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Old 29th January 2020, 11:48 AM   #401
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
We've had some pretty clear days over the last few weeks, but the smoke's back. There's a new fire in Namadgi National Park, just south of Canberra. And yes, we're going into heatwave conditions. Again. 35 today, 36 tomorrow, 39 on Thursday, 41 on Friday and Saturday, with rain forecast (50% chance so I'll believe it when I see it) on Sunday.

Don't know how it works where you are, but when our local station (Well, one of them, anyhow.) says there's a 50% chance of rain they mean within their viewing area, which is roughly a quarter if not a third of the state.

Their weather radar future mapping is very accurate, though, and it's usually possible to get a pretty good idea of where and sometimes even how much rain a given area is going to get. They do their best to break out different parts of their viewing area, but there's only so far they can drill down in the span of a weather segment.
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Old 29th January 2020, 05:21 PM   #402
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
The scale probably is, but there is no doubt that the Black Saturday fires were far more intense and destructive. Whole towns were wiped out in minutes.

Is that what I'm talking about? What year was Black Saturday?
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Old 29th January 2020, 06:18 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Don't know how it works where you are, but when our local station (Well, one of them, anyhow.) says there's a 50% chance of rain they mean within their viewing area, which is roughly a quarter if not a third of the state.

Their weather radar future mapping is very accurate, though, and it's usually possible to get a pretty good idea of where and sometimes even how much rain a given area is going to get. They do their best to break out different parts of their viewing area, but there's only so far they can drill down in the span of a weather segment.
Forecasts tend to get less accurate the further out they are. The BOM is now forecasting a 70% chance of showers on Sunday, which is trending up, so there's that. If it's up to 90% by Saturday then I'll believe that we'll actually get a significant amount of rain.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Is that what I'm talking about? What year was Black Saturday?
2009.
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Old 29th January 2020, 06:31 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Forecasts tend to get less accurate the further out they are. The BOM is now forecasting a 70% chance of showers on Sunday, which is trending up, so there's that. If it's up to 90% by Saturday then I'll believe that we'll actually get a significant amount of rain.

That's not really what I was referring to. If I tune in to the weather segment on our local news tomorrow morning and they say there's a 50% chance of rain that day, I won't assume that they mean there's a 50% chance where I am. They mean there's a 50% chance in their viewing area, and if I want to get more detail then I have to dig deeper.

At any rate, here's hoping you get as much rain as you need when you need it ... but not too much.
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Old 29th January 2020, 07:51 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
That's not really what I was referring to. If I tune in to the weather segment on our local news tomorrow morning and they say there's a 50% chance of rain that day, I won't assume that they mean there's a 50% chance where I am. They mean there's a 50% chance in their viewing area, and if I want to get more detail then I have to dig deeper.

At any rate, here's hoping you get as much rain as you need when you need it ... but not too much.
Yes, fair enough. There is a northside/southside gradient in our weather, but more significant is the fact that Canberra is in something of a rain shadow because of the Brindabella Mountains to the west. I've been watching rain radars and seeing large amounts of rain coming in from the west just vanish when they hit those mountains. So yes, there's rain, and yes, some of it is falling on fire-prone areas, but no, none of it hits me.
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Old 29th January 2020, 08:45 PM   #406
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Air quality has reached 203 - Hazardous.
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Old 29th January 2020, 08:47 PM   #407
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This is appropriate again.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
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Old 30th January 2020, 01:44 AM   #408
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Tomorrow, our forecast is 90% chance of rain, 10 to 20 mm.

With warnings for potential flash floods.

(And 36 degrees C)

I'm so glad I don't live in the tropics...
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Old 30th January 2020, 01:51 AM   #409
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Wow, if you haven't seen this, here's some terrifying video of the speed of the fires: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-au...res-can-spread
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Old 30th January 2020, 04:33 PM   #410
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ABC Fact Check:

Have more than a billion animals perished nationwide this bushfire season?

For those who can't be bothered clicking: that's a conservative estimate.
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Old 30th January 2020, 05:33 PM   #411
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
ABC Fact Check:

Have more than a billion animals perished nationwide this bushfire season?

For those who can't be bothered clicking: that's a conservative estimate.
And that does not even include insects.
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Old 30th January 2020, 05:35 PM   #412
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Pretty nasty stuff alright.

If possum populations need a boost, we have millions to spare.
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Old 30th January 2020, 05:37 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
And that does not even include insects.
At least the Mount Kaputar slugs made it.
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Old 30th January 2020, 07:14 PM   #414
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ACT enters state of emergency as Namadgi's Orroral Valley bushfire is upgraded to Watch and Act

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A state of emergency has been declared for the ACT, with fire conditions expected to deteriorate over the next two days.

The announcement came as the Orroral Valley fire, which is burning out of control around the Mount Tennant area in the Namadgi National Park, was upgraded to a watch and act level.

ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA) Commissioner Georgeina Whelan has been appointed as the Emergency Controller.

"The fire activity is increasing, it has been unpredictable, it remains challenging, it is difficult to access," she said.

"This fire could create its own weather system."

"The predictions are that tomorrow will be our worst day."

Commissioner Whelan said the "checklist" of "the 10 things that contribute to having a really, really, really dangerous fire … are lining up."
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Old 30th January 2020, 10:08 PM   #415
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This fire has escalated badly, and it's going to get worse tomorrow.

The good news is that there is rain on the way, followed by much milder weather. All we need to do is get through Saturday.

I'm unlikely to be personally in danger, but the property where I used to live is threatened. I've still got some stuff in one of my once-famous sheds out there.
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Old 30th January 2020, 10:52 PM   #416
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
ABC Fact Check:

Have more than a billion animals perished nationwide this bushfire season?

For those who can't be bothered clicking: that's a conservative estimate.
Hopefully a good portion were rabbits.
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Old 1st February 2020, 02:24 PM   #417
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Originally Posted by bobdroege7 View Post
Hopefully a good portion were rabbits.

From what I've heard, when the Nuclear Apocalypse comes to Australia, rabbits will join cockroaches and gonorrhea as the only surviving life forms.
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Old 1st February 2020, 06:56 PM   #418
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
2009.

Not the occasion I was thinking about then, that was in the early to mid 1990s.
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Old 1st February 2020, 09:04 PM   #419
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
From what I've heard, when the Nuclear Apocalypse comes to Australia, rabbits will join cockroaches and gonorrhea as the only surviving life forms.
Cane Toads.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 09:24 PM   #420
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Our firies are heroes. The Orroral Valley and Clear Range fires have been downgraded to Advice level over the weekend. My property was spared. Didn't get much in the way of actual rain, but we have cooler weather now. Unfortunately, there's a wind change that's about to blow more smoke over.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 10:13 PM   #421
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I just looked, there is a LOT of smoke. Just put the aircon on full to cool the house before it hits.
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Old 11th February 2020, 10:00 PM   #422
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For those who have been following, the fires are now mostly out. Torrential rain has seen catastrophic floods instead. It's all very biblical.

The forests will recover. For weeks now people have been posting pictures of regenerating plants. It won't be the same as it was, but the forests will recover.

On the off-chance anyone still needs them, I did receive the box of face masks from Skeptic Ginger. Let me know if you want one.
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Old 11th February 2020, 10:55 PM   #423
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Hey, remember this?

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
The Port Macquarie fire is finally out.
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Old 12th February 2020, 12:26 AM   #424
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
For those who have been following, the fires are now mostly out. Torrential rain has seen catastrophic floods instead. It's all very biblical.

The forests will recover. For weeks now people have been posting pictures of regenerating plants. It won't be the same as it was, but the forests will recover.

On the off-chance anyone still needs them, I did receive the box of face masks from Skeptic Ginger. Let me know if you want one.
This map says several fires are still burning, though they are 'under control' https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-info.../fires-near-me
In case you do not want to look at the map, they are all fires south of Canberra. Fires to the north of Canberra are all out.

Edit. My big worry is the lack of vegetation holding the soil, so the rain washing it away.
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Old 12th February 2020, 06:00 AM   #425
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Is that it for this fire season or more likely a temporary lull?
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Old 12th February 2020, 03:20 PM   #426
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
Is that it for this fire season or more likely a temporary lull?
Depends on the weather, while the rains have been very heavy (worst since 1990) parts of Australia are still very dry, and if the rain stops and the heat returns, then so does the risk. The fire season usually ends about late March/early April.
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Old 12th February 2020, 06:21 PM   #427
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Depends on the weather, while the rains have been very heavy (worst since 1990) parts of Australia are still very dry, and if the rain stops and the heat returns, then so does the risk. The fire season usually ends about late March/early April.

You're doing better than California at least one way, then.

They've decided they don't really have a fire "season" anymore. It's pretty much a year-round hazard now.
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Old 12th February 2020, 06:39 PM   #428
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There are still fires burning in East Gippsland Victoria, and Melbourne had severe smoke haze only a few days ago. Not much rain on the radar either.
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Old 12th February 2020, 06:48 PM   #429
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That's because they haven't been raking the forests.
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Old 12th February 2020, 07:54 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There are still fires burning in East Gippsland Victoria, and Melbourne had severe smoke haze only a few days ago. Not much rain on the radar either.
We've had something that I haven't seen in many years - a forecast where all of the listed upcoming 7 days have a rain icon. And that's been on my weather app for several days now.
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Old 12th February 2020, 08:32 PM   #431
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That's because they haven't been raking the forests.
No doubt. I just don’t get how hard it is for people to understand the “we have to destroy the forest to save it” philosophy of the Nationals......
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Old 12th February 2020, 08:48 PM   #432
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Meanwhile...

Sydney dam overflows as levels surge after days of torrential rain in water catchments

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After months of drought, the Nepean Dam has spilled over after more than 700 millimetres of rain drenched parts of the region across the past week.

The heritage-listed dam, south-west of Sydney, is at 100 per cent capacity and gushing into the Nepean River, WaterNSW said.

Last week Sydney's metropolitan dam systems were at 33 per cent capacity, but after 244 mm of rain fell into the Warragamba catchment, the system is now at 75 per cent capacity.

Despite the heavy rainfall across NSW, Sydney Water said level 2 water restrictions remain in place for Greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains and the Illawarra.

"While we welcome the rain, it's way too soon to see if there's going to be a start of drought recovery or a welcome temporary relief from the drought conditions," said Sydney Water's Peter Hadfield.

...

The torrential rain soaking much of the state has significantly dampened over 100 bushfires, with only 24 bushfires still alight.

The NSW Rural Fire Service said over 30 bushfires have been extinguished in the last week.
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Old 12th February 2020, 08:49 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
Is that it for this fire season or more likely a temporary lull?
I personally don't think it will return to the catastrophic conditions we've seen, but predicting the future is hard.

Here's another prediction: next year's season won't be as bad.
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:55 AM   #434
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I personally don't think it will return to the catastrophic conditions we've seen, but predicting the future is hard.

Here's another prediction: next year's season won't be as bad.
Well I hope you're right.
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Old 13th February 2020, 02:44 AM   #435
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Australia - always finding new ways to try and kill you.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:43 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Well I hope you're right.
It won't be as bad because there won't be as much left to burn next year.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:44 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
You're doing better than California at least one way, then.

They've decided they don't really have a fire "season" anymore. It's pretty much a year-round hazard now.
Double check the flag.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:39 PM   #438
arthwollipot
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Just saw a meme on Facebook:

Quote:
Australia has five seasons. Spring, summer, autumn, winter, and whatthe****. Whatthe**** doesn't have a specific time of year, but occurs randomly inside other seasons.

We are currently in whatthe****.
Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi just hit Lord Howe Island, by the way. It'll get to the mainland before long.
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Last edited by arthwollipot; 13th February 2020 at 09:37 PM. Reason: Missed a crucial bit of the meme
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:04 PM   #439
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Australia - always finding new ways to try and kill you.


In many places, this rain could be a curse in disguise...
Where I live, which has been in drought for three years, it has been just enough to get the green growing again in a big way, but it wasn't enough to actually fill dams or tanks, and with the sun now back, you can literally see grass and trees sprouting new vegetation day by day...
But should that be the last of it, all that green will dry and become an even bigger loading than we had previously...
We still got a couple of months (if not longer) of 'bushfire season' left...
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:23 PM   #440
rjh01
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Double check the flag.
He did. Australia is a state of NZ. If not, how can we make it so?
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