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Old 13th August 2019, 02:58 AM   #601
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
This doesn't seem to get brought up much, but as far as I can see the US will not be ratifying trade deals with anyone until the president , and the majority of the house and senate are from the same party. It doesn't look too likely that this will happen in the 2020 election, so 2023 would be the next possibility.
I suppose that it depends on the nature of the proposed trade deal. If the trade deal enjoys bipartisan support then there's no reason to presume that it wouldn't be passed.

For example a UK/US trade deal which is in the US' favour but where there is no threat to the GFA from the Brexit process would likely sail through.
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Old 13th August 2019, 02:59 AM   #602
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Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:04 AM   #603
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I suppose that it depends on the nature of the proposed trade deal. If the trade deal enjoys bipartisan support then there's no reason to presume that it wouldn't be passed.

For example a UK/US trade deal which is in the US' favour but where there is no threat to the GFA from the Brexit process would likely sail through.
I don't think so, there is nothing particularly wrong with NAFTA2.0, but it's going nowhere. Any deal Trump agrees the Democrats will block, and if Trump loses in 2020 then vice versa for whatever the Dem president agrees.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:07 AM   #604
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
It's also been pointed out that the UK has announced its going to impose zero tariffs on most products, so there's little incentive for agreements- according to the radio this morning, Canada has doesn't wantbto roll over the EU agreement as it would get everything it wants from WTO trade with the UK.
I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.

Have not seen that this is the plan though . Is it?
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:08 AM   #605
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?
It is highly likely that the terms of a US/UK trade agreement would be weighted heavily in favour of the US. Even if there are no tariffs, there are non-tariff barriers which could be made to work in the US' favour.

Examples include the UK having to adopt US standards so that all US goods can be exported (chlorinated chicken and so on), and the UK having no quota for US exports but the US imposing very small quotas for UK goods.

In a negotiation between equal partners, the UK would insist that the US didn't subsidise (or that there were tariffs to compensate), but this won't be that kind of negotiation IMO.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:14 AM   #606
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.

Have not seen that this is the plan though . Is it?
Does the 'lack of significant flaws' include the political upheaval caused by a massive reshaping and re-organisation of the UK economy, or would this not happen?
I'm looking for information, not trying to catch you out. I can see that in terms of increased economic activity in the UK it would be beneficial, but politically it seems very dangerous to me, however I are an engineer and not an economist or politician.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:21 AM   #607
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I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.

This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test). Seems to me it is the surest case to lessen trade barriers in any way possible even one sided.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:39 AM   #608
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.

This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test). Seems to me it is the surest case to lessen trade barriers in any way possible even one sided.
OK, I may have misinterpreted your post. I read it as you thinking that there was no significant flaw in a country setting all import tariffs to zero in any circumstances.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:41 AM   #609
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test).
Unlike a normal crash test, though, the dummies are in charge of the testing.

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Old 13th August 2019, 03:54 AM   #610
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
OK, I may have misinterpreted your post. I read it as you thinking that there was no significant flaw in a country setting all import tariffs to zero in any circumstances.
I do pretty much support unilateral tariff abolition yes.
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Old 13th August 2019, 03:56 AM   #611
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I do pretty much support unilateral tariff abolition yes.
And the political/social impact from the upheaval (If you don't have a ready-made upheaval) isn't a flaw? Or is there no impact?
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Old 13th August 2019, 04:00 AM   #612
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Could call it a cost in a set of transactions with an overall benefit. "Kaldor/Hicks" rather than "pareto" improvement.
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Old 13th August 2019, 04:03 AM   #613
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
So it would seem. The national average for RNs in the US is around $73,000, which seems to be the equivalent of about £65,000. The average in large urban areas is significantly higher which reflects the higher CoL.

And they're worth every penny of it.
We don't value medical staff, doctors or nurses in the UK.
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Old 13th August 2019, 05:50 AM   #614
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
What does it mean, "to be put under administration"? Government taking control of a firm on a temporary basis?

McHrozni
Itís essentially the same thing as receivership in in US bankruptcy proceedings.
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Old 13th August 2019, 06:00 AM   #615
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?
When the Trump administration talks trade he usually means ďgive our industries access to your markets, but we will continue to impose tariffs and subsidies to prop up business that get hurt by the additional competition. Provided they make campaign contributionsĒ

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?
Very likely. I mentioned it myself a few pages back.
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Old 13th August 2019, 07:34 AM   #616
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.
I think the arguments work for why a “bad trade deal” may not be a real problem. The issues I see are are more related to constancy and predictability, and their role in the willingness of business to make long term investments.
Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.
The issue with lowering tariffs to zero unilaterally regardless of what counterparties do is that upheaval and uncertainty become continuous because counterparties can change their rules to target different business and/or sectors at any time.
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Old 13th August 2019, 09:58 AM   #617
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Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.
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Old 13th August 2019, 10:56 AM   #618
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.
Yummy chlorinated chicken ?

Items with imperial sizing ?

Overpriced and/or under-regulated medication ?

The list is an extensive one
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:11 AM   #619
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.
We get to buy lots of American goods helping America get great again. If America thinks we are not buying enough we will get hit by trade tariffs on our goods to America. See the current US/China deal to see how Trump's US does business.
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:12 AM   #620
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.

Blue passports.
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:34 AM   #621
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Your RNs get paid minimum wage?
No, nurses in the NHS are on AfC Band 5, which is currently £24,214 to £30,112 in six points, with a 20% uplift for Inner London, or 15% for Outer London.

The full UK minimum wage is just over £16,000.
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:36 AM   #622
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I do pretty much support unilateral tariff abolition yes.
I think the problem is if you are suddenly doing this whilst leaving a massive customs union with zero tariffs. You are then negotiating to get low tariffs on your goods but without anything to encourage reciprocity.

Whilst having a major recession.

And it's probably not the tariffs as much as the standards that are the problems.
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Old 13th August 2019, 01:08 PM   #623
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
We don't value medical staff, doctors or nurses in the UK.
It might be old data, but this suggests otherwise:

http://www.worldsalaries.org/professionalnurse.shtml

That shows the US and Australia paying more, but the UK ahead of the rest of Europe.
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:51 PM   #624
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I think all subsidies to farmers and other industries are a bad thing.

Maybe you need to be more flexible on this issue, like Dominic:

Brexit enforcer Cummingsí farm took Ä235,000 in EU handouts
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Old 13th August 2019, 11:55 PM   #625
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Itís essentially the same thing as receivership in in US bankruptcy proceedings.
Ouch. Basically "bend over, if you relax it won't hurt as much" kind of thing.

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Old 14th August 2019, 12:02 AM   #626
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It is highly likely that the terms of a US/UK trade agreement would be weighted heavily in favour of the US. Even if there are no tariffs, there are non-tariff barriers which could be made to work in the US' favour.

Examples include the UK having to adopt US standards so that all US goods can be exported (chlorinated chicken and so on), and the UK having no quota for US exports but the US imposing very small quotas for UK goods.

In a negotiation between equal partners, the UK would insist that the US didn't subsidise (or that there were tariffs to compensate), but this won't be that kind of negotiation IMO.
I think we've seen plenty of Trumpian negotiations at work to make a prediction. USA will draft a proposal and demand UK agrees to it in full. If UK disagrees the negotiations will be over and UK will be trashed in the press for being difficult. Once it does agree USA will alter the deal to be more beneficial to them and demand UK sign on to this new deal instead. This could go on for a while.

It needs to be like this or else Trump will not be able to use it against Pelosi. He might be able to leverage a truly great deal for the USA against the Democrats when they refuse to ratify it.

If UK goes along with it and it somehow goes through it will be trading a union where it is the first among equals for a union where it is a junior partner. In the name of making Britain great again, no less.

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Old 14th August 2019, 01:19 AM   #627
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
We The government don't value medical staff, doctors or nurses in the UK.
FTFY
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Old 14th August 2019, 08:23 AM   #628
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Boris Johnson blaming Remainers for all of Brexit's woes again....

Quote:
Boris Johnson has accused MPs "who think they can block Brexit" of a "terrible collaboration" with the European Union.

The prime minister said the EU had become less willing to compromise on a new deal with the UK because of the opposition to leaving in Parliament.

He said this increased the likelihood of the UK being "forced to leave with a no-deal" in October.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49348072
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Old 14th August 2019, 08:28 AM   #629
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Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi is making it quite clear that any UK/US trade deal is dependent on the Good Friday Agreement being maintained:

Quote:
A US-UK trade deal will not get through Congress if Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives has said.

Democrat Nancy Pelosi, whose party controls the House, said the UK's exit from the EU could not be allowed to endanger the Irish peace deal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49348062

Then again, as McHrozni has suggested, the UK could agree a deal so much in the US's favour that to try and block it in congress, even if the GFA has been broken, would be politically damaging.
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Old 14th August 2019, 08:47 AM   #630
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Boris Johnson blaming Remainers for all of Brexit's woes again....



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49348072
'Forced to leave' is the new term for 'choosing to jump off a cliff'
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Old 14th August 2019, 09:16 AM   #631
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
'Forced to leave' is the new term for 'choosing to jump off a cliff'
"You're forcing me to starve because you won't give me the CORE Seasons tasting menu with accompanying wine flight for £10 "

"If you pay the £250 you can have the tasting menu and wine"

"Don't want to pay £250 "

"Well then, you could have fish and chips or a takeaway pizza for £10"

"Want gourmet food not takeaway "

"Well you could compromise and have the set lunch and a single glass of wine at another top restaurant for around £50"

"Don't want to compromise, want exactly what I asked for "

....and that's exactly how Boris Johnson and his cronies are being forced.
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Old 14th August 2019, 09:27 AM   #632
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Originally Posted by Ape of Good Hope
Maybe you need to be more flexible on this issue, like Dominic:

Brexit enforcer Cummings’ farm took €235,000 in EU handouts
You can't blame him for claiming what he's entitled to, and it's very much to his credit that he's willing to give up this source of income in order that the country can leave the EU.
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Old 14th August 2019, 09:31 AM   #633
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Boris Johnson blaming Remainers for all of Brexit's woes again....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49348072
He's absolutely right. You would think Phillip Hammond and others like him were employees of the EU, not MPs who are elected by and paid by UK taxpayers.
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Old 14th August 2019, 09:34 AM   #634
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You can't blame him for claiming what he's entitled to, and it's very much to his credit that he's willing to give up this source of income in order that the country can leave the EU.
For once, I actually agree with you; this is morally equivalent to shaming Emma Thompson for flying to New York. Hopefully this is the first of a series of more reasonable...

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
He's absolutely right. You would think Phillip Hammond and others like him were employees of the EU, not MPs who are elected by and paid by UK taxpayers.
Oh. Oh well, never mind.

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Old 14th August 2019, 10:07 AM   #635
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You can't blame him for claiming what he's entitled to, and it's very much to his credit that he's willing to give up this source of income in order that the country can leave the EU.
Again for reference: Iím Canadian so I have no dog in the fight.

With that in mind as a mostly independent third party, itís clear that the EU is the reasonable ones here. What they are demanding fits all international norms for how nations interact. Itís BJ and Brexiters in general with the false sense of entitlement and whining because no one will conform to their completely unreasonable expectations
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Old 14th August 2019, 10:21 AM   #636
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
He's absolutely right. You would think Phillip Hammond and others like him were employees of the EU, not MPs who are elected by and paid by UK taxpayers.
In the last election the Tories got 43% of the vote and 327 MPs. In the referendum Remain got 48% of the vote and you object to any MPs representing them.

Why do you hate the views of the electorate being reflected in parliament?
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Old 14th August 2019, 11:01 AM   #637
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
He's absolutely right. You would think Phillip Hammond and others like him were employees of the EU, not MPs who are elected by and paid by UK taxpayers.
In particular it's the term "collaborators", making them seem like Nazi collaborators that sticks in the craw
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Old 14th August 2019, 12:45 PM   #638
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It's almost like the word collaborator was never used by anyone, in any other context than when referring to Nazis.

Remoaners sure are getting desperate now - a good example being Green MP Caroline Lucas's recent sexist and non-inclusive article - if you really want to criticize an MP for saying or writing offensive stuff about Brexit, then you should begin with her.
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Old 14th August 2019, 12:53 PM   #639
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Originally Posted by lomiller
It’s BJ and Brexiters in general with the false sense of entitlement and whining because no one will conform to their completely unreasonable expectations.

How is saying, "We will leave on the agreed written-in-law deadline, with or without your help." whining, or having false expectations?
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Old 14th August 2019, 01:04 PM   #640
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It's almost like the word collaborator was never used by anyone, in any other context than when referring to Nazis. .
Dunno, a quick Google search indicates that that's the current usage.
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