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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 26th October 2020, 12:05 AM   #2441
Firestone
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Dave Wasserman's (The Cook Political Report) take on the state of the race:

Quote:
A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear:

1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16
2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16
3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls

If you're looking for a horse race narrative right now, you're not going to find it here. There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently. Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough.

Btw, virtually none of this assessment has anything to do with early turnout data, which tells us next to nothing about the vote preferences of the final electorate.

It's based on a body of polling data that's fundamentally different from 2016's polls.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...45652162572288
(bolding mine)

And in case someone wants to "yeah, they said the same thing in 2016" that, no, he didn't.

Clipboard01.jpg
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...67570999713792
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Old 26th October 2020, 03:55 AM   #2442
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Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!
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Old 26th October 2020, 03:59 AM   #2443
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!
Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy
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Old 26th October 2020, 04:20 AM   #2444
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy
My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.
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Old 26th October 2020, 04:33 AM   #2445
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Trump Tweets

We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election. COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!

Three BIG Rallies today. Heading to Pennsylvania. I have plenty to say about the dishonesty of the Media and Sleepy Joe. A terrible coverup is happening in our Country!!!

We are winning big on the voting numbers. Get out and Vote. Bigger than 2016!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 26th October 2020 at 04:36 AM.
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Old 26th October 2020, 04:43 AM   #2446
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Expect anything different from a CHristina Fundy who does not like science anyway because ti conflicts with his Book Of Fairy Tales?
Quibble - his desired interpretation of his Book Of Fairy Tales, which, statistically speaking, likely diverges from the things that the Book Of Fairy Tales actually says, frequently and significantly.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Still trying to think what the hell Meadows was thinking when he made that statement.
He was admitting the truth with it, evidentially.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy
Evidence? I'm not seeing much in favor of the highlighted, at this point.
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Old 26th October 2020, 04:47 AM   #2447
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Evidence? I'm not seeing much in favor of the highlighted, at this point.


It was in the post I was quoting:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!
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Old 26th October 2020, 04:55 AM   #2448
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!
Do poll watchers actually count votes? I think not.
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Old 26th October 2020, 05:04 AM   #2449
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy
The satellite election offices are merely helping people acquire and fill out PA mail-in ballots. There is no counting and not voting machines present. By PA state law there is no more need for poll watchers than there is at your kitchen table when you fill out a mail-in ballot there. If you don’t work there and are not voting you have no business being there. Trump just wants his goon squad to harass people in lines waiting to get in.
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Old 26th October 2020, 05:15 AM   #2450
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post


It was in the post I was quoting:
Trump saying something doesn't mean that he believes it. He's made that quite clear over the years - especially when he thinks that he has something to gain by lying/pushing particular lines of propaganda.
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Old 26th October 2020, 05:45 AM   #2451
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Trump Tweets

Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

New York, California, Illinois. People are FLEEING, Taxes and Crime are going through the roof. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn it around, and FAST!
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Old 26th October 2020, 05:51 AM   #2452
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

New York, California, Illinois. People are FLEEING, Taxes and Crime are going through the roof. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn it around, and FAST!
"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!
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Old 26th October 2020, 06:38 AM   #2453
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!
It worked for Boris Johnson in the UK in the last election.

"Unhappy with the effects of Austerity and how badly botched Brexit has been ? Vote for me and I'll fix it all - not least because my colleagues were responsible for all of it"

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Old 26th October 2020, 06:51 AM   #2454
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!
Truly ironic. But right out of the Republican playbook, no?

"government is the problem!- Elect me and I will prove it!" - says every Republican, ever.
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Old 26th October 2020, 06:58 AM   #2455
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.
Hey I watch Baretta, that is still on YouTube! I am voting for Biden however and Bernie wants me to send money to Ilhan
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Old 26th October 2020, 06:59 AM   #2456
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Do poll watchers actually count votes? I think not.
I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?
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Old 26th October 2020, 06:59 AM   #2457
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That's why Trump has to be constantly harping on either "The Deep State" or the Democratic (even mythical ones since he gets that's wrong so often) Governors of states. Since the Republicans control the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and the only House of Congress that can actually do anything the question of who exactly is stopping them from fixing everything has gotten fairly esoteric.

As opposed to the Left. During the last debate Trump said something to Biden to the effect of "You were in charge for 8 years, why didn't you fix everything?" and I wanted Biden to scream in his stupid face "Because for nearly all of that time we have an obstructionist Republican Congress, what's your excuse?"
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Old 26th October 2020, 07:16 AM   #2458
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaBrant View Post
I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?
In most jurisdictions, poll watchers aren't allowed to interact with the voter. I'm sure that in all jurisdictions, no one at the polling place is allowed to ask you that question. Exit pollsters can ask you that after you've left the polling place, but in the polling place, it's a secret ballot.
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Old 26th October 2020, 07:24 AM   #2459
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Texas went from .01 ahead for Biden to dead even this morning. If Biden wins Texas, this won't be a landslide, it will be a rout.
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Old 26th October 2020, 07:49 AM   #2460
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Texas went from .01 ahead for Biden to dead even this morning. If Biden wins Texas, this won't be a landslide, it will be a rout.
I like FiveThirtyEight's snake model; right now it says that all Biden really needs is Pennsylvania to get to 270 EC votes, and they're projecting him to win it by 5+ percentage points. If Texas is even truly competitive, it means that a lot of red dominoes have fallen and Biden is taking some or all of Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio.
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Old 26th October 2020, 07:53 AM   #2461
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But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.
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Old 26th October 2020, 07:58 AM   #2462
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.
That's my fear. That the Democrat votes are largely all already in and the numbers are doing to stay steady for the next 7 days and then on Election Day we get a wave on in person Republican voting on actual election day.'

//Standard I hope I'm wrong, I'll be totally psyched if I'm wrong, we don't have to have the "Justify your exact level optimism/pessimism" discussion caveat.//
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Old 26th October 2020, 08:07 AM   #2463
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
I like FiveThirtyEight's snake model; right now it says that all Biden really needs is Pennsylvania to get to 270 EC votes, and they're projecting him to win it by 5+ percentage points. If Texas is even truly competitive, it means that a lot of red dominoes have fallen and Biden is taking some or all of Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio.
Let's assume that their model is reasonably accurate and takes into account "shy" supporters of President Trump - those people who won't say they're going to vote for him, and maybe intend to vote for Joe Biden, but when push comes to shove they find themselves voting the GOP ticket because that's what they do - that's still a range between 2%-8% when the error bars are taken into account.

Around 6 million votes were cast in Pennsylvania last time around, so it could require as few as 120,000 Democratic votes to be thrown out if we're looking at the lower end of the range. The Republicans have firm control of the state legislature so I can easily envisage that happening.
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Old 26th October 2020, 08:15 AM   #2464
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Yes, one of the big problems with the US is that they actually have too much democracy, and they insist on doing it all on the same day.

In Canada, The Federal Election is just that - Federal, and nothing but. One vote, for your local MP, that represents the party you support.

Provincial and city or municipality level elections aren't held on the same day, and usually, not even in the same year, as the Federal elections. Plus, we don't have this bizarre notion that things like dogcatchers and medical examiners should be elected positions. We hire professionals for stuff like that.
I wouldn't so much call it too much democracy as democracy in all the wrong places. For example national and state level elections aren't democratic in nature. But then you have elections for positions and jobs which should in no way be put to the public (like local judges, sherrifs, civil service positions &c) and which should be based on merit decided either by a defined employment process or by a group of independent experts.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Pennsylvania Ballot “mistakes” made, in my opinion, on purpose by the Democrat Governor, puts Republicans, in particular @SeanParnellUSA, at great risk. Corrupt politics in Pennsylvania must be investigated immediately. By the way, Philadelphia is out of control. @TheJusticeDept
Does Parnell really fellate that well?

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Old 26th October 2020, 08:45 AM   #2465
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Well, there's good and bad news, for Pence. The good news is that if Pence gets the 'rona, his God will send an angel to heal him! The bad news is that the angel will be female, and Pence will refuse to be in a room with her, and thus not get cured.
Silly rabbit monkey, angels are "male."
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Old 26th October 2020, 08:46 AM   #2466
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Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!
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Old 26th October 2020, 08:49 AM   #2467
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trump Tweets

Thank you! #MAGA

The New York Post endorses President Donald J. Trump for re-election
We can return to the explosive job creation, rising wages and general prosperity we had before the pandemic. We can have economic freedom and opportunity, and resist cancel culture and censorship. We
nypost.com
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Old 26th October 2020, 09:20 AM   #2468
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Let's assume that their model is reasonably accurate and takes into account "shy" supporters of President Trump
I'm sure they take them into account to the degree needed, since there is no evidence they ever existed.
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Old 26th October 2020, 09:33 AM   #2469
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaBrant View Post
I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?
This is truly strange for me. Where I am you just DON'T ask that of people, except if you are some exit poll person, but then you would show credentials of some kind.

Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.

Hans
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Old 26th October 2020, 09:38 AM   #2470
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!
He's back to "it's their new hoax" from March.
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Old 26th October 2020, 11:22 AM   #2471
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Originally Posted by MRC_Hans View Post
This is truly strange for me. Where I am you just DON'T ask that of people, except if you are some exit poll person, but then you would show credentials of some kind.

Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.

Hans
Actually it was a close vote and I got stopped by people canvassing the area making sure people got to the polls. Was supporters for a left wing candidate in a local election. I voted for him but he lost anyway
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Old 26th October 2020, 12:33 PM   #2472
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
But isn't this all early voting? Surely the real deal will be next week. I wouldn't assume the early numbers are representative of the eventual total numbers.
I don't think so. Early votes are not counted until election day. What you're seeing now are the results of late polls. I doubt very much polling will be done in the last week; why bother.
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Old 26th October 2020, 12:37 PM   #2473
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I don't think so. Early votes are not counted until election day.
That depends entirely on the state. Florida for instance has already been counting votes for a week while Pennsylvania can't even so much as pretty much make eye contact with the stacks of ballots until election day.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/92625...sing-timelines
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Old 26th October 2020, 12:42 PM   #2474
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Originally Posted by MRC_Hans View Post
Otherwise, your vote is private, and asking people who they vote for is extremely bad style.
Same as USA - well, the parts I inhabit. But it's generally true. Asking how someone voted is a no-no.
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Old 26th October 2020, 12:48 PM   #2475
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.

"I'm a Brother , a Brother, a Brother am I
Or so it appeals to the casual eye
TV wants blacks, but it does not want them real;
so Oreos like us get a hell of a deal"

Anybody else remember The Brothers Brothers from "In Living Color?'

Not as popular as Homey the Clown and Fire Marshall Bill but still pretty funny,and a biting comment on how TV treats BLacks.
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Old 26th October 2020, 02:19 PM   #2476
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He's back to "it's their new hoax" from March.
The "hoax" just seems to have infected Pence and five people in his circle .
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Old 26th October 2020, 02:26 PM   #2477
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election. COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!

Three BIG Rallies today. Heading to Pennsylvania. I have plenty to say about the dishonesty of the Media and Sleepy Joe. A terrible coverup is happening in our Country!!!

We are winning big on the voting numbers. Get out and Vote. Bigger than 2016!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!


How dare the news media report on the growing disaster.
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Old 26th October 2020, 02:28 PM   #2478
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Trump just now in PA on the potential of winner declared after Nov 3: "We'll end up in the Supreme Court..they want to drag it out..we are in lots of court having to do with this & having to do with many states, about 5..we're not going to let this election be taken away from us"
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Old 26th October 2020, 02:28 PM   #2479
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.
You really should get out more.
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Old 26th October 2020, 02:33 PM   #2480
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
In most jurisdictions, poll watchers aren't allowed to interact with the voter. I'm sure that in all jurisdictions, no one at the polling place is allowed to ask you that question. Exit pollsters can ask you that after you've left the polling place, but in the polling place, it's a secret ballot.
Yep. That's part of the training that poll watchers typically receive. It's usually a couple of people just to be sure nothing weird is happening with the judges and other volunteers.

In MD, the setup is typically one person to check you in, a second person to walk you over to a particular booth (was electronic here for, like 1-2 elections, we're back to paper ballots now), and a third to scan in the vote (by card when it was electronic, now using a Scantron-esque contraption).Each one is only allowed particular interactions, and nobody can ask who or what you're voting for.

And these are at actually voting locations - the "poll watchers" in this case wouldn't actually watch any polls, just people calling help hotlines, showing up to register to vote, and so forth. It's basically his goons looking to intimidate the workers.
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