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Old 7th August 2019, 07:29 AM   #281
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I've resigned from the golf club but a sensible option would be for them to let me continue to play golf but not have to pay an annual subscription or green fee and as I'm no longer a member I don't have to abide by the dress codes and can wear my spikes in the lounge bar
I don't think the golf club analogy is a good match for the Brexit situation. I know it's liked by remain supporters though. If you want to make it more accurate, you could at least have the resigning member being the person that supplies the golf club with its whisky, lamb, etc.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 07:31 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 07:38 AM   #282
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
On your first point, in money spent terms, they sell us more than we sell them. But yes, expressed as a fraction of total trade, we sell a greater proportion to the EU than they sell to us.
.....a little under 10% of EU countries' exports go to the UK

....around 50% of UK exports go to the EU

The UK is far more dependent on the EU than vice versa.


Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If the trade deal benefits both sides, it needn't benefit the larger party more than the smaller one - unless the larger party insists on bullying the smaller one.
Brexiteers like to use emotive language like the highlighted, presumably because it plays to some kind of persecution complex.

Typically the party with the upper hand tends to be able to skew the terms of the deal in their favour. It isn't bullying, it's basic economics. It's why Mrs Don and I have been "lucky" with our two property purchases to date, we had motivated sellers on a tight moving deadline and were cash buyers. In both cases the agreed price was far closer it was to our opening price than theirs.

It's the same in the negotiations with the EU. Right now the UK needs food produced by the EU and access to the EU markets whilst on the other hand the EU wold very much like UK lamb and seafood and access to the UK market.


Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes to your last point. The EU has to make certain of that so as to discourage other countries from wanting to leave.
If you allow non-members to play the course for free then how do you pay for upkeep and what's the point of being a member ?
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Old 7th August 2019, 07:40 AM   #283
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't think the golf club analogy is a good match for the Brexit situation. I know it's liked by remain supporters though. If you want to make it more accurate, you could at least have the resigning member being the person that supplies the golf club with its whisky, lamb, etc.
You don't like it because it succinctly encapsulates the fundamental unreasonableness of the Brexiteer position.

They don't want to pay a subscription or green fee
As a non-member they don't feel bound by the club rules
But they still want to play the course as if they were a member
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Old 7th August 2019, 07:48 AM   #284
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't think the golf club analogy is a good match for the Brexit situation. I know it's liked by remain supporters though. If you want to make it more accurate, you could at least have the resigning member being the person that supplies the golf club with its whisky, lamb, etc.
In which case you're suggesting that the club shouldn't appoint a different, current member to go down to Morrison's with a carrier bag, even though several of them would be happy to do it.

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Old 7th August 2019, 07:52 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
1.8 billion extra for NHS building work in England?
Which isn't anything to do with preparing for a No Deal Brexit.
Which is what the chain of posts catsmate's was part of was talking about.

i asked ceptimus to tell us what actual preparations Johnson has started, compared to how much he's decided to pour into other things (like the NHS, questionable though that is, or high speed broadband, or rail).
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Old 7th August 2019, 08:01 AM   #286
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Most things will be on the table for negotiation - sharing of security information, allowing EU vessels to fish in our waters providing our fisherman can also fish in EU waters,
As I understand it the UK sold fishing quotas to EU fishermen. You canít sell something then make it part of a trade as if you still own it. If the UK were to buy back those rights first, then fine
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.
The existing trade deal was tied to other agreements when it was formed. You canít opt out just the parts you donít like. Iíd love it if I could opt out of my mortgage payments but still keep my house, but the bank is never going to agree to that no matter how much I argue that foreclosing would be inconvenient for them.
You could of course agree to extend all the associated deals and continue to trade under current terms. This was the core of Mayís deal which you rejected.
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Old 7th August 2019, 08:11 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
On your first point, in money spent terms, they sell us more than we sell them.
Which means the UK will be the one suffering from shortages and price increases after Brexit.
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Old 7th August 2019, 08:14 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
The existing trade deal was tied to other agreements when it was formed. You canít opt out just the parts you donít like.
And ceptimus highlights exactly the sort of thinking that shows willful lack of understanding of how this all works...
It's not as if we haven't tried to explain this all to him.
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Old 7th August 2019, 08:43 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Most things will be on the table for negotiation - sharing of security information, allowing EU vessels to fish in our waters providing our fisherman can also fish in EU waters, mutual recognition of driving licences, etc., etc. It's impossible to specify everything until negotiations begin - that's what negotiation is all about. The UK want, and have offered, to maintain the current tariff levels (i.e. zero) but the EU won't even talk about it until after we've left.

A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.
Then why haven't the UK delivered such a document to the EU?
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Old 7th August 2019, 08:59 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Then why haven't the UK delivered such a document to the EU?
Because the EU insist that their rules mean they can't even talk to us about trade until after we've left. It's one of their most effective red lines.

May did negotiate a transition period, or whatever you want to call it - which is what I'm suggesting. But the EU only agreed it providing the ludicrous anti-democratic backstop was also included - which is why the current 'deal' (treaty really) has failed to pass the house of commons.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 09:02 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:06 AM   #291
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:07 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Most things will be on the table for negotiation - sharing of security information, allowing EU vessels to fish in our waters providing our fisherman can also fish in EU waters, mutual recognition of driving licences, etc., etc. It's impossible to specify everything until negotiations begin - that's what negotiation is all about. The UK want, and have offered, to maintain the current tariff levels (i.e. zero) but the EU won't even talk about it until after we've left.

A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.
This is roughly what the present deal meant. Only it wasnít for two years, but untill a final deal was negotiated.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:09 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
And ceptimus highlights exactly the sort of thinking that shows willful lack of understanding of how this all works...
It's not as if we haven't tried to explain this all to him.
I understand it perfectly thank you. And as I've repeatedly explained, I'm quite content for the EU to agree no trade deal with us whatsoever, if that's what they decide is best for them. It's their decision.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:12 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by erwinl
This is roughly what the present deal meant. Only it wasn’t for two years, but untill a final deal was negotiated.
Yes, and it would most likely have been accepted if the EU hadn't tagged on the ludicrous anti-democratic backstop: that would keep us tied into EU rules and unable to negotiate independent trade deals for perpetuity, unless and until they decreed otherwise.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 09:14 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:15 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
This is roughly what the present deal meant. Only it wasnít for two years, but untill a final deal was negotiated.
And had the advantage of not violating the GFA - although it might still have rekindled the Troubles.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:15 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post

A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.
Funnily enough the EU agreed to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, the first two years (til Dec 2020) after leaving. That eliminated all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and would give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. It also had a sensible continuation should a new deal not be agreed in time.

But as you said, that's a sensible option. While the EU agreed and Mrs May agreed, the UK parliament lead by brexiteers refused to ratify it.

Last edited by Lothian; 7th August 2019 at 09:16 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:23 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
1.8 billion extra for NHS building work in England?
Possibly... However I'll wait and see how much of this actually happens, and how much ends up in the pockets of Tory donors and BoJo's cronies.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:29 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Funnily enough the EU agreed to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, the first two years (til Dec 2020) after leaving. That eliminated all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and would give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. It also had a sensible continuation should a new deal not be agreed in time.

But as you said, that's a sensible option. While the EU agreed and Mrs May agreed, the UK parliament lead by brexiteers refused to ratify it.
Only with the poisonous backstop. That made the option completely nonsensical.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:33 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
.....a little under 10% of EU countries' exports go to the UK

....around 50% of UK exports go to the EU

The UK is far more dependent on the EU than vice versa.
This uncomfortable fact for Brexiteers has been pointed out and ignored or glossed over.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Brexiteers like to use emotive language like the highlighted, presumably because it plays to some kind of persecution complex.
The psychology of Brexitism is interesting.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:34 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes, and it would most likely have been accepted if the EU hadn't tagged on the ludicrous anti-democratic backstop: that would keep us tied into EU rules and unable to negotiate independent trade deals for perpetuity, unless and until they decreed otherwise.
Or dear jeebus, the delusions and sense of entitlement...
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:37 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Only with the poisonous backstop. That made the option completely nonsensical.
So what would be a sensible plan should agreement not be negotiated in time?
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:44 AM   #302
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Is there any good reason to think that the UK parliament would accept the WA without the backstop? Something like a resolution?
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:49 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Only with the poisonous backstop. That made the option completely nonsensical.
A good incentive to negotiate and complete a trade deal then?
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:52 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
ludicrous anti-democratic backstop: that would keep us tied into EU rules and unable to negotiate independent trade deals
This is a perfect example of how you think you are owed special privileges. How these things get handled is a big part of negotiating any trade deal. The EU wonít agree to keeping the tariffs and throwing away the framework any more than anyone else is going to agree to eliminate tariffs without some associated framework for dealing with regulations, third parties etc.


You either need to keep the current framework and tariffs, or negotiate a new framework and associated tariffs. You donít get to keep the old tariffs and opt out of the entire framework that came with them.


Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
for perpetuity, unless and until they decreed otherwise.
False. Exiting from both the deal on tariffs and the associated trade framework would certainly have been possible. Stupid,like a no-deal Brexit, but possible.
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Old 7th August 2019, 09:56 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Is there any good reason to think that the UK parliament would accept the WA without the backstop? Something like a resolution?
That is the distinct impression given by many in the ERG and DUP - their sole objection was to the backstop. With ERG and DUP support there's a fair chance of it passing.

Whether they'd find a new sole objection if that one were removed is IMO a good question.

All of that is moot because, quite rightly, the EU is concerned that at the end of the transition period the UK would be no closer to being able to say what it (reasonably) wants much less that significant process has been made towards a deal. As a result a no deal (which the backstop is intended to prevent) is still a distinct possibility.
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Old 7th August 2019, 10:11 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Is there any good reason to think that the UK parliament would accept the WA without the backstop? Something like a resolution?
I donít see any way the EU could accept any deal that doesnít address the Irish border. The UK shouldnít be willing to either but the people pushing for Brexit donít seem smart enough to realize that they are outside the trade and customs agreements they need an enforceable border at which to apply trade rules, immigration rules, tariffs, etc.

All the backstop really says is that there will be a border where EU rules stop and UK rules start. This can be at the actual border or it can be further back into UK territory but only if EU rules continue to apply in the area on their side of where the border is enforced. These are both perfectly reasonable solutions but the UK has rejected both.
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Old 7th August 2019, 10:37 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
So what would be a sensible plan should agreement not be negotiated in time?
I agree with the government that we should leave on Halloween anyway.

If the EU are very close to agreeing some new leaving deal, which seems unlikely at the moment, then they could offer an emergency transition period of just a few weeks - say until the new year - in which to discuss it. We would still have left on Halloween, but the emergency period would allow a chance to finalize the new deal (or not). During the emergency period we would continue to operate as normal - just as we would have done under Mrs May's deal transition period.

If, as seems more likely right now, there is no prospect of a new deal, then we leave without a deal and can then begin trade negotiations with the EU, if and when the EU are prepared to begin them.

Right now the EU are maintaining that such negotiations couldn't begin, even after a no deal, unless we agree to the backstop - so in that case there would be no negotiations and we'd have to continue to trade on WTO terms - or whatever the EU might decide to offer.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 10:45 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 10:43 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by lomiller
This is a perfect example of how you think you are owed special privileges.
Not at all. What sensible country would ever enter into a treaty that allows a separate organization to dictate its trading terms with ALL other countries - and with no exit mechanism unless that separate organization decides to grant it?

You can't imagine any sovereign country being prepared to sign such a treaty. As Boris rightly said, it would turn the UK into a vassal state of the EU.

Far from wanting special privileges, I am quite content to leave with no privileges whatsoever. If the EU want to agree a trade deal then they are welcome to negotiate. Turning down the offer of being dictated to by an outside organization is, by no stretch of the imagination, 'demanding special privileges.'

It's actually the EU that are demanding special privileges - they want the privilege of ruling the UK's trade in perpetuity.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 10:56 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:26 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I agree with the government that we should leave on Halloween anyway.

If the EU are very close to agreeing some new leaving deal, which seems unlikely at the moment, then they could offer an emergency transition period of just a few weeks - say until the new year - in which to discuss it. We would still have left on Halloween, but the emergency period would allow a chance to finalize the new deal (or not). During the emergency period we would continue to operate as normal - just as we would have done under Mrs May's deal transition period.

If, as seems more likely right now, there is no prospect of a new deal, then we leave without a deal and can then begin trade negotiations with the EU, if and when the EU are prepared to begin them.

Right now the EU are maintaining that such negotiations couldn't begin, even after a no deal, unless we agree to the backstop - so in that case there would be no negotiations and we'd have to continue to trade on WTO terms - or whatever the EU might decide to offer.
You agree with the Gvt that we should ignore the sensible deal you talked about and leave anyway on Halloween. The non-sensible no deal.

After a no deal the EU will not insist on the backstop. The backstop was designed to keep the NI border open. When we leaveno on deal there will be a border so there is no free trade to preserve. There will no future deal with the EU while Boris insists we will not pay for the services we promised to fund until 2020.

The general consensus is that we will wave tariffs and allow EU traders to send goods to the UK free of charge. Our sales to the EU however will have tariffs applied.

Last edited by Lothian; 7th August 2019 at 11:27 AM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:30 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That is the distinct impression given by many in the ERG and DUP - their sole objection was to the backstop. With ERG and DUP support there's a fair chance of it passing.
Yep what is the point of leaving if you don't close the irish border?
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:34 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
I donít see any way the EU could accept any deal that doesnít address the Irish border. The UK shouldnít be willing to either but the people pushing for Brexit donít seem smart enough to realize that they are outside the trade and customs agreements they need an enforceable border at which to apply trade rules, immigration rules, tariffs, etc.

All the backstop really says is that there will be a border where EU rules stop and UK rules start. This can be at the actual border or it can be further back into UK territory but only if EU rules continue to apply in the area on their side of where the border is enforced. These are both perfectly reasonable solutions but the UK has rejected both.
Well yes the backstop was that if an agreement can't be reached that the border will be between NI and the rest of the UK. To keep the Irish border open at the expense of having a customs border inside the UK. Those objecting to it also seem oddly skeptical that a border is needed at all so it should be pretty easy to avoid it and with there being no land border it would seem easier to institute the border between NI and the rest of the UK than between NI and RoI.

But it isn't like common sense and reason got us into this situation why expect it now?
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:37 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
The general consensus is that we will wave tariffs and allow EU traders to send goods to the UK free of charge. Our sales to the EU however will have tariffs applied.
Um isn't that against WTO rules? Absent an agreement you have to apply the same tariffs on everyone. Or is this another thing the UK signed up for like the GFA that is getting torn up for brexit?
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:40 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
I donít see any way the EU could accept any deal that doesnít address the Irish border. The UK shouldnít be willing to either but the people pushing for Brexit donít seem smart enough to realize that they are outside the trade and customs agreements they need an enforceable border at which to apply trade rules, immigration rules, tariffs, etc.

All the backstop really says is that there will be a border where EU rules stop and UK rules start. This can be at the actual border or it can be further back into UK territory but only if EU rules continue to apply in the area on their side of where the border is enforced. These are both perfectly reasonable solutions but the UK has rejected both.
I'm rather interested in whether the backstop objection is made in good faith. I have serious doubts.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:42 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not at all. What sensible country would ever enter into a treaty that allows a separate organization to dictate its trading terms with ALL other countries - and with no exit mechanism unless that separate organization decides to grant it?

You can't imagine any sovereign country being prepared to sign such a treaty. As Boris rightly said, it would turn the UK into a vassal state of the EU.

Far from wanting special privileges, I am quite content to leave with no privileges whatsoever. If the EU want to agree a trade deal then they are welcome to negotiate. Turning down the offer of being dictated to by an outside organization is, by no stretch of the imagination, 'demanding special privileges.'

It's actually the EU that are demanding special privileges - they want the privilege of ruling the UK's trade in perpetuity.
No, the EU did not demand that. The EU only demands that the UK keep the committments it made in the GFA. Nothing more.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:43 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not at all. What sensible country would ever enter into a treaty that allows a separate organization to dictate its trading terms with ALL other countries - and with no exit mechanism unless that separate organization decides to grant it?

You can't imagine any sovereign country being prepared to sign such a treaty. As Boris rightly said, it would turn the UK into a vassal state of the EU.
Article 5 of the withdrawal agreement prevents that
Article 132 allows us to extend the transition without entering the back stop.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:45 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Um isn't that against WTO rules? Absent an agreement you have to apply the same tariffs on everyone. Or is this another thing the UK signed up for like the GFA that is getting torn up for brexit?
No....... and yes.... We would have to waive all tariffs from everywhere not just the EU.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:48 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
No, the EU did not demand that. The EU only demands that the UK keep the committments it made in the GFA. Nothing more.
And funny how people who are so sure that an invisible customs border can be in place in Ireland don't seem to think one can be between NI and the rest of the UK.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:50 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
No, the EU did not demand that. The EU only demands that the UK keep the committments it made in the GFA. Nothing more.
Which shows where the real problem is, the UK clearly needs out of the GFA.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:55 AM   #319
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If we manage to leave without a deal, you'll see whether anyone builds any border infrastructure at the Northern Ireland-Ireland border. Every party has said they won't, so who do you expect to build it?
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:59 AM   #320
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not at all. What sensible country would ever enter into a treaty that allows a separate organization to dictate its trading terms with ALL other countries - and with no exit mechanism unless that separate organization decides to grant it?
The US has set high tariff rates on Chinese steel this has driven up costs for US manufacturers who require steel. Do you think the US would sign an agreement that allows the UK to import cheaper steel from China and use that advantage to undercut US made products?

The reason the UK would not be allowed to have separate trade agreements in effect is to prevent back doors into the EU market. It insures that manufacturers in the EU and UK remain on an equal footing and that the UK doesn't use trade deals to create an unfair advantage over assembling the same product elsewhere in the EU.
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