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Old 27th June 2018, 02:15 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You missed the point. So I'll use the analogy again to show why it's poor.

People use the club analogy to point out you can't expect to leave a club but continue to behave as though you haven't left. But you also don't leave a club but still have to pay into it.
And it's been repeatedly pointed out to you that this argument is false, for example if membership dues are paid or have fallen into arrears. A one-off closing payment to settle matters is not as outrageous as you keep trying to suggest.

Quote:
If you do still pay into a club then you haven't left - you've perhaps changed your membership type from 'gold' to 'silver' or similar - and then you WOULD be able to continue to use the club but with reduced benefits.
Like those popular pre-referendum Leave suggestions of the deal Norway or Switzerland, you mean? Neither are in the EU, but pay to have some of the benefits.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:15 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Genuine question, I don't know the answer. If there is a "no deal" break next spring, and we plunge out of the EU with nothing agreed, do we still pay the "divorce settlement" (C. £39 billion)?
That would depend on whether the UK want's to retain it's credit rating.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:17 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
When are we going to get clear of this stupid club analogy? Ex members of a golf club are not expected to pay any money to the club.
If they've signed contracts they are.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:17 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
There's at least one difference: You don't ruin your life by leaving club...
Although you could if it was the main centre of your social life, and that your business profited significantly from the contacts and networking you enjoyed with other members.

Damn, this comparison just gets more and more apt...!

Last edited by Information Analyst; 27th June 2018 at 02:21 AM.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:19 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Some may think that this is a bit of a stretch to include in a Brexit thread, but I think it directly relates:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44609494

It looks like there's an expectation that there's a magic money tree. IMO we're having to buy influence with the US and NATO allies because we'll no longer have the benefit of being part of the EU and hence benefit from their political, economic and diplomatic clout.

The extra £20bn a year sounds like an awful lot more than the EU contributions and it also sounds to me like we're proposing to engage in rearming. Someone in another thread (I'm sorry I forget which though it was likely in US Politics) pointed out that if you're spending all of this money on the military - it's a shame if all the kit just sits around gathering dust. I think increased military spending inevitably results in increased military adventures.
That'd be ~Stg£385M pw, or about 10% more than the mythical Stg£350M...
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:21 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I thought that the UK armed forces were for our benefit, not to be useful to the US and certainly not when the US seems to be having a bit of a democratic shortage at the moment.
Given the incipient desperation on the part of the May government and the behaviour of current US Molester-In-Chief expect to see the UK contracted for "border security" and locking children in cages...
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:26 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Given the incipient desperation on the part of the May government and the behaviour of current US Molester-In-Chief expect to see the UK contracted for "border security" and locking children in cages...
Sadly I can see us doing it for free to try and maintain the "special relationship"

The UKs role in the US rendition programme a decade and more ago is IMO (yet another) cause for national shame.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:46 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
We need to rearm. Challenger two is worn out, there are plans fora major interim refurb while a replacement is developed.
Warriors are worn out they need a replacement as do the CVRT family (Scimitar and such, they have been on the go since the 70s)

This is partly covered by the introduction of the 'Boxer' family but that won't include the new tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles.

Another cost is the re-engineering of the type 45 destroyers, They need all new generating plant to fix the problems they have had with power losses, that involves cutting holes in the hull side and replacing the whole generator plant. These problems were known about when they were taken in to service from BAE and various fixes have been tried without success. When systems are stressed in combat exercises the ships completely lose power and they are dead in the water while things are restarted.
It has been identified as inadequate generating capacity and faults in the switching.

There are also big problems with the latest frigate. It has been signed off but has bad workmanship faults that need to be corrected. Contractors have skimped on a lot of the electrical fittings and one of the boat cranes had been secured with some of the bolts broken and their heads glued in to place to look finished. Also welding cracks in some of the hull plating.
It has gone back to BAE fore corrective work.

It all costs money. There are big voices demanding that work on future ships is taken from the Clyde and brought back to Portsmouth.
1. Is there really a need for a replacement MBT?
2. Most of the UK's defense equipment problems have a single source; BAe
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:49 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
So is Brexit analogous to a putter, a wood or an iron?
Water hazard.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:52 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
But you also don't leave a club but still have to pay into it.
Yes you do, if you've contracted to do so. Fail.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If you do still pay into a club then you haven't left.
As I pointed out this is simply untrue.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Another thing that the club analogy misses for Brexit is the trading relationship.
Members of the club get a 15% discount in the club shop, non-members don't.
Likewise those showing their membership card get discounts at other enterprises due to connections to the club. Non-members (i.e. the UK) don't.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:54 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The club analogy for the new trade deal would be the ex member turning round and saying something like "of course I'll still want to play on the golf course, so you'll do me a good deal on green fees and a discount in the shop etc won't you?". No, you'll pay the full non-member prices, and you'll still have to obey the club rules though you will no longer have any say in what they are.
Like not being able to play during "members only" times.

Curiously my brother is now secretary of a golf club hence I have some knowledge of the inanity of such institutions.
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Old 27th June 2018, 03:15 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
1. Is there really a need for a replacement MBT?
2. Most of the UK's defense equipment problems have a single source; BAe
Yes we do need a new MBT. If we don't have one we give up high intensity warfare and we are no use to NATO
All we will be able to do is the low intensity 'insurgeny stuff'.

There is talk of a life extension for the Challenger 2.
This involves re-engineering the suspension and engine etc to extend the life of the chassis and reworking the turret to take the 120mm smoothbore gun as used by US and Germany etc.
The gun is the most important job, the existing rifled 120mm is not able to use the latest and more lethal ammunition that has been developed over the last ten years or so.

As for BAE, I agree. Babcock should be getting more work and the new Destroyers and Frigate building shouldn't have been moved from Portsmouth.
It only went to the Clyde to keep the Scots happy after the Devolution referendum.
Too late to bring it back though, the yard has gone in Portsmouth.

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Old 27th June 2018, 03:35 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well to be serious for a moment, as I understand it the UK is prevented from signing new trade deals until we have left the EU on 29 March 2019 so it's not unreasonable that none have been signed.

Dr Liam Fox assured us all that there are however 40 deals ready to sign on the 30 March 2019 and doubtless they will be signed on that date and be far better than the shabby deals we had with those countries when we were labouring under the yoke of EU oppression.
If in the transition period we remain in the Customs union I understand we would not be able to sign new deals during that period eitehr. It could be 2021 before the first deal is signed. I imagine that with all the anticipation that first signing would be quite an event. There won't be a hotel room to be had in Malé to see Prime Minister BoJo sign the first deal.
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Old 27th June 2018, 03:37 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
If in the transition period we remain in the Customs union I understand we would not be able to sign new deals during that period eitehr. It could be 2021 before the first deal is signed. I imagine that with all the anticipation that first signing would be quite an event. There won't be a hotel room to be had in Malé to see Prime Minister BoJo sign the first deal.
To be slightly serious I thought part of a transition deal was that we could start to negotiate with countries but not start the agreements until the transition agreement ended?
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Old 27th June 2018, 04:03 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
To be slightly serious I thought part of a transition deal was that we could start to negotiate with countries but not start the agreements until the transition agreement ended?
I think that is the same as what I said albeit I said it with more spelling mistakes. At least it is what I meant to say. We can't benefit from new trade deals until after transition.

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Old 27th June 2018, 04:10 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I think that is the same as what I said albeit I said it with more spelling mistakes. At least it is what I meant to say. We can't benefit from new trade deals until after transition.
The difference is that we can't legally at the moment start actual negotiations with another country, but in the transition period we would legally be able to do so.

Mind you I don't know if this is one of those comforting lies I remember being told and I'm clinging to like Linus' security blanket.
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Old 27th June 2018, 04:22 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
The difference is that we can't legally at the moment start actual negotiations with another country, but in the transition period we would legally be able to do so.

Mind you I don't know if this is one of those comforting lies I remember being told and I'm clinging to like Linus' security blanket.
I understood we could not currently start formal negotiations but if we were to, let say nudge nudge, discuss what we each might want to say in the purely hypothetical chance that we do decide to enter formal negotiations at a later date that wouldn't be wrong, surely?
Otherwise it begs the question how would Liam Fox be able to say they have 40 deals ready to sign?

Edited to add.

I would have thought we could come up with a quick hit list of small countries were we can persuade them to sign a similar agreement as we currently have. Getting a better deal or even a comparable deal with any large nation is going to be a lot harder. Apart from America, of course. Trump promised to put us at the head of the the queue to make Britain Great again.

In 2 years since the vote with the EU we have yet to agree a single element of a future trade deal

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Old 27th June 2018, 04:33 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
So is Brexit analogous to a putter, a wood or an iron?
None of the above. It's analogous to the loud mouthed drunk in the club bar who no-one has ever seen hit a stroke.
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Old 27th June 2018, 04:58 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Otherwise it begs the question how would Liam Fox be able to say they have 40 deals ready to sign?
As I understood it, this assumes that countries will be happy to "roll over" the agreements that they have in place with the EU to the UK only.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43581729

This of course means that the UK will have to continue to abide by EU rules because if there is divergence, then it's not a rollover.

I think that Liam Fox is being over-optimistic. Even if he has been given a nod and a wink that this will happen, once the counties have a little think about the situation, at least some may see the opportunity to try and extract additional concessions from the UK and then we're into full trade negotiations.
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Old 27th June 2018, 07:27 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Even if he has been given a nod and a wink that this will happen, once the counties have a little think about the situation, at least some may see the opportunity to try and extract additional concessions from the UK and then we're into full trade negotiations.
There are of course some countries where it would be reasonable to give concessions - main category would be those supplying agricultural produce that can't be grown in the UK.
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Old 27th June 2018, 07:45 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
....snip....

In 2 years since the vote with the EU we have yet to agree a single element of a future trade deal
FTFY!
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Old 27th June 2018, 07:48 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
There are of course some countries where it would be reasonable to give concessions - main category would be those supplying agricultural produce that can't be grown in the UK.
Under those circumstances then, the deal cannot be signed immediately (as claimed) and will have to await agreement of terms.

Why restrict it to agricultural products - or even have it as a main category ? Our domestic consumer electronics industry is completely unable to cope with demand, there are broad categories of raw materials we are unable to source domestically - we even import electricity.

Indeed a case could be made for pretty much any country we import from that they provide us with some commodity, good or service we cannot provide for ourselves, at the price and/or quality that they can.
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Old 27th June 2018, 09:05 AM   #103
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Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't holding my breath though
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Old 27th June 2018, 10:34 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Why restrict it to agricultural products - or even have it as a main category ?
Because those are the areas with some of the highest tariffs under EU rules.
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Old 27th June 2018, 12:28 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
2. Most of the UK's defense equipment problems have a single source; BAe
Because they're pretty much the monopoly supplier of Big Stuff, quite a bit of which seems to work fine.
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Old 27th June 2018, 12:51 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Because they're pretty much the monopoly supplier of Big Stuff, quite a bit of which seems to work fine.
When it has been fixed.

Babcock are starting to pick up some contracts now for naval stuff, they have a good reputation producing ships for various foreign navies.
On land it looks like we are going for the German / Dutch Boxer multirole armoured fighting vehicle to replace all the various knackered old vehicles in service at the moment, including command post, ambulance, engineer, cargo and Mechanised Infantry vehicle (Armoured Personnel Carrier).
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:15 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
From what I have read, Johnson is so disliked by many in the Tory party that even if May fell he would probably not get the PM nod.
And is it just me or is he TRYING to look like Donald Trump?
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By about ten minutes in, Mair really shows what Johnson really is like

Short version - Mair asks a difficult question, Johnson evades, and then asks to move on, so Mair obliges, and asks a more embarrassing question.
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Old 27th June 2018, 11:42 PM   #108
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The EU is increasing the political pressure on Theresa May to make some substantive progress.

Quote:
Theresa May has been warned that time is running out to secure a Brexit deal as she prepares to face the other 27 EU leaders at a summit in Brussels.

The PM will brief all her counterparts for the last time before October, when both sides hope a deal will be done on the UK's March 2019 departure.

But Irish leader Leo Varadkar said the lack of progress was "disappointing".

He said he expected fellow leaders to send a "strong message" to Mrs May that talks had to "intensify".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44636755

I realise that she has a difficult job. As has been pointed out to me many times in this thread's predecessors, her only priority seems to be remaining Prime Minister. To achieve this, she has to placate various "stakeholders" with mutually incompatible objectives. She can do this by being vague and/or offering different things to different groups - neither of these is compatible with making progress on Brexit negotiations.

Right now, the only solution I can see is a "no-deal" Brexit, a hard Irish border and a return to the troubles .

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Old 28th June 2018, 12:12 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The club analogy for the new trade deal would be the ex member turning round and saying something like "of course I'll still want to play on the golf course, so you'll do me a good deal on green fees and a discount in the shop etc won't you?". No, you'll pay the full non-member prices, and you'll still have to obey the club rules though you will no longer have any say in what they are.
Analogies are all limited. What happens when you leave a club depends on the club rules. You may get your membership fee back less the period you were a member for. Some clubs you could sell your membership to eligible persons who wished to join; you might actually turn a profit. What is the case here is that there are no club rules for leaving; they have to be agreed. Unlike most golf clubs this club says you can't play with / be a member of other clubs (except when playing as part of the EU golf club team).

A better analogy might be of a co-op club where each member brings their own holes. The UK gets to take away one of the holes. (A really great hole, one of the best holes ever, a Dodgson-Hawking hole.) The rest of the members can still play, but with one less hole. If they want to play the same rounds as before they need to negotiate a deal. No I don't want to be a member of your club; you can decide who joins what the fees are, what you wear. But if your 17 members want to play with my hole then I need to be allowed to play with your holes. There are also other clubs next to me, and I want to play with their holes and I don't want your permission for other people to play with my hole. (Please improve the analogy with appropriate use of terms such as wood, putting, balls etc.)
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Old 28th June 2018, 03:34 AM   #110
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Sunderland Echo reporting that Nissan has halted Investment plans while it remains in the dark about Brexit.
They want more information and certainty from the Govt.
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Old 28th June 2018, 03:45 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Sunderland Echo reporting that Nissan has halted Investment plans while it remains in the dark about Brexit.
They want more information and certainty from the Govt.

Didn't May promise them <something> some while ago?
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Old 28th June 2018, 04:05 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Didn't May promise them <something> some while ago?
If the Independent is right, she offered them the promise of a promise:

Quote:
A Whitehall source told The Independent: “There was no specific promise of money. It was a gentleman’s agreement, a case of doing whatever it took to keep Nissan happy.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7538391.html

IOW, pretty much the standard MO for anything to do with government's approach to Brexit, a vague fudge.


edited to add:

This from earlier this year:

Quote:
A ‘no-deal’ Brexit could destroy the car industry and put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk, a major inquiry has warned.

Even quitting the European Union with a trade deal in place can only hurt rather than help the automotive sector, which directly or indirectly employs 900,000 people across the UK.

The findings from the cross-party House of Commons Business Committee reveals the threat to 7,000 jobs at Nissan’s car plant in Sunderland, as well as thousands of others in the carmaker’s supply chain.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news...-lose-14349940

Last edited by The Don; 28th June 2018 at 04:07 AM.
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Old 28th June 2018, 09:58 PM   #113
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Theresa May using "blackmail" to try and get a better Brexit deal

Quote:
Citizens could be less safe if the UK has to leave key policing agreements after Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May has warned EU leaders.

The UK says EU negotiators are blocking agreement on tracking terrorists and sharing information after March 2019.

The EU says once the UK becomes a "third country" it cannot have the same access to policing initiatives.

Mrs May urged EU leaders to "consider what is in the best interests of the safety of your citizens and mine."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44651610

If safety is so important, don't leave
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Old 29th June 2018, 01:34 AM   #114
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Something that has grabbed tabloid headlines more than Brexit, and possibly even more than England's unexpected performance against Panama in the football is that temporary closures for maintenance in UK chemicals plants mean that there is a national shortage of CO2. WE MAY RUN OUT OF PORK, CHICKEN, AND LAGER - already crumpet supplies have been compromised .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44654127

Interestingly, a temporary fix is at hand....

Quote:
The industry trade journal Gas World, which first reported the news that CO2 was running short, said that two tankers full of liquid CO2 from mainland Europe have been delivered to ports in the UK in the past couple of days.
Post-Brexit, it'll likely be less easy for short-notice imports to make it to these shores.
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Old 29th June 2018, 02:49 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Theresa May using "blackmail" to try and get a better Brexit deal



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44651610

If safety is so important, don't leave
I think heading for a hard brexit, she is stoking fear and adding extra border checks and slowing everything down.
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Old 29th June 2018, 03:21 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Something that has grabbed tabloid headlines more than Brexit, and possibly even more than England's unexpected performance against Panama in the football is that temporary closures for maintenance in UK chemicals plants mean that there is a national shortage of CO2. WE MAY RUN OUT OF PORK, CHICKEN, AND LAGER - already crumpet supplies have been compromised .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44654127

Interestingly, a temporary fix is at hand....



Post-Brexit, it'll likely be less easy for short-notice imports to make it to these shores.

Makes me wonder why you need CO2 for crumpet making or preparing chicken and pork?
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Old 29th June 2018, 03:23 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Makes me wonder why you need CO2 for crumpet making or preparing chicken and pork?
"CO2 is used to stun farm animals"
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Old 29th June 2018, 03:29 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Something that has grabbed tabloid headlines more than Brexit, and possibly even more than England's unexpected performance against Panama in the football is that temporary closures for maintenance in UK chemicals plants mean that there is a national shortage of CO2. WE MAY RUN OUT OF PORK, CHICKEN, AND LAGER - already crumpet supplies have been compromised .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44654127

Interestingly, a temporary fix is at hand....



Post-Brexit, it'll likely be less easy for short-notice imports to make it to these shores.
Hmmph.. typical, not a word about the poor cyclists who may end up stranded miles from home....
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Old 29th June 2018, 03:33 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Makes me wonder why you need CO2 for crumpet making or preparing chicken and pork?
Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
"CO2 is used to stun farm animals"
It is the only way to safely and humanely stun the adult Crumps so you can tear the young - Crumpets - from their mothers.
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Old 29th June 2018, 03:43 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
Hmmph.. typical, not a word about the poor cyclists who may end up stranded miles from home....
Great idea. I have a load lying around, since I switched back to a pump (never runs out!). I could flog them for a fortune.
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