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Old 10th December 2006, 07:30 AM   #241
personable
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If you can prove your dinosaur friend is not imaginary, I'm sure you'd have a shot at the challenge yourself.
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Old 10th December 2006, 10:44 PM   #242
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This is very interesting. I can't wait to see how she does on the retest-if there is one.
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Old 11th December 2006, 03:38 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by shell View Post
This is very interesting. I can't wait to see how she does on the retest-if there is one.
From Chateaubriand's post #156 in this thread:

"This morning, Landin wrote this on a Swedish woo woo forum:

Right after the test, I got a mail from Randi, stating that it would be redone. On his forum, Jeff Wagg has written that it is under review and that he would come back in this matter. Therefore, I wrote a new letter, and got this reply from the humble Randi:

YES.

YES.

YES.

WE WILL DO THE TEST AGAIN.

I HAVE ALREADY INFORMED YOU OF THIS, AND WE ARE PREPARED TO DO IT AGAIN.

IS THAT CLEAR?

James Randi.

When I initialy applied, I stated that I wanted regular sittings but that couldn't be done, according to SOH. After that, I tried wedding rings but that couldn't be arranged either, according to SOH. It's a bit of a shame that what I can do is not testable. I understand that it's difficult to arrange ordinary sittings, too many people would have to be involved.
What do you think? Is it hard to get hold of wedding rings of the same size from dead people? I prefer dead people since I work better with that than psychometry on the living. Suggestions are appreciated. Does it have to be 20? Are 10 too few? If you have 10, can't the test be done in two rounds?

Carina"

Remain patient, shell, as these negotiations eat up a lot of time.
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Old 11th December 2006, 03:26 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by GzuzKryzt View Post
From Chateaubriand's post #156 in this thread:

"This morning, Landin wrote this on a Swedish woo woo forum:

...

I prefer dead people since I work better with that than psychometry on the living.
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Old 11th December 2006, 03:31 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Her claim, her wording.



And later: Her test, her ___?
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Old 11th December 2006, 03:55 PM   #246
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Oh I know it was her saying it, the was just because I can't reconcile her statement with any type of psychometry I've ever heard claimed, true or otherwise.
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Old 11th December 2006, 04:33 PM   #247
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Like the wording in the protocol, I wasn't very clear. I was referring to Carina going through with the test-oops.
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Old 12th December 2006, 03:59 PM   #248
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Well, now I guess the test has already been designed.. but since she's talking about wedding rings, couldn't these be used? Of course guessing whether it's a man or a woman would be out, but something else could be used. For example, whether the person had any children or not. That would of course mean finding a number of wedding-rings from childless people. And ms Landin would have to be carefully instructed only to ask the spirits about children that were actually born..
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Old 13th December 2006, 02:56 PM   #249
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Interesting, but I don't think she's claiming she can do that, she told us she could 'see' the owner of an item she holds in her hand and that this works more vividly if the owner is recently dead and held a strong emotional bond to that item.

TBH, I think she just wants wedding rings on the offchance SOH will be unable to find twenty identical rings, and be reduced to including some that are clearly female or clearly male.

When that doesn't happen, she goes off and tells the woos that SOH said 'it wasn't possible' without explaining why ie she would get clues from the style of the ring, just to make SOH/ jref look demanding and uncompromising. Anyone else sure she's at it and knows she is?

Last edited by personable; 13th December 2006 at 03:00 PM.
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Old 13th December 2006, 03:47 PM   #250
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Wedding rings that have no indication of sex, including size? That sounds tricky, indeed. Well, I guess there might be some very plain ones around, but it still sounds hard.

I don't think she has such plans btw, she seems to be honestly confused.
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Old 13th December 2006, 06:42 PM   #251
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I think the JREF has rejected the idea of tests based on whether or not a person has children before. There are a number of people out there (pretty much all male ) who do not know accurately the number of children they do have.

Psychics have been known to tell men that their wife cheated on them and that they have no real children.
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Old 14th December 2006, 10:12 PM   #252
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I think diaries would be MUCH easier to get than wedding rings. Diaries get donated to libraries and museums, wedding rings get buried or passed down to children. They're far more treasured than a diary, for some reason.
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Old 17th January 2007, 07:21 PM   #253
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What is the status on the retest for this one if I may so inquire?

I have first noted a few things for the case of it not following the established protocol as outlined in the English protocol document as linked. Then presented the data in a different order than has been commonly done here.

Issues with age of diaries:

- 14 of 20 diaries were prior to the 1900 cutoff date she intended.
- 2 of 20 were not within the 19th century.
- 6 of 20 were not within the late 19th (1875 as cutoff date) century.

This would be partially her fault for not insisting that there be a specific cut off date and the elimination of the phrase 'If Possible'. After the fact she has indicated that she intended 1900 to be the earliest diary. If so, then this means only six of twenty diaries were what she intended.

Issues as to whether the diaries were actually diaries:

- 2 out of 20 were not what are technically considered diaries in the way she intended.

Quote:
1 book was a collection of recipes
1 book was a documentation regarding the mating of animals
In my opinion the question of whether these actually constituted diaries is more significant than the question of age as she stated beforehand that the objects need to be of significant emotional value to the deceased. This should have been clarified more specifically in advance by her since the definition of diary can either be inclusive or exclusive of the two items in question.

Using the data results linked from here I have compiled an alternate listing of the results instead being ordered from when they were presented in numerical order as opposed to in order of age. I was interested in seeing any streaks and where the various diaries were presented in position.

Quote:
1 1963 +
2 1794 -
3 1860 -
4 1828 +
5 1935 +
6 1961 +
7 1896 +
8 1787 +
9 1943 -
10 1867 +
11 1825 +
12 1800 +
13 1889 -
14 1953 -
15 1879 -
16 1881 +
17 1932 -
18 1867 +
19 1895 +
20 1859 -
I am interested in seeing the retake of this challenge. I am also interested in knowing which numerical values were the two diaries that she disputed as being actual diaries in the way she intended. From reading the material available to me I could not find this out.

Last edited by paradigm; 17th January 2007 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 1st February 2007, 10:27 AM   #254
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*Bump* since it has been over 2 weeks and no reply to the request for an update.
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Old 14th February 2007, 03:43 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by mrfreeze View Post
*Bump* since it has been over 2 weeks and no reply to the request for an update.
Thanks. I found a forum she hangs out at, but it is in Swedish and using a translator (very time consuming) I was not able to see much. I hope my original post was not taken to be hostile. I am merely curious about this and how it is handled.
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Old 6th March 2007, 03:06 PM   #256
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bump again
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Old 12th March 2007, 01:23 AM   #257
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Yeah, you and me both Cynical Skeptic! I really wish they'd hurry up and re-test this lady, and get it over with! Couldn't they just grab 20 post-1900 journals out of the (apparently) pretty big supply they had, and do a fast re-test? So few of the applicants actually have the stones to go through with the test (rather than just entertain their delusions by endless debate about protocols and assorted digressions), and generally the testing methods are very sharp.

The sloppiness with which this test was handled was a disappointment that gives ammo to all of the ghost-talking, pocket-picking con artists out there. Now this Swedish nutcase can just say "I took the challenge, and they cheated to keep me from winning my $1,000,000." If they don't re-test her soon she'll just back out and have colorable claim that she couldn't trust the test!

Hell, at this point, she'll probably back out anyway. It's SO TOUGH to get these guys to pony up and take a real test (even with a small fortune for the grabbing) that the odds of doing it twice would be... well... paranormal!
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Old 12th March 2007, 01:30 AM   #258
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Re-test Swiss-miss With Diaries... Soon!

Originally Posted by Silly Green Monkey View Post
I think diaries would be MUCH easier to get than wedding rings. Diaries get donated to libraries and museums, wedding rings get buried or passed down to children. They're far more treasured than a diary, for some reason.
Right on about diaries vs. wedding rings (sorry for my lateness to this discussion but I just read her application thread a couple of days ago). With a wedding ring, she could just say "oh, well the person who wore it ORIGINALLY was a man, but then it got passed down to his daughter, who put it on a chain and gave it to her daughter to wear on her charm bracelet... etc. forever and ever."

Granted, she could do the same with a diary (or anything else), but CLEARLY a diary is important to the person writing in it, or they wouldn't be writing. On the other hand, people wear wedding rings for years without giving a crap about them. Next excuse: "Oh, well, this ring BELONGED to a man, but he didn't love his wife, and used to take the ring off whenever he left the house... She BOUGHT it for him, and truly treasured their (supposed) love, so her 'vibrations' have tainted the ring with woman-ness..."
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Old 12th March 2007, 10:33 PM   #259
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She did BETTER on the pre-1900 books!

Quote:
1 1963 +
2 1794 -
3 1860 -
4 1828 +
5 1935 +
6 1961 +
7 1896 +
8 1787 +
9 1943 -
10 1867 +
11 1825 +
12 1800 +
13 1889 -
14 1953 -
15 1879 -
16 1881 +
17 1932 -
18 1867 +
19 1895 +
20 1859 -
Hey, and looking at paradigm's post above with the actual dates/guesses in it, one notices:

Of the six books that were written after 1900, she got three right (1963, 1935, 1961), and three wrong (1943, 1953, 1932).

Now, I'm no statistic-tition (I can't even spell it), but I'm pretty sure those odds are 50/50...

Of the 14 books written before 1900, she got 9 CORRECT (1828, 1896, 1787, 1867, 1825, 1800, 1881, 1867, 1895) and missed 5 (1794, 1860, 1889, 1879, and 1859).

That's about 64% correct! It still wouldn't have won the challenge (she had to hit 80%), but it was way better than she did with the post-1900 books!

Now, we don't know which 2 books were the "non diaries" (more typical applicant bs, since she just said she could "read" anything that was "important" to the owner), but I wonder if she got those right or wrong?
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Old 13th March 2007, 06:12 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by Klaymore View Post
Of the six books that were written after 1900, she got three right (1963, 1935, 1961), and three wrong (1943, 1953, 1932).

Now, I'm no statistic-tition (I can't even spell it), but I'm pretty sure those odds are 50/50...
Given six binary choices, the probability of getting 0 right by sheer luck is about 1.5%. The probability of getting N right is:

0 1.6%
1 9.4%
2 23.4%
3 31.2%
4 23.4%
5 9.4%
6 1.6%

Notice: although "getting 4 out of 6 right" naively suggests that you did "better than chance", notice that some 35% of random-guessers will do as well or better.

Quote:
Of the 14 books written before 1900, she got 9 CORRECT (1828, 1896, 1787, 1867, 1825, 1800, 1881, 1867, 1895) and missed 5 (1794, 1860, 1889, 1879, and 1859).

That's about 64% correct! It still wouldn't have won the challenge (she had to hit 80%), but it was way better than she did with the post-1900 books!
Same calculation: given 14 binary choices, and dumb luck on the guesses, the odds of getting N right are:

0 0.00610352%
1 0.0854492
2 0.55542
3 2.22168
4 6.10962
5 12.2192
6 18.3289
7 20.9473
8 18.3289
9 12.2192
10 6.10962
11 2.22168
12 0.55542
13 0.0854492
14 0.00610352

Note, again: nine right out of fourteen is NOT AT ALL IMPROBABLE. (It becomes even less improbable when, as you've just done, you're allowed to look at the final data and pick "interesting" ranges. Why not observe "hey, she got 100% right between 1894 and 1897?" There is something called a "trials penalty" in statistics to account for this bias.) That's why the test protocol demanded as many diaries, and as many correct hits, as it did.
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Old 13th March 2007, 06:36 PM   #261
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Thanks ben, I begin to understand. So, if one is making a 50/50 guess about 20 books, the odds of all 20 of those guesses add up to 100%, and the chance of missing all of them is just as low as the chance of getting all 20 correct.

And about 85% of guessers would end up between 5 and 9, with a result of 5 being no more "surprising" than a result of 9.
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Last edited by Klaymore; 13th March 2007 at 06:39 PM. Reason: clarified
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Old 13th March 2007, 07:16 PM   #262
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One more question, ben...

Originally Posted by ben m View Post
Note, again: nine right out of fourteen is NOT AT ALL IMPROBABLE. (It becomes even less improbable when, as you've just done, you're allowed to look at the final data and pick "interesting" ranges. Why not observe "hey, she got 100% right between 1894 and 1897?" There is something called a "trials penalty" in statistics to account for this bias.) That's why the test protocol demanded as many diaries, and as many correct hits, as it did.
Seems you really know your stats, so I wonder if you've heard of the "sumo scandal" that hit a few years ago when the book "Freakanomics" came out.

I started a thread about it (Is Sumo Wrestling Still Fixed?) at sports...

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...88#post2423188

Sounds like you could answer my question pretty easily!
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Old 13th March 2007, 08:54 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by Klaymore View Post
Hey, and looking at paradigm's post above with the actual dates/guesses in it, one notices:

Of the six books that were written after 1900, she got three right (1963, 1935, 1961), and three wrong (1943, 1953, 1932).

Now, I'm no statistic-tition (I can't even spell it), but I'm pretty sure those odds are 50/50...

Of the 14 books written before 1900, she got 9 CORRECT (1828, 1896, 1787, 1867, 1825, 1800, 1881, 1867, 1895) and missed 5 (1794, 1860, 1889, 1879, and 1859).

That's about 64% correct! It still wouldn't have won the challenge (she had to hit 80%), but it was way better than she did with the post-1900 books!

Now, we don't know which 2 books were the "non diaries" (more typical applicant bs, since she just said she could "read" anything that was "important" to the owner), but I wonder if she got those right or wrong?
I think that the challenge was simply flawed so much so that it is hard to read much into it other than that. She could argue that the presence of the old diaries and false diaries threw off her confidence and mood so much so that that it altered her performance and this would be a valid possibility. Supporting this may be the realization that she had 9 out of the first 12 correct which is a 75% success rate. However as ben m points out, this is pretty much just cherry picking the data. A binary conclusion is ideal. I again restate that I think a retesting is warranted.
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Old 4th May 2007, 04:56 AM   #264
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What's happening with the re-test of Carina Landin?

Anyone, anyone? Jeff? Bueller?
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Old 23rd June 2007, 07:20 PM   #265
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This is a test of the power of threadomancy.

Will there be a retest of Carina's necromancy?

Bumpity bump.
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Old 23rd June 2007, 11:07 PM   #266
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I wrote Carina Landin back in May, and she said she sent a proposal to Sven-Ove Hansson (SOH - the coordinator of the first test) back in November of last year, but hasn't heard back from him.

Then I wrote SOH and asked him what was happening in the test, but I haven't heard back from him.

When I wrote Jeff Wagg, also in May, he said there was a problem getting diaries in that date-range.

Yesterday, I wrote it all up in a mail to Randi and asked him what was happening. Now we wait ...
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Old 24th June 2007, 12:08 AM   #267
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Originally Posted by chran View Post
I wrote Carina Landin back in May, and she said she sent a proposal to Sven-Ove Hansson (SOH - the coordinator of the first test) back in November of last year, but hasn't heard back from him.

Then I wrote SOH and asked him what was happening in the test, but I haven't heard back from him.

When I wrote Jeff Wagg, also in May, he said there was a problem getting diaries in that date-range.

Yesterday, I wrote it all up in a mail to Randi and asked him what was happening. Now we wait ...
Thanks for the update, chran. And for your follow-up.
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Old 24th June 2007, 05:57 AM   #268
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Excellent, chran. Thanks.
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Old 8th July 2007, 11:17 AM   #269
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Just heard back from Jeff - he has asked for an update from Sweden, but haven't heard anything yet (I don't know how long it has been).

He will keep after them.
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Old 8th July 2007, 06:55 PM   #270
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IIRC, the problem ATM is finding diaries (not cookbooks) within the requested time frame that are conducive to double-blind testing.
That and a well written protocol.

Thanks for the follow-up, BTW!
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Last edited by colin; 8th July 2007 at 06:57 PM. Reason: Forgot about the cookbook thing.
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Old 28th July 2007, 02:55 PM   #271
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Blimey. Could you at least tell us how many acceptable diaries you located by now?
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Old 12th August 2007, 09:59 PM   #272
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Update (well, not really): Jeff tells me that Alison (RemieV, our fearless Challenge Master) is looking into it.
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Old 5th September 2007, 10:49 AM   #273
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My understanding is the problem with a re-test might be the availability of diaries that fit the bill (mainly--that had nothing on the outside to indicate what sex the owner was--which understandably is a rare thing to have).

What about re-running the tests using the same diaries except for the ones that were too old? I think they were basically identical in appearance, right? Even if they were distinctive, although she knows her overall score, she was never told which ones were right and which ones were wrong, right? (Sorry--couldn't resist the wording.)

If there were only a few un-used ones that fit the bill, perhaps they can be used in addition to the already used ones that weren't too old.

If this isn't possible, then I'd go right back to the accepted protocol and point out that the wording regarding the age-limit said "if possible". If it wasn't possible to find appropriate diaries that fit in the age-limit, then the protocol was followed and her failure stands. After all, it's a legal document, so it should be read that way. (Even so, I'd still like to see a re-test just so there's no figurative asterisk.)

At that point, her only loophole is that it could have been possible then, but impossible now. Then. . . I guess it's back to the drawing board.
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Old 5th September 2007, 12:28 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by JoeTheJuggler View Post
My understanding is the problem with a re-test might be the availability of diaries that fit the bill (mainly--that had nothing on the outside to indicate what sex the owner was--which understandably is a rare thing to have).

What about re-running the tests using the same diaries except for the ones that were too old? I think they were basically identical in appearance, right? Even if they were distinctive, although she knows her overall score, she was never told which ones were right and which ones were wrong, right? (Sorry--couldn't resist the wording.)

If there were only a few un-used ones that fit the bill, perhaps they can be used in addition to the already used ones that weren't too old.

If this isn't possible, then I'd go right back to the accepted protocol and point out that the wording regarding the age-limit said "if possible". If it wasn't possible to find appropriate diaries that fit in the age-limit, then the protocol was followed and her failure stands. After all, it's a legal document, so it should be read that way. (Even so, I'd still like to see a re-test just so there's no figurative asterisk.)

At that point, her only loophole is that it could have been possible then, but impossible now. Then. . . I guess it's back to the drawing board.
This test was before my time, so I am not positive, but I believe that the diaries were covered. Even if there was anything on the outside indicating the gender of the writer, Ms. Landin would not have been able to see it. I also understand that she was not permitted to touch the diaries in any way.
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Old 5th September 2007, 04:52 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by RemieV View Post
This test was before my time, so I am not positive, but I believe that the diaries were covered. Even if there was anything on the outside indicating the gender of the writer, Ms. Landin would not have been able to see it. I also understand that she was not permitted to touch the diaries in any way.
There's a link to the protocol in post #14 of this thread.

The diaries were chosen to have little or no writing on the covers. If there was writing, it would be concealed. The diaries were tied up with a string (so they couldn't be opened). In the test, Landin was allowed to handle them directly, but in such a way that they should be hidden from her view.

Again, I think there's no reason why at the ones that aren't too old can't be reused. The only question is if the library has enough others that aren't too old that were left out of the first test while older ones were used.

If there is not, then we turn to the wording of the protocol, "Furthermore (in accordance with Landin’s wish) diaries older than the late 19th century are avoided as far ass [sic] possible." If they avoided the older ones as far as possible, the test is done, and the failure stands.

If there were some less old ones available, then re-run it avoiding the older ones as much as possible. (In other words, you don't actually have to come up with a total of 15 for each sex that aren't among the older ones--you just have to avoid the older ones as much as possible.)
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Old 6th September 2007, 02:35 PM   #276
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I hope she is retested. It was bad protocol to use so many items that she specifically said she didn't want used because it affects her ability. Not that I believe she will do any better next time, but this way she has no legitimate excuses.

Also assuming you believe in reincarnation, this would give an explanation for why recently dead is easier to communicate with or whatever it is she does. It may be harder for her to connect with the person if they are alive again. Or in the case of the diaries that are about 200 years old, they may have held multiple lives as either a man or woman since they died.

Again, I'm not saying this is the case, just a possibility for why its easier for her when they are recent.
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Old 7th September 2007, 08:57 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I hope she is retested. It was bad protocol to use so many items that she specifically said she didn't want used because it affects her ability.
I don't know if she ever said that. The protocol (in English translation) said, "Furthermore (in accordance with Landin’s wish) diaries older than the late 19th century are avoided as far ass [sic] possible."

I would think that if the age affected her ability, she would have made it a hard requirement that the diaries be less than a certain age.

Is there any update on what's going on? Is there any reason the diaries that aren't too old can't be re-used?

Even if she would've been able somehow to mark the diaries she already handled, so what? She was never told which of her guesses were right and which wrong. Even if she could recognize each diary and recall what her first guesses were, I don't see any way that information could be used to cheat.
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Old 7th September 2007, 09:15 AM   #278
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Two problems. Firstly:

Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I hope she is retested. It was bad protocol to use so many items that she specifically said she didn't want used because it affects her ability. Not that I believe she will do any better next time, but this way she has no legitimate excuses.
While most of us, including Randi, agree it would be nice to test her again using only newer diaries, she did not actually specify that only diaries older than a certain age should be used. The protocol actually said:
Quote:
"Furthermore (in accordance with Landin’s wish) diaries older than the late 19th century are avoided as far ass{sic} possible."
If she knew this was such a big problem, it is her own fault for agreeing to the protocol. If she can't work with diaries older than, say, 1875, she has to specify this. "Late 19th century" and "as far as possible" just don't make it clear what she wants or why she wants it. It may be considered poor work on the part of the testers as well, but that doesn't really change anything. As far as we can tell, the protocol was followed to the letter. She failed.

Quote:
Again, I'm not saying this is the case, just a possibility for why its easier for her when they are recent.
Which brings us to the second problem.
Originally Posted by Chateaubriand View Post
The experiment leader has published an account of Landin's full result. Here are the ages of the 20 diaries and Landin's guesses (R=right, W=wrong):

1787 - R
1794 - W
1800 - R
1825 - R
1828 - R
1831 - R
1879 - W
1859 - W
1860 - W
1867 - R
1881 - R
1889 - W
1896 - R
1895 - R
1932 - W
1935 - R
1943 - W
1953 - W
1963 - R
1961 - R
It isn't easier for her when they are recent. While people may allow her a retest out of sportsmanship, the fact is that she was exactly as bad with new diaries as with old ones. 6/10 correct for both the 10 oldest and the 10 newest, with the most correct answers actually clustered at the oldest. In fact, if "late 19th century" is taken to mean after 1850 rather than 1875, she actually got 50% (7/14) from the diaries she thinks are fine, but 83% (5/6) out of the ones she claims are too old and spoiled the test. Her excuse for failing isn't just a regular poor excuse, it is actually exactly the opposite of what the results show.
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Old 7th September 2007, 03:00 PM   #279
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I'll play devil's advocate:
Originally Posted by Cuddles View Post
It isn't easier for her when they are recent. While people may allow her a retest out of sportsmanship, the fact is that she was exactly as bad with new diaries as with old ones.
The question isn't "sportsmanship" but whether the protocol was followed. I agree with your assessment that it was her fault for agreeing to the protocol if she meant she didn't want anything before 1875 used at all. The question to be answered is whether or not the protocol was followed. Were diaries older than the "late 19th century" "avoided as much as possible"?

If the answer is "no" then you can't make an argument against a retest based on the results. If the protocol wasn't followed, she gets a retest. If it was, then the results stand, and she failed.

I know it seems silly that what matters is whether there were any diaries that were available but not older than the late 19th century that didn't get used, but awarding even this step of a process involving $1 million really is a legal issue.

So, does anyone know whether diaries otherwise fit for the test, but not older than the late 19th century, were available but not used?

Is the hang-up because of the fuzziness of "late 19th century"? Or maybe because the unused diaries in question had more writing or other identifying marks on the outside (another fairly subjective determination)?

Does anyone know if the sentence in question is really a faithful translation of the original Swedish (notwithstanding the "ass" for "as")? Perhaps it was more (or less) clear?
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Old 11th September 2007, 02:57 PM   #280
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Thank you very much for your responses.

I agree with you that she is partly at fault. She should have been more specific concerning this issue, especially if it affects her ability to pass the test. I think both parties are partially to blame. She should have been more specific and made it clear if this was going to be a problem, and the testers probably could have tried harder to get more recent diaries.

I also agree that based on the results of this test it would appear that it doesn't really matter whether older diaries were used. I think it still needs to be taken into consideration regardless, and that she should be retested simply to hold the JREF and the million dollar challenge up to the highest standards.
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