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Tags Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 19th April 2017, 12:16 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Just so you know, if you don't support May, you're a "saboteur":

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experi...6d71441e76.jpg
And the Sun is running the headline "Blue Murder".

It's almost as if one dead MP is not enough for them.
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:17 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
And the Sun is running the headline "Blue Murder".

It's almost as if one dead MP is not enough for them.
You're really reaching if you think that "Blue Murder" is inflammatory.
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:17 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Big deal. The tabloid press, Murdoch in particular, has always opposed Labor in Australia. It hasn't stopped it from being elected roughly every second election. It's lazy and dishonest to blame the press for Labour's demise.
In the US both parties have a tendacy to blame the press for their defeats.
With the GOP it's "The Liberal Media" (Trump's "Fake News" is just a variation on this);
With the Democrats it's the evil Right Wing media;they blame Fox News and Rush Limbaugh for every setback they have.
IMHO it is a cheap way to try to excuse away your mistakes.
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:28 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by DreadNiK View Post
presumably the 'until the last election' part was the result of the coalition?.........
Not at all. The very opposite in fact. The coalition was pretty much exactly where my very centrist politics lies: socially liberal, economically/ fiscally conservative. I personally would welcome Lib-Con coalitions more often. I would also welcome the Lib Dems replacing Labour as HM Opposition, or at least, I would have done with the last couple of iterations of Lib Dem leadership. Not so sure now, although anyone would be better than Corbyn's Labour in that role.
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:29 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
You're really reaching if you think that "Blue Murder" is inflammatory.
Wait for the Erdogan link..........
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:42 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
When you consider the results per constituency in 2015, there was only one seat (Berwickshire) where the SNP won with a small margin (less than 1,000 votes), while the Tory seat (Dumfriesshire) was also marginal and the LibDem seat (Orkneys&Shetlands) as well. And in the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP only solidified its support. Seeing that go away seems wishful thinking.

It's probably more about narrative. In 2015 the SNP hit a sweet spot it's unlikely to repeat quite so spectacularly. That election happened after the huge rise in support for the SNP but before the unionist element of the Labour vote had collapsed towards the Conservatives in the way it has since. The party got 50% of the vote in that election and is currently polling around 47%.

So it's quite likely that it will slip back slightly from the 2015 mark. My friend Calum who is MP for Berwickshire may well lose his seat (which won't faze him too much personally as he was finding the London commitments a bit wearing as he has a young family). There could be one or two more. We don't know if the seats won by the two SNP MPs who subsequently lost the party whip can be retained by the new candidates.

Ian Murray won Edinburgh South for Labour on the back of the Tory vote going to him tactically. They may do that again, thought it's bucking the trend elsewhere in Scotland which is for the section of the Labour vote that hasn't already gone SNP to go Tory.

Alistair Carmichael is a proven liar who has disgraced his office, but the Northern Isles seem to vote LibDem on some sort of spinal reflex so he may hold on again.

In my own constituency of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale we have the solitary Tory. Lots of people gloating that he'll go, as he won by a smaller margin than the Green vote last time and the Greens have sensibly decided not to stand this time, but it'll be tough. We need a seriously heavyweight Big Beast candidate and I don't know who we can scrape up. (Well, I do know actually and he says he's considering it, but he didn't sound too enthusiastic so maybe that idea is a bust.)

So yes, the SNP could end up on maybe 53 or 54 seats instead of 56. And on 47% of the vote instead of 50%. And May intends to narrate that as a fall in support and "no mandate" and the SNP doing really badly. Even though she can only dream of polling 47% and getting (proportionately) that number of seats. This happened last year too, when the SNP actually increased its share of the Holyrood vote and the number of constituencies won over 2011 but because of the vagaries of the top-up system ended up with slightly fewer MSPs overall than before. This was then reported as Sturgeon having "lost her mandate".

Because the SNP got an absolute fluke of an unbelievable victory, any fall-back from this point, no matter how slight, will be spun as a loss. They're now saying Sturgeon has no mandate in Holyrood because she doesn't have an overall majority in an electoral system specifically designed to prevent overall majorities, just because the SNP fluked it once.

The SNP will do eyepoppingly well in June by any normal metric, it will do better in Scotland than the Conservatives do in England and it will knock the Conservatives in Scotland out of the park. However it will be spun as a loss and a rejection of another independence referendum and so on. And if the Conservatives do a bit better in Scotland than they did in 2015 that will be spun as an enormous victory and Scotland embracing the Tories and so on, even though they're still beaten into a cocked hat by the SNP.

We'll just get on with things anyway.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 19th April 2017 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:18 PM   #247
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Dear lord, elections. Yet another reason I'll be seeing endless Ms. May on the tele, much to my grim dismay. Please stop being in the news, madame, I beg of you, enough.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:23 PM   #248
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So the turkeys not only voted for Xmas but head turkey Corbyn is making plans for his summer holidays.

It simply beggars belief, this is the political equivalent of the charge of the Light Brigade, any number of those Labour MPs who voted for this must know they are going to lose their seats and yet they've voted in favour of May's desperate desire to undermine any parliamentary accountability for her actions in the Brexit negotiations.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:25 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Dear lord, elections. Yet another reason I'll be seeing endless Ms. May on the tele, much to my grim dismay. Please stop being in the news, madame, I beg of you, enough.
Oh don't worry she's already said she won't participate in any TV debates. but don't dare suggest she's high handed or authoritarian.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:28 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
So the turkeys not only voted for Xmas but head turkey Corbyn is making plans for his summer holidays.

It simply beggars belief, this is the political equivalent of the charge of the Light Brigade, any number of those Labour MPs who voted for this must know they are going to lose their seats and yet they've voted in favour of May's desperate desire to undermine any parliamentary accountability for her actions in the Brexit negotiations.

Honestly...........a working majority of 16 means 8 of her backbenchers can conspire to kybosch the whole 2 year long negotiations. There is also the Lords/ Parliament Act/ Manifesto point. Tell me, in May's situation what would YOU do?
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Old 19th April 2017, 02:36 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Honestly...........a working majority of 16 means 8 of her backbenchers can conspire to kybosch the whole 2 year long negotiations. There is also the Lords/ Parliament Act/ Manifesto point. Tell me, in May's situation what would YOU do?
If you think what May is doing is morally and ethically okay, well then there's little point in answering your question.
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Old 19th April 2017, 02:51 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
If you think what May is doing is morally and ethically okay, well then there's little point in answering your question.
Look, you may not agree with May’s policies. You may in fact think that they will be terrible.

However, the above is a separate issue to whether she is under any moral or legal obligation to “go easy” on Labour when it comes to timing her appeal to the electorate. The obligation is on Labour to be a credible, effective opposition and not a flock of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

May is being a politician. Corbyn is failing both at being a politician and an opposition and thus is also failing the British people.
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:04 PM   #253
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Once again, what is May doing that is different then any other PM who called for a new election at a time he or she thought would give an advantage to their party? Standard Tactic IMHO.
And whatever rules were put in place to keep this from happening, have failed miserably.
If you don't like this kind of crap, consider going to fixed terms for PM's.
I dislike May a lot, but don't get why this is so reprehensible.
Do you think a Labor PM in the same situation would not do the same thing?
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:11 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
No, yours. The fact that under the convention, if a measure isn't in a manifesto, the Lords are entitled to block its passage means that your first sentence "it doesn't hold water" (referring to my comment on the role of the Parliament Act) is patently wrong. As you point out, that refusal by the Lords can eventually be over-ruled by the Commons invoking the Parliament Act, but that has hardly ever happened.
You try to gloss over the fact that it's a CONVENTION, not a law. Conventions can be broken, and that is illustrated by the fact that the LibDems announced in 2005 that they didn't feel bound by the Salisbury Convention. So, the Lords can actually go against the convention and say No to a proposed Brexit treaty.

The fact that the Commons have only seven times since 1911 overruled the Lords is also no convincing argument: we're dealing here, after all, with the most important legislation in a generation; and if the Lords would reject it, surely the Tory leadership will give the vote to overrule it a five-line whip.

Lastly, I think you overblow the whole issue. Right now, May can go into the election with explicitly Brexit in the manifesto. But in 2015, the Tories went into the election with the Brexit referendum in the manifesto. Did they promise that referendum just for fun? Brexit is the direct outcome of what they promised in the manifesto. Maybe they didn't write in the manifesto explicitly "and if the referendum yields leave, we'll actually leave the EU", but that's really hairsplitting.
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:20 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Look, you may not agree with May’s policies. You may in fact think that they will be terrible.

However, the above is a separate issue to whether she is under any moral or legal obligation to “go easy” on Labour when it comes to timing her appeal to the electorate.
This is nothing to do with Labour, the fact is the woman doesn't even think she can get her own parliamentary party to back her plans. If May had won the court battle over article 50 I don't for one minute believe this election would be happening. She simply cannot tolerate the idea that her plans might be subjected to proper parliamentary scrutiny, so she wants a whole bunch of newbie backbenchers who will shut up and vote as they are told.
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:33 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
You're really reaching if you think that "Blue Murder" is inflammatory.
Oh, it refers to oddly-coloured crows?

Next to it it says "PM's snap poll will kill off Labour". You may say that's meant figuratively, but there's literally a ton of people out there who can't quite make the distinction between figuratively and literally.

It's at the least very offensive.

Oh, and the Daily Mail headline "Crush the Saboteurs" is a quote from Lenin.
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:44 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Er no, you seem to be getting your political extremists mixed up. The Daily Mail is as it has always been a very right wing paper, it is using the tactics of the right wing as it has always done, do not forget this is the paper that supported Mosley, black is very much their colour.
McHrozni is actually right here. The Daily Mail headline is a quote from Lenin, and we all know what he did with saboteurs.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...urned-leninist:
Quote:
In 1918, the Bolsheviks dissolved Russia’s democractically elected constituent assembly on the grounds that it was a front for the bourgeois counter-revolution. “All power to the Soviets!” Lenin declared. “We shall crush the saboteurs.”
It's quite ironic.
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Old 19th April 2017, 03:58 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Oh, it refers to oddly-coloured crows?

Next to it it says "PM's snap poll will kill off Labour". You may say that's meant figuratively, but there's literally a ton of people out there who can't quite make the distinction between figuratively and literally.

It's at the least very offensive.
.
There aren't enough rolleyes for this.
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Old 19th April 2017, 04:04 PM   #259
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After pmqs today where may managed to answer no questions, again, Tory polling is up to 48%, and that's with the refusal to do debates.

Interesting article in the grauniad, espousing David Miliband as leader with call me dave's policies as a winner, ignoring the fact Tony Blair's lurch to the center right got labour into the current situation.

A look at twitter, the main reasons to not vote labour appears to be blairs single-handed/lapdog bombing of Afghanistan and Iraq, let's forget Libya and Syria, while corbyn's refusal to use nuclear weapons is the other main factor.
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Old 19th April 2017, 04:33 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Oh, it refers to oddly-coloured crows?

Next to it it says "PM's snap poll will kill off Labour". You may say that's meant figuratively, but there's literally a ton of people out there who can't quite make the distinction between figuratively and literally.

It's at the least very offensive.

Oh, and the Daily Mail headline "Crush the Saboteurs" is a quote from Lenin.
Jesus wept.
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Old 19th April 2017, 09:00 PM   #261
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Question from an outsider...What is actually different about the electorate? Is it a more energized base? Are people actually willing to switch the party they voted for so soon?

I'm not British, so I have a lot of trouble imagining switching my vote so soon.
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Old 19th April 2017, 10:11 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Oh, it refers to oddly-coloured crows?

Next to it it says "PM's snap poll will kill off Labour". You may say that's meant figuratively, but there's literally a ton of people out there who can't quite make the distinction between figuratively and literally.

It's at the least very offensive.
Just in case you really are unfamiliar with the phrase:

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/di...sh/blue-murder
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Old 19th April 2017, 10:33 PM   #263
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I wonder how high the vote might be, the council elections are 4 days before. The average UK citizen hates multiple voting. If the turnout is low then she may a get a shock as remain voters maybe more disenchanted with her at present and therefore more likely to turn out to vote and to exercise a non Tory vote. I suspect the Greens and the Lib Dems might do better than expected if that is the case. Of course none of the EU citizens resident in the U.K. have a vote in a GE so she doesn't have to worry about the turnout of the 3 milllion.
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Old 19th April 2017, 10:55 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Dear lord, elections. Yet another reason I'll be seeing endless Ms. May on the tele, much to my grim dismay. Please stop being in the news, madame, I beg of you, enough.
Please consider Ms May's refusal to appear on TV debates a direct response to your appeal to see less of her.

ETA

See someone got there first.
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Old 19th April 2017, 10:59 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
McHrozni is actually right here. The Daily Mail headline is a quote from Lenin, and we all know what he did with saboteurs.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...urned-leninist:

It's quite ironic.
No he isn't right. The headline is a right wing tactic by an always right wing paper.
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Old 19th April 2017, 11:25 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
........
Lastly, I think you overblow the whole issue. Right now, May can go into the election with explicitly Brexit in the manifesto. But in 2015, the Tories went into the election with the Brexit referendum in the manifesto. Did they promise that referendum just for fun? Brexit is the direct outcome of what they promised in the manifesto. Maybe they didn't write in the manifesto explicitly "and if the referendum yields leave, we'll actually leave the EU", but that's really hairsplitting.
No, that really is not hairsplitting. It was government policy (explicit in the manifesto) to remain in the EU. Therefore the Lords would be perfectly entitled to vote that way rather than support the deal that had been negotiated over 2 years. The government is in a minority in the Lords, and the Lords has a large majority in support of membership of the EU. This is not the minor issue that you wish it to be.
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Old 19th April 2017, 11:27 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
........Next to it it says "PM's snap poll will kill off Labour". You may say that's meant figuratively, but there's literally a ton of people out there who can't quite make the distinction between figuratively and literally.

It's at the least very offensive........
This is a Poe, surely. It's beyond ridiculous.
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Old 19th April 2017, 11:31 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Question from an outsider...What is actually different about the electorate? Is it a more energized base? Are people actually willing to switch the party they voted for so soon?

I'm not British, so I have a lot of trouble imagining switching my vote so soon.
There are higher and higher percentages of people who will vote differently from not only their parents and community, but how they've voted in the past. We have a wide choice of serious parties to vote for, plus some single issue and outright silly parties, and I guess most people will enter an election having 2, or maybe even 3, that they would consider voting for, and at least one or two that they wouldn't vote for in any circumstance.
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Old 19th April 2017, 11:33 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by MCel58 View Post
I wonder how high the vote might be, the council elections are 4 days before........
No, the council elections are on the 4th of May, the GE on the 8th of June. The council elections aren't all across the country.
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Old 19th April 2017, 11:40 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by imodium View Post
...... ignoring the fact Tony Blair's lurch to the center right got labour into the current situation........
Conveniently forgetting that Blair won 3 elections, was the only Labour leader ever to win consecutive elections, and will be the last-but-one Labour prime minister for probably decades, as a direct result of Labour forgetting that elections in Britain are always, but always, won on the centre ground.

Blair shouldn't be excoriated for being a winner and for understanding what a modern centre left party looks like. He should be excoriated for what he did in Iraq and with tuition fees, but not for doing the only sensible thing and moving Labour to the centre left. Not being competitive anywhere in southern Britain other than in the heart of London is a ridiculous way of trying to gain power, and that is precisely what Blair understood, and Corbyn ignores.
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Old 20th April 2017, 12:32 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Conveniently forgetting that Blair won 3 elections, was the only Labour leader ever to win consecutive elections, and will be the last-but-one Labour prime minister for probably decades, as a direct result of Labour forgetting that elections in Britain are always, but always, won on the centre ground.

Blair shouldn't be excoriated for being a winner and for understanding what a modern centre left party looks like. He should be excoriated for what he did in Iraq and with tuition fees, but not for doing the only sensible thing and moving Labour to the centre left. Not being competitive anywhere in southern Britain other than in the heart of London is a ridiculous way of trying to gain power, and that is precisely what Blair understood, and Corbyn ignores.
Except of course nobody says this about the Tories who happily lurch right with great support from the peanut gallery while not being competitive anywhere in 'northern Britain' and that's just fine.

Blair may well have known what a centre left party looks like, unfortunately what he created was a centre right party
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Old 20th April 2017, 01:38 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Question from an outsider...What is actually different about the electorate? Is it a more energized base? Are people actually willing to switch the party they voted for so soon?

I'm not British, so I have a lot of trouble imagining switching my vote so soon.
The system over here is far less polarised than in the US, and the 'centre' ground in the US would be considered very right of centre in the UK. It is always noteworthy to me that 'liberal' in the US is considered by some to be an insult, whereas in the UK, most parties would claim to be 'liberal' to some extent, and view it as a positive.

The electoral system makes a difference as well, the Prime Minister comes to power through a very different system to the US, so people view their vote in a different way.

Our parties are much closer together, and while there are certainly those who would never consider voting Tory or Labour, who they *will* vote for is less certain.

Of course, these are generalities, there are many who will only ever vote for one party, regardless of the candidate, and almost nothing will change that, just as in the US.
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:21 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Question from an outsider...What is actually different about the electorate? Is it a more energized base? Are people actually willing to switch the party they voted for so soon?

I'm not British, so I have a lot of trouble imagining switching my vote so soon.
I will be switching my vote. Two years ago I voted Conservative, at that time they were the closest match to my opinions. In this election I will be voting Lib Dem. Not that I see them as having a chance of winning the whole election, however, I do not agree with Mrs May approach to Brexit and their softer approach is closer to mine (remain). I also do not appreciate being told by MP, when asked for the fact based benefits of Brexit, that "the time for that has passed - it's going to be wonderful - just listen to Mrs May isn't she marvelous! Bye"*.

If anyone will change their mind, I suspect it is due the the fact that either the leader of the party they voted for changed (and they don't like them for reasons) or the path the party is taking has changed.



*Paraphrased

Last edited by Greebo; 20th April 2017 at 02:26 AM. Reason: typos
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:26 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
I will be switching my vote. Two years ago I voted Conservative, at that time they were the closest match to my opinions. In this election I will be voting Lib Dem. Not that I see them as having a chance of winning the whole election, however, I do not agree with Mrs May approach to Brexit and their softer approach is closer to mine (remain). I also do not appreciate being told by MP, when asked for the fact based benefits of Brexit, that "the time for that has passed - it's going to be wonderful - just listen to Mrs May isn't she marvelous! Bye"*.



*Paraphrased


This has been the substance of the entire campaign. It continues to be mental and will only continue to be more so.

My faint hope is a Libdem surge of epic, unfeasible proportions.
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:43 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm really not sure it's going to be in their hands. I also don't think they'll get away with the old trick of being everything to everyone, either.......saying X in one constituency and the complete polar opposite in another. Being avid Remainers isn't going to help them with a bunch of retired people in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset.......and Farron really doesn't have any gravitas at all. At least old Paddy could wrinkle his forehead and appear deep and thoughtful.
However, the recent (massive) reduction in money to (say) Cornwall has caused a number of ructions out there. All along the lines of "we were promised etc etc" re: matching Euro money. That's a rich seam for the Lib Dems, IMO. The people down there have already been hit (in their minds).

Can't disagree about Farron, though.
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:48 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
I will be switching my vote. Two years ago I voted Conservative, at that time they were the closest match to my opinions. In this election I will be voting Lib Dem. Not that I see them as having a chance of winning the whole election, however, I do not agree with Mrs May approach to Brexit and their softer approach is closer to mine (remain).
Farron doesn't have a 'softer' approach, he wants to reverse Article 50. All along he's tried to block Brexit and has called for a second referendum. Any vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to inject confusion into the issue, and regardless of your view on Brexit that's not going to help anybody.
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:54 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I thought the Private Eye expression was "tired and emotional"?
Different reference.
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Old 20th April 2017, 02:57 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Jesus. If this is true UK is making a very dark, Soviet turn. Is this accurate or a parody?

McHrozni
It's very much Daily Mail and that's Maydolf Hitler on the front page.
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:00 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Farron doesn't have a 'softer' approach, he wants to reverse Article 50. All along he's tried to block Brexit and has called for a second referendum. Any vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to inject confusion into the issue, and regardless of your view on Brexit that's not going to help anybody.
Why does Brexit mean Brexit but opposition to it isn't going to help anybody because it's "confusion"?
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:01 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Oh don't worry she's already said she won't participate in any TV debates. but don't dare suggest she's high handed or authoritarian.
Seems to be re-considering now that the BBC and ITV have said they'll empty-chair her, although it would have been funnier if they'd threatened to emulate the Rt Hon Tub Of Lard MP, say with a pair of shoes.

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