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Tags Iran incidents , Qasem Soleimani , Trump controversies , US-Iran relations

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Old 4th January 2020, 05:02 PM   #401
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Meaning what? He was a member of the Iraqi Parliament and a commander of Shia militia against ISIS.
Meaning he was Iran's top officer in Iraq, who's mission was to enforce Iranian influence there, and who was almost certainly involved in current operations against US installations, not to mention those in past decades.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:09 PM   #402
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
The first sentence? Absolutely, as long as you temper it to reality.

Plenty of American military officers put food on their family's table by planning acts that result in civilian casualities. If some of these were snuffed out in, say, the UK, along with some UK officials as collateral damage, how'd that be any different?

Tribalism, and might-is-right, are the only two operating principles here. Everything else is obfuscation.
If Iran attacked in UK, killing US official together with UK official, who both would be responsible for attacks on Iranian civilians, that would be the similar.

And since when is might not right ? Always was. Always will be. Morals and ethics are luxury of the mighty ones. Sure, control your power. But don't give it up.

And we don't know to what extent was this act immoral. Thing is we don't know much about it. Discussion is mostly in pro-Trump, anti-Trump axis. That's not very helpful. We need information first. Until then, only question should be raised, no judgements.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:11 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Being satisfied on those two points doesn’t mean that the strike was necessary. As you were pointing to the norms of international law earlier regarding the justification of military strikes, how do you factor in the obvious breach of Iraqi sovereignty and the killing of Iraqi military and militia?
"Necessary" is only a fraction of the equation. The real question is, was it effective? Almost certainly not. Iraqi Shiites are going to be even more hostile than before. Ordinary Iranians are going to be more hostile than before. Both governments are going to be more hostile than before. Support for the US from other countries will be greatly reduced. And anything he was planning is extremely unlikely to have died with him.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:20 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
"Necessary" is only a fraction of the equation. The real question is, was it effective? Almost certainly not. Iraqi Shiites are going to be even more hostile than before. Ordinary Iranians are going to be more hostile than before. Both governments are going to be more hostile than before. Support for the US from other countries will be greatly reduced. And anything he was planning is extremely unlikely to have died with him.
There for sure is some deterrent. If you do this, US will kill you. Imagine being put into office of guy, who died yesterday, and you have the same orders on the table. If nothing else, Iran officials will think twice about going to Iraq.
There were questions here, what goal was US trying to achieve. It for sure was not destruction or Iran regime. I think it's simply status quo, which Iran is currently trying to shift.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:21 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Meaning he was Iran's top officer in Iraq, who's mission was to enforce Iranian influence there, and who was almost certainly involved in current operations against US installations, not to mention those in past decades.
And yet, he is Iraqi.

Iran is not the problem here. The problem is that Iraq and Iran have overtly merged a large part of their armed forces. Iran has not covertly placed officers in charge of Iraqi militia - they've been very open about it and have had the blessing of the Iraqi government. Iraqis (like Muhandis) who lived in Iran during the Baathist era have returned and make no pretense of not being very strongly pro-Iran nor do they deny having contacts and getting direction from the Iranian government. He commanded an Iraqi militia under Iranian officers, with the full blessing of the Iraqi government.

It's just another muddled situation. We cant' fight Iran in Iraq, because Iran and Iraq are half merged at this point. The only way to fight Iran in Iraq would be to start another internal conflict.

Last edited by crescent; 4th January 2020 at 05:33 PM.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:23 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
I am amazed that some people here are trying to defend this outrage. The spuriousness of any and every argument presented here is clearly demonstrated by imagining the roles reversed.

If we are to condone this as an act of war, or as retaliation for actions seen as against national interests, or any other such two-faced crap, well, the same can be said for US actions in that region. What if Iran had bombed a clutch of US military officers dead, netting a few dead officials of allied countries in the process?
I don't understand the question.

Does it have to be US officers? Can there be military consequences for Iran if they bomb some other cluster of soldiers/officials/civilians?

Is that okay?
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:25 PM   #407
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
"Necessary" is only a fraction of the equation. The real question is, was it effective? Almost certainly not. Iraqi Shiites are going to be even more hostile than before. Ordinary Iranians are going to be more hostile than before. Both governments are going to be more hostile than before. Support for the US from other countries will be greatly reduced. And anything he was planning is extremely unlikely to have died with him.
Yes, “necessity” is only one element, but it is put forward as, well, a necessary condition of international law by one poster here. I disagree that the necessity is demonstrated.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:29 PM   #408
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
There for sure is some deterrent. If you do this, US will kill you. Imagine being put into office of guy, who died yesterday, and you have the same orders on the table. If nothing else, Iran officials will think twice about going to Iraq.
There were questions here, what goal was US trying to achieve. It for sure was not destruction or Iran regime. I think it's simply status quo, which Iran is currently trying to shift.
No. From the PM down, the Shia are the most powerful and populous group in Iraq and are strongly pro-Iran.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:31 PM   #409
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Being satisfied on those two points doesn’t mean that the strike was necessary.
Of course not. It does mean that it was justified, both in terms of military value and risk of collateral damage.

Quote:
As you were pointing to the norms of international law earlier regarding the justification of military strikes, how do you factor in the obvious breach of Iraqi sovereignty and the killing of Iraqi military and militia?
I understand that the principles I appealed to are norms of international law, but that's not why I appealed to them. I honestly don't give a **** about "norms of international law" as such. I happen to agree with these particular principles. If international law didn't, I'd say international law was wrong.

Remember that this conversation started with the suggestion that if we allow this attack we also have to allow a nuclear attack on Tehran. So I took a moment to explain in more detail how I view justifiable attacks, versus how the other poster imagined they must be viewed.

I'm not convinced that this particular attack was diplomatically prudent, but I'm satisfied that it was militarily justified and strategically valuable on that basis.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:31 PM   #410
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Meaning he was Iran's top officer in Iraq, who's mission was to enforce Iranian influence there, and who was almost certainly involved in current operations against US installations, not to mention those in past decades.
I would like to see if there were any serious attempts to put Iraq under economic and diplomatic pressure before the US decided to assassinate him. Ordinarily, assassinating members of another country’s parliament is not a good idea if you want to maintain good relations.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:32 PM   #411
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, but how does that explain how we are to view this?
How do any of these hypotheticals explain how we are to view this?
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:36 PM   #412
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So now Trump is using 'Fast, Hard' movie-title-style wording in his Tweets. He's gonna target 52 Iranian bases 'hard and fast' if it dares retaliate:

Quote:
President Trump has warned the US is "targeting" 52 Iranian sites and will strike "very fast and very hard" if Tehran hits Americans or US assets.

His comments followed the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, in a drone strike.

Iran has vowed to avenge his killing.

Mr Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran "is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets" in response to the general's death.

He said the US has identified 52 Iranian sites, some "at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD" if Tehran strikes the US.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50996602

I am not hoping that Boris is being held hostage somewhere as no-one has heard a dicky bird from him - not even a twitter - as that would be unkind.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:41 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Ordinary Iranians are going to be more hostile than before.
I don't think this is likely. Ordinary Iranians know what's up. The ones that support their government's hostility towards the US have already made up their minds to do so. Their hostility level isn't going to change much.

Likewise those Iranians who don't support their government's hostility. Their hearts are probably not going to bleed much at all for one of the government's top agents of that hostility.

Quote:
Both governments are going to be more hostile than before.
Be more hostile, or just be more vocal about it for a time?

Quote:
Support for the US from other countries will be greatly reduced.
Can you put a number on "greatly"? I bet the reduction will be "marginally" if anything.

Quote:
And anything he was planning is extremely unlikely to have died with him.
On the other hand, losing a top planner and the network of trusted contacts he built up, can be a significant setback. You see this all the time in other industries. How many movies have been screwed up because losing the director isn't simply solved by hiring another director to replace him. Etc. Why should we expect it to be any different for military projects? Do you seriously think Iran has half a dozen of these guys hanging around, ready to operate at this level across the Middle East?
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:46 PM   #414
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No, you were completely correct.
In that case my apologies for deleting it, I hadn't followed and read through the links you'd posted (thread's moving fast) so I didn't feel like I could confidently take a stand.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:58 PM   #415
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So now Trump is using 'Fast, Hard' movie-title-style wording in his Tweets. He's gonna target 52 Iranian bases 'hard and fast' if it dares retaliate:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50996602

I am not hoping that Boris is being held hostage somewhere as no-one has heard a dicky bird from him - not even a twitter - as that would be unkind.
Boris doesn't give a ****. As long as he gets his Brexit and sone kind of trade deal with the USA he is happy to stay in the Caribbean.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:59 PM   #416
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
And yet, he is Iraqi.

Iran is not the problem here. The problem is that Iraq and Iran have overtly merged a large part of their armed forces. Iran has not covertly placed officers in charge of Iraqi militia - they've been very open about it and have had the blessing of the Iraqi government. Iraqis (like Muhandis) who lived in Iran during the Baathist era have returned and make no pretense of not being very strongly pro-Iran nor do they deny having contacts and getting direction from the Iranian government. He commanded an Iraqi militia under Iranian officers, with the full blessing of the Iraqi government.

It's just another muddled situation. We cant' fight Iran in Iraq, because Iran and Iraq are half merged at this point. The only way to fight Iran in Iraq would be to start another internal conflict.
Muhandis is Iraqi by birth, but Iranian by mission. And I believe Iran is part of the problem.

Aside from that, I have no disagreement here.
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Old 4th January 2020, 05:59 PM   #417
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I guess Trump made a New Year's resolution to get rid of the toxic people in his life.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:02 PM   #418
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I would like to see if there were any serious attempts to put Iraq under economic and diplomatic pressure before the US decided to assassinate him. Ordinarily, assassinating members of another country’s parliament is not a good idea if you want to maintain good relations.
So would I.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:09 PM   #419
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So now Trump is using 'Fast, Hard' movie-title-style wording in his Tweets. He's gonna target 52 Iranian bases 'hard and fast' if it dares retaliate:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50996602

I am not hoping that Boris is being held hostage somewhere as no-one has heard a dicky bird from him - not even a twitter - as that would be unkind.
Trump's hard and fast days are behind him. But Israel will probably be proxy-targeted in retaliation.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:13 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Trump's hard and fast days are behind him. But Israel will probably be proxy-targeted in retaliation.
"Leave our top terrorism planner alone, or we're totally gonna plan some terrorism!"

Like the guy just sits in his office all day, twiddling his thumbs. But if you kill him, his secretary is gonna go through his desk and dust off an old terrorism plan and put it into action for a change.

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Old 4th January 2020, 06:17 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Trump's hard and fast days are behind him. But Israel will probably be proxy-targeted in retaliation.
WTF does idiot boy mean by cultural targets? Since when are cultural sites valid military targets? If we have to do this fine, but we're not animals.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:23 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Of course, sources, upon which such attack was based, are secret.
Which means Trump should start yapping about it soon enough.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:27 PM   #423
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Quote:
Q: “Do you have an exit strategy for Iran if war does break out?”

Trump: “I don’t need exit strategies.”
Video here

No matter what you think about Suleimani and the air strike, we have an escalating conflict looming, and one of the least competent people on the planet is in charge of it.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:34 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Video here

No matter what you think about Suleimani and the air strike, we have an escalating conflict looming, and one of the least competent people on the planet is in charge of it.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:40 PM   #425
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Video here

No matter what you think about Suleimani and the air strike, we have an escalating conflict looming, and one of the least competent people on the planet is in charge of it.
Um..yup.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:43 PM   #426
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Video here

No matter what you think about Suleimani and the air strike, we have an escalating conflict looming, and one of the least competent people on the planet is in charge of it.
What? No “let’s just go in and take the oil”?
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:56 PM   #427
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Trump's hard and fast days are behind him. But Israel will probably be proxy-targeted in retaliation.
Dup.
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Old 4th January 2020, 06:57 PM   #428
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
I am amazed that some people here are trying to defend this outrage. The spuriousness of any and every argument presented here is clearly demonstrated by imagining the roles reversed.

If we are to condone this as an act of war, or as retaliation for actions seen as against national interests, or any other such two-faced crap, well, the same can be said for US actions in that region. What if Iran had bombed a clutch of US military officers dead, netting a few dead officials of allied countries in the process?
It would be an act of war.

What's your point?

I certainly don't "condone it as an act of war", but I do recognize it as an act of war. Here in the 21st century, we have these sort of low level wars going on, and actually have had them at least since the beginning of the nuclear age. This act makes it a slightly higher level war, at least temporarily.

I don't feel bad that a general died instead of a militiaman.


It seems very dangerous, and I'm not sure we ought to have people in Iraq at all. However, given that we do, and given that this man was participating in a war where our people were among the targets, the fact that he, himself, became a target doesn't seem horrible to me. Dangerous? Yes, but not horrible. At least, no more horrible than any act of war.


And, the above assumes that he was in fact directing attacks on targets in Iraq, including Americans. For all I know, that could be a lie. However, no one seems to be disputing that fact. Even critics of killing him seem to think he was, in fact, directing troops to do things against the US and/or its allies.
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Old 4th January 2020, 07:04 PM   #429
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It seems even Trump administration recognizes this will lead to escalation in the region. It's hard for me to navigate US web sites though, much less to recognize who is pro-Trump, who anti-Trump. This seems neutral, will many references, but not direct reference to someone from administration stating it officially.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/03/p...ine/index.html

Another interesting point is the attack was planned weeks ahead. So it cannot be retaliation to the most recent protests and attack on US embassy in Iraq, and it can't be reaction to 'imminent' thread, how Trump said.

I have the feeling this is too serious for Trump. He can't handle it. He's actually indecisive, he ok'ed the strike, but he has no idea what's going to happen. He wants to sell it politically, but since he's making false excuses, he isn't really convinced it was best thing to do. But it also seems it's not just reaction to tweet.
So is Trump evil dictator flexing his muscle ? Or genius general, saving the world peace ? As usual .. something in between.

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Old 4th January 2020, 07:06 PM   #430
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Deliberate targeting of cultural sites is war crime. I guess he is jealous of his republican predecessor and his war crimes.
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Old 4th January 2020, 07:17 PM   #431
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On the other hand, maybe he means "cultural centers". Like religious centers that also provide terrorist training and indoctrination. Which would be reasonable, in my opinion. Retaliating against locations of international cultural interest, not so much. (Though there is always the caveat that using such locations for military purposes is itself a war crime, and militarily justifies attacking the location.)
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Old 4th January 2020, 07:18 PM   #432
I Am The Scum
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Video here

No matter what you think about Suleimani and the air strike, we have an escalating conflict looming, and one of the least competent people on the planet is in charge of it.
CORRECTION: This video is from half a year ago. The original tweet was posted recently and didn't disclose that fact.

Let's hope that these conversations actually occurred before the strike happened.
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Old 4th January 2020, 07:40 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I think the other question deserves an answer: would such an attack have been acceptable at Heathrow?
No, not when we could get him someplace else.
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Old 4th January 2020, 07:53 PM   #434
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Originally Posted by BrooklynBaby View Post
No, not when we could get him someplace else.
You already enlisted?
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Old 4th January 2020, 08:02 PM   #435
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I would like to see if there were any serious attempts to put Iraq under economic and diplomatic pressure before the US decided to assassinate him. Ordinarily, assassinating members of another country’s parliament is not a good idea if you want to maintain good relations.
How can we maintain good relations with them when we didn't have good relations with them?
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Old 4th January 2020, 08:35 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
How can we maintain good relations with them when we didn't have good relations with them?
We have a complex web of relations with Iraq both good and bad. It is essential to maintain and extend the good relations and minimize the bad. Unless you feel that it is a great idea to turn another middle eastern country yet more decisively against us, as well as further alienating and inspiring distrust in still other countries in the region and beyond.

It is worth noting that the USA’s ineptness after deposing Saddam contributed to many of the bad relations and this is yet one more example.
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Old 4th January 2020, 08:59 PM   #437
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Can anyone point out an example where taking out a “top terrorist” has eliminated or even significantly reduced subsequent terrorism?
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Old 4th January 2020, 09:00 PM   #438
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
How can we maintain good relations with them when we didn't have good relations with them?
With Iraq? The US does at least have an embassy there.
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Old 4th January 2020, 09:02 PM   #439
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I am also curious when we will begin taking out the relevant government officials of Pakistan. And Saudi Arabia, one of Trump’s favorite supporters of proxy terrorism.
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Old 4th January 2020, 09:03 PM   #440
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I am also curious when we will begin taking out the relevant government officials of Pakistan. And Saudi Arabia, one of Trump’s favorite supporters of proxy terrorism.
Be careful what you wish for.
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