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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 5th February 2020, 04:35 PM   #201
Venom
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WTF is wrong with Iowans.

turnout wasn't that great at all. Pretty average-above average compared to prior elections since the 2000s.

I hope we aren't in for an ugly surprise in the general.
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Old 5th February 2020, 04:42 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I would say have all the primaries on one day, but I don't see that happening.
I heard someone on a podcast suggest Maryland as the first state. Really, and primary (not caucus - that system keeps too many people from participating) state with a more representative population would do. Florida or New York could do well, although they may be a bit too populous. NY, in particular, has a decent share of blak, hispanic, *and* Jewish voters, as well as a decent rural section outside of major cities. And they've apparently changed their voting laws so you no longer need to change registration months in advance (don't know for sure, though).

ETA, perhaps Cali and a a midwest state join in, to help balance things out geographically?

Last edited by Mumbles; 5th February 2020 at 04:55 PM.
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Old 5th February 2020, 04:47 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
If we are going to keep primaries, I think that makes the most sense. I'd also have it much closer to the general. We really need to shorten this process man.
On second though, not sure about the one day idea, but I think we really, really, need to shorten the process.
At one time, people did begin serious campaigning until the November before the election year.
The campaign starting two freaking years before the actual election is destructive; if nothing else a lot of people get just plain sick of it and suffer burnout at the exact time they should start paying attention.
ANd I think a lot of good potential candidates shy away because they don't want to spend two years in media hell.

The primary system is not perfect, but it's better then a system like the UK were pretty much a few Party big shots make all the decisions.
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Last edited by dudalb; 5th February 2020 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 5th February 2020, 05:03 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I would say have all the primaries on one day, but I don't see that happening.
I generally prefer solutions which can be nudged into existence, and this is one of them. DNC could reward states who award delegates on "Super Tuesday" and penalize those who run their process earlier, weighing based on how many weeks earlier.

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Old 6th February 2020, 12:16 AM   #205
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nearly 97 percent of precincts have reported their results.

Man this is a tight final quarter.

Pete Buttigieg 550 votes - 26.22%
Bernie Sanders 547 votes - 26.07%

according to Iowa public radio
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Old 6th February 2020, 01:12 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference. And apparently they do love it. Why so judgy? It's not like they're forcing your state party to do it their way.
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
It's also the voting system of Iowa Republicans.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It is?!?!?!

Holy **** !!!

Now I totally hate it and/or love it, depending on how you need me to react, in order to satisfy whatever need prompted you to post this inanity.

I hope this helps. Have a nice day!
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Despite your totally ridiculous over the top and childish retort, you did imply that only the Dems use the caucus in Iowa when you said "It's not our voting system. It's the voting system of Iowa Democrats, for indicating their preference."

Why you had such a juvenile response to my simply pointing out the fact that Iowa Republicans use it, too, I can only guess.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What's your point, Stacyhs?
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I think it's pretty apparent in my last point post. But I'll repeat it: Iowa Republicans also use the caucus. Why you think there is more than just that, I have no idea.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It seemed important enough for you to post it. What was the importance?
Read the exchange above. You took a completely benign and non-judgmental statement of fact and, for some reason known only to you, turned it into a ************* in a tea cup.

Why did I post it? Because, as I've already explained twice, your initial post declared that the (Iowa) caucus is not "our" (meaning Republican) voting system when, in fact, it is. If you cannot understand something that simple, then I can't help you. I'm done discussing this with you because it's just not worth it.
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Old 6th February 2020, 01:51 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
nearly 97 percent of precincts have reported their results.

Man this is a tight final quarter.

Pete Buttigieg 550 votes - 26.22%
Bernie Sanders 547 votes - 26.07%

according to Iowa public radio
Still not 100%, but getting close (man, this is taking forever; even doing it all manually, I can't understand why it's still not done).

Here's that link again so folks don't have to go back to previous pages for it:

https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

The above numbers are actually SDEs, not raw votes. Bernie is ahead in the raw votes.
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Old 6th February 2020, 01:53 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The primary system is not perfect, but it's better then a system like the UK were pretty much a few Party big shots make all the decisions.
First off, we don't have a President, and we don't vote for the PM, so there's not really an equivalent.

The voting for leader of the main parties tends to come down to getting support from enough MPs (you are after all supposed to be leading them, so their support is pretty crucial, see Corbyn) then going to the membership.

It's not really down to party big wigs and backroom deals anymore. Hasn't been for several years.
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Old 6th February 2020, 05:44 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
WTF is wrong with Iowans.

turnout wasn't that great at all. Pretty average-above average compared to prior elections since the 2000s.

I hope we aren't in for an ugly surprise in the general.
I'm not ready to ring the "low turnout" alarm bell yet.

Caucuses are by their very design a pain to attend. You have to block off large amounts of time, deal with this rowdy crowd, and make your voting intentions very public. It's practically designed to depress turnout.

I think primaries will be a much better indication of whether or not turnout is depressed. Primaries are much more similar voting conditions to the general election.
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Old 6th February 2020, 06:11 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post

Here's that link again so folks don't have to go back to previous pages for it:



https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/



The above numbers are actually SDEs, not raw votes. Bernie is ahead in the raw votes.
Which is what really matters, just ask President Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But seriously, this is bascially a tie for first, inasmuch as the ultimate metric is pledged delegates to the DNC.
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Old 6th February 2020, 06:44 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
WTF is wrong with Iowans.

turnout wasn't that great at all. Pretty average-above average compared to prior elections since the 2000s.

I hope we aren't in for an ugly surprise in the general.
Only if you think lukewarm turnout is something to be surprised by. I'm not.

"Vote Burnout" is the one thing the fanatics on both sides find impossible to factor in and it most certainly exists.

Not everyone can feed on political drama forever in that way that keeps Twitter and the 24 Hour News Cycle feed.
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Old 6th February 2020, 07:02 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Only if you think lukewarm turnout is something to be surprised by. I'm not.

"Vote Burnout" is the one thing the fanatics on both sides find impossible to factor in and it most certainly exists.

Not everyone can feed on political drama forever in that way that keeps Twitter and the 24 Hour News Cycle feed.
I think one of the more interesting reveals in this election so far is the time when Kamala Harris's staff admitted that they got suckered by twitter. Turns out that the real world is not so fanatic as the internet. Who'd of thunk.
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Old 6th February 2020, 07:40 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Only if you think lukewarm turnout is something to be surprised by. I'm not.

"Vote Burnout" is the one thing the fanatics on both sides find impossible to factor in and it most certainly exists.

Not everyone can feed on political drama forever in that way that keeps Twitter and the 24 Hour News Cycle feed.
I also think (maybe hope?) that democrats will be more motivated to vote against Trump than for any of the current leaders.

The only candidates I would have a hard time voting for would be touchy feely Biden or GOP Bloomberg. So, I may have showed up in Iowa just to make sure Biden didn't do well, or I may have stayed home trusting that Biden wouldn't do well. It's a toss up. But November is not. Maybe that is just me. I hope not.
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Old 6th February 2020, 07:41 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
I think one of the more interesting reveals in this election so far is the time when Kamala Harris's staff admitted that they got suckered by twitter. Turns out that the real world is not so fanatic as the internet. Who'd of thunk.
Were they crying "entrapment"?
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Old 6th February 2020, 10:39 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I also think (maybe hope?) that democrats will be more motivated to vote against Trump than for any of the current leaders.

The only candidates I would have a hard time voting for would be touchy feely Biden or GOP Bloomberg. So, I may have showed up in Iowa just to make sure Biden didn't do well, or I may have stayed home trusting that Biden wouldn't do well. It's a toss up. But November is not. Maybe that is just me. I hope not.
I suppose that could be indicative of the reason for low caucus turnout.

Many Dems (like me) don't really care who gets the nomination because they are voting for them no matter what. So why bother wasting a Tuesday night.
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:20 PM   #216
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"DNC chair calls for a recanvass in Iowa as chaos ensues"

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/polit...lts/index.html
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:28 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I suppose that could be indicative of the reason for low caucus turnout.

Many Dems (like me) don't really care who gets the nomination because they are voting for them no matter what. So why bother wasting a Tuesday night.
And this is the problem with formalized decision making of almost any type, it leaves the people who are obsessed with a particular solution instead of focusing on fixing the problem with an in-proportionate amount of the "voice."

This is something I try to impress upon people. If the nuts and bolts of the decision aren't important to you, you still have to make our voice heard if the outcome is important to you or the decision is going to be made only by people obsessed with how, not the what.

Now I know this is... difficult with how the two political parties play their game, and I doubt this is by accident.
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:39 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I also think (maybe hope?) that democrats will be more motivated to vote against Trump than for any of the current leaders.

The only candidates I would have a hard time voting for would be touchy feely Biden or GOP Bloomberg. So, I may have showed up in Iowa just to make sure Biden didn't do well, or I may have stayed home trusting that Biden wouldn't do well. It's a toss up. But November is not. Maybe that is just me. I hope not.
See, I would've shown up to vote for Biden because he's the most electable candidate in the general election IMO. I think Sanders and Warren have only a 50/50 chance against Trump, and thats if someone like Bloomberg or Howard Schultz doesn't decide to run independently, then its game over, 4 more years of Trump thanks for playing. My actual preferred candidate would be Buttigieg, not sold on his electability though.

But alas New Mexico goes pretty much last, so we have no real choice in the nomination. Although, this year who knows?
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:45 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Still not 100%, but getting close (man, this is taking forever; even doing it all manually, I can't understand why it's still not done).

Here's that link again so folks don't have to go back to previous pages for it:

https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

The above numbers are actually SDEs, not raw votes. Bernie is ahead in the raw votes.
I know Bloomberg didn't expect to do well in Iowa... but 20 votes in the entire state on the final alignment?
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:51 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I know Bloomberg didn't expect to do well in Iowa... but 20 votes in the entire state on the final alignment?
If he was blasting the state like he is Florida that's about 1 vote for every 10,000 commercials.
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:59 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I know Bloomberg didn't expect to do well in Iowa... but 20 votes in the entire state on the final alignment?
Blomberg strategy is to concentrate on a few big states ignoring everything else. Don't know if that is a viable strategy. It has been tried before in the primary season;has never worked.
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Old 6th February 2020, 01:00 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I know Bloomberg didn't expect to do well in Iowa... but 20 votes in the entire state on the final alignment?
Bloomberg wasn't registered in Iowa (Instead, he is saving his resources for some of the bigger primaries later on). So any 'votes' he got there were the equivalent of write-ins. (Not sure how exactly those would be handled in a caucus situation, but given the general screw-ups I suspect it wouldn't be easy.) So its not surprising he got so few votes.

I've also seen at least one pundit claim Iowa might have been good for Bloomberg... he wasn't registered there so his loss is understandable, and after the problems they had, he can step in and say "You need someone who is competent... vote Bloomberg".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/opini...son/index.html
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:05 PM   #223
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Buttigieg and Sanders are basically tied in Iowa with all precincts reporting.

Both men snatching 11 delegates.
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:15 PM   #224
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Perhaps an important outcome of the chaos in Iowa is that people will realize that it's not all that important and in the end is about divvying up all of 41 delegates. Woohoo, Pete and Bernie each got 11. They're in!

How often has the winner of the Iowa democratic caucus actually won the nomination? Iowa got "big" after Jimmy Carter had a surprisingly strong showing. But since then, has it ever propelled anyone anywhere?
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:33 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
How often has the winner of the Iowa democratic caucus actually won the nomination? Iowa got "big" after Jimmy Carter had a surprisingly strong showing. But since then, has it ever propelled anyone anywhere?

For the Democrats, only every year, starting with 1996.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
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Old 6th February 2020, 10:07 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Blomberg strategy is to concentrate on a few big states ignoring everything else. Don't know if that is a viable strategy. It has been tried before in the primary season;has never worked.
I don't think he's concentrating on the big states so much as he's pouring money into states where he can get on the ballot. I seem him on the air pretty regularly in Arizona, and I hardly ever watch TV, so I assume he's carpet-bombing the state.

The London bookies already have him ahead of Biden and Buttigieg, at about 21% to win the nomination.

Right now 538 has "other" (anybody except Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg and Warren) at 1%. That seems low. Steyer's double-digit percentages in four recent polls of South Carolina show what money can buy and Bloomberg has a lot more money than Steyer.
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Old 6th February 2020, 10:55 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Perhaps an important outcome of the chaos in Iowa is that people will realize that it's not all that important and in the end is about divvying up all of 41 delegates. Woohoo, Pete and Bernie each got 11. They're in!

How often has the winner of the Iowa democratic caucus actually won the nomination? Iowa got "big" after Jimmy Carter had a surprisingly strong showing. But since then, has it ever propelled anyone anywhere?
Kerry in '04 and Obama in '08. Clinton won it in '16 but the margin was so narrow that the story became her under-performance.

The real issue is that the media give glowing treatment to the winners and talk about what went wrong for the losers for the next week. And that has a measurable effect on the upcoming contests. Biden dodged the bad news for a few days but his campaign definitely looks like it's taking on water.
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Old 6th February 2020, 11:34 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Blomberg strategy is to concentrate on a few big states ignoring everything else. Don't know if that is a viable strategy. It has been tried before in the primary season;has never worked.
He seems to be in *all* of the later states, really - his strategy seems to be (have Iowa and NH, maybe even SC. After Super Tuesday, every state you go to, I'm already there".

He's one of my bottom-tier candidates, since he's also annoyingly authoritarian, although still better than the idiot currently in the WH.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:22 AM   #229
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DEL

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Old 7th February 2020, 12:49 AM   #230
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Still not 100%, but getting close (man, this is taking forever; even doing it all manually, I can't understand why it's still not done).

Here's that link again so folks don't have to go back to previous pages for it:

https://features.desmoinesregister.c...lts-alignment/

The above numbers are actually SDEs, not raw votes. Bernie is ahead in the raw votes.

Now at 99.9%, a single precinct missing.

Bernie 26.6% raw votes (562 SDE), MayorCheat 25.0% raw votes (564 SDE). Someone should do the math on those last percentages. Bernie must have done stellar there. Stinks to high heaven like delaying specific results so that they can claim that Bernie didn't win for a bit longer.
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Old 7th February 2020, 04:58 AM   #231
Puppycow
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Blomberg strategy is to concentrate on a few big states ignoring everything else. Don't know if that is a viable strategy. It has been tried before in the primary season;has never worked.
I don't know if his strategy is a viable one, but I'm pretty sure it isn't.

Also, there's Tom Steyer. Two billionaires basically trying to buy their way into the conversation.



If we're going to have a billionaire, why can't it be Warren Buffet, or Bill Gates?
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Old 7th February 2020, 07:40 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Buttigieg and Sanders are basically tied in Iowa with all precincts reporting.

Both men snatching 11 delegates.
Only 1,979 more delegates needed for the nomination.
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Old 7th February 2020, 08:08 AM   #233
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Buttigieg is now surging in NH polling:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...new-hampshire/

(Boston Globe's website is paywalled, national review is quoting it)
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Old 7th February 2020, 08:38 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't know if his strategy is a viable one, but I'm pretty sure it isn't.

Also, there's Tom Steyer. Two billionaires basically trying to buy their way into the conversation.



If we're going to have a billionaire, why can't it be Warren Buffet, or Bill Gates?
Because neither of them want the job, obviously. What do you have to offer a guy who has already found their vocation in life, and become independently wealthy pursuing that vocation?

Incidentally, what to make of someone whose vocation is politics, and becomes independently wealthy pursuing it?
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Old 7th February 2020, 09:34 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't know if his strategy is a viable one, but I'm pretty sure it isn't.

Also, there's Tom Steyer. Two billionaires basically trying to buy their way into the conversation.



If we're going to have a billionaire, why can't it be Warren Buffet, or Bill Gates?
I'd take Buffett over Gates, but like most of the other Dems he's too damn old. Even older than I thought, at 89! How about Jimmy Buffett instead?
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Old 7th February 2020, 09:36 AM   #236
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Buttigieg and Sanders are basically tied in Iowa with all precincts reporting.

Both men snatching 11 delegates.
I wonder if Sanders is worried about that at all.

After all, given the dedication of his support base, he should have his greatest strength in caucuses (where time commitments are a significant issue), as opposed to primaries (where it would favor candidates with broader but less dedicated support). And having probably the best name recognition, he should have been a clear winner. Instead, he's almost tied.

(And no, this is not a prediction that Sanders will lose, either the nomination or the general election. Just some idle speculation.)
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Old 7th February 2020, 09:42 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Buttigieg is now surging in NH polling:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...new-hampshire/

(Boston Globe's website is paywalled, national review is quoting it)
In my opinion, that is a very good thing. I would love to have a centrist Dem to vote for who isn't a million years old. I know I am not alone.
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I wonder if Sanders is worried about that at all.

After all, given the dedication of his support base, he should have his greatest strength in caucuses (where time commitments are a significant issue), as opposed to primaries (where it would favor candidates with broader but less dedicated support). And having probably the best name recognition, he should have been a clear winner. Instead, he's almost tied.

(And no, this is not a prediction that Sanders will lose, either the nomination or the general election. Just some idle speculation.)
I doubt Sanders is all that worried. He and Mayor Pete aren't competing with one another yet. If Warren drops out, then maybe Sanders will start eyeing the Buttigeg vote. I also think that Pete almost certainly benefited from being a lot of peoples second choice, which isn't an advantage in the primaries, unless Biden and/or Warren drop out.

Last edited by ahhell; 7th February 2020 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:04 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Now at 99.9%, a single precinct missing.

Bernie 26.6% raw votes (562 SDE), MayorCheat 25.0% raw votes (564 SDE). Someone should do the math on those last percentages. Bernie must have done stellar there. Stinks to high heaven like delaying specific results so that they can claim that Bernie didn't win for a bit longer.

Still missing that one precinct. But https://results.thecaucuses.org/ has 100%. SDE:

MayorCheat: 564.012
Sanders: 562.497

So on top of whatever bizarre mechanism leads to those "SDE" units, there's some very lucky rounding involved to keep the impression that MayorCheat at least won in that category.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:11 AM   #239
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I skimmed the thread and did a search and didn't see this; apologies if it's repeated elsewhere. At least some of the chaos was caused by the tools at 4chan.

4chan trolls tied up caucus hotline to disrupt results reporting

Quote:
Users on a politics-focused section of the fringe 4chan message board repeatedly posted the phone number for the Iowa Democratic Party, which was found by a simple Google search, both as screenshots and in plain text, alongside instructions.

"They have to call in the results now. Very long hold times being reported. Phone line being clogged," one user posted at about 11 p.m. ET on Monday, three hours after the caucuses began.

"Uh oh how unfortunate it would be for a bunch of mischief makers to start clogging the lines," responded another anonymous user, sarcastically.

Some users chimed in, posting alleged wait times on hold, imploring others to “clog the lines [and] make the call lads.”
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:18 AM   #240
d4m10n
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
So on top of whatever bizarre mechanism leads to those "SDE" units, there's some very lucky rounding involved to keep the impression that MayorCheat at least won in that category.
Out of curiosity, do you have a thread going in the relevant subforum wherein you show that Pete cheats?
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