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Tags 2020 elections , congressional elections , david perdue , Georgia elections , Jon Ossoff , Kelly Loeffler , Raphael Warnock

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Old 5th January 2021, 01:34 PM   #121
GodMark2
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Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate View Post
I'm convinced that Trump directly chooses the music for these events. I'm not sure he has listened to any new music after 1984. He usually ends with YMCA. It is so odd to see Trump and his supporters singing and dancing to a quintessential gay men's anthem.

But the choice of music after Fortunate Son was equally odd: Elton John, Queen, David Bowie, Village People.

Is...is Donald Trump a disco queen? Does he spend his nights in drag lavished in gold lamé and sequins prancing around a disco ball in the Lincoln bedroom?

Not that there is anything wrong with that.
Nah, it's just all from the oldies albums. You know: the music his voters listened to when they were young. It's all about freedom and living your life on your own terms, which plays well to the patriot crowd. They're experts on only hearing the parts of things that they agree with.

It's his living rooms that are decked out in lame gold... er gold lamé.
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Old 5th January 2021, 03:56 PM   #122
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Kayleigh McEnany tweeted

@kayleighmcenany
Sky high taxes, the Green New Deal, a weakened military, abortion until birth, the obliteration of the 2nd Amendment & religious freedom and more leftist nightmares are the future with a radical liberal Senate.

STOP THEM by voting for
@Perduesenate
&
@KLoeffler
NOWDouble exclamation mark
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Old 5th January 2021, 04:49 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Kayleigh McEnany tweeted

@kayleighmcenany
Sky high taxes, the Green New Deal, a weakened military, abortion until birth, the obliteration of the 2nd Amendment & religious freedom and more leftist nightmares are the future with a radical liberal Senate.

STOP THEM by voting for
@Perduesenate
&
@KLoeffler
NOWDouble exclamation mark
Are they now using just the letter K since Donnie referred to Kelly as "Karen" last night at the rally?

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Old 5th January 2021, 06:36 PM   #124
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Just popped in to check on the status of the Georgia runoff -- here we are at almost 50% reporting in, and the totals so far are looking very good for the Democrats, a 7% lead for both candidates. I have to say I'm feeling some genuine hope for the control of the Senate going to the party that will actually do something, and to get turtleneck off the TV. (I don't usually resort to ad hominems, but I'm so damn tired of that guy.)

Granted, the November Election reports started similarly, but in the other direction, and that swapped in the next several hours. And these are described as 90% early votes, which tend to favor Democrats. Lots of Election Day voting to be reported yet. Hmmm...

(eta)
Here, only a few minutes and percent later, the gap has closed by quite a bit. Sigh...
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Old 5th January 2021, 06:56 PM   #125
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Unfortunately I think the republicans will win both. Hopefully I’m wrong.
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Old 5th January 2021, 06:57 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
Just popped in to check on the status of the Georgia runoff -- here we are at almost 50% reporting in, and the totals so far are looking very good for the Democrats, a 7% lead for both candidates. I have to say I'm feeling some genuine hope for the control of the Senate going to the party that will actually do something, and to get turtleneck off the TV. (I don't usually resort to ad hominems, but I'm so damn tired of that guy.)

Granted, the November Election reports started similarly, but in the other direction, and that swapped in the next several hours. And these are described as 90% early votes, which tend to favor Democrats. Lots of Election Day voting to be reported yet. Hmmm...

(eta)
Here, only a few minutes and percent later, the gap has closed by quite a bit. Sigh...
Fake News! Rigged Election! Stop the Steal!
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:08 PM   #127
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Very close..

Here is a running count:

Votes being counted in Georgia Senate runoffs

Almost a vote by vote meter running.

50/50 across the board as I type..

It's amazing how many more counties are red rather than blue, yet the totals are so close..
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:13 PM   #128
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We have 2/3rds reporting. Perdue took a slight lead. The NYT meters still predict Leaning Democrat in both races. It's a nailbiter.
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:14 PM   #129
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My stomach is churning.
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:22 PM   #130
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Have they started to count mail in ballots?

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:24 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by Faydra View Post
My stomach is churning.
Just open these two NYT pages.

NYT raw numbers updates every couple minutes

NYT running prediction

When it looks like red is ahead (raw numbers), I shift to the other page that shows Blue is still predicted to win because of which votes are reported and which aren't.

From the first link:
Quote:
Nate Cohn 10m ago

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There’s a long way to go and it’s close, but they have done better than they need across all vote methods and in all regions.

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Old 5th January 2021, 07:27 PM   #132
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Atlanta not in yet, right?
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Old 5th January 2021, 07:29 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by Faydra View Post
Atlanta not in yet, right?
We have 76% total reporting with Fulton county reporting 86%.

ETA: Dekalb county (eastern Atlanta) is only at 35%. And Cobb (NW Atlanta/Marietta) is at 49%.
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Old 5th January 2021, 08:06 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Faydra View Post
My stomach is churning.
That's because you're paying attention to it. It doesn't do any good. The results will be the same whether you watch or not. So I'm not.
If the results favor the R's, Trump will take credit. If the results favor the D's, it'll be a rigged election and Mitch will prevent them being seated. Heads they win, tails the USA loses.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:07 PM   #135
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90% in now. I think most of the mail-in votes were counted the earliest, but they say heavy Democratic-leaning Dekalb county (eastern Atlanta) has yet to report much of their totals. The worst thing about this every time is that it's always so damn close. I'm probably not going to check again until tomorrow morning but until then, my heart is sinking.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:15 PM   #136
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It’s very close but if the counting projections mirror the presidential election it’s looking good for Dems. The last 3-5% of the vote in the presidential election heavily favored Dems almost universally except in AZ.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:18 PM   #137
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Watching Brian Tyler Cohen live stream right now and a large dump was just reported from Dekalb county, I believe.

According to BTC, the math is not looking good for the GOP. Remaining votes to come in are from areas that lean heavily Democrat.

NYT is projecting a greater than 95% win chance for both Democrat candidates.

Of course Trump is already on Twitter complaining about massive vote dumps.

Last edited by dmaker; 5th January 2021 at 09:24 PM.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:21 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by Faydra View Post
Atlanta not in yet, right?
NYT has called it, both Democrats WILL win.

So you can relax.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:25 PM   #139
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Man! Numbers coming in and changing fast! It's better than having it drawn out for several days, but still...
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:25 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
NYT has called it, both Democrats WILL win.

So you can relax.
Only question now is whether Ossoff will win by more than 0.5% to prevent a recount.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:25 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That's because you're paying attention to it. It doesn't do any good. The results will be the same whether you watch or not. So I'm not.
True. I had to stop watching and begin checking now and then.

Quote:
If the results favor the R's, Trump will take credit. If the results favor the D's, it'll be a rigged election and Mitch will prevent them being seated. Heads they win, tails the USA loses.
It was leaning red at first but mostly blue votes are the only ones left to count and there are lots of them.

Trump will see the parallels and start off again that the ballots were stuffed at night.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:27 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate View Post
Only question now is whether Ossoff will win by more than 0.5% to prevent a recount.
I think we'll be past the auto recount but the candidates can still request one. Not sure why they would bother unless it's within 100 votes. Just my opinion.

Warnock has passed the the 0.5 mark. Ossoff has a bit further to go.

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Old 5th January 2021, 09:31 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
It's amazing how many more counties are red rather than blue, yet the totals are so close..
Why is this amazing. Counties aren't based on population, and the majority of them are rural and conservative. Same if you look at a map of the US countywide.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:32 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
NYT has called it, both Democrats WILL win.

So you can relax.
So there is hope for American democracy after all.

Right now, as of 11:31pm:

Warnock is beating Loeffler by over 30k votes. So it looks like she's definitely toast.

Perdue is beating Ossoff by around 3k votes... so a little tighter there. But, the counties that seem to still have the most total votes left to count (DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett) are all breaking strongly for the Democrats. Should be easy for Ossoff to catch up.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:34 PM   #145
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So, who would be senate majority leader now?
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:35 PM   #146
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I’m butt wiggling like my dog... please let this be true.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:38 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
So there is hope for American democracy after all.

Right now, as of 11:31pm:

Warnock is beating Loeffler by over 30k votes. So it looks like she's definitely toast.

Perdue is beating Ossoff by around 3k votes... so a little tighter there. But, the counties that seem to still have the most total votes left to count (DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett) are all breaking strongly for the Democrats. Should be easy for Ossoff to catch up.
From the NYT comment column:
Quote:
Trip Gabriel 5m ago

Fewer than 500 votes now separate Perdue and Ossoff. Feels like a horse race rounding into the home stretch.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:38 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by dmaker View Post
So, who would be senate majority leader now?
Well, the Democratic Minority Leader is Schumer. Not sure if there is any reason why he wouldn't step into the position of Majority leader.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:40 PM   #149
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More comments:
Quote:
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn Just now

Ossoff and Warnock both have a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates. The remaining vote is overwhelmingly Democratic. ...
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:43 PM   #150
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Quote:
The race still seems close but Democrats are overwhelming favorites to prevail, including Jon Ossoff, who still trails David Perdue by a narrow margin. The remaining vote is from heavily Democratic counties.
I choose to believe,


In the heavily Democratic DeKalb County only 92% of the vote is in. It's very large.

Coffee County has 96% in and it favors Perdue but it's small.

Henry County has 97% in and favors Ossoff and it is much larger than Coffee County.

The rest have 98% of their counts in.

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Old 5th January 2021, 09:47 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by dmaker View Post
So, who would be senate majority leader now?
The most uncharismatic man on Earth.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:49 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
The most uncharismatic man on Earth.
Yeah, I am really not a Schumer fan but I’m much less of a MacConnell fan.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:51 PM   #153
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Looks like a done deal. Dems take both senate seats. Looks reasonably probable that the margins will be greater than .5% which will avoid an automatic recount.

Edit: SG noted this earlier.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:55 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Looks like a done deal. Dems take both senate seats. Looks reasonably probable that the margins will be greater than .5% which will avoid an automatic recount.

Edit: SG noted this earlier.
And given it's midnight in GA, they may all go to bed and count the rest tomorrow.
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:00 PM   #155
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NYT:
Quote:
We think about 93,000 votes remain. If that's right, Loeffler would need to win about 69 percent of those votes. We think she's on track to win between <5 and 42 percent. (Our best guess is 23 right now)
Last model run: 12:06 AM ET
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:14 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
The most uncharismatic man on Earth.
Why would Democrats give the job to Ted Cruz?
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:16 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
The most uncharismatic man on Earth.
Mitch currently has the job.

Oh, you mean a Democrat! Right! Well, gee. There's probably many to choose from who are nowhere near as sparkling a personality as Mitch. Take your pick.
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:38 PM   #158
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It looks like DeKalb has not reported any absentee ballots. Maybe they wait until they are all processed before reporting. There will probably be a big jump for the Dems when those results come in.
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:41 PM   #159
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Looks like Warnock has it.

Because of recent history, I'm just not willing to accept yet that "Ossoff has it" while Ossoff is still behind in the count, regardless of where the remaining votes are coming from. Once he's ahead, I'll consider him ahead.
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:55 PM   #160
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One last update because it seems they may have taken a break in counting until tomorrow morning (a few totals have been trickling in).

Quote:
We think about 90,000 votes remain. If that's right, Ossoff would need to win about 51 percent of those votes. We think he's on track to win between 57 and >95 percent. (Our best guess is 77 right now)
Quote:
We think about 90,000 votes remain. If that's right, Loeffler would need to win about 70 percent of those votes. We think she's on track to win between <5 and 43 percent. (Our best guess is 22 right now)

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