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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old Yesterday, 05:34 PM   #1401
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Mardi Gras is this weekend through Tuesday in multiple countries.
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Old Yesterday, 05:47 PM   #1402
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Most places, so far, it kills about as many people as a bad batch of the flu.
The problem is, in a normal 'flu season, only a small percentage of people get it. Some carry immunity, some are immunised - with covid, nobody seems immune, except maybe kids, and nobody is immunised.

If it gets traction all over the world, the reckoning is that 60% of people will be infected.
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Old Yesterday, 06:26 PM   #1403
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The problem is, in a normal 'flu season, only a small percentage of people get it. Some carry immunity, some are immunised - with covid, nobody seems immune, except maybe kids, and nobody is immunised.

If it gets traction all over the world, the reckoning is that 60% of people will be infected.
Yeah, that's the problem. Because the flu is endemic, there are a fair number of peeps that are resistant so the R0 is only a bit over 1. This puppy is both new and more deadly. Bad combo. On the positive side I think people are going to be much more receptive to hygiene and perhaps that will limit the damage. At least so I hope. Japan is already showing decreases in the flu. Will these measures reduce R0 for the Coronavirus below 1? Possibly in some countries.

In the meantime the Olympics is still saying Japan 2020 is on. Anyone taking odds?

Still likely to play havoc with the global economy. Still a lot of wishful thinking going on. Like in the summer of 2007.
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Old Yesterday, 06:33 PM   #1404
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
In the meantime the Olympics is still saying Japan 2020 is on. Anyone taking odds?
I say it will be canceled. Athletes especially are super paranoid about things like these. It's still quite far away, but it won't be over.
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Old Yesterday, 06:35 PM   #1405
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
In the meantime the Olympics is still saying Japan 2020 is on. Anyone taking odds?
Like the wider economy, I'd be going short the Olympics right now.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Still likely to play havoc with the global economy. Still a lot of wishful thinking going on.
Absolutely - I've started a thread in Business suggesting shorting the sharemarkets in developed countries.

I think your wishful thinking is right - a lot of people are ignoring because the alternative is a touch horrifying.
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Old Yesterday, 06:38 PM   #1406
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China not reporting today, or have they done another switch on numbers?

Worldometer is showing 2 new deaths and 11 new cases, fewer than Iran...
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Old Yesterday, 08:03 PM   #1407
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
China not reporting today, or have they done another switch on numbers?

Worldometer is showing 2 new deaths and 11 new cases, fewer than Iran...
Currently, Worldometer is reporting 3,458 deaths. However, this is clearly a typo since all their detail below is just under 2,500.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/

John's Hopkins shows 2470 including now 3 from the Diamond Princess.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old Yesterday, 08:24 PM   #1408
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Australian stock market has the jitters today. Down 2.2% due to corona virus worries. Australia has a huge export market to China.
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Old Yesterday, 09:26 PM   #1409
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Australian stock market has the jitters today. Down 2.2% due to corona virus worries. Australia has a huge export market to China.
Everywhere down 2% today.

It's got a long way to go yet.
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Old Yesterday, 09:28 PM   #1410
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The stock market will drop. But this is a temporary problem and at some point it will recover.

Sell now, buy when it drops a sufficient amount.
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Old Yesterday, 09:59 PM   #1411
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To angrysoba from my infectious disease newsfeed:
Quote:
Breakdown of positive cases by prefecture:
Tokyo - 29
Hokkaido - 26
Kanagawa - 16
Aichi - 17
Wakayama - [34]
Chiba - 10
Kumamoto - 3
Okinawa - 3
Ishikawa - 2
Kyoto - 2
Fukuoka - 2
Tochigi - 1
Saitama - 1
Mie - 1
Nara - 1
Osaka - 1
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Old Yesterday, 10:29 PM   #1412
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
To angrysoba from my infectious disease newsfeed:
Thanks for that. The numbers for each prefecture are being shown pretty regularly on the news here.

The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.

The Hokkaido one also seems a bit strange as I don’t think anyone knows the trail that led to it.

There is a female university student about 20 years old who seems to be in a very serious situation there.
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Old Yesterday, 10:35 PM   #1413
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.
I think there's a strong clue in all of the strange, pop-up cases, that a lot more people are infected but asymptomatic than we're aware of.

Right from the start, the smart guys were suggesting there were ten times more cases than known, because 90% of cases were so mild as to not be noticed.

That seems to be the only explanation for that kind of case, the Italian cases, and Iran - there has to be two or three degrees of separation between them and China.

I hope that's what's happening, because then we won't be seeing the apocalyptic mess I envision right now.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There is a female university student about 20 years old who seems to be in a very serious situation there.
Had to happen, I guess. She's right on the limit of what had happened in terms of severity, so I hope she recovers.
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Old Yesterday, 10:40 PM   #1414
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I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it

Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
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Old Yesterday, 10:40 PM   #1415
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Haha! Your post made me forget why I came in - I was going to say that for someone who keeps claiming the situation is under control, Xi sounds awfully unsure of himself, locked away and talking to 170,000 people on conference call:

Quote:
President Xi Jinping urged China to “spare no effort” to contain the coronavirus outbreak in Beijing...

Xi issued his warning in a conference call Sunday attended by more than 170,000 government and ruling party officials ...

“The security and stability of the capital city have a direct bearing on the overall work of the party and the country,” Xi said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rty-s-doorstep
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Old Yesterday, 11:12 PM   #1416
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Originally Posted by The Atheist
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.
I think there's a strong clue in all of the strange, pop-up cases, that a lot more people are infected but asymptomatic than we're aware of.
It's funny, we were in China a few months ago and I'm very stuffy in the morning.
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Old Yesterday, 11:18 PM   #1417
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
It's funny, we were in China a few months ago and I'm very stuffy in the morning.
It's probably too long ago, especially if it was pre-November, but there are so many things we don't know about the virus almost nothing's impossible.

If you turn up with it, it's infinitely more likely you picked it up since your return. The US testing of people in hospital with pneumonia might turn up some answers.
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Old Yesterday, 11:22 PM   #1418
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it
If you're looking at cultural greeting, Maori not just press noses together, they hold it to share a breath. Hongi, it's called and I've always considered it the dumbest and most dangerous form of greeting ever thought up.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
We're rooting for you!
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Old Yesterday, 11:42 PM   #1419
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The stock market will drop. But this is a temporary problem and at some point it will recover.

Sell now, buy when it drops a sufficient amount.

That's just going to make it drop even more alarmingly, won't it?
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Old Yesterday, 11:51 PM   #1420
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it

Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
If she's not well, it's probably something else. It's not in your area yet and flu is.
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Old Yesterday, 11:54 PM   #1421
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Currently, Worldometer is reporting 3,458 deaths. However, this is clearly a typo since all their detail below is just under 2,500.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/

John's Hopkins shows 2470 including now 3 from the Diamond Princess.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Worldometer corrected their error and now both show 2619 deaths
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Old Today, 01:02 AM   #1422
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
If you're looking at cultural greeting, Maori not just press noses together, they hold it to share a breath.
Its the same for hawaiians just pronounced slightly different
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Old Today, 01:06 AM   #1423
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If she's not well, it's probably something else. It's not in your area yet and flu is.
She is an emergency oral maxillofacial surgeon.

Over the weekend much of the medical chatter has turned to the realization that this has possibly been here for a while. Tomorrow our local health authorities are supposed to be queried about it, we shall see
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