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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 8th February 2020, 08:00 PM   #281
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
Not necessarily. I think 2016 is more likely to inspire such a decision instead of being subject to such a decision. I can't think of any event in the past 50 years that would be more likely to inspire a "candidates had to be long-term members of the party" rule than the 2016 primaries.
While Sanders may have been the most obvious case, there have been other cases. I am thinking about Joe Lieberman, who maintained a democratic membership but also flirted with the republican party. Plus you also have Trump, who prior to his current association with the Republicans, drifted between various Democrats and Reform party causes. And David Duke, who had run in both Democratic and Republican primaries. I could imagine some Democrats being concerned pre-2016 about a party hijack, or at least letting in candidates who could prove to be embarrasing.

ETA: Also, forgot about Lyndon Larouche... who seemed to bounce back and forth between the Democrats and various 3rd parties. Ultimately his 1996 campaign was cut short, in part because the Democrats had a rule about candidates being a registered voter; Larouche, being a felon, would not qualify.

Even if Larouche (or Duke) were not viable contenders, I could imagine the Democrats wanting to set up rules to keep them from causing problems in the primaries. (Including rules about length of party membership)
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Old 8th February 2020, 08:10 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
While Sanders may have been the most obvious case, there have been other cases. I am thinking about Joe Lieberman, who maintained a democratic membership but also flirted with the republican party. Plus you also have Trump, who prior to his current association with the Republicans, drifted between various Democrats and Reform party causes. And David Duke, who had run in both Democratic and Republican primaries. I could imagine some Democrats being concerned pre-2016 about a party hijack, or at least letting in candidates who could prove to be embarrasing.

You also have Trump? I was specifically thinking of Trump--He was in 2016 too, you know. And I am not denying there were previous instances, but I guarantee you can't find one more notable than 2016 Trump in the past 50 years or more.
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Old 8th February 2020, 08:21 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
Quote:
While Sanders may have been the most obvious case, there have been other cases. I am thinking about Joe Lieberman, who maintained a democratic membership but also flirted with the republican party. Plus you also have Trump, who prior to his current association with the Republicans, drifted between various Democrats and Reform party causes.
You also have Trump? I was specifically thinking of Trump--He was in 2016 too, you know. And I am not denying there were previous instances, but I guarantee you can't find one more notable than 2016 Trump in the past 50 years or more.
Sorry, since the discussion had been primarily about Sanders and the feasibility of a rule requiring long-term party membership, I had assumed you were referring to Sanders when you were talking about how "they wouldn't have thought of putting in a rule before 2016".

My reference to Trump was not about his 2016 politics, but about his politics from years ago.
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Old 8th February 2020, 08:25 PM   #284
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In a thread about democratic electoral procedure, we're invoking "Trump happened" as a potentially valid reason for preventing/subverting the will of the voters because of some candidate's lack of declared affiliation for whichever team (despite behaving bluer/redder than most of the blue/red team on most days).

#ThisIsAmerica

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Old 8th February 2020, 09:19 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
My reference to Trump was not about his 2016 politics, but about his politics from years ago.

But he never ran as a major party presidential candidate until 2016.
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Old 8th February 2020, 09:23 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
In a thread about democratic electoral procedure, we're invoking "Trump happened" as a potentially valid reason for preventing/subverting the will of the voters because of some candidate's lack of declared affiliation for whichever team (despite behaving bluer/redder than most of the blue/red team on most days).

#ThisIsAmerica

If you are referring to my posts, I think you misunderstand: I am not supporting "preventing/subverting the will of the voters" in any way whatsoever; it is undeniable, however, that "Trump happened" might inspire certain people in appropriate positions to prevent or subvert the will of the voters. I neither condone nor have any control over that.
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Old 9th February 2020, 10:33 AM   #287
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I see the whole debate about Sanders not being a party man as larger than just him. I see it as a small battle by the centrist dems to resist the growing progressive wing of the party.

You see it with AOC and her battle with party leadership. They are taking moves to make it more difficult for progressive candidates to challenge mainstream dems in primaries. They are blacklisting people who make primary challenges possible and attempting to ostracize AOC for not cooperating in this effort.

You don't see all this hand-wringing about party loyalty when Mike Bloomberg is buying his way into the race. The former Republican was an independent until 2018, for christ's sake. And yet, the D's accept him with open arms. Because they are not threatened by his ideology.

It's not about party loyalty. It's about the centrist wing trying to undermine the growing progressive wing of the party.

Sanders may have been an independent for many years, but he caucused with the Democrats. Outside of his core issues, he voted with Democrats. Leadership even allowed him to take on leadership roles on committees as if he were a party man.

The establishment doesn't hate Bernie because he's an independent. They hate him because he represents the threat of the growing progressive wing.

People like Bernie and AOC are dragging the centrist wing, kicking and screaming, to the left.
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Old 9th February 2020, 11:51 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
People like Bernie and AOC are dragging the centrist wing, kicking and screaming, to the left.
Like, in real life or just on paper?

What bills are the Dems getting passed into law with all this kicking and screaming?
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Old 9th February 2020, 12:06 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
If you are referring to my posts, I think you misunderstand: I am not supporting "preventing/subverting the will of the voters" in any way whatsoever; it is undeniable, however, that "Trump happened" might inspire certain people in appropriate positions to prevent or subvert the will of the voters. I neither condone nor have any control over that.
No, not you specifically. It's a mish-mash of language about non-members "hijacking" a party and discussions about how parties should have control over who appears on the ballot. Draw a thread through those two and it can go bad places.

More of a heading off at the pass than anything.
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Old 9th February 2020, 12:10 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Like, in real life or just on paper?

What bills are the Dems getting passed into law with all this kicking and screaming?
Because the wing that cooperates with passing NDAAs that have implications on domestic freedoms or giving more tax breaks to the mega rich is really making my life better?

What prevents progressive policy becoming law right now is Senate math.
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Old 9th February 2020, 12:26 PM   #291
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“lying, dog-faced pony soldier.” - Biden


lol

https://news.grabien.com/story-biden...g-dog-faced-po
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Old 9th February 2020, 12:30 PM   #292
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Because the wing that cooperates with passing NDAAs that have implications on domestic freedoms or giving more tax breaks to the mega rich is really making my life better?
I don't know anything about what makes your life better. Weird question, IMO.

As to tax cuts, which Dems voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017WP?
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Old 9th February 2020, 12:58 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
“lying, dog-faced pony soldier.” - Biden


lol

https://news.grabien.com/story-biden...g-dog-faced-po
Biden's actual words are converging on his Bad Lip Reading.
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Old 9th February 2020, 01:37 PM   #294
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Anyone have any interesting predictions about NH? I'm thinking Sanders cleans up.
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Old 9th February 2020, 01:39 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Like, in real life or just on paper?

What bills are the Dems getting passed into law with all this kicking and screaming?
Taking over seats via primary challenge is a necessary step towards building up political power.
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Old 9th February 2020, 02:00 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I don't know anything about what makes your life better. Weird question, IMO.

As to tax cuts, which Dems voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017WP?
At quick glance, passed R controlled House despite a few defectors, then party line in the Senate. Could make hay over who voted for cloture motions if I cared to look.

What does that have to do with the progressive wing having ability to enact legislation? The whole party was in minority at that point, so it's a non sequitur to the larger discussion.
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Old 9th February 2020, 02:08 PM   #297
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
What does that have to do with the progressive wing having ability to enact legislation?
I didn't bring that law up, IIRC.

Perhaps soon the Democratic Party will be getting as much legislation through as Corbyn's Labour Party in the UK.
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Old 9th February 2020, 03:00 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I didn't bring that law up, IIRC.

Perhaps soon the Democratic Party will be getting as much legislation through as Corbyn's Labour Party in the UK.
For reasons that have nothing to do with the intra-party issues.
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Old 9th February 2020, 04:02 PM   #299
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It looks like the Iowa numbers will never be correct, but at least this time we will know they aren't correct.

Quote:
But when the party delivers its updated results, which it has promised to do on Monday, they may hardly reassure candidates and voters. Internal emails from Saturday night reveal that the party will not correct even blatant errors in the official handwritten tally sheets from individual precincts.

Those records, known as “caucus math worksheets,” could not be changed even if they contained mistakes, according to the lawyer for the Iowa Democratic Party, because they were a legal record and altering them would be a crime.

“The incorrect math on the Caucus Math Worksheets must not be changed to ensure the integrity of the process,” wrote the party lawyer, Shayla McCormally, according to an email sent by Troy Price, the chairman of the party, to its central committee members. The lawyer said correcting the math would introduce “personal opinion” into the official record of results.
Linky.

But the Iowa Dems are going to be releasing these as the "correct results" on Monday.
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Old 9th February 2020, 04:03 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
“lying, dog-faced pony soldier.” - Biden


lol

https://news.grabien.com/story-biden...g-dog-faced-po
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Biden's actual words are converging on his Bad Lip Reading.
I notice a few headlines are trying to play up the “jokingly”, and explain that it’s a John Wayne quote. That’s Biden! Always at the cutting edge of popular culture. That’s what makes him the most electable candidate.
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Old 9th February 2020, 04:27 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I notice a few headlines are trying to play up the “jokingly”, and explain that it’s a John Wayne quote. That’s Biden! Always at the cutting edge of popular culture. That’s what makes him the most electable candidate.
I've heard that claim, but can't seem to find any reference to Wayne ever actually saying that. Furthermore, it doesn't seem to make sense. "Dogface" was a term frequently used to describe WW2 infantry. But "pony soldier" refers to US cavalry, particularly post Civil War. It seems to be mixing terminology in a way that wouldn't actually make sense for an actual John Wayne movie, unless you're mixing together multiple John Wayne movies.
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Old 9th February 2020, 04:28 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
“lying, dog-faced pony soldier.” - Biden


lol

https://news.grabien.com/story-biden...g-dog-faced-po
I just have to say, on a personal level I really don't like Joe Biden. I think he has a likability problem.
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Old 9th February 2020, 04:32 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
It looks like the Iowa numbers will never be correct, but at least this time we will know they aren't correct.



Linky.

But the Iowa Dems are going to be releasing these are the "correct results" on Monday.
Holy ****** What the hell is wrong with these people???
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Old 9th February 2020, 06:27 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I've heard that claim, but can't seem to find any reference to Wayne ever actually saying that. Furthermore, it doesn't seem to make sense. "Dogface" was a term frequently used to describe WW2 infantry. But "pony soldier" refers to US cavalry, particularly post Civil War. It seems to be mixing terminology in a way that wouldn't actually make sense for an actual John Wayne movie, unless you're mixing together multiple John Wayne movies.
Supposedly it's a quote from a John Wayne movie, but the character who said it was played by someone else. An Indian chief called Wayne's character that. But even that, it seems hard to pin down an exact source for the quote:

https://slate.com/culture/2020/02/jo...one-power.html

Quote:
Later, Biden’s spokespeople said the line was taken from a scene in a John Wayne movie in which a Native American chief refers to Wayne as a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier.” Biden has used the phrase, and attributed it to a John Wayne movie, in the past; at a 2018 campaign event for Heidi Heitkamp, Biden said the following about Heitkamp’s opponent Kevin Cramer:

As my brother who loves to use lines from movies, from John Wayne movies, there’s a line in a movie, a John Wayne movie where an Indian chief turns to John Wayne and says, “This is a lying, dog-faced pony soldier.”
But they couldn't find a movie that exactly matches that description.
Quote:

By far, the most common question raised by Biden’s use of the phrase in New Hampshire has been, “What the hell is Joe Biden thinking calling a young woman ‘dog-faced’?” But running a close second is “Is there really a movie in which someone calls John Wayne a ‘lying, dog-faced pony soldier’?” The answer is a resounding “Maybe”: Wayne appeared in 180 movies over 50 years, and who knows what they called him in all of them? But it seems at least as likely that Biden is thinking of a different film: Pony Soldier, a 1952 western from director Joseph M. Newman starring Tyrone Power as a member of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. “Pony Soldier,” in the context of the film, is a Native American nickname for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and although no one calls Power a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier,” a chief does say, “The pony soldier speaks with a tongue of the snake that rattles,” which isn’t far off:

Is that the scene—filtered through Joe Biden’s memory of his brother’s memory of an old Western—that inspired Joe Biden to call a young woman at one of his events a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier” nearly 70 years later? We may never know, but one thing is certain: For Democrats who want to nominate a presidential candidate with a vast library of half-remembered old Westerns floating around in their brains, there’s only one choice.
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Old 9th February 2020, 06:33 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Supposedly it's a quote from a John Wayne movie, but the character who said it was played by someone else. An Indian chief called Wayne's character that. But even that, it seems hard to pin down an exact source for the quote:

https://slate.com/culture/2020/02/jo...one-power.html

But they couldn't find a movie that exactly matches that description.
'He also told Mayor Pete to 'Stay gold Ponyboy', but the former mayor didn't get the reference because that movie came out when Buttigieg wasn't yet a year old.'
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Old 9th February 2020, 06:33 PM   #306
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This is why I love our media.

When a candidate says, "I will cut your taxes and we'll shrink the national debt," it's boring and not worth checking up on. However, if someone says "lying dog-faced pony soldier", but says he was quoting John Wayne, now THAT is worth investigating!


Pssst. His real name was Marion. So there!


When I saw the headline, I assumed that Biden had simply lost it. He had gone wacko. Then I actually watched the clip, and it seemed more like he was making some sort of joke that only he understood. It was still a little weird, and it fit with some of his other quirks, but it isn't a scandal.

However, I do think he's done. I watched the rest of the speech, and it was, indeed, a bit weird. It was kind of rambling. It was unfocused. And he seems a bit out of it in general. "Lying dog-faced pony soldier" wasn't some horrible, nasty, attack on the woman who asked the question, but it was an obscure reference pulled out of thin air, and showed a lack of connection with the actual moment. I think his campaign is over. Oh, it might continue officially, perhaps for months, but I think his chances of being elected are negligible. Sorry, Joe. You're too old. Don't feel bad. Most people never make it to Vice President, but you aren't going any farther.
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Old 9th February 2020, 06:56 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
"Lying dog-faced pony soldier" wasn't some horrible, nasty, attack on the woman who asked the question, but it was an obscure reference pulled out of thin air, and showed a lack of connection with the actual moment.
That’s a bunch of malarkey. Biden is the bees’ knees.
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Old 9th February 2020, 07:22 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Anyone have any interesting predictions about NH? I'm thinking Sanders cleans up.
Sanders will win more NH delegates than any other candidate.

A majority of NH voters will vote for candidates that are not Sanders.
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Old 9th February 2020, 07:44 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
It looks like the Iowa numbers will never be correct, but at least this time we will know they aren't correct.



Linky.

But the Iowa Dems are going to be releasing these as the "correct results" on Monday.
Caucus are run by humans. Humans often suck at following directions and doing math.

With 1,700 precinct caucuses I would expect to find a fair number of mistakes and inconsistencies. Some of these would result in the delegate allocation to the county convention being off but probably not by more than one. The cumulative effect of all the errors is unlikely to have shifted the results at the national delegate level.
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Old 9th February 2020, 07:57 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
It looks like the Iowa numbers will never be correct, but at least this time we will know they aren't correct.



Linky.

But the Iowa Dems are going to be releasing these as the "correct results" on Monday.


Noooooooooooooooooooo!!!

Seriously, let's move on. Or talk about it for the next ten days. Who cares?
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Old 9th February 2020, 08:23 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
This is why I love our media.

When a candidate says, "I will cut your taxes and we'll shrink the national debt," it's boring and not worth checking up on. However, if someone says "lying dog-faced pony soldier", but says he was quoting John Wayne, now THAT is worth investigating!


Pssst. His real name was Marion. So there!


When I saw the headline, I assumed that Biden had simply lost it. He had gone wacko. Then I actually watched the clip, and it seemed more like he was making some sort of joke that only he understood. It was still a little weird, and it fit with some of his other quirks, but it isn't a scandal.

However, I do think he's done. I watched the rest of the speech, and it was, indeed, a bit weird. It was kind of rambling. It was unfocused. And he seems a bit out of it in general. "Lying dog-faced pony soldier" wasn't some horrible, nasty, attack on the woman who asked the question, but it was an obscure reference pulled out of thin air, and showed a lack of connection with the actual moment. I think his campaign is over. Oh, it might continue officially, perhaps for months, but I think his chances of being elected are negligible. Sorry, Joe. You're too old. Don't feel bad. Most people never make it to Vice President, but you aren't going any farther.
I think when you need a campaign spokesman to try to translate your words into contemporary English, and still no one can agree what you meant, you are out of touch.

As eminently electable as people keep saying Biden is, he has some serious communication issues when his deep cut references to the 1950s are expected to be understood by People in their twenties.
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Old 9th February 2020, 08:37 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
This is why I love our media.

When a candidate says, "I will cut your taxes and we'll shrink the national debt," it's boring and not worth checking up on. However, if someone says "lying dog-faced pony soldier", but says he was quoting John Wayne, now THAT is worth investigating!


Pssst. His real name was Marion. So there!


When I saw the headline, I assumed that Biden had simply lost it. He had gone wacko. Then I actually watched the clip, and it seemed more like he was making some sort of joke that only he understood. It was still a little weird, and it fit with some of his other quirks, but it isn't a scandal.

However, I do think he's done. I watched the rest of the speech, and it was, indeed, a bit weird. It was kind of rambling. It was unfocused. And he seems a bit out of it in general. "Lying dog-faced pony soldier" wasn't some horrible, nasty, attack on the woman who asked the question, but it was an obscure reference pulled out of thin air, and showed a lack of connection with the actual moment. I think his campaign is over. Oh, it might continue officially, perhaps for months, but I think his chances of being elected are negligible. Sorry, Joe. You're too old. Don't feel bad. Most people never make it to Vice President, but you aren't going any farther.
I don't know if he's done. But it seems like he's going through the motions. There doesn't seem to be the energy and passion required.
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Old 10th February 2020, 06:55 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by Kestrel View Post
Sanders will win more NH delegates than any other candidate.

A majority of NH voters will vote for candidates that are not Sanders.
That sounds about right to me, based on recent polling. Looks like the moderate left-of-center vote is being split amongst at least three candidates.

If Biden underperforms again, he won't have the media frenzy around caucus process to bail him out this time around.

If Buttigieg overperforms again, he may surge enough nationwide to make Nevada more interesting.
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Old 10th February 2020, 07:25 AM   #314
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Old 10th February 2020, 07:25 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by Kestrel View Post
Sanders will win more NH delegates than any other candidate.

A majority of NH voters will vote for candidates that are not Sanders.
Good news for Sanders, that's basically how we got Trump.
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Old 10th February 2020, 07:31 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
It looks like the Iowa numbers will never be correct, but at least this time we will know they aren't correct.



Linky.

But the Iowa Dems are going to be releasing these as the "correct results" on Monday.
Another good reason to ditch caucuses. This failure has nothing to do with a crappy app.

The underlying difficulty of a caucus is that it requires a large number of volunteers to run the various precincts and assumes that these all of these people will understand the rules, administer them correctly, and make accurate counts and calculations.
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Old 10th February 2020, 10:16 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Another good reason to ditch caucuses. This failure has nothing to do with a crappy app.

The underlying difficulty of a caucus is that it requires a large number of volunteers to run the various precincts and assumes that these all of these people will understand the rules, administer them correctly, and make accurate counts and calculations.
It really doesn't. I've been involved in holding an running caucuses in Washington State for 20 years. They are in fact easy to run. One can argue that they aren't as democratic as primaries. But the worst argument against them is that they are somehow too difficult.
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Old 10th February 2020, 10:25 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
One can argue that they aren't as democratic as primaries.
Not really, because in order to do so, you have to come up with a clear definition of "democratic," and that just isn't possible.

Martin Gardner used to write a lot about this. In a multi-person run off, there is no inherently "correct" way to select the winner
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Old 10th February 2020, 02:06 PM   #319
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Sanders and Buttigieg campaigns ask for partial recanvass of Iowa caucuses results

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/10/polit...ass/index.html

At this rate we'll have to wait until 2021 to find out who lost to Trump.
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Old 10th February 2020, 04:20 PM   #320
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Not really, because in order to do so, you have to come up with a clear definition of "democratic," and that just isn't possible.
I mean, the participation rates are abysmal compared to, say, voting in person.
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