's taking so long.
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:52 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Representing voters who've actually been paying any attention?
https://twitter.com/CogSciGirlPhD/st...20871321264128
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:59 PM   #160
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I almost referred to that exception myself just to say it's obviously an exception, but figured it wasn't really needed because everybody here's already familiar with the concept so it would just be an insult to everybody's intelligence.
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