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Tags Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 20th April 2017, 07:46 AM   #321
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Are you arguing that she wants to explicitly put the government's policy on Brexit in the manifesto in order to prevent the Lords from delaying the passage of the Brexit bill?
Yes.
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Old 20th April 2017, 07:53 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
No, this is a mandate, and a clearer one is difficult to realistically imagine:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/29...e-know-so-far/
Except, as shown in point 4, the majority of these people seem to be expecting a Brexit which gives them a pony.
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Old 20th April 2017, 07:57 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Except, as shown in point 4, the majority of these people seem to be expecting a Brexit which gives them a pony.

By the gods, that's depressing.



"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."
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Old 20th April 2017, 08:02 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
He we go, all the proles are too stupid to see 'the truth' and therefore voted for Brexit. That canard got washed up last year.
"Washed up the canard"? Are you trying to add credence to your "stupid" theory?

Quote:
No, things that are definitely going to happen will happen. That's what definitely means.
What does the expression I used mean? To refresh your memory, it was "some things".
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Old 20th April 2017, 08:14 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Except, as shown in point 4, the majority of these people seem to be expecting a Brexit which gives them a pony.
People want the best outcome. There's no surprise there, it's still a mandate and a massive one at that.

Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
"Washed up the canard"? Are you trying to add credence to your "stupid" theory?
No, stupid is better illustrated by people who refuse to accept that they're not going to get what they want and prefer to tear their garments and wail as opposed to accepting our position and working productively for the future.

Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
What does the expression I used mean? To refresh your memory, it was "some things".
Yes, you said, "Some things that are definitely going to happen might not happen", which is obvious nonsense.
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Old 20th April 2017, 08:30 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
People want the best outcome.


No, stupid is better illustrated by people who refuse to accept that they're not going to get what they want and prefer to tear their garments and wail as opposed to accepting our position and working productively for the future.
These two comments are closely related.
The people in the above survey are not going to get their pony...yet they don't seem to want to accept that situation.

In any case, if you think someone is doing something mind-bogglingly dim it might be worth pointing that out.
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Old 20th April 2017, 08:33 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
These two comments are closely related.
The people in the above survey are not going to get their pony...yet they don't seem to want to accept that situation.
How do you know what they'll get?

And in what way don't they want to accept the situation (the situation being a prediction of an event that has not happened and cannot be predicted)?
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Old 20th April 2017, 08:38 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
These two comments are closely related.
The people in the above survey are not going to get their pony...yet they don't seem to want to accept that situation.

In any case, if you think someone is doing something mind-bogglingly dim it might be worth pointing that out.
Look sonny, We voted to shoot ourselves in the foot so do something productive and get loading the shotguns or are you a traitor????
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:01 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Just in case you really are unfamiliar with the phrase:

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/di...sh/blue-murder
Thank you. Yes, I am (eh, was until your post) unfamiliar with that phrase. I'm a bit at a loss why the Sun would decry May's early elections, but I retract what I said about this headline.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:06 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
People want the best outcome. There's no surprise there, it's still a mandate and a massive one at that.



No, stupid is better illustrated by people who refuse to accept that they're not going to get what they want and prefer to tear their garments and wail as opposed to accepting our position and working productively for the future.
Some people get what they want, and Le Pen is neither a prole nor a moron.
French TV channel TF1 removed a European Union flag from its studio after far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen insisted only the French flag should be visible behind her during an interview with the broadcaster.

According to local media, TF1 agreed to remove the flag Tuesday night after Le Pen said in a statement that she was campaigning to be the president of France, “not of the European Commission.”

Le Pen added in the statement that the EU “did great harm” to France and its citizens.
Well I think Brexit will do much harm to British and other EU citizens, and if Le Pen is entitled to fight for her opinions, so are her opponents; and we won't be browbeaten or bamboozled into acquiescence.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:14 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
No, that really is not hairsplitting. It was government policy (explicit in the manifesto) to remain in the EU. Therefore the Lords would be perfectly entitled to vote that way rather than support the deal that had been negotiated over 2 years. The government is in a minority in the Lords, and the Lords has a large majority in support of membership of the EU. This is not the minor issue that you wish it to be.
Let's look at the Conservative Party manifesto 2015. Their EU stance starts on page 72 (74th page in the PDF). The headline is "Real change in our relationship with the European Union". Then the first bullet point is
Quote:
give you a say over whether we should stay in or leave the EU, with an in-out referendum by the end of 2017
and then the first paragraph:
Quote:
The EU needs to change. And it is time for the British people – not politicians – to have their say. Only the Conservative Party will deliver real change and real choice on Europe, with an in-out referendum by the end of 2017
and the last paragraph on that first page ends with:
Quote:
David Cameron has committed that he will only lead a government that offers an in-out referendum. We will hold that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect the outcome
Furthermore, there's a splash on that page that reads:
Quote:
We believe in letting the people decide: so we will hold an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU before the end of 2017
On the next page it reads, as first point of their plan of action:
Quote:
We will let you decide whether to stay in or leave the EU We will legislate in the first session of the next Parliament for an in-out referendum to be held on Britain’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017. We will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in the EU. And then we will ask the British people whether they want to stay in on this basis, or leave. We will honour the result of the referendum, whatever the outcome
And whatever you think of that, that's exactly what David Cameron has done. It's all spelled out in detail in the 2015 manifesto.

So, no, a new 2017 manifesto will not give May extra protection from opposition from the Lords under the Salisbury Convention. And I can only repeat again: it's still only a convention, they may ignore it.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:14 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
How do you know what they'll get?

And in what way don't they want to accept the situation (the situation being a prediction of an event that has not happened and cannot be predicted)?
We haven't left yet...
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:17 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Seems to be re-considering now that the BBC and ITV have said they'll empty-chair her, although it would have been funnier if they'd threatened to emulate the Rt Hon Tub Of Lard MP, say with a pair of shoes.
Or with a comedian who does an over-the-top imitation of May.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:20 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Some people get what they want, and Le Pen is neither a prole nor a moron.
French TV channel TF1 removed a European Union flag from its studio after far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen insisted only the French flag should be visible behind her during an interview with the broadcaster.

According to local media, TF1 agreed to remove the flag Tuesday night after Le Pen said in a statement that she was campaigning to be the president of France, “not of the European Commission.”

Le Pen added in the statement that the EU “did great harm” to France and its citizens.
Well I think Brexit will do much harm to British and other EU citizens, and if Le Pen is entitled to fight for her opinions, so are her opponents; and we won't be browbeaten or bamboozled into acquiescence.
What has Le Pen to do with Brexit?
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:22 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
We haven't left yet...
Only in the same way as you've signed the contract but not yet had delivery of the car. Or, in remoaners' terms, you've jumped off the cliff but you haven't yet hit the bottom.

(Not sure how your post was relevant to my point, BTW).
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:38 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
In this case, I would say it is the sensitive position that her government has put Britain in regarding Brexit. She already has a majority, so why bother with an election? Because she thinks she is assured of a bigger majority? Well, okay, but I think it's a silly gamble, and therefore on the face of it an arrogant one.
In order to stifle dissent about the Brexit course within her own ranks. There are enough Tory MPs who are unhappy with her hard-Brexit approach. A bigger majority means that she doesn't have to bother about.

OTOH, Sean O'Grady in the Independent argues that May does it to stifle the hard-Brexiteer Tory MPs. So, her hard-line approach this far has been a ploy to keep them happy? That seems a bit of a CT.

Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Actually, the more I think about it, the more it's win/win for Ms May.

Either she gains an unassailable majority and can do what she likes or it all goes horribly wrong and she can slink away quietly without too much of the failure attaching itself to her.
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the Tories don't win a majority. So May has to continue on governing, or she has to try and slink out with some lame excuse like "spending more time with the family", which then will be met with much ridicule.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:38 AM   #337
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Sorry, but if someone deliberately sets fire to the room both of us are locked into I am never going to stop complaining about it, no matter how often they tell me to shut up and help feed the fire.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:42 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
What has Le Pen to do with Brexit?
Plenty.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:45 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Le Pen has no influence whatsoever regarding Brexit. I have no idea why you've ignored the topic in favour of talking about her.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:48 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Are you arguing that she wants to explicitly put the government's policy on Brexit in the manifesto in order to prevent the Lords from delaying the passage of the Brexit bill?
Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes.
And how is that going to help?

"Dear Lords, we promised in our manifesto a free pony for every Brit and here's the lump of coal that Santa gave us. Please sign off".

The government's expectations of Brexit are wildly unrealistic. Concretely, they want continuance of the Common Market but a stop to free EU immigration. That is not going to happen.
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Old 20th April 2017, 09:56 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Le Pen has no influence whatsoever regarding Brexit. I have no idea why you've ignored the topic in favour of talking about her.
You are now being dishonest. You asked what she had to do with it. I answered. So you changed the question to what "influence" she had. Naughty, and pointless.

My topic was the validity of expressing opinions in the matter. If you have opinions, feel free to express them, and give other people the right to do the same.
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Old 20th April 2017, 10:00 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Sorry, but if someone deliberately sets fire to the room both of us are locked into I am never going to stop complaining about it, no matter how often they tell me to shut up and help feed the fire.

Very well put. I'm stealing that one, I'm afraid.
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Old 20th April 2017, 10:01 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
You are now being dishonest. You asked what she had to do with it. I answered. So you changed the question to what "influence" she had. Naughty, and pointless.
So what does she have to do with it? Does everyone who commented on Brexit now have something to do with Brexit? Shall we discuss Trump, Putin, Erdogan and the Pope too?

Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
My topic was the validity of expressing opinions in the matter. If you have opinions, feel free to express them, and give other people the right to do the same.
If you wanted to change topics then you shouldn't have quoted my post, because when you do that it's expected that the response will have some connection with the quoted text.
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Old 20th April 2017, 10:07 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Very well put. I'm stealing that one, I'm afraid.
No need to steal someone else's hysterical hyperbole when you could make up one of your own. For example:

"Ahem! (here you imagine me stepping onto a wooden box, splaying one hand on my chest and adopting the pained, earnest expression of a third-rate orator)

If the country is being invaded by Nazis who are murdering millions of innocent women and children, don't expect me to stay silent no matter how often I'm told to don a pair of jackboots and get shooting!"
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Old 20th April 2017, 10:32 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Let's look at the Conservative Party manifesto 2015. Their EU stance starts on page 72 (74th page in the PDF). The headline is "Real change in our relationship with the European Union". Then the first bullet point is

and then the first paragraph:

and the last paragraph on that first page ends with:

Furthermore, there's a splash on that page that reads:

On the next page it reads, as first point of their plan of action:

And whatever you think of that, that's exactly what David Cameron has done. It's all spelled out in detail in the 2015 manifesto.

So, no, a new 2017 manifesto will not give May extra protection from opposition from the Lords under the Salisbury Convention. And I can only repeat again: it's still only a convention, they may ignore it.
I'm sorry, but you have wasted your time. That manifesto says nothing about how Brexit will be dealt with, about access to the single market, about EU immigration, about UK post-Brexit fisheries and agriculture policy, and so on. There is absolutely nothing whatever in that list you have made which will be in the "exiting the EU" bill, and so your point, whatever it was, is spurious, and your final paragraph just plain flat-out wrong. Elsewhere in the manifesto, Cameron made it clear that he would be campaigning to remain.

I don't know where you live, ddt, but you may not understand this: longstanding conventions aren't ignored here. The Lords will work to this convention, whatever you want to happen.
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Old 20th April 2017, 10:34 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
And how is that going to help?

"Dear Lords, we promised in our manifesto a free pony for every Brit and here's the lump of coal that Santa gave us. Please sign off".

The government's expectations of Brexit are wildly unrealistic. Concretely, they want continuance of the Common Market but a stop to free EU immigration. That is not going to happen.
You demonstrate that you have no idea what you are talking about, but you are doing it in the wrong thread. How about talking about the UK election in the UK election thread? If you don't know the importance of government policy being in its manifesto, in terms of getting its business through the Lords, then you don't know anything at all.

It's been a whole page since you equated May with Erdogan. Don't you think we're due a reprise of that?
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:17 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
So what does she have to do with it? Does everyone who commented on Brexit now have something to do with Brexit? Shall we discuss Trump, Putin, Erdogan and the Pope too?
Read my link. The answers are in the linked article.
Quote:
If you wanted to change topics then you shouldn't have quoted my post, because when you do that it's expected that the response will have some connection with the quoted text.
That is mere gibberish.
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:25 AM   #348
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Upon seeing the cover of the Daily express cover my first thought was, 'far too late'
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:36 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Read my link. The answers are in the linked article.
I don't think I'll bother.
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Old 20th April 2017, 12:07 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes.
I think Mike G has got this exactly right plus it will basically stop any further Supreme Court actions as the key points of manifesto will be turned into the Queens speech.
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Old 20th April 2017, 01:16 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm sorry, but you have wasted your time. That manifesto says nothing about how Brexit will be dealt with, about access to the single market, about EU immigration, about UK post-Brexit fisheries and agriculture policy, and so on. There is absolutely nothing whatever in that list you have made which will be in the "exiting the EU" bill, and so your point, whatever it was, is spurious, and your final paragraph just plain flat-out wrong. Elsewhere in the manifesto, Cameron made it clear that he would be campaigning to remain.

I don't know where you live, ddt, but you may not understand this: longstanding conventions aren't ignored here. The Lords will work to this convention, whatever you want to happen.
Longstanding conventions aren't ignored here...Unless it suits the Tories.
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:11 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
You demonstrate that you have no idea what you are talking about, but you are doing it in the wrong thread. How about talking about the UK election in the UK election thread? If you don't know the importance of government policy being in its manifesto, in terms of getting its business through the Lords, then you don't know anything at all.
I'm at a loss why you think I'm arguing this in the wrong thread. It is germane to this thread, and it was you who raised the topic here in this thread.

And you evaded the question that I raised, so I'll try again.

The Salisbury Convention says the Lord cannot vote down a bill that was announced in the election manifesto. But the manifesto has to be specific on what the bill will entail. The Tories can't just write into the manifesto, in Trumpian fashion "we'll negotiate the bestest Brexit deal"; they'll have to say what that deal will contain.

So, let's look what the May government just two months ago announced as their intentions in the White Paper. I pick out just two points:
1) wide-ranging free trade with the EU
2) the UK has full control over immigration from the EU.
So, those points will also be in the Tory manifesto.

Fast forward to March 2019. After tough negotiations, May presents a Brexit bill that has
1) passporting for financial services, but no free trade for other services, nor for industrial or agricultural/fisheries goods
2) the UK must allow immigration of at least <insert 75% of current level> from the EU countries.
3) and the UK must pay the EU GBP 200mn/week for the privilege.

Obviously, this Brexit deal does not conform to the election promises in the manifesto, so it's also not subject to the Salisbury Convention.

I just made up those hypothetical negotiation outcomes; but the White Paper is totally unrealistic in its aims. It reads like a letter to Santa. No way that the UK government will achieve the goals outlined therein. So no matter how the negotiations exactly turn out, it will not look like what is in their manifesto, not even close, and thus the Brexit bill will not be subject to the Salisbury Convention.

Or, alternatively, the Tories would have to greatly turn down their expectations and write much, much more sober aims in their manifesto.
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:15 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Longstanding conventions aren't ignored here...Unless it suits the Tories.
Or the LibDems:
Quote:
Mr Farron was defending his decision to use the Liberal Democrats' 101 peers in the House of Lords to try to block the Conservative manifesto commitment to extend 'Right to Buy' to Housing Association tenants.
[...]
When challenged on whether he would respect the Salisbury Convention that means the House of Lords will not oppose the second or third reading of a manifesto commitment of a party with a Commons majority, Mr Farron said it was a "political stitch-up" and he would not abide by a "gentleman's pact between the old establishment parties".
[...]
Lord Newby, the Lib Dem Chief Whip in the House of Lords, said at the conference that the party can defeat the Government at will and will "misbehave" in Lords votes.
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:20 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Are you arguing that she wants to explicitly put the government's policy on Brexit in the manifesto in order to prevent the Lords from delaying the passage of the Brexit bill?
According to what she has said recently she couldn't do that because it would be bad for our negotiating positions... mind you that was a couple of weeks ago so her position is likely to be 180 degrees different now..
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:24 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes.
Even though she has insisted she couldn't even tell parliament her Brexit negotiation plan?
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Old 20th April 2017, 03:49 PM   #356
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Corbyn spends the morning explaining how much and just how money would be taken back from tax dodgers while pointing out there won't be a second referendum, brexit means brexit (lol).
Result is a +4 gain for the tories in the nightly polls.
Ye olde analogy of turkeys not voting for christmas is being rethunk.
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Old 20th April 2017, 04:26 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
According to what she has said recently she couldn't do that because it would be bad for our negotiating positions... mind you that was a couple of weeks ago so her position is likely to be 180 degrees different now..
A couple of weeks is a long, long time in politics.
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Old 20th April 2017, 05:14 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
The Lib Dems, or Tim Farron at least, wants to stop Brexit, not temper it. All this talk of opposing hard Brexit only popped up yesterday, clearly in an effort to win people over for the election. Prior to that Farron was hell bent on stopping it altogether.
Is not "hard" or "soft" Brexit dependent on the reaction of the EU i.e. just a negotiating strategy and can never really be policy (for election) since one does not have the power to impose it unopposed since the oppose is the EU whose game plan is as yet, unknown.
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Old 20th April 2017, 05:21 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes.
Well then I shall admit it is more reasonable than my initial response allowed.
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Old 20th April 2017, 05:28 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
Is not "hard" or "soft" Brexit dependent on the reaction of the EU i.e. just a negotiating strategy and can never really be policy (for election) since one does not have the power to impose it unopposed since the oppose is the EU whose game plan is as yet, unknown.
I would think a soft Brexit is more contingent on the good will of the EU than a hard one. It depends on what the U.K. wants the EU to keep doing (such as residency rights for British ex-pats in Europe including access to healthcare) and whether certain protectionist policies would keep out or increase costs on British goods etc...
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