Peter Zeihan

Horhang · 16th June 2022, 09:01 PM

I have not seen any discussion of Peter Zeihan or his views/prognostications, so I thought I would open a thread on it/them.
In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct. He makes some other predictions about large scale trends in world affairs.
I am wondering if anyone else is familiar with his analysis and has any thoughts on his overarching thesis?

Puppycow · 16th June 2022, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by Horhang

In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct.

Hadn't Russia already invaded Ukraine by 2014? That's when they annexed Crimea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ian_Federation

And the current invasion began earlier this year. So either the prediction was wrong or he predicted something that had already happened.

Ziggurat · 16th June 2022, 09:10 PM

Originally Posted by Horhang

I have not seen any discussion of Peter Zeihan or his views/prognostications, so I thought I would open a thread on it/them.
In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct. He makes some other predictions about large scale trends in world affairs.
I am wondering if anyone else is familiar with his analysis and has any thoughts on his overarching thesis?

I’ve been listening to some of his stuff about China. He’s very pessimistic about their future, based largely on demographics. Very interesting stuff, not sure how accurate his forecasts will be, but worth paying attention to.

Horhang · 16th June 2022, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Hadn't Russia already invaded Ukraine by 2014? That's when they annexed Crimea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ian_Federation

And the current invasion began earlier this year. So either the prediction was wrong or he predicted something that had already happened.

His prediction was not Crimea. His prediction was that Russia would need to control all of Ukraine, also several other countries or parts thereof. It is interesting though that he predicted that the invasion of Ukraine would have to happen no latter than when it did. I do not have access to a copy of his book to check the date he put in print but it seems to if not match, be pretty close for predictions 6-8 years out.

Horhang · 16th June 2022, 09:29 PM

I am not so interested in Zeihan’s prediction of the Ukraine war, I am more interested in if anyone has thoughts about his larger thesis.
In my own words, roughly:
World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War.
The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world.
There is more to it, I would hope obviously, but that is the most shorthand version I can do.

Puppycow · 16th June 2022, 09:36 PM

OK. For the sake of argument I'll grant that it was "close", even if he said "no later than 2020."

I've never even heard of this guy, do you have anything else?

Does he make lots of predictions? Let's examine them all, not just the one you want to cherry-pick.

I'm just doing a little googling now. This was written in 2018, and I'm not endorsing it, but it was one of the top results for "peter zeihan predictions":

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/1...-premises.html

Quote:

Zeihan Predictions

Zeihan postulates that because the US economy is not needing much world trade that the US will abandon protecting the world’s sea routes and world trade will collapse.

The US will not need to import oil by 2020. This is asserted by Zeihan and Nextbigfuture agrees that the US will not need to import oil by 2020. This will drive the percentage the US economy that is world trade down from 7% now to 1 or 2% when Canada and Mexico and Central America are excluded.

However, Nextbigfuture notes that the US will start exporting large amounts of oil, coal and liquid natural gas. Nextbigfuture does not believe that the fracking will stay at breakeven between production and demand.

Zeihan predicts that America will withdraw from its global cop role.

Zeihan predicts that without America as cop that world will go into fighting and chaos and world trade will collapse. This will be followed by the collapse of countries.

Zeihan predicts that Germany’s economy will collapse to one fourth its current level without trade in a world of Chaos.

Zeihan predicts China will break apart without world trade or will be united but very poor.

Zeihan has an implicit prediction that neither China or any other power would step into any power void left by the withdrawal of the USA.

Zeihan also predicts the rise of Japan, Turkey and Argentina in a world of Chaos.

Other than Russia invading Ukraine, 2 years after he predicted it would happen "no later than", what has he gotten right? What even looks like it is headed in the direction he predicted?

Puppycow · 16th June 2022, 09:43 PM

Originally Posted by Horhang

In my own words, roughly:
World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War.
The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world.

Too simplistic, and incorrect.

Also the Cold War appears to be rekindling.

I just don't buy this view. At all.

dann · 16th June 2022, 10:29 PM

Originally Posted by Horhang

I am not so interested in Zeihan’s prediction of the Ukraine war, I am more interested in if anyone has thoughts about his larger thesis.
In my own words, roughly:
World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War.
The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world.
There is more to it, I would hope obviously, but that is the most shorthand version I can do.

No, not really.

Babbylonian · 16th June 2022, 10:48 PM

Predicting that a dictator with imperialist ambitions would invade a neighboring country which he has already invaded once might be the easiest prediction ever. Given that the other predictions are based on made-up nonsense, I think this thread is in the wrong subforum.

dann · 17th June 2022, 05:02 AM

I'll admit that I was a little surprised when the second Bush invaded Iraq for no apparent reason and using a very bad subterfuge.

angrysoba · 17th June 2022, 06:07 AM

The first time I was aware of hearing Zeihan's name was in this thread by NWO Sentryman who was posting a lot of long posts on how the Global Order was about to crumble and states were going to retreat into populism.

There may be some truth to this, but then again, it may be that Zeihan was looking at current trends and extrapolating to some nightmare scenario of global chaos.

I always think with ideas like this that there are too many moving parts and clearly unforeseeable events such as Covid. Would Covid prevent, delay or exacerbate the trends Zeihan sees happening? Who knows?

I'm a little skeptical of any of these ways of seeing the world.

Stellafane · 17th June 2022, 09:32 AM

Heh...if he's right, the only thing standing between total global collapse and chaos is the good 'ol U.S. of A.

You are all welcome.

16th June 2022, 09:01 PM	#1
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123	Peter Zeihan I have not seen any discussion of Peter Zeihan or his views/prognostications, so I thought I would open a thread on it/them. In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct. He makes some other predictions about large scale trends in world affairs. I am wondering if anyone else is familiar with his analysis and has any thoughts on his overarching thesis?
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123

16th June 2022, 09:07 PM	#2
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 27,084	Originally Posted by Horhang In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct. Hadn't Russia already invaded Ukraine by 2014? That's when they annexed Crimea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ian_Federation And the current invasion began earlier this year. So either the prediction was wrong or he predicted something that had already happened.
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

16th June 2022, 09:10 PM	#3
Ziggurat Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 51,665	Originally Posted by Horhang I have not seen any discussion of Peter Zeihan or his views/prognostications, so I thought I would open a thread on it/them. In his book in 2014 he stated that Russia would invade Ukraine by no later than 2020 if my memory is correct. He makes some other predictions about large scale trends in world affairs. I am wondering if anyone else is familiar with his analysis and has any thoughts on his overarching thesis? I’ve been listening to some of his stuff about China. He’s very pessimistic about their future, based largely on demographics. Very interesting stuff, not sure how accurate his forecasts will be, but worth paying attention to.
	__________________ "As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law

16th June 2022, 09:19 PM	#4
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123	Originally Posted by Puppycow Hadn't Russia already invaded Ukraine by 2014? That's when they annexed Crimea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ian_Federation And the current invasion began earlier this year. So either the prediction was wrong or he predicted something that had already happened. His prediction was not Crimea. His prediction was that Russia would need to control all of Ukraine, also several other countries or parts thereof. It is interesting though that he predicted that the invasion of Ukraine would have to happen no latter than when it did. I do not have access to a copy of his book to check the date he put in print but it seems to if not match, be pretty close for predictions 6-8 years out.
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123

16th June 2022, 09:29 PM	#5
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123	Clarification of intent I am not so interested in Zeihan’s prediction of the Ukraine war, I am more interested in if anyone has thoughts about his larger thesis. In my own words, roughly: World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War. The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world. There is more to it, I would hope obviously, but that is the most shorthand version I can do.
Horhang Scholar Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 123

16th June 2022, 09:36 PM	#6
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 27,084	OK. For the sake of argument I'll grant that it was "close", even if he said "no later than 2020." I've never even heard of this guy, do you have anything else? Does he make lots of predictions? Let's examine them all, not just the one you want to cherry-pick. I'm just doing a little googling now. This was written in 2018, and I'm not endorsing it, but it was one of the top results for "peter zeihan predictions": https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/1...-premises.html Quote: Zeihan Predictions Zeihan postulates that because the US economy is not needing much world trade that the US will abandon protecting the world’s sea routes and world trade will collapse. The US will not need to import oil by 2020. This is asserted by Zeihan and Nextbigfuture agrees that the US will not need to import oil by 2020. This will drive the percentage the US economy that is world trade down from 7% now to 1 or 2% when Canada and Mexico and Central America are excluded. However, Nextbigfuture notes that the US will start exporting large amounts of oil, coal and liquid natural gas. Nextbigfuture does not believe that the fracking will stay at breakeven between production and demand. Zeihan predicts that America will withdraw from its global cop role. Zeihan predicts that without America as cop that world will go into fighting and chaos and world trade will collapse. This will be followed by the collapse of countries. Zeihan predicts that Germany’s economy will collapse to one fourth its current level without trade in a world of Chaos. Zeihan predicts China will break apart without world trade or will be united but very poor. Zeihan has an implicit prediction that neither China or any other power would step into any power void left by the withdrawal of the USA. Zeihan also predicts the rise of Japan, Turkey and Argentina in a world of Chaos. Other than Russia invading Ukraine, 2 years after he predicted it would happen "no later than", what has he gotten right? What even looks like it is headed in the direction he predicted?
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

16th June 2022, 09:43 PM	#7
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 27,084	Originally Posted by Horhang In my own words, roughly: World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War. The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world. Too simplistic, and incorrect. Also the Cold War appears to be rekindling. I just don't buy this view. At all.
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

16th June 2022, 10:29 PM	#8
dann Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 16,572	Originally Posted by Horhang I am not so interested in Zeihan’s prediction of the Ukraine war, I am more interested in if anyone has thoughts about his larger thesis. In my own words, roughly: World free trade exists because the United States guarantees free access to the seas and markets. The United States guaranteed such to bribe nations to be on our side for the Cold War. The Cold War is over and there is no reason for the United States to preserve free trade for the rest of the world. There is more to it, I would hope obviously, but that is the most shorthand version I can do. No, not really.
	__________________ /dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

16th June 2022, 10:48 PM	#9
Babbylonian Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 13,902	Predicting that a dictator with imperialist ambitions would invade a neighboring country which he has already invaded once might be the easiest prediction ever. Given that the other predictions are based on made-up nonsense, I think this thread is in the wrong subforum.

17th June 2022, 05:02 AM	#10
dann Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 16,572	I'll admit that I was a little surprised when the second Bush invaded Iraq for no apparent reason and using a very bad subterfuge.
	__________________ /dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

17th June 2022, 06:07 AM	#11
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,920	The first time I was aware of hearing Zeihan's name was in this thread by NWO Sentryman who was posting a lot of long posts on how the Global Order was about to crumble and states were going to retreat into populism. There may be some truth to this, but then again, it may be that Zeihan was looking at current trends and extrapolating to some nightmare scenario of global chaos. I always think with ideas like this that there are too many moving parts and clearly unforeseeable events such as Covid. Would Covid prevent, delay or exacerbate the trends Zeihan sees happening? Who knows? I'm a little skeptical of any of these ways of seeing the world.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

17th June 2022, 09:32 AM	#12
Stellafane Village Idiot. Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 7,935	Heh...if he's right, the only thing standing between total global collapse and chaos is the good 'ol U.S. of A. You are all welcome.
	__________________ "Stellafane! My old partner in crime!" - Kelly J