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Old 19th May 2017, 01:46 AM   #961
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The Tory Party haven't definitely promised not to round up all the poor and have them shot. That'll probably be in the 2022 manifesto. "We definitely won't put in place extermination of the poor for the next few years, though we will look at ways in which we can eliminate a few of them for now"


Look I get it, you don't trust the Conservatives and their policies are not ones you agree with but ridiculous hyperbole like this doesn't really help you make your case IMO - or if you genuinely buy into the fact that the Conservatives are evil monsters out to destroy the country then the next few years will be excruciating for you
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:07 AM   #962
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I'm wondering what would happen after Corbyn's defeat (Because LFI he needs a miracle to win the election). Would he stand aside for new blood or would he try to stay on as head of Labour?
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:30 AM   #963
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I hope the Scots Nats here have noted this, from the same source:
A referendum on Scottish independence cannot take place until the Brexit process has played out and it should not take place unless there is public consent for it to happen
How might they test such public consent? Which public? Interesting.
Surely the only way to measure "public consent" for a referendum is if a party promising a referendum wins the most seats in Scotland, which barring a huge turnaround for the Tories, seems almost certain to happen.

Is Theresa May planning to hold a referendum to decide whether a referendum should happen? Or government by the latest YouGov opinion poll (but only when it suits, of course)?

May is positively Trumpian in her hypocrisy and double think.
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:31 AM   #964
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post


Look I get it, you don't trust the Conservatives and their policies are not ones you agree with but ridiculous hyperbole like this doesn't really help you make your case IMO - or if you genuinely buy into the fact that the Conservatives are evil monsters out to destroy the country then the next few years will be excruciating for you
Ridiculous hyperbole like what? Like saying that if someone hasn't said they aren't going to leave the ECHR then they might do it?

The Tories are openly saying that they will look at leaving once Brexit is dealt with and people are welcoming that as good news?!?
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:34 AM   #965
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Originally Posted by katy_did View Post
Surely the only way to measure "public consent" for a referendum is if a party promising a referendum wins the most seats in Scotland, which barring a huge turnaround for the Tories, seems almost certain to happen.
Public consent done and dusted. Scottish Government was elected and voted to have one. Just more nonsense from Theresa May here.

Quote:
Is Theresa May planning to hold a referendum to decide whether a referendum should happen? Or government by the latest YouGov opinion poll (but only when it suits, of course)?

May is positively Trumpian in her hypocrisy and double think.
She is. She is merely trying to call the bluff of the SNP here because she can. She has no other justification for her position. She's also being a bit of an idiot because nothing will persuade the waverer more than being told by Theresa May they can't.
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:45 AM   #966
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After hearing the Conservative's manifesto promise for a 100% tax on the elderly I will, for the first time in my life, be voting Lib Dems. This horror trumps the Lib Dem's anti-democratic stance on BREXIT, which to be honest doesn't affect me personally much one way or another (although I did make a bit off the back of the weak pound).
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Old 19th May 2017, 03:36 AM   #967
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Ridiculous hyperbole like what? Like saying that if someone hasn't said they aren't going to leave the ECHR then they might do it?
No, ridiculous hyperbole like:

Quote:
The Tory Party haven't definitely promised not to round up all the poor and have them shot. That'll probably be in the 2022 manifesto.
....and the idea that the entire Conservative party, and Theresa May in particular are some kind of cartoon villain.
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Old 19th May 2017, 04:17 AM   #968
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Originally Posted by katy_did View Post
Surely the only way to measure "public consent" for a referendum is if a party promising a referendum wins the most seats in Scotland, which barring a huge turnaround for the Tories, seems almost certain to happen..........
That might be right. But it might also be arguable that the total number of votes cast for unionist parties could be counted against the total number of votes cast for secessionist parties and be used to determine whether a referendum is by public consent. I can't see the SNP coming out with 50% + of the vote, so don't be surprised if this is the metric which Theresa May chooses.
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Old 19th May 2017, 04:56 AM   #969
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No, ridiculous hyperbole like:

....and the idea that the entire Conservative party, and Theresa May in particular are some kind of cartoon villain.
It was exactly analagous to you pointing out what others haven't promised not to do. The point I was making is that they don't have to promise NOT to do things that nobody actually thinks you would ever do.

Otherwise you would have to suspect that the Tories actually might round up the poor and have them shot because they haven't promised not to. Which nobody actually does think. The hyperbole was deliberate.

I actually assumed your comment about others not promising not to leave the ECHR was a joke, but your subsequent comments make me think you might actually have been serious.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:29 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
That might be right. But it might also be arguable that the total number of votes cast for unionist parties could be counted against the total number of votes cast for secessionist parties and be used to determine whether a referendum is by public consent. I can't see the SNP coming out with 50% + of the vote, so don't be surprised if this is the metric which Theresa May chooses.
That would finally annihilate the Labour Party in Scotland, if that party colluded with May in counting Labour votes together with Tory ones, in support of a refusal to give effect to a decision of the Scottish parliament.
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Old 19th May 2017, 10:48 AM   #971
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That would finally annihilate the Labour Party in Scotland, if that party colluded with May in counting Labour votes together with Tory ones, in support of a refusal to give effect to a decision of the Scottish parliament.
It wouldn't require collusion. In fact, Labour could shout their opposition from the rooftops. All May has to say is ""the votes in favour of the union total more than the votes for secession, therefore there is no public consent for a second referendum.......oh, and I received an overwhelming mandate for this position by the vote in the U-wide general election."
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Old 19th May 2017, 04:46 PM   #972
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That would finally annihilate the Labour Party in Scotland, if that party colluded with May in counting Labour votes together with Tory ones, in support of a refusal to give effect to a decision of the Scottish parliament.
Why even bother?

The anti Scots will take any result as evidence of why Scotland must be subjugated. They are irrelevant. May has made it clear. Self determination will be opposed by Westminster so do it against their will.
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Old 20th May 2017, 05:51 AM   #973
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
It wouldn't require collusion. In fact, Labour could shout their opposition from the rooftops. All May has to say is ""the votes in favour of the union total more than the votes for secession, therefore there is no public consent for a second referendum.......oh, and I received an overwhelming mandate for this position by the vote in the U-wide general election."
Even without collusion the LP would be obliterated if its supporters were dragooned like that. NO won because of the joint campaign Better Together mounted by LP and the Tories, but your suggestion would destroy any possibility of such cooperation.

May I say I hope your predictions are right, because they will make a Yes vote for independence practically inevitable if May was to address such crass and arrogant messages to the Scottish electorate. For there would be an instant response: here's another election, a Scottish Parliament one. Now let's see who gets most votes, SNP and Greens, or the unionist parties ...
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Old 20th May 2017, 09:33 AM   #974
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Even without collusion the LP would be obliterated if its supporters were dragooned like that. ........
Sorry Craig, but I really don't understand what you are saying here. Dragooned? Nothing whatever is being asked of them in the scenario we are discussing.
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Old 20th May 2017, 10:07 AM   #975
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Sorry Craig, but I really don't understand what you are saying here. Dragooned? Nothing whatever is being asked of them in the scenario we are discussing.
That is my point. Nothing is "asked" of people who are dragooned. I mean that if people's votes are counted and used for a purpose other than that for which they were cast, and if decisions are based on that procedure, then the voters might have cause to feel abused.

Clearly, many Labour Indyref voters in Scotland were not Unionists, because the Yes areas were (at that time) LP strongholds. These voters may have voted Lab in a previous election, despite that party's Unionism, for more general social-class ideological motives, or on account of affection for a particular candidate. Counting them as unionist voters would be "dragooning" them, and unquestionably abusive.

But I repeat: as an opponent of the Union, I hope May is foolish enough to do this. Like Cromwell at the Battle of Dunbar (1650)WP
the ministers of the Kirk in attendance are said to have put Leslie under great pressure to press on with an attack ... On observing the Scots manouevring into their new positions, (Cromwell) is said to have exclaimed, perhaps referring to Joshua 10:8, "The Lord hath delivered them into our hands!"
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Old 20th May 2017, 12:38 PM   #976
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....[..] and Theresa May in particular are some kind of cartoon villain.

Does a Scarfe cartoon of Margaret Thatcher count?
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Old 21st May 2017, 06:04 AM   #977
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Word on the wireless is that Labour are closing the gap on the Tories. This could mean...
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Old 22nd May 2017, 12:15 AM   #978
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Word on the wireless is that Labour are closing the gap on the Tories. This could mean...
It's true. It could mean nothing with the election less than three weeks from now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

It could also mean Theresa May miscalculated with the snap election to the point of being funny. Polls are a lagging indicator and indicate where the results were a week ago or so, and trends are more important than the current results. I'll keep my fingers crossed but won't hold my breath

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Old 22nd May 2017, 12:25 AM   #979
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's true. It could mean nothing with the election less than three weeks from now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

It could also mean Theresa May miscalculated with the snap election to the point of being funny. Polls are a lagging indicator and indicate where the results were a week ago or so, and trends are more important than the current results. I'll keep my fingers crossed but won't hold my breath

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If Scotland is anything to go by then a lot of Labour voters will toy with voting for someone else then switch back to Labour when it comes time to actually put their mark on the ballot. At least for an election or two.

One thing in their favour in England and Wales is a lack of a viable alternative. I mean seriously is anyone going to vote for Farron?
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Old 22nd May 2017, 12:32 AM   #980
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
If Scotland is anything to go by then a lot of Labour voters will toy with voting for someone else then switch back to Labour when it comes time to actually put their mark on the ballot. At least for an election or two.

One thing in their favour in England and Wales is a lack of a viable alternative. I mean seriously is anyone going to vote for Farron?
The upside is that this will reduce the Tory majority. Negative impact is that Corbyn will remain party head for the foreseeable future.

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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:31 AM   #981
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
One thing in their favour in England and Wales is a lack of a viable alternative. I mean seriously is anyone going to vote for Farron?
Me, because if my constituency doesn't get a Lib-Dem, it will get a Tory.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 04:10 AM   #982
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's true. It could mean nothing with the election less than three weeks from now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

It could also mean Theresa May miscalculated with the snap election to the point of being funny. Polls are a lagging indicator and indicate where the results were a week ago or so, and trends are more important than the current results. I'll keep my fingers crossed but won't hold my breath

McHrozni
I think they have shot themselves in the foot with the "attack" on their core voters. Also Labour are galvanising younger and older voters with the tuition fees stuff and the triple lock stuff.

Still think the Tories will win. The media wont have it any other way. I sense the Sun Kinnock type headline coming.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 06:08 AM   #983
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
After hearing the Conservative's manifesto promise for a 100% tax on the elderly I will, for the first time in my life, be voting Lib Dems.
Looks like my viewpoint was shared by many and, incredibly, the Conservatives did not foresee this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7749001.html
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Old 22nd May 2017, 06:15 AM   #984
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Looks like my viewpoint was shared by many and, incredibly, the Conservatives did not foresee this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7749001.html
Nobody deserves that fate. Except perhaps the people who designed the Independent's website. No matter how many times they change it, it is always a pain to use.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 10:02 AM   #985
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Strong and stable is looking a lot like blown around like a crisp packet in the wind.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 11:13 AM   #986
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Irish times comments on the Tory manifesto.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/e...racy-1.3089102

The wording used is usually reserved for far-left parties, like Syriza.

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Old 22nd May 2017, 12:21 PM   #987
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....and government IT projects especially if they relate to benefits or entitlements....
They tend to be awful regardless of who's supposedly in charge.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 01:29 PM   #988
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The average cost of a house in the UK is something like £220,000. The original plan was that you'll be allowed to keep £100,000.

So essentially they are telling the average family that they will have to stump up £120,000 because of this policy.

How could they possibly have thought this would be a remotely good idea, let alone any kind of vote winner? It's just staggering that they could be so stupid.

May could have been looking at a 100+ majority. Now she will be lucky to keep the majority she has, IMO... and if that happens, everyone will look at this election as a colossal waste of time and money that accomplished nothing at all.

This May (ha!) go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in living memory.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 01:50 PM   #989
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
The average cost of a house in the UK is something like £220,000. The original plan was that you'll be allowed to keep £100,000.

So essentially they are telling the average family that they will have to stump up £120,000 because of this policy.

How could they possibly have thought this would be a remotely good idea, let alone any kind of vote winner? It's just staggering that they could be so stupid.

May could have been looking at a 100+ majority. Now she will be lucky to keep the majority she has, IMO... and if that happens, everyone will look at this election as a colossal waste of time and money that accomplished nothing at all.

This May (ha!) go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in living memory.
Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 02:04 PM   #990
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
I'm not sure "Well, we're only going to cost you 85 grand" really makes it that much better for her.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:26 PM   #991
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I thought this election would be 1983 all over again for Labour. Now it looks more like 1987. Labour are winning the campaign, but will lose the election.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:54 PM   #992
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
I think they thought their propaganda campaign (Corbyn an antisemitic IRA terrorist etc) had removed Labour from the equation, so they could do what they wanted without restraint; and we are seeing their real character. This ugly manifestation has repelled a significant portion of the electorate: however I agree they'll probably win ... in England at least, and therefore the UK as a whole.
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Old 24th May 2017, 02:07 PM   #993
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If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
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Old 24th May 2017, 06:00 PM   #994
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
But then Corbyn will have a mandate to stick around.

Labor may just spend longer unelectable before dying or reforming.
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Old 24th May 2017, 11:25 PM   #995
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
If the trend holds until the election, it could even be a victory for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

It's a sizable IF though. It also depends on the results from the terrorist attack. Two competing forces are at play, rally around the flag and inability to keep UK safe. The first one favors the Conservatives and is probably the stronger, the second favors Labour.

The election is Mays' to lose.

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Old 25th May 2017, 03:10 AM   #996
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
If the trend holds until the election, it could even be a victory for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

It's a sizable IF though. It also depends on the results from the terrorist attack. Two competing forces are at play, rally around the flag and inability to keep UK safe. The first one favors the Conservatives and is probably the stronger, the second favors Labour.

The election is Mays' to lose.

McHrozni
Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.

There's also the tendency for a measurable percentage of people to switch back to Conservative in the polling booth.

I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening
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Old 25th May 2017, 03:45 AM   #997
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.
I'm an incurable optimist and I'm happy to see Labour gaining at the expense of UKIP At least in theory.

Sure if Labour is to win, it needs to garnish support from Conservatives as well. I hope that'll happen, but chances of that are quite low (but different than zero).

Quote:
I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening
Oh it can. One more U-turn and it's a tossup. She sure looks incompetent enough (or determined to sabotage Brexit enough, I'm not giving up on that one ).

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Old 25th May 2017, 03:49 AM   #998
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.

There's also the tendency for a measurable percentage of people to switch back to Conservative in the polling booth.

I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening
The poll data I saw was definitely Tory losing to labour but can't remember the source. Maybe that was only in wales? Which poll are you looking at?
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Old 25th May 2017, 04:29 AM   #999
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The Guardian's poll of polls does show a Labour uptick, but it shows a Tory one as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...is-in-the-lead

ETA: the BBC one shows the gap narrowing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354
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Old 25th May 2017, 04:55 AM   #1000
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Oh it can. One more U-turn and it's a tossup. She sure looks incompetent enough (or determined to sabotage Brexit enough, I'm not giving up on that one ).

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Yeah but if she does **** it up, then Jeremy Corbyn and his team will be leading the Brexit negotiations
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