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Tags 2020 elections , Bernie Sanders , presidential candidates

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Old 21st February 2020, 05:49 AM   #241
The Great Zaganza
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I do think that, as things look now, it is much safer for the Party to nominate Sanders, even if he loses;
or, if you are part of the DNC insiders, it might even be a best-case scenario for Sanders to lose against Trump.
Much, much better than having anyone else lose in November.
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Old 21st February 2020, 06:03 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Nevada will hopefully put this silly thing to rest. This isn't 2016. Bernie has broad support this time around.
Oh, there you go banging on about your "Lost TRibe" again!
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Old 21st February 2020, 11:48 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by BrooklynBaby View Post
I thought about it for a while, and I've never known anyone who got too sick to continue working. But, if that did happen I would just go on my wife's insurance. Certainly if that did happen to anyone it would be a major problem, but we don't need "Medicare For All" to solve that problem. I know in Dallas anyone in the area can go to Parkland for treatment, and they provide a billion dollars a year in uncompensated healthcare. (A third of their operating expenses are paid for by property taxes.) I actually saw my father-in-law throw a 35K bill from Parkland in the trash because there was no way he was going to ever be able to pay it. It was just a small part of the billion for that year.
Good on you for thinking about it. You realize that you, as a ratepayer/taxpayer, are subsidizing that billion dollars a year?
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Old 21st February 2020, 11:58 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is why every scenario for a Sanders victory in November ,though his supporters deny it, rests on the "Lost Tribe" school of politics..there is a huge lost tribe of Left wing voters who will come out of hiding for the right candidate.
"Lost tribes" are not a complete fiction. Trump's victory may be an example. I'm curious if he drew people to the polls who had a spotty voting record. Will research. Millenials and younger might turn out for Sanders. He is not my preferred candidate, but he certainly has a fired-up base.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:07 PM   #245
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Is Trump attracting people who usually don't vote?

From Quora. The answers don't really support the theory. Still, elections have so many moving parts it's difficult to quantify all the variables.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:50 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Nevada will hopefully put this silly thing to rest. This isn't 2016. Bernie has broad support this time around.
You think he'll pull more than half the votes or delegates from NV?
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:15 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
"Lost tribes" are not a complete fiction. Trump's victory may be an example. I'm curious if he drew people to the polls who had a spotty voting record. Will research. Millenials and younger might turn out for Sanders. He is not my preferred candidate, but he certainly has a fired-up base.
Keep in mind that Trump actually got a smaller percentage of the vote when he won in 2016 (46%) than Mitt Romney did when Mitt lost in 2012 (47%). (He may have gotten more votes overall, but then the population had also grown over time.)

It doesn't look like Trump won by bringing in "lost tribes"... it looks like he got into power by having Clinton's vote suppressed.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:54 PM   #248
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He got into power because Hillary was lazy and made assumptions.
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Old 21st February 2020, 03:16 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
You think he'll pull more than half the votes or delegates from NV?
No, of course not. Is there some reason why you think a majority necessary? If polling is predictive, he will leave with a large first place finish over his competitors.

I think Sanders will get a large enough vote % that it should be clear to anyone that his support is larger than any "Lost Tribe" or "Bernie Bro" base could ever support.
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Old 21st February 2020, 03:21 PM   #250
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The Bernie Bro culture has the zeal typical of all new religious or political movements.

But it's not a large majority of Sanders voters. In fact, polls showing that only 53+ percent of Sanders voters would consider voting for the eventual nominee (or was it another candidate) might mean Sanders has the support of people who otherwise wouldn't vote Democrat or vote at all. There's your lost tribe, if you can call it that. The only thing missing is the rest of the Democrats getting behind Sanders. He's so clearly ahead of everyone but Biden it's amazing people in the mainstream aren't hammering this point harder.
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Old 21st February 2020, 03:51 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The Bernie Bro culture has the zeal typical of all new religious or political movements.

But it's not a large majority of Sanders voters. In fact, polls showing that only 53+ percent of Sanders voters would consider voting for the eventual nominee
Not exactly...

If I remember correctly, 53% of Sanders supporters would definitely still vote democrat, regardless of the person. Others said they might, vote democrat, but it would depend on who won the nomination.

Still it does show the type of fan-base that he has. (By contrast, ~90% Warren/Biden said they would vote Democrat, regardless of who the nominee is.)
Quote:
...might mean Sanders has the support of people who otherwise wouldn't vote Democrat or vote at all. There's your lost tribe, if you can call it that.
I'm not sure if that counts as a 'lost tribe'. After all, those current Sanders supporters are a known quantity.

The 'lost tribe' would be a mass of unknown voters who currently aren't BernieBros, or probably not even affiliated with the Democrats at all.

Quote:
The only thing missing is the rest of the Democrats getting behind Sanders.
And if you happen to be a moderate democrat who doesn't particularly like his "medicare for all" plan?
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Old 21st February 2020, 03:57 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
And if you happen to be a moderate democrat who doesn't particularly like his "medicare for all" plan?
Vote for the guy who tried to overturn the ACA.

I'm not a big fan of medicare for all, but I am less of a fan of going back to who we had before the ACA. I don't know what Bernie can get done, but I do know what Trump can get done.

Note: I will likely vote for Warren in the primaries.
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Old 21st February 2020, 04:57 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
And if you happen to be a moderate democrat who doesn't particularly like his "medicare for all" plan?
If you were a moderate Democrat you'd have to believe that checks and balances is still a thing right? Fight it out in the Congress.
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Old 22nd February 2020, 08:03 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
No, of course not. Is there some reason why you think a majority necessary?
Not particularly, I just wondered what you really meant by "broad support" and "put this silly thing to rest."

I'd've expected you meant something more than yet another ~1/3 plurality.
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Old 22nd February 2020, 08:26 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The only thing missing is the rest of the Democrats getting behind Sanders. He's so clearly ahead of everyone but Biden it's amazing people in the mainstream aren't hammering this point harder.
The same thing could have been said of Biden prior to Iowa. The process of consolidation behind a candidate is the purpose of the primaries.

Personally, I'm just happy it's extremely unlikely to be Biden or Bloomberg. I still think Warren is the sharpest candidate with the best policies, but if it's gotta be a grandpa I'll take Angry Grandpa over Forgetful Grandpa or Moneybags Grandpa.
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Old 22nd February 2020, 11:13 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
I've shown you evidence for a Sanders victory that does not depend on some "Lost Tribe".

Why you persist in preserving your ignorance on this point simply remains a mystery to me.
A lot of people can't grasp the idea that a significant number of swing voters aren't in the center of the political spectrum. What Hunter Thompson called the "******* The Bosses" vote when polls in 1968 indicated strong support for Bobby Kennedy with George Wallace voters and vice-versa.

It isn't a lost tribe. They just don't see it.
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Old 23rd February 2020, 03:14 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
"Lost tribes" are not a complete fiction. Trump's victory may be an example. I'm curious if he drew people to the polls who had a spotty voting record. Will research. Millenials and younger might turn out for Sanders. He is not my preferred candidate, but he certainly has a fired-up base.
13th tribe of Israel? Haven’t heard of that for awhile. Think there are plenty of cacausian men gonna vote for Bernie. I just hope the women do too

I fear that Bloomberg could win it. Going to vote for Bernie though
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Old 23rd February 2020, 08:21 PM   #258
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Could Marianne Williamson be Sanders' running mate? I doubt it, but she might be in the hat. I suspect Sanders will pick a 40-something VP. But it's an interesting thought.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/polit...020/index.html
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Old 23rd February 2020, 09:29 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Could Marianne Williamson be Sanders' running mate? I doubt it, but she might be in the hat. I suspect Sanders will pick a 40-something VP. But it's an interesting thought.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/polit...020/index.html
Not a chance in hell. She'd be his Sarah Palin.
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Old 23rd February 2020, 10:33 PM   #260
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Julian Castro.
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Old 24th February 2020, 04:17 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Could Marianne Williamson be Sanders' running mate? I doubt it, but she might be in the hat. I suspect Sanders will pick a 40-something VP. But it's an interesting thought.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/polit...020/index.html

Nina Turner!

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Old 24th February 2020, 05:10 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Nina Turner!

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When picking a running mate you don't need to persuade the people who are already going to vote for you.

At least that is the idea of "balancing the ticket", where you try to find someone who might be nervous about Bernie Sanders and choose someone who might be more "moderate" or "establishment" or perhaps Southern, etc...
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Old 24th February 2020, 05:11 AM   #263
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Stacey Abrams seems to be the perfect choice to assure the critical Back Women vote.
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Old 24th February 2020, 06:00 AM   #264
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Old 24th February 2020, 08:52 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
When picking a running mate you don't need to persuade the people who are already going to vote for you.

At least that is the idea of "balancing the ticket", where you try to find someone who might be nervous about Bernie Sanders and choose someone who might be more "moderate" or "establishment" or perhaps Southern, etc...

You are right, that does seem to be the general idea. I guess that's why Trump chose a veep with Democratic Socialist leanings to balance his own brand of right-wing Republicanism.

For some reason, it appears to be logical to right-wingers that the right-wing candidate is always the best choice: as presidential candidate, as vice-presidential candidate etc. In fact, it appears to be as logical as calling all right-wingers moderates.

That is how you persuade anybody to vote for you: Go right-wing moderate! Don't ever vote for a candidate who promises what the majority of working people want - like Sanders and Turner! That's full-blown Stalinism! Health care for everybody, free education, a wage that enables you to live at least a modest life, gun control, gender equality, an end to racial discrimination ... you name it. Stalinism - pure and simple!
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:11 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
When picking a running mate you don't need to persuade the people who are already going to vote for you.

At least that is the idea of "balancing the ticket", where you try to find someone who might be nervous about Bernie Sanders and choose someone who might be more "moderate" or "establishment" or perhaps Southern, etc...
That's the conventional wisdom, but with Sanders age and health scare, it might be better to have someone closer to him ideologically. It would be a shame for the Sanders agenda to get derailed by some non-progressive VP that has to assume the office.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:11 AM   #267
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Quote:
At least that is the idea of "balancing the ticket", where you try to find someone who might be nervous about Bernie Sanders and choose someone who might be more "moderate" or "establishment" or perhaps Southern, etc...
You are right, that does seem to be the general idea. I guess that's why Trump chose a veep with Democratic Socialist leanings to balance his own brand of right-wing Republicanism.
That's the thing though.... When you compare Trump to other Republicans, in many ways he IS the moderate one (or at least that was the way he tried to package himself in 2016).

He wasn't talking about privatizing social security, and he claimed he would "protect" gay rights. He claims he was against the Iraq war. He said that he knew taxes well enough to close loopholes that rich people used. And while he was against Obamacare, he said he would replace it with something 'better'. And the idea of a protectionist republican is almost unheard of (since they tend to be more free-traders). Yes, we know that pretty much everything was a lie, but he was still closer to the political center than the majority of Republicans.

Now, there is the issue of racism.... but remember, this is the republican party that had eagerly accepted gerrymandering and Voter ID laws as a way to disenfranchise minorities for years. In many ways, Trump isn't necessarily more racist than many in the GOP; he's just doesn't have the ability to know when to say things out loud and when to keep things in your head.

So it wasn't a case of a right wing Trump picking a right wing Pence as a running mate, it was a moderate Trump picking a right-wing pence to shore up the far-right supporters.

Now, I don't want anyone to think I actually support Trump... I think he is incompetent, a racist, and completely untrustworthy. I'm just pointing out that his position on the political spectrum was not any more extreme than other republicans.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:25 AM   #268
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He not only ran a far more politically populist campaign than what he's turned out to be in office, but also, aside from policy, consider religion: hadn't ever acted much like Christians think Christians are supposed to act, and picked a religious extremist VP.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:25 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
That's the conventional wisdom, but with Sanders age and health scare, it might be better to have someone closer to him ideologically. It would be a shame for the Sanders agenda to get derailed by some non-progressive VP that has to assume the office.
You really think the Dems have a shot if they go with the most progressive ticket since the Great Depression? I'm just not seeing it, given the current state of the economy.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:27 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
You really think the Dems have a shot if they go with the most progressive ticket since the Great Depression? I'm just not seeing it, given the current state of the economy.
I think there is tremendous anti-establishment, populist energy in the country right now. The Democratic party must have an answer for it, because creeping fascism of the right is the other alternative.

New Deal style progressives seems like a good response to me that can resonate.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:35 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I think there is tremendous anti-establishment, populist energy in the country right now. The Democratic party must have an answer for it, because creeping fascism of the right is the other alternative.
This seems to suggest there are two distinct forms of populist energy crackling in the electorate right now. It's difficult to imagine that the folks chanting about building a wall and making Mexico pay for it are coming from the same place as those who want to build a fully socialized health insurance system and have the millionaires and billionaires pay for it.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:39 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
This seems to suggest there are two distinct forms of populist energy crackling in the electorate right now. It's difficult to imagine that the folks chanting about building a wall and making Mexico pay for it are coming from the same place as those who want to build a fully socialized health insurance system and have the millionaires and billionaires pay for it.
Not all Trump voters are MAGA CHUDS. Trump made a lot of promises in his first campaign that weren't strictly xenophobic garbage. Lots of promises of blue collar jobs returning to the US. Promises to protect the working class and stand up against the DC elite.

The Democratic party doesn't have to woo red-hats to win.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:39 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I think there is tremendous anti-establishment, populist energy in the country right now.
But that's the problem.

Bernie is trying to sell two different narratives right now.

Running on the "Establishment is broken" narrative is fine but you can't do that when what you are campaigning for the top position in that establishment.

Bernie's declaring the DNC fouled up in the same breath he's demanding a percentage of its fouled-up-ed-ness.

Again this is Bernie's biggest problem. He's playing a "Hey DNC why are you nominating me so I can fix everything that's wrong with you?" game.

Bernie's knocking on the door of the house demanding to be let in so he can tell us all how bad our taste in furniture is.

Him not having the red carpet rolled out for him should not be shocking anyone.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:42 AM   #274
SuburbanTurkey
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
But that's the problem.

Bernie is trying to sell two different narratives right now.

Running on the "Establishment is broken" narrative is fine but you can't do that when what you are campaigning for the top position in that establishment.

Bernie's declaring the DNC fouled up in the same breath he's demanding a percentage of its fouled-up-ed-ness.

Again this is Bernie's biggest problem. He's playing a "Hey DNC why are you nominating me so I can fix everything that's wrong with you?" game.

Bernie's knocking on the door of the house demanding to be let in so he can tell us all how bad our taste in furniture is.

Him not having the red carpet rolled out for him should not be shocking anyone.
Bernie is running as a reformer. I don't even understand this criticism. He's not running as a "burn it down" revolutionary. He wants to use the processes of the state to make changes.

He is participating in a system with the goal of changing the way that system operates. I see nothing untoward about this. This is how radical reforms have often happened in this country.

I don't expect the establishment types to accept him with open arms. I just expect them to accept that they don't have the power they once did, and that legitimacy comes from the voters, not from the elites.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:43 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Bernie is running as a reformer. I don't even understand this criticism. He's not running as a "burn it down" revolutionary. He wants to use the processes of the state to make changes
To you he's not because you adore him.

Not everybody is seeing it this way.

ETA: And you cannot square this with the undeniable fact that Bernie is only a Democrat when he feels like it. He's been a Democrat for less then a decade of his very long career. That's a fair weather friend no matter how you try to spin it.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:48 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Bernie is running as a reformer. I don't even understand this criticism. He's not running as a "burn it down" revolutionary. He wants to use the processes of the state to make changes.
You run in the Overton Window you have, not the Overton Window you wish to have or plan to have at a later date. Sanders may be an unreconstructed collectivist-statist at heart, but he can't win in America, and he can't govern in America, if he if he goes Full International Socialist from the start. His goal is to give the Overton Window in the US a good hard leftward yank, not to bring the Revolution on day one.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:53 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
To you he's not because you adore him.

Not everybody is seeing it this way.

ETA: And you cannot square this with the undeniable fact that Bernie is only a Democrat when he feels like it. He's been a Democrat for less then a decade of his very long career. That's a fair weather friend no matter how you try to spin it.
Enh. In a world where everyone to the right of a moderate progressive is a fascist or in league with fascists, and ultimately either takes their marching orders from the GOP or uses the GOP for cover... I'm okay with expanding the definition of Democrat leftward to encompass people like Bernie and beyond.

On the other hand, Bernie, Bloomberg, and Trump all seem to take party affiliation as a cynical convenience, rather than an expression of ideological inclination.
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Old 24th February 2020, 09:59 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Bernie, Bloomberg, and Trump all seem to take party affiliation as a cynical convenience, rather than an expression of ideological inclination.
Which is, my own personal opinion (and yours to be very, very clear) about any of those three men and their practical applications of said philosophy not withstanding and put very firmly to the side, at least conceptually noble. People in leadership positions should use political parties as tools, not straight jackets.

But you can't demand more loyalty from the party then you are giving it and again someone who's only "loyal to the party" (loaded as that term my be) when he decides he wants to run for an office outside the state of Vermont is doing just that.
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Old 24th February 2020, 10:00 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
That's the thing though.... When you compare Trump to other Republicans, in many ways he IS the moderate one (or at least that was the way he tried to package himself in 2016).

Yes, that's the way that so-called moderates have managed to make everything that's not outright fascist appear to be moderate.

Quote:
He wasn't talking about privatizing social security, and he claimed he would "protect" gay rights. He claims he was against the Iraq war. He said that he knew taxes well enough to close loopholes that rich people used. And while he was against Obamacare, he said he would replace it with something 'better'. And the idea of a protectionist republican is almost unheard of (since they tend to be more free-traders). Yes, we know that pretty much everything was a lie, but he was still closer to the political center than the majority of Republicans.

So even in 2016, anti-establishment ideas appealed to voters, but nowadays the candidate who doesn't want to privatize social security, who wants to protect gay rights, who's obviously not a warmonger, wants rich people to pay taxes, wants health care for everybody is too left-wing for American voters? He is not close to the police center, which you claim that Trump used to be? (In spite of all the people warning against Trump in 2016! Did anybody actually fear that Trump was too far left-wing and therefore needed to be 'balanced' by the right-wing Pence?!)

Quote:
Now, there is the issue of racism.... but remember, this is the republican party that had eagerly accepted gerrymandering and Voter ID laws as a way to disenfranchise minorities for years. In many ways, Trump isn't necessarily more racist than many in the GOP; he's just doesn't have the ability to know when to say things out loud and when to keep things in your head.

So now Trump appealed to Republicans by being openly fascist, by being honest about the latent fascism of the Republican Party. I wouldn't describe that as moderate. And Pence was supposed to counterbalance this .... how exactly?

Quote:
So it wasn't a case of a right wing Trump picking a right wing Pence as a running mate, it was a moderate Trump picking a right-wing pence to shore up the far-right supporters.

No, it was a case of a right-wing, obviously amoral Trump picking a right-wing Christian hypocrite, and as such they managed to shore up the far-right supporters - and a few voters who were disillusioned by the co-called moderate Democrats like the Clintons (if they didn't choose to stay home because both candidates represented corporate America and its oligarchs).

Quote:
Now, I don't want anyone to think I actually support Trump... I think he is incompetent, a racist, and completely untrustworthy. I'm just pointing out that his position on the political spectrum was not any more extreme than other republicans.

You are right about Republicans being extreme, which is why actually moderate Americans seem to be backing the actually moderate Sanders.
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Old 24th February 2020, 10:11 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
To you he's not because you adore him.

Not everybody is seeing it this way.

ETA: And you cannot square this with the undeniable fact that Bernie is only a Democrat when he feels like it. He's been a Democrat for less then a decade of his very long career. That's a fair weather friend no matter how you try to spin it.
Party loyalty is overrated. Bernie has been steadfastly loyal to his principles, and for that reason, voters respect him.

Party leadership hates that Bernie hasn't been easy to cow and made to toe the party line. I don't see this as a negative. There's a lot of rot in the Democratic machine.
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