Passing Peak Trump?

[hgc]

First of all, yes this topic needs its own thread. This is about the long-term trend in Donald Trump's position in this race relative to the competition for the GOP nomination.

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage. The purpose of this thread is to track Trump's progress in poll standings and speculate on his evolving chances of being the nominee.

I'm not saying that Trump is definitely not going to win this nomination. But if he's not going to win it, then we will see a slide somewhere, sometime. Has that slide started now? Trump is a creature of the obsessive coverage by the political and entertainment media, which is a milieu where he generally is the most capable exploiter of the features of the landscape. But when the media coverage starts to slacken, if for no other reason than that the entertainment gets stale, he's probably going to suffer in his popularity.

Thoughts?

[Ladewig]

Thoughts?

Yes. Given that the general Trump thread already has several posts asserting "Now, it's over. This is the beginning of the end," I really don't see the need for a separate thread for more of those posts.

[marplots]

His only competition is Donald Trump - whether today's Donald can be more outrageous than yesterday's.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by marplots

His only competition is Donald Trump - whether today's Donald can be more outrageous than yesterday's.

I don't know if he has to be more outrageous. But it seems to me he has to provide a lot of variety in his shtick if he's going to go the distance. The repetitive nature of his self-aggrandizement and insult comic routine is going to drive the entertainment consumers to greener pastures.

Today I'm hearing that Hillary Clinton is shrill and that Marco Rubio sweats a lot for a young guy. That's interspersed with his refusal to discuss Obama's nationality because he's going to focus on jobs, blah blah blah.

[dudalb]

His not being able to turn the second GOP debate into the Donald Trump show seems to have rattled him badly.
And he seems to be doubling down on his most outrageous statements...the sure sign of a Comedian whose shtick has gotten old and cannot come up with anything new.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by hgc

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage.

The Donald disputes that and he's furious with reporters for covering that fact:

Donald Trump says he didn’t speak to a half-empty room. But he did.

Trump lashes out at AP photographer who snapped empty chairs

[Puppycow]

Quote from the Politico article above:

Quote:

On Wednesday, he said he would no longer appear on Fox News, which responded that Trump "doesn’t seem to grasp that candidates telling journalists what to ask is not how the media works in this country.”

Another spat with Fox News.


More from the Washington post here:

Donald Trump apparently wants to sue and complain his way to the presidency

Quote:

The latest: Trump wants the Federal Communications Commission to fine Fox News pundit Rich Lowry, the editor of the conservative magazine National Review, for using a colorful locker room metaphor Wednesday night to describe how former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina handled Trump in the second GOP presidential debate. Fiorina, Lowry said, basically cut off a piece (or two) of Trump's anatomy — rhetorically speaking.

Trump didn't take too kindly to the metaphorical discussion of his private parts.

Quote:

When conservative outside group Club for Growth started to run ads attacking your decidedly populist economic stance (you've said you want to raise taxes on the wealthy), your campaign issued a cease-and-desist letter threatening a multimillion-dollar defamation lawsuit if the group doesn't abide.

He threatened a defamation lawsuit for essentially an attack ad. One which, I think, Citizens United makes perfectly within the rules.
Yep, sounds like his MO.

Donald Trump’s slide in the polls is beginning to look real

This one may be premature. It's based on 4 recent polls from different polling companies. I'll wait to see a few more polls, but it does already appear that "Peak Trump" may be over. But his RCP polling average is down 6.5 points since the middle of September. It also seems to indicate that we may have passed Peak Carson too. His average is down about 4 points since the middle of the month.

[Brainster]

This is part and parcel of the sine wave coverage of politics; I am anticipating the inevitable "Comeback Clinton" stories when (or if) Hillary has a couple good days.

Trump is a classic "never going to happen" candidate, albeit with a little more name recognition than Herman Cain, who was leading in the polls at a similar point in 2011. Fiorina is another.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Brainster

Trump is a classic "never going to happen" candidate, albeit with a little more name recognition than Herman Cain, who was leading in the polls at a similar point in 2011. Fiorina is another.

Well they've all outlasted Scott Walker who was supposed to be a serious contender.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

"Trump didn't take too kindly to the metaphorical discussion of his private parts."

I figure Fiorina didn't take too kindly to the discussion of her face, so suck it up, Trump.

[varwoche]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

The Donald disputes that and he's furious with reporters for covering that fact:

Donald Trump says he didn’t speak to a half-empty room. But he did.

Trump lashes out at AP photographer who snapped empty chairs

As some will say, including members of this forum, when Trump says these fantastically false things, he's not lying; he believes what he's saying. As if being delusional is better than being a liar.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by varwoche

As some will say, including members of this forum, when Trump says these fantastically false things, he's not lying; he believes what he's saying. As if being delusional is better than being a liar.

I don't think he's exactly delusional. I think it's more of a case that the truth value of his utterances is not a thing he recognizes as relevant. His motivation is always self-interest. Yes, he may understand on some level the concepts of truth and lying, but he doesn't really get why they matter in human communication.

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by hgc

I don't think he's exactly delusional. I think it's more of a case that the truth value of his utterances is not a thing he recognizes as relevant. His motivation is always self-interest. Yes, he may understand on some level the concepts of truth and lying, but he doesn't really get why they matter in human communication.

An intriguing take on the matter.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Brainster

This is part and parcel of the sine wave coverage of politics; I am anticipating the inevitable "Comeback Clinton" stories when (or if) Hillary has a couple good days.

Trump is a classic "never going to happen" candidate, albeit with a little more name recognition than Herman Cain, who was leading in the polls at a similar point in 2011. Fiorina is another.

Add Ben Carson to that list.
Fiorina will not get the nomination,but she is on Veep radar big time.
My own suspiscion is when althougg the GOP voters will waltz with every candidate in the room, in the end they will go home with Jeb or maybe Mario.

[dudalb]

Trump is a equal opportunith insulter:He is now attacking CNN for unfair coverage by showing the many empty seats at one of his rallies in S.C.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Trump is a equal opportunith insulter:He is now attacking CNN for unfair coverage by showing the many empty seats at one of his rallies in S.C.

He feels compelled to fight back against all insults. But he may be punching himself out in terms of his manly persona, if his admirers begin to perceive the insecurity beneath the bravado.

[Regnad Kcin]

"Trump...has had a great first act. But [the second] debate suggested that he has no plan for a second act. First acts are famously easy to pull off. 'It has often been remarked that anyone can write a good first act,' [playwright David] Mamet notes. 'When the curtain goes up, we’ve got your attention. So we dramatists don’t have to do anything for a while. Later, either the plot will kick in or the audience will start yawning and eating popcorn.'

The struggle of the second act in a political campaign, as in any drama, is that the problem identified at the beginning—the one that seized our attention—must be translated into the more mundane tasks that propel the protagonist toward his or her goal. Won’t even the most committed Trump supporter start to wonder why this self-proclaimed savior hasn’t prepared himself to answer standard policy questions?

<snip>

Mamet illustrates second-act problems—and their solutions—by pointing to the real-life examples of political actors who actually changed history. The most ambitious and inspirational leaders are also the ones who, after articulating what seemed to be an impossibly lofty goal, soon found themselves mired in the tedious work required to realize it. 'In the middle term the high-minded goal has devolved into what seem to be quotidian, mechanical, and ordinary drudgery,' Mamet writes. Trump seems more ill-prepared to bother with the ordinary drudgery of politics than anyone in the race."

Donald Trump May Not Have a Second Act

[hgc]

The only thing in this election cycle that will get even more over-the-top media coverage than the rise of Donald Trump will be the decline and exit of Donald Trump. But that at least will be a more tasty meal to slop up.

[dudalb]

His Elmer Gantry style Bible Waving routine in Carolina was prime..including the whole "War on Christmas" B.S.

[hgc]

At the "Value Voters" Summit, Trump steps on his own dick when he tries out his insult shtick, targeting Marco Rubio.

Quote:

"You have this clown, Marco Rubio," Trump said, as the crowd erupted in boos. "I’ve been so nice to him."

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...o-clown-214069

Nice that it's accompanied with his usual aside about his own relationship to the target, which is starting to look like a verbal tic.

This is what I'm talking about ... His act is fraying at the edges. Pretty soon they'll be throwing rotten fruit at him.

[dudalb]

The whole Bible bit was so over the top that even a lot of the usually gullible Fundies are not buying it.

[Olowkow]

Is there a link to a video of Trump's whole speech at the Value Voters meeting?
MSNBC had video of him saying that the crowd was not booing him when he called Rubio a clown, they were cheering him. He is definitely rattled.

[dudalb]

And quite a few evangelicals are making remarks about How Trump never talked about being a Christian until he began to ran for President...to quote Bart Simpson, "Way Too Obvous,Dude".

[Doghouse Reilly]

Trump is still going to win the nomination. He's just riding the waves right now. Of course it was never going to be non-stop exciting giant-slaying action.

[Olowkow]

Time for a few laughs. President Trump (@writeintrump) on twitter has been coming up with some good Trump jokes.

https://twitter.com/Writeintrump

I thought I was the only one who was seeing the character of Chauncey Gardner (Being There) in Trump's campaign antics.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/0...becomes-Satire

Quote:

I am not making this up. In Donald Trump the political campaign has become satire

Chuck Todd, Meet the Press, August 16, 2015: "Who do you talk to for military advice right now?"

TRUMP: "Well, I watch the shows. I mean, I really see a lot of great-- you know, when you watch your show and all of the other shows and you have the generals and ... you have certain people that you like ... "

Compare that to Chauncy Gardiner (played by Peter Sellers in the famous 1979 political satire, Being There):

REPORTER #2: "Sorry to persist, sir, but it would be of great interest to me to know what newspapers you do read?"

CHAUNCEY: "I do not read any newspapers. I watch TV."

TV REPORTER: "...Do you mean, Mr. Gardiner, that you find television's coverage of the news superior to that of the newspapers?

CHAUNCEY: "I like to watch TV."

Excellent article by Frank Rich on Trump's campaign style. Nothing new, just very well written.

The Importance of Donald Trump

[varwoche]

Originally Posted by hgc

I don't think he's exactly delusional. I think it's more of a case that the truth value of his utterances is not a thing he recognizes as relevant. His motivation is always self-interest. Yes, he may understand on some level the concepts of truth and lying, but he doesn't really get why they matter in human communication.

Funny and plausible.

Nor do I think it's delusion btw. Just a stream of lies from a compulsive liar.

[sunmaster14]

Originally Posted by hgc

I don't think he's exactly delusional. I think it's more of a case that the truth value of his utterances is not a thing he recognizes as relevant. His motivation is always self-interest. Yes, he may understand on some level the concepts of truth and lying, but he doesn't really get why they matter in human communication.

So, in other words, you think he's a liar.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by sunmaster14

So, in other words, you think he's a liar.

If I wanted to put it that simply, I would have. Yes, he is a liar. But I was describing something more detailed and subtle about his lying. He's a shameless and remorseless liar, which is not the case with all liars. He might not recognize himself as a liar. He might not get that his self-interested statements contrary to the truth are what most of us call lying. He's got defective sociability. The lionization of such a person is a societal defect.

[sunmaster14]

Originally Posted by hgc

If I wanted to put it that simply, I would have. Yes, he is a liar. But I was describing something more detailed and subtle about his lying. He's a shameless and remorseless liar, which is not the case with all liars. He might not recognize himself as a liar. He might not get that his self-interested statements contrary to the truth are what most of us call lying. He's got defective sociability. The lionization of such a person is a societal defect.

Well, my point is that what you're describing is precisely what I would define as a liar. Perhaps you're trying to distinguish Trump's crude lying from, for example, Hillary's more subtle lying, and I would agree that there's a distinction there. But what you've described in general is how I would distinguish a real liar - a congenital or sociopathic liar - from somebody who simply lies from time to time when it is necessary to avoid painful consequences of admitting the truth.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by sunmaster14

Well, my point is that what you're describing is precisely what I would define as a liar. Perhaps you're trying to distinguish Trump's crude lying from, for example, Hillary's more subtle lying, and I would agree that there's a distinction there. But what you've described in general is how I would distinguish a real liar - a congenital or sociopathic liar - from somebody who simply lies from time to time when it is necessary to avoid painful consequences of admitting the truth.

Suit yourself.

[Mike!]

"The candle that burns twice as bright lasts half as long."

[marplots]

Originally Posted by Mike!

"The candle that burns twice as bright lasts half as long."

"The darker the room, the brighter the candle."

[Foolmewunz]

Originally Posted by varwoche

As some will say, including members of this forum, when Trump says these fantastically false things, he's not lying; he believes what he's saying. As if being delusional is better than being a liar.

If the press and public had any sense of humor, they could make this into a 2016 meme. Whomever gets to the mic first in a Trump press conference or speech should open with.... "Have you noticed the number of empty seats tonight? A group of us counted and compared and there are 129 seats still available and no one waiting to get in."

Should this surprise anyone, though? The New Republican Party once had a speaker talking to an empty chair. Maybe Donald's having the same hallucinations.

[Ladewig]

Perhaps I spoke too soon.
The British bookies have started to lengthen Trumps odds enough that he has dropped from second place (just after JEB) to third place (just after Rubio). Still pretty close.

[Norman Alexander]

Originally Posted by hgc

If I wanted to put it that simply, I would have. Yes, he is a liar. But I was describing something more detailed and subtle about his lying. He's a shameless and remorseless liar, which is not the case with all liars. He might not recognize himself as a liar. He might not get that his self-interested statements contrary to the truth are what most of us call lying. He's got defective sociability. The lionization of such a person is a societal defect.

I suspect that Trump simply believes whatever comes out of his own mouth at the time. It is "Trump true", as of right now. That he comes out with something completely at odds with reality, or contradicts himself within days if not minutes, is beside the point. Those utterances are "Trump true" as well. Everything is "Trump true' if he says it is.

It's a case of saying, or attempting to say, what your audience wants to hear at the time. Agree with them to become one of them, and then it is easier to get them to agree with you. Perhaps it's one of his tenets from "The Art of the Deal", I don't know. Certainly seemed to work for him so far with the dim-bulb religious right brigade. But as time goes on and the audience gets wiser, it's starting to look like it really is - inconsistent waffle.

I think Trump may be among the next few candidates to drop out. Peak Trump may actually be Trump Cliff...

[newyorkguy]

I think part of Trump's advantage was that he hadn't been in the news much in recent years. Not the way that he was back in the Marla era or when he was going broke. Then he was constantly in the news, especially in New York, but Trump's problem is he doesn't wear well. He's a bit of a jerk and always has been. Eventually that comes through loud and clear.

I think now we can see the strategy the other GOP candidates have been playing; the best way to counter Trump is to just let him keep talking. Nominated? I'll be surprised if even participates in the Republican Presidential Convention which is still a long eleven months away.

[turingtest]

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander

I suspect that Trump simply believes whatever comes out of his own mouth at the time. It is "Trump true", as of right now. That he comes out with something completely at odds with reality, or contradicts himself within days if not minutes, is beside the point. Those utterances are "Trump true" as well. Everything is "Trump true' if he says it is.

It's a case of saying, or attempting to say, what your audience wants to hear at the time. Agree with them to become one of them, and then it is easier to get them to agree with you. Perhaps it's one of his tenets from "The Art of the Deal", I don't know. Certainly seemed to work for him so far with the dim-bulb religious right brigade. But as time goes on and the audience gets wiser, it's starting to look like it really is - inconsistent waffle.

I think Trump may be among the next few candidates to drop out. Peak Trump may actually be Trump Cliff...

The salient (to me) characteristic in everything Trump says is his use of the word, and meme, "deal"- everything is a deal, foreign policy is making deals with leaders of other countries, healthcare is a deal with hospitals and insurers, etc. This might be a good way of looking at things, I dunno...but it certainly doesn't seem to leave much room for principles (or even "principle" as a concept). And the biggest deal of all is the way he's playing Monty Hall with the American people, selling the sizzle and hiding the steak- " here you go, America, you can have what you see there on the stage, your healthcare, your foreign policy, your tax structure, all just as you see them. OR...you can have what's behind Door #1, my plans for all those things- but you can't see them until you own them. So...what's it gonna be?"

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

I think part of Trump's advantage was that he hadn't been in the news much in recent years. Not the way that he was back in the Marla era or when he was going broke. Then he was constantly in the news, especially in New York, but Trump's problem is he doesn't wear well. He's a bit of a jerk and always has been. Eventually that comes through loud and clear.

I think now we can see the strategy the other GOP candidates have been playing; the best way to counter Trump is to just let him keep talking. Nominated? I'll be surprised if even participates in the Republican Presidential Convention which is still a long eleven months away.

Real question might become if Trump decides on a third party run. (I think his signed statement he will not do that is not worth the paper it is written on.If he decides to run,He will scream I WUZ ROBBED and consider the agreement null and void).
He does not have the chance of snowball in hell of winning, but a very good chance of taking 4 to 5% of the Republican vote, which would cost the GOP the Swing states and the election.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by turingtest

The salient (to me) characteristic in everything Trump says is his use of the word, and meme, "deal"- everything is a deal, foreign policy is making deals with leaders of other countries, healthcare is a deal with hospitals and insurers, etc. This might be a good way of looking at things, I dunno...but it certainly doesn't seem to leave much room for principles (or even "principle" as a concept). And the biggest deal of all is the way he's playing Monty Hall with the American people, selling the sizzle and hiding the steak- " here you go, America, you can have what you see there on the stage, your healthcare, your foreign policy, your tax structure, all just as you see them. OR...you can have what's behind Door #1, my plans for all those things- but you can't see them until you own them. So...what's it gonna be?"

To a degree Trump is right....every diplomatic agreement is a "deal",but it's a totally different kind of deal then the ones Trump is used to.
THe problem with principal is at what point what does sticking to a principle become fantacism and refusal to compromise?

[newyorkguy]

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander

I suspect that Trump simply believes whatever comes out of his own mouth at the time. It is "Trump true", as of right now. That he comes out with something completely at odds with reality, or contradicts himself within days if not minutes, is beside the point. Those utterances are "Trump true" as well. Everything is "Trump true' if he says it is.

New York is full of guys like Donald Trump. They spell "belief" with an 'o' as in o-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y. Like a former boss of mine once said, referring to charges and counter-charges being hurled between warring departments (within the same company): "We believe what we need to believe when we need to believe it. When the situation changes, we believe something else." This was his response after I objected (in private) to a statement he had made about another department. He said they had done x-y-z and it just about destroyed a business project we were involved in. I said to him, "But Boss...ummm, I don't think they really did that." First words out of his mouth were, spoken with a big grin, "That doesn't matter. We believe they did it." Then he winked and explained to me, "We believe what we need to believe yada-yada-yada"

Donald Trump is from the same corporate culture. Even worse actually because he's a New York real estate developer. They are the absolute worst when it comes to ethics or integrity.