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Tags 2020 elections , political predictions , political speculation , prediction thread , vice presidential choices

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Old 5th March 2020, 04:42 PM   #81
dudalb
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Is Julia Louis Dreyfus available?
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Old 5th March 2020, 04:45 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
"A horse is a horse, of course, of course"


WIILLLLBBURR
What's sad is I can sing the theme song from memory. God...when did I turn into my mother?
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Old 5th March 2020, 04:47 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The laws on US Citizenship are quite clear;If one of your parents is a legal US Citizen, you are a natural born US Citizen regardless of where you were born.
The Natural BOrn kerfulfle is over somebody who is born in the US but whose citizens are NOT US Citizens. The COnsitutiion is vague on that point.
You got that the wrong way round. If you’re born on US soil then it is clear; if you are born abroad then it can get more complicated.
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Old 5th March 2020, 05:24 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
They would make a great and dynamic team, get this country moving again in the right direction. It may be a long shot but remember, they laughed when Donald Trump announced his candidacy. I like Ed's odds.
For men of a certain age, putting them next to big giant letters that spell ED has a very specific meaning. Now take a look at that photo again.
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Old 5th March 2020, 07:36 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by DuvalHMFIC View Post
VP is tricky. I can't really recall anyone ever placing their vote based on who the VP was. However, I know people can be turned OFF by a VP. Palin certainly comes to mind.
VP candidates do tend to affect the vote positively for the ticket in their home states. Look at the last election, for example. In indiana, where VP Pence hailed from, the Republican ticket won by 19 percentage points, 21 percentage points better than they did nationally. In 2012, Indiana was only 14 percentage points more Republican than the nation. So you could argue that Pence added 7% to Trump's margin of victory in that state.

Do the same for Tim Kaine. In 2016, Virginia was 3 percentage points more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket than the nation did. In 2012? Virginia went for Obama by 4 percentage points, the same as the country did. So Kaine netted an extra 3 percentage points for Clinton in the Old Dominion.

Now you can quibble a bit about how meaningful a few elections are, but I did this for all the non-sitting VP candidates since 2000; in addtion to Pence and Kaine that's Ryan in 2012, Palin and Biden in 2008, Edwards in 2004 and Cheney and Lieberman in 2000. Every single one of them came up as improving their party's fortune in their home state as compared to the prior election, on average by about 7 percentage points.
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Old 5th March 2020, 08:50 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
VP candidates do tend to affect the vote positively for the ticket in their home states. Look at the last election, for example. In indiana, where VP Pence hailed from, the Republican ticket won by 19 percentage points, 21 percentage points better than they did nationally. In 2012, Indiana was only 14 percentage points more Republican than the nation. So you could argue that Pence added 7% to Trump's margin of victory in that state.

Do the same for Tim Kaine. In 2016, Virginia was 3 percentage points more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket than the nation did. In 2012? Virginia went for Obama by 4 percentage points, the same as the country did. So Kaine netted an extra 3 percentage points for Clinton in the Old Dominion.

Now you can quibble a bit about how meaningful a few elections are, but I did this for all the non-sitting VP candidates since 2000; in addtion to Pence and Kaine that's Ryan in 2012, Palin and Biden in 2008, Edwards in 2004 and Cheney and Lieberman in 2000. Every single one of them came up as improving their party's fortune in their home state as compared to the prior election, on average by about 7 percentage points.
Maybe Andrew Gillum could be a good pick for either Biden or Sanders. He would bring in some progressive cred for Biden, would probably be on board for Sanders’s Medicare for all, brings some diversity and may boost the chances of either one in Florida.

Or, maybe Beto could come back and put Texas in play.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 5th March 2020, 10:14 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post



Or, maybe Beto could come back and put Texas in play.
I've thought of that. But Biden/Beto gives you two white Catholic men. Not gonna happen .
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Old 6th March 2020, 11:28 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I've thought of that. But Biden/Beto gives you two white Catholic men. Not gonna happen .
Julian Castro solves one third of that problem.

ETA: Based on Brainsters analysis, you really don't want to waste that extra vote on a state you are already going to carry.
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Old 6th March 2020, 11:38 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Julian Castro solves one third of that problem.

ETA: Based on Brainsters analysis, you really don't want to waste that extra vote on a state you are already going to carry.
Castro also endorsed Warren so that could be a problem.
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Old 6th March 2020, 11:44 AM   #90
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I was thinking that if Biden picks an Obama for VP, I would love to see Trumps reaction!
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Old 6th March 2020, 11:46 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Castro also endorsed Warren so that could be a problem.
Yeah.

Do you think Warren is holding her endorsement in hopes of a VP? That seems like a long shot.
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Old 6th March 2020, 11:55 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Yeah.

Do you think Warren is holding her endorsement in hopes of a VP? That seems like a long shot.
I doubt a VP because it's such a long shot. Maybe a cabinet post, though.
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Old 6th March 2020, 12:53 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by wasapi View Post
I was thinking that if Biden picks an Obama for VP, I would love to see Trumps reaction!
Michelle Obama could make just one phone call if she wanted the job.
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Old 6th March 2020, 12:59 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Michelle Obama could make just one phone call if she wanted the job.
I bet she and Barry regularly prank call Biden. They phone him up and yell "Malarkey!" then hang up, giggling.
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Old 6th March 2020, 01:01 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I bet she and Barry regularly prank call Biden. They phone him up and yell "Malarkey!" then hang up, giggling.
I think the biggest drawback to Biden having Michelle O' as V.P. is that he would constantly be referring to her as Oprah.
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Old 6th March 2020, 01:11 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I think the biggest drawback to Biden having Michelle O' as V.P. is that he would constantly be referring to her as Oprah.
And creeping on her in public.
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Old 6th March 2020, 01:41 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Yeah.

Do you think Warren is holding her endorsement in hopes of a VP? That seems like a long shot.
No. Cabinet, yes.
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Old 6th March 2020, 01:45 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And creeping on her in public.
That is my fear for any female VP with Biden.
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Old 6th March 2020, 01:48 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And creeping on her in public.
I can see the "sleepy Joe" , it is apparent he is experiencing decrepitude.
Don't see the "creepy Joe" thing though. That seems much more of a manufactured meme to me.
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Old 6th March 2020, 02:03 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And creeping on her in public.
At least he wouldn't be grabbing her kitty kat.
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Old 7th March 2020, 11:30 AM   #101
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Sherrod Brown?
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Old 7th March 2020, 11:59 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
At least he wouldn't be grabbing her kitty kat.
OLOL. You still believe that empty boast described real events? When have Trump's claims of success ever described any real success?

Meanwhile Biden's creepiness has video documentation.
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Old 7th March 2020, 01:36 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
OLOL. You still believe that empty boast described real events? When have Trump's claims of success ever described any real success?

Meanwhile Biden's creepiness has video documentation.
Wow. Whom to believe? A proven adulterous, pathological liar or the women who have accused of him of doing exactly that? Tough choice!

Karen Johnson:
Quote:
“When he says that thing, ‘Grab them in the pussy,’ that hits me hard because when he grabbed me and pulled me into the tapestry, that’s where he grabbed me ― he grabbed me there in my front and pulled me in,” Johnson told Levine and El-Faizy.
Ninni Laaksonen
Quote:
“Trump stood right next to me and suddenly he squeezed my butt,” she told Ilta-Sanomat. “He really grabbed my butt. I don’t think anybody saw it but I flinched and thought: ‘What is happening?’”
Kristin Anderson:
Quote:
Anderson says she was out at a Manhattan nightclub with friends, sitting on a red velvet couch, when she felt Trump reach into her skirt and touch her vagina through her underwear, The Washington Post reports. She told the paper that the incident was brief, but that she and her friends were “very grossed out.” Anderson was in her early 20s at the time, and an aspiring model.
Jessica Leeds:
Quote:
Trump spoke for a bit, then about 45 minutes into the flight he lifted the armrest between them and began to grab her breasts and put his hand up her skirt. “He was like an octopus,” she told The New York Times. “His hands were everywhere.”
Jill Harth:
Quote:
Trump repeatedly sexually harassed her, at one point groping her under the table.
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Old 15th March 2020, 07:46 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Maybe Andrew Gillum could be a good pick for either Biden or Sanders. He would bring in some progressive cred for Biden, would probably be on board for Sanders’s Medicare for all, brings some diversity and may boost the chances of either one in Florida.
I think we can cross Gillum off the list.

Quote:
Andrew Gillum said he would withdraw from public life, closing a chapter in his career that took him from the peak of Florida power to a Miami Beach hotel room where he was found inebriated with a man suspected of overdosing on crystal meth.

“This has been a wake-up call for me,” the former Tallahassee mayor said in a written statement Sunday. “Since my race for governor ended, I fell into a depression that has led to alcohol abuse. I witnessed my father suffer from alcoholism and I know the damaging effects it can have when untreated. I also know that alcoholism is often a symptom of deeper struggles.“
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Old 15th March 2020, 07:47 PM   #105
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We just got a whole lot of candiates taken out tongiht....
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:22 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
We just got a whole lot of candiates taken out tongiht....
The debate? Wasn't watching. Care to expand on that?
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Old 15th March 2020, 09:01 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The debate? Wasn't watching. Care to expand on that?
Biden promised to choose a woman, and Sanders said he leaned that way.
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Old 15th March 2020, 09:29 PM   #108
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My vote is still for Stacey Abrams. I think Warren is more valuable in the Senate. She has the experience and we won't be taking someone already serving in Congress.

I'm looking forward to the "Biden's got dementia" contingent to show up after tonight's debate.
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Old 16th March 2020, 02:11 AM   #109
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My guess: Klobuchar or Abrams. Possibly Harris. (Assuming Biden is the nominee, which seems likely, if not inevitable.)

Clyburn Urges Biden To Choose Stacey Abrams, Another Black Woman As Running Mate

Quote:
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has former VP Joe Biden’s ear, and the prominent South Carolinian is making sure his wishes for the campaign are known. The Hill reports that on Wednesday Congressman Clyburn told the current frontrunner to choose a Black woman as his running mate.

Clyburn endorsed Biden just days before the South Carolina primary that took place late last month. Many have called it a quintessential moment in the 2020 election season, giving Biden a much-needed boost in what appeared to be a floundering campaign. In February Clyburn also told NPR that he believed “we’ve reached a point in this country where African American women need to be rewarded for the loyalty that they’ve given to this party.” So it’s no surprise that on his shortlist of running mates are very capable Black women.

Among those who he thinks would be optimal choices to share the ticket with Biden are former Democratic candidate, Sen. Kamala Harris and Georgia gubernatorial nominee and Fair Fight Georgia founder Stacey Abrams. Biden has openly discussed his liking for both of the potential running mates.

Last March, rumors began to surface that Biden was considering tapping Abrams as an early running mate on his ticket. She, however, said at the time that she was mulling over a potential run herself. “I think you don’t run for second place,” Abrams told hosts on The View.

In December, Biden publicly stated that he would seriously consider Harris as his VP. “Of course I would,” Biden insisted. “Look, Sen. Harris has the capacity to be anything she wants to be. I mean it sincerely. I talked to her yesterday. She’s solid, she can be president someday herself, she can be vice president, she could go on to be a Supreme Court justice, she could be attorney general. I mean she has enormous capability.”

In addition to Abrams and Harris, Clyburn also has Democratic Reps. Marcia Fudge (Ohio), Val Demings (Fla.) and Karen Bass (Calif.) on his shortlist of Black women running mates, as well as Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.
I think Clyburn really helped Biden win South Carolina in a big way. He probably would have won there in any case, but maybe not so emphatically. And it was pivotal too, because Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropped out after South Carolina and endorsed Biden before Super Tuesday. Since black voters have been key to Biden's success in the primary, he kind of owes them something, one would thing. On the other hand, Klobuchar helped him too, by dropping out before Super Tuesday and endorsing him.
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Old 16th March 2020, 10:57 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
My vote is still for Stacey Abrams. I think Warren is more valuable in the Senate. She has the experience and we won't be taking someone already serving in Congress.

I'm looking forward to the "Biden's got dementia" contingent to show up after tonight's debate.
Warren will be replaced in the Senate by another Democrat.
She could be the Dick Cheney of a Biden administration, though, and a badly needed one at that.
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Old 16th March 2020, 11:04 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Warren will be replaced in the Senate by another Democrat.
She could be the Dick Cheney of a Biden administration, though, and a badly needed one at that.
Bad analogy. What we definitely don't need is another Dick Cheney. But I get what your trying to say.
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Old 16th March 2020, 01:10 PM   #112
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Nothing like preemptively eliminating half of your potential candidates just because of their gender
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Old 16th March 2020, 02:11 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Bad analogy. What we definitely don't need is another Dick Cheney. But I get what your you're trying to say.
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Old 16th March 2020, 02:23 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Warren will be replaced in the Senate by another Democrat.
She could be the Dick Cheney of a Biden administration, though, and a badly needed one at that.
She could only fulfill that role if Biden wants her to fulfill that role. What are the chances Biden thinks he needs a VP who can help him figure out policy and strategy?
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:38 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
She could only fulfill that role if Biden wants her to fulfill that role. What are the chances Biden thinks he needs a VP who can help him figure out policy and strategy?
Near certain, IMO.
Before this election season he was retired.
I think he is running primarily because it was determined early on that he had the best chance against Trump of the field of potential candidates.
He has made it as clear as he can that he recognizes that he is too old for this- he has indicated that he intends only a single term.
He sees his only charge is to take the White House back for the Party, then let the Party run the White House. Far from being offended when they "take it from there", he is counting on that.

My take on it, anyway.
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:45 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
He sees his only charge is to take the White House back for the Party, then let the Party run the White House. Far from being offended when they "take it from there", he is counting on that.
Agreed. A major upside of an Uncle Joe victory would be the return of various well- and lesser-known policymakers and staffers from back in the Obama era.
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Old 16th March 2020, 04:32 PM   #117
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Didn't everyone agree it would be Amy? Harris will be AG and Warren Secretary of the Treasury. Seems pretty obvious. Harris wants to work on civil rights enforcement and mass incarceration. Warren takes control of the agencies that protect investors and consumers and Klobuchar gets passed a lay-up for her presidential bid.
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Old 16th March 2020, 05:47 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Nothing like preemptively eliminating half of your potential candidates just because of their gender
Indeed! At the presidential level, we've been doing that since 1788.
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Old 16th March 2020, 06:16 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Indeed! At the presidential level, we've been doing that since 1788.
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Old 19th March 2020, 05:47 PM   #120
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hmm...who thinks Biden may consider Tulsi Gabbard as VP?

I thought it was incredible that Gabbard endorsed Biden. But apparently she's friends with one of Biden's sons and says Biden has a good heart.
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