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Tags Coronavirus , vaccine

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Old 18th April 2021, 12:59 AM   #1481
Sherkeu
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yes but there is no question the COVID pandemic is much more deadly and problematic.

If COVID lingers (heaven help us) then at some point the fatality rate might be more commensurate with influenza. The reason being it wouldn't be a novel pathogen spreading through a naive population. Flu infects on average ~10% of the population every flu season. When a new variant like the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus (guess they've finally settled on a proper name) spread through communities, it was novel enough more people were susceptible so we had a worse flu year with it. I don't know how many people got it but it wasn't a deadly pandemic to the degree COVID is with no one having even partial immunity.

People (not you specifically) really need to stop with the crap that if they use [insert unsupportable values] flu is as bad as COVID. No, it is not, period, full stop.


Yes sometimes prevalence is tested in a population.

Look for your state or county weekly flu surveillance report. It's usually provided from ~Oct to ~May.

WA State's report looks like this.So weeks 11-14 300-400 specimens were sent each week and of those none were influenza.

Flu has specific characteristics: High fever (>101F) severe muscle aches and headache, and anorexia. It typically has a sudden onset.

Unlike some people believe, nausea and diarrhea is not the key symptom of flu.


And more than a few medical providers can do a rapid flu screen in the office.


We do test for flu, standard in the doctor's office. In addition in the US anyway, there are sentinel providers* that send in cultures during flu season. From that we get a weekly report as to how many of those cultures are positive for flu. They also look for RSV and last year during such sentinel testing, COVID was picked up.

*Sentinel providers are designated to sample what is circulating in the community. The CDC then puts out a weekly report during flu season to let providers know how bad or not bad flu is by state and by county.


I might be able to find one on flu. I'll look.
Thanks SG!!! Lots of good info.

Of course, anyone, just looking at the severe illness and deaths, can see COVID is much much worse than any flu (unless we got a brand new one, and pleaseletsnotdothat). In my imagination, I can see these viruses flitting around communities and wondering how much they can "stick" in a body regardless if they cause illness or death, and how we might track that to compare how they get around rather than tracking who gets the go-to-the-doctor symptoms. "Spread" rather than health outcomes, if you will.

I think current SarsCov-2 data points to it hitting a target better than the flu but an older flu is weaker and "not novel" so it might get into a human host just as well yet not spread as much. It might also be faster but with less opportunity, we dont notice it.

Hopefully all that convolution made some sense. There are just so many variables that are hard to track. (other than cases, illness, and deaths)
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Old 18th April 2021, 01:09 AM   #1482
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Originally Posted by Bubba View Post
Hudson shows a 3/3/20 tweet from Dr Tedros. It says:

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported cases die. By comparison, seasonal flu kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Hope that helps, Rolfe.
Nope, doesn't help.
Your post totally obscures the fact that MANY more people are dying from Covid than from influenza. Almost as if you and your sources tried to lie without getting caught.

Of course the IFR as well as CFR for Covid are both higher than for influenza (most strains).
In addition, SARS2 is FAR more infectious, as becomes crassly clear when you see how almost non-existent the flu is this winter amid a global regime of mask wearing and distancing, vs. how Covid still manages to cause wave after wave after wave.

The result is that within a year, more than 500,000 people died in the USA from Covid19, and general mortality was significantly increased even above years with bad flu epidemics. In comparison, no flu in the last 10 years caused more than 60,000 deaths, and not since the Spanish Flu, more than 100 years ago, did any influenza kill much more than 100,000 Americans.

To pretend that the risk of dying from Covid is minuscule is a form of dangerous lie.
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Old 18th April 2021, 02:20 AM   #1483
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Nope, doesn't help.The result is that within a year, more than 500,000 people died in the USA from Covid19
Whatever happened to Doghouse Reilly, the poster who made the avatar bet that there would be no more US deaths due to Covid than in a bad flu year, i.e. maximum of 80,000? Haven't seen him around lately.
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Old 18th April 2021, 07:17 AM   #1484
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Whatever happened to Doghouse Reilly, the poster who made the avatar bet that there would be no more US deaths due to Covid than in a bad flu year, i.e. maximum of 80,000? Haven't seen him around lately.
I don't know what he's up to, but note from the members' list that his avatar now is the message "I was wrong about Covid 19."
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Old 18th April 2021, 02:19 PM   #1485
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Whatever happened to Doghouse Reilly, the poster who made the avatar bet that there would be no more US deaths due to Covid than in a bad flu year, i.e. maximum of 80,000? Haven't seen him around lately.
He's mentioned in the past he sometimes takes weeks or months long breaks from the forum. One of those breaks was just after he lost the bet. It was some time before he logged back in and changed his avatar, so much so many speculated he'd bailed rather than admit he'd lost. He may be taking another break now.
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Old 18th April 2021, 05:02 PM   #1486
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Re asymptomatic flu spread, I found this in my net travels:

Does Influenza Transmission Occur from Asymptomatic Infection or Prior to Symptom Onset?
Quote:
DISCUSSION
Presymptomatic transmission of influenza has been
inferred based on the presence of the virus in the upper
respiratory tract rather than from appropriate transmission
experiments. This is troubling because our review
of the literature does not support significant influenza
transmission based on positive nasopharyngeal
cultures in the absence of symptoms. Asymptomatic
individuals may shed influenza virus, but studies have
not conclusively determined if such people effectively
transmit influenza. ...

CONCLUSION
A better understanding of transmission dynamics is
essential in influenza pandemic planning. If a substantial
proportion of transmission were to occur during the
presymptomatic phase or from asymptomatic individuals,
then infection control measures such as contact
tracing and quarantine of exposures will be of limited
value, in addition to constraints based on the short
serial interval for influenza transmission. However, we
have found limited evidence to suggest the importance
of such transmission. The role of asymptomatic or presymptomatic influenza-infected individuals in disease
transmission may have been overestimated in recent
articles dealing with pandemic planning. More definitive
influenza transmission studies are needed.
So you can find viral presence in pre and asymptomatic flu cases but it's not dramatically evident this is a major source of transmission.

As always, more research is needed.


ETA: One caveat and one of my pet peeves, not all strains act the same so one must consider which strain is being studied. A couple of very bad flu years had evidence of airborne spread, not just droplet spread.

And as we saw from early reports assuming COVID was droplet spread, it wasn't correct. Airborne spread was occurring as I posted very early on in this pandemic. 30 years of dealing with influenza infection control had given me experience to recognize what the early reports of COVID spread meant.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 18th April 2021 at 05:07 PM.
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Old 18th April 2021, 08:27 PM   #1487
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Worth noting that the excess death stats which show about 10+% higher levels than covid-19 would account for are actually higher because there are about 20-30k flu deaths that didn't happen from the NPIs in effect.

increasing evidence that vaccines are doing their thing. CFR rates are decreasing as the proportion of older people in the case stats decreases. Takes a while because of the lag from infections to deaths but it's increasingly clear in the numbers. This is especially true in Israel where over half the population is fully vaccinated and both deaths and case numbers are rapidly dropping.

Yay vaccines.
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Old Yesterday, 02:02 AM   #1488
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Worth noting that the excess death stats which show about 10+% higher levels than covid-19 would account for are actually higher because there are about 20-30k flu deaths that didn't happen from the NPIs in effect.

...
Can't parse this, can you rephrase please.
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Old Yesterday, 06:10 AM   #1489
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I believe what marting is trying to say is that there are, in all likelihood, fewer flu deaths than normal. This means the difference between the "baseline" and the amount with COVID-19 is higher.
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Old Yesterday, 07:44 AM   #1490
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People were indeed mentioning a possible 3-4% mortality rate over a year ago, when nobody knew very much at all and there were a number of estimates going around. That figure hasn't been seriously defended for very many months, because it took no account of the people who were ill with the virus but weren't tested, or of the people who had minor to no symptoms and weren't tested.

Nobody has seriously suggested the IFR is anything like 3-4%, and even a CFR around that level has been recognised as unrealistic when the number of symptomatic but untested people is taken into account. So anyone saying "oh look I just disproved a mortality rate of 304%" is a long way behind the curve.
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Old Yesterday, 12:28 PM   #1491
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
So anyone saying "oh look I just disproved a mortality rate of 304%" is a long way behind the curve.
Remembering that we're only able to talk about what it is now.

It might be completely different 12 or 24 months down the track.
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Old Yesterday, 04:02 PM   #1492
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
People were indeed mentioning a possible 3-4% mortality rate over a year ago, when nobody knew very much at all and there were a number of estimates going around. That figure hasn't been seriously defended for very many months, because it took no account of the people who were ill with the virus but weren't tested, or of the people who had minor to no symptoms and weren't tested.

Nobody has seriously suggested the IFR is anything like 3-4%, and even a CFR around that level has been recognised as unrealistic when the number of symptomatic but untested people is taken into account. So anyone saying "oh look I just disproved a mortality rate of 304%" is a long way behind the curve.
That can be disproved a priori.
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Old Yesterday, 04:25 PM   #1493
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Oh dear, I didn't even realise what I'd done! Remember the dash is next to the 0 on the keyboard!
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Old Today, 12:49 AM   #1494
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Worker at Auckland airport tests positive for COVID-19 a day after trans-Tasman travel bubble opens
Quote:
The case was detected in a worker who had been cleaning the interiors of aircraft used to transport people from high-risk countries into New Zealand, some of whom have COVID.
This is a bit of a worry. I thought to catch Covid 19 you had to be at least in the same room at the same time as someone who has it and that cleaning surfaces does not do anything to reduce infection. This suggests I am wrong. This is something that we should pay close attention to as there could not be many places he could get Covid 19 from other than the aircraft itself.

I wonder if he is on worker's compensation?
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Old Today, 03:19 AM   #1495
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This is a bit of a worry. I thought to catch Covid 19 you had to be at least in the same room at the same time as someone who has it and that cleaning surfaces does not do anything to reduce infection.
Then you've been mistaken for some time. We have almost certain proof of fomite transmission on several occasions, and to find one in a cabin area that could easily have been utterly riddled with fomites, it's not any kind of surprise.

It's nowhere near as common as airborne spread, but it happens.

As noted, the worker had received both doses of the vaccine and was asymptomatic, so it's highly unlikely he or she passed it on to anyone else. Contacts in the house are all clear, so it's no big deal by the looks.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I wonder if he is on worker's compensation?
Bloody well better be - there's a special payment in place that employers can claim.
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Old Today, 03:31 AM   #1496
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Holy crap, if you think things are bad in India right now, they're almost certainly worse than you could imagine: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56799303
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Old Today, 08:43 AM   #1497
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Holy crap, if you think things are bad in India right now, they're almost certainly worse than you could imagine: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56799303
Worldometers now has a view showing numbers for the most recent week, the week before that, and the relative change:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#weekly_table

Currently, the world went up from more than 4.8 million cases a week to more than 5.4 million (+12%), and from 79k to 84k deaths/week (+7%). But in both cases, India alone accounts for very nearly all of that change, such that the world minus India actually had -1% cases and +1% deaths from 2 weeks ago to last week.
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Old Today, 03:39 PM   #1498
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More on India - crematoriums running non-stop causing the steel fixtures to melt.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...-of-covid-dead
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