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Old 13th March 2019, 03:12 PM   #4161
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
I saw a bit of that, something about the Vienna Convention governing treaties and how countries could unilaterally withdraw from such treaties.

Fair play to AG Cox, he said that while it was doable, the circumstances under which it could be done were so extreme, and the reputation of a country withdrawing by such a mechanism would be so shot, he seriously wouldn't recommend doing it.
Many folk felt the same about the referendum, no way would we vote to leave.....
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:20 PM   #4162
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No-deal Brexit panic sets in as UK shoppers stockpile painkillers and toilet roll

That's straight out of my country when we were still communistic state...
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:30 PM   #4163
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Originally Posted by Mr Fied View Post
Have I got this right?

We can have vote after vote on Theresa's deal until it goes through, but a second referendum now the outcome of leaving is "clearer" would be undemocratic?
The irony hasn't been lost on many.
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Old 13th March 2019, 04:27 PM   #4164
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It's like trying to do a naive sort.

Vote. Is this what we want? No? Try again.
Vote. Is this what we want? No? Try again
Vote. Is this what we want? No? Try again.

..........
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Old 13th March 2019, 09:09 PM   #4165
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It's "Like the Titanic voting for the iceberg to get out of the way" according to the EU.
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Old 13th March 2019, 09:38 PM   #4166
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You do realise that the "BBC" available in the US is nothing like any of the actual BBC channels?
No, I didn't know that. Is the "real" BBC available on the tubes. My bookmark for them is: http://www.bbc.com/

Is that not the real deal?
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Old 13th March 2019, 09:54 PM   #4167
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Several cabinet ministers also voted against the three line whip, supposedly without repercussions.
What is that?
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Old 13th March 2019, 10:06 PM   #4168
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
What is that?

Be in the House for the vote, and vote the way I tell you to vote.


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Old 13th March 2019, 10:34 PM   #4169
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
What is that?

It's an English Public School thing.
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Old 13th March 2019, 11:35 PM   #4170
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This is a sentiment I can agree with.
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Old 13th March 2019, 11:48 PM   #4171
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As I've been saying for a while, no deal is a nailed on certainty IMO.
I wouldn't be so sure.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ice-is-clearer

The ERG now wants to vote on the deal again, indicating they would support it in a third vote, if it was given slightly more lipstick and an earring.

Just for refference, this is what their leader had to say on the matter back in November:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-staying-in-eu

I think they're frightful Parliament will scrap Brexit, or else hold another referendum.

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Old 14th March 2019, 12:06 AM   #4172
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I wouldn't be so sure.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ice-is-clearer

The ERG now wants to vote on the deal again, indicating they would support it in a third vote, if it was given slightly more lipstick and an earring.
OTOH John Bercow, the speaker, has said that he is not minded to allow a third vote.

At this stage, who knows ?

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Just for refference, this is what their leader had to say on the matter back in November:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-staying-in-eu

I think they're frightful Parliament will scrap Brexit, or else hold another referendum.

McHrozni
I'm not so sure that their fears are justified. The "no-deal" vote failed by a whisker and so IMO there are enough MPs who will allow it to happen as the default (or more accurately are unwilling to act to stop it happening) on 29 March

I think the chances/risk (delete as applicable) of a second referendum is minimal, because there simply isn't the appetite for it in parliament. The Conservatives are dead set against it - because the two current possible outcomes, Theresa's Deal or no-deal are overwhelmingly preferred by Conservatives over no-Brexit or a closer relationship with the EU. Labour is split, with Jeremy Corbyn and the Corbynistas against it.

In the unlikely event of a second referendum, I believe the options will be Deal A vs No Deal. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives would allow no-Brexit to be an option because a narrow victory for a vague proposition nearly three years ago represents an unbreakable mandate
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Old 14th March 2019, 12:46 AM   #4173
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
OTOH John Bercow, the speaker, has said that he is not minded to allow a third vote.

At this stage, who knows ?
No one knows, that's for sure. There are two weeks left, a lot can happen in between.

Quote:
I'm not so sure that their fears are justified. The "no-deal" vote failed by a whisker and so IMO there are enough MPs who will allow it to happen as the default (or more accurately are unwilling to act to stop it happening) on 29 March
Maybe. At any rate the ERG are quite a lot less sure than you are, so it is possible they know something you don't. Given the gravity of the situation you should take this as tentative good news.

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In the unlikely event of a second referendum, I believe the options will be Deal A vs No Deal. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives would allow no-Brexit to be an option because a narrow victory for a vague proposition nearly three years ago represents an unbreakable mandate
Quite possibly, but as usual it is not so simple.
This would require the referendum to have two options, both of which were rejected by Parliament and exclude the option that - in all likelyhood - has majority support by the public.

Given all that why would you want a second referendum at all? Just pass the deal in Parliament in lieu of the referendum legislation and get on with it, it's cheaper, more effective and the end result will be the same anyway.

That's the tricky point with a second Brexit referendum, we're able to determine with near-absolute certainty which option will win, given the possible answers. The referendum is therefore pointless, you can just do your job and pass the necessary legislation through parliament instead.

Should EU demand one ... sure. If it provided a fig leaf, sure. The choices you posit don't do either.

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Old 14th March 2019, 01:06 AM   #4174
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
No one knows, that's for sure. There are two weeks left, a lot can happen in between.
For sure - and we seem to be in completely uncharted territory.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Maybe. At any rate the ERG are quite a lot less sure than you are, so it is possible they know something you don't. Given the gravity of the situation you should take this as tentative good news.
....or it could be that the ERG are just doing a bit of stirring. As has also been suggested upthread, they may vote for the deal and then immediately move to renege on the deal to ensure a no-deal post 29 March.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Quite possibly, but as usual it is not so simple.
This would require the referendum to have two options, both of which were rejected by Parliament and exclude the option that - in all likelyhood - has majority support by the public.
Yes, and that's why, as supporters of Brexit both Labour and Conservatives must ensure that no-Brexit isn't an option in the unlikely event of a second referendum.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Given all that why would you want a second referendum at all? Just pass the deal in Parliament in lieu of the referendum legislation and get on with it, it's cheaper, more effective and the end result will be the same anyway.
The issue is that they don't know what they want, and cannot get it through parliament but they can agree on what they don't want . In this case the vast majority of Conservative MPs and a significant number of Labour Party MPs (including the leader) don't want a second referendum for fear that there'll be no Brexit.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's the tricky point with a second Brexit referendum, we're able to determine with near-absolute certainty which option will win, given the possible answers. The referendum is therefore pointless, you can just do your job and pass the necessary legislation through parliament instead.
As with all the Brexit issues, the problem is that while there is reasonable certainty about what the MPs don't want, they cannot agree on what they do want and party politics prevent,say, an option acceptable to Conservative remainers being supported by them in any numbers if it's proposed by Labour

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Should EU demand one ... sure. If it provided a fig leaf, sure. The choices you posit don't do either.

McHrozni
If the EU were to do so, that would be the final nail in the coffin of any prospect of a second referendum and would mean that the UK parliament would reject the extension and we leave on the 29th with a no-deal.
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Old 14th March 2019, 01:24 AM   #4175
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....or it could be that the ERG are just doing a bit of stirring. As has also been suggested upthread, they may vote for the deal and then immediately move to renege on the deal to ensure a no-deal post 29 March.
How would that work? That would require a second vote, would it not?

Quote:
Yes, and that's why, as supporters of Brexit both Labour and Conservatives must ensure that no-Brexit isn't an option in the unlikely event of a second referendum.
You should add "in the name of the will of the people" when saying this. Depressing, but true.

Quote:
The issue is that they don't know what they want, and cannot get it through parliament but they can agree on what they don't want . In this case the vast majority of Conservative MPs and a significant number of Labour Party MPs (including the leader) don't want a second referendum for fear that there'll be no Brexit.
They know they want Brexit, come hell or high water, but they don't want any sort of Brexit that isn't both hell and high water combined, which they don't want.

But they still want Brexit. Because.

It's silly. A 52-48 majority is a popular mandate for only the Norway plus Brexit - if that - and here we are, two weeks before the deadline, and the debate is about the merits of a no deal Brexit that sees UK face a hostile EU.

The referendum did not mention this.

Quote:
If the EU were to do so, that would be the final nail in the coffin of any prospect of a second referendum and would mean that the UK parliament would reject the extension and we leave on the 29th with a no-deal.
I was thinking along the lines as to why Parliament might enact a new referendum in the first place. I realize the backlash would be severe if EU demanded a second referendum.

Probably, but if any extension is requested, EU will ask "why do you need it?". It's a reasonable question, what will UK do with a two month extension - the maximum that can be granted without opening major additional issues of European elections and whatnot.

If the deal passes UK might use the extra time to pass the necessary legislation, it would surely be granted for that. To better prepare for a no deal Brexit ... why? EU is as prepared as it can be, if UK isn't prepared today maybe a harsh lession in life would be welcome. It might still be granted sure, just to show the silly Brits who the real villain is.

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Old 14th March 2019, 02:12 AM   #4176
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
How would that work? That would require a second vote, would it not?
If they were to leave on Theresa May's deal that would require a successful third vote. The MP vote to prevent a no-deal can be ignored because it is only advisory (as opposed to the result of the advisory referendum which cannot be ignored )

Reneging on the terms would be a gradual thing, one bill at a time.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
You should add "in the name of the will of the people" when saying this. Depressing, but true.
It's all worrying and depressing. If this was happening in a country a long way away it might be entertaining but it isn't

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
They know they want Brexit, come hell or high water, but they don't want any sort of Brexit that isn't both hell and high water combined, which they don't want.

But they still want Brexit. Because.
Because 52% of people voted for it and MPs have convinced themselves that they'll be out on their ears if they try to stop it.

We voted to move house amid all kinds of promises about where we could move to and how little it would cost. The MPs still want to move house but cannot agree on where to move to because all moving options are unacceptable to at least half of them.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's silly. A 52-48 majority is a popular mandate for only the Norway plus Brexit - if that - and here we are, two weeks before the deadline, and the debate is about the merits of a no deal Brexit that sees UK face a hostile EU.

The referendum did not mention this.
Not even that, a significant proportion of those who voted Leave, likely the majority, don't want Norway type deal because they want to be free of the yoke of EU oppression and keep darkies out.


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I was thinking along the lines as to why Parliament might enact a new referendum in the first place. I realize the backlash would be severe if EU demanded a second referendum.
IMO it's pointless taking time thinking about a second referendum - it's an absolute non-starter because the Conservatives don't want it (they're happy enough crashing out with a no-deal) and enough Labour MPs (including the leader) don't want to risk Brexit.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Probably, but if any extension is requested, EU will ask "why do you need it?". It's a reasonable question, what will UK do with a two month extension - the maximum that can be granted without opening major additional issues of European elections and whatnot.

If the deal passes UK might use the extra time to pass the necessary legislation, it would surely be granted for that. To better prepare for a no deal Brexit ... why? EU is as prepared as it can be, if UK isn't prepared today maybe a harsh lession in life would be welcome. It might still be granted sure, just to show the silly Brits who the real villain is.

McHrozni
I agree that the EU should carefully interrogate the UK about any proposed extension. Unless there is good reason to expect a definitive conclusion then there'd be no point.

Then again, I think the point is moot, I expect the vote to extend to fail because it requires a positive move to say what MPs want as opposed to rejecting something they don't want.

A tiny number of Conservatives may "rebel" and ask for an extension, I expect them to be offset by Labour Brexiteers and as a result the extension vote will fail - narrowly.

Theresa May will immediately call for a third vote on her deal some time next week in the hope that she will finally get approval because the alternative is no-deal. Either way, it's a win/win for the Conservatives who will end up with their first or second choices.

Last edited by The Don; 14th March 2019 at 02:13 AM.
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Old 14th March 2019, 02:33 AM   #4177
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I had to share this: https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1105927514952749058

Eddie Mair interviewing Liz Truss (not the sharpest pencil in the box)

Eddie: “What about people who have changed their minds on Brexit?”
Liz Truss: “I don’t think people have changed their minds.”
Eddie: “You have.”
Liz Truss: “I have, that's true…”
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Old 14th March 2019, 02:58 AM   #4178
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
What is that?
It has it's origins in Fox Hunting. A 'Whipper In' was one of the men that controlled the hounds, making sure they stayed together as a pack and went the way the hunter s wanted them to go.

A 'Whip' is an MP who is tasked with making sure that all the party MPs vote the way the party leader wants. 'Three Lines' refers to the number of lines under the written orders. A 'three line whip' is the most forceful.
Whips are feared by the rest of the house, they will use all kinds of dirty tricks and blackmail to force their 'troops' through the right lobby.
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Old 14th March 2019, 03:19 AM   #4179
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
It's "Like the Titanic voting for the iceberg to get out of the way" according to the EU.
The Titanic seems a natural analogy for this process. This was the conclusion of my answer to a Quora question about whether Johnson or Rees-Mogg would have handled Brexit better than May-:

Quote:
May is the Captain of the Titanic, she's probably going to hit the iceburg and go down with the ship. Boris would hit the iceburg, tell everyone that all is well while he fills three lifeboats with the finest food and booze from the galley and floats off to safety. Rees-Mogg would do similar, except that he'd have tripled the insurance on the ship first and afterwards give speeches about how it is the natural order of things that steerage class passengers should want to swim in freezing Atlantic water.
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Old 14th March 2019, 03:20 AM   #4180
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It has it's origins in Fox Hunting. A 'Whipper In' was one of the men that controlled the hounds, making sure they stayed together as a pack and went the way the hunter s wanted them to go.

A 'Whip' is an MP who is tasked with making sure that all the party MPs vote the way the party leader wants. 'Three Lines' refers to the number of lines under the written orders. A 'three line whip' is the most forceful.
Whips are feared by the rest of the house, they will use all kinds of dirty tricks and blackmail to force their 'troops' through the right lobby.
All in the name of democracy, I presume?
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Old 14th March 2019, 03:41 AM   #4181
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
All in the name of democracy, I presume?
I think it's fair to say that every political party in every country with anything resembling political opposition will use similar techniques to try and ensure their representatives vote the right way on key issues. The British system does possibly have the advantage of making the process somewhat open. Of course the way that these party political roles are financed by the public is a bit iffy.
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Old 14th March 2019, 03:44 AM   #4182
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If they were to leave on Theresa May's deal that would require a successful third vote. The MP vote to prevent a no-deal can be ignored because it is only advisory (as opposed to the result of the advisory referendum which cannot be ignored )

Reneging on the terms would be a gradual thing, one bill at a time.
Ah, I see. Scum, the lot.

Quote:
It's all worrying and depressing. If this was happening in a country a long way away it might be entertaining but it isn't
My perspective is markedly different than yours. Still, I'm telling you, there was little but pessimism from you for the past 2.5 years we've been having these discussions, it gets you nowhere.

Even when you're right all along it still gets you nowhere.

Quote:
Not even that, a significant proportion of those who voted Leave, likely the majority, don't want Norway type deal because they want to be free of the yoke of EU oppression and keep darkies out.
Every single one of those who voted remain wants to keep the 'yoke' of the EU oppression and keep darkies (who don't come from the EU anyway) in, so I can make a rational argument for a Norway-style Brexit.

Any form Brexit beyond that has no popular mandate. It could have one by now, but thanks to Theresa May, it doesn't.

Quote:
IMO it's pointless taking time thinking about a second referendum - it's an absolute non-starter because the Conservatives don't want it (they're happy enough crashing out with a no-deal) and enough Labour MPs (including the leader) don't want to risk Brexit.
Maybe, but talking about a second referendum, even if the ultimate goal is unreachable, still keeps the debate of popular mandate of Brexit front and center. This alone makes it worthwhile to boot. Even if there is a no deal Brexit there will be a new EU-UK deal eventually, making sure the politicians know what the public wants way in advance, before the next election, is worthwhile all by itself.

Sometimes the way to the goal is more valuable than the goal itself. A new Brexit referendum is just that. That was the whole point behind the last one after all - no one in their wildest dreams imagined Leave would win, Orange Baboon wanted to use the result to usher himself in power. He didn't want Brexit, he wanted 10 Downing street and EU membership.

Same logic applies here.

Quote:
I agree that the EU should carefully interrogate the UK about any proposed extension. Unless there is good reason to expect a definitive conclusion then there'd be no point.

Then again, I think the point is moot, I expect the vote to extend to fail because it requires a positive move to say what MPs want as opposed to rejecting something they don't want.

A tiny number of Conservatives may "rebel" and ask for an extension, I expect them to be offset by Labour Brexiteers and as a result the extension vote will fail - narrowly.

Theresa May will immediately call for a third vote on her deal some time next week in the hope that she will finally get approval because the alternative is no-deal. Either way, it's a win/win for the Conservatives who will end up with their first or second choices.
Could be, she's already saying there may well be a third vote on the deal soon. UK will still need an extension to shove all the legislation through I suppose, but EU will be forthcoming in that, the negotiators already said so and the 27 countries ae having a much easier time agreeing than UK does. It's funny how that works sometimes.

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Old 14th March 2019, 03:47 AM   #4183
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If they were to leave on Theresa May's deal that would require a successful third vote. The MP vote to prevent a no-deal can be ignored because it is only advisory (as opposed to the result of the advisory referendum which cannot be ignored )

Reneging on the terms would be a gradual thing, one bill at a time.
Ah, I see. Scum, the lot.

Quote:
It's all worrying and depressing. If this was happening in a country a long way away it might be entertaining but it isn't
Indeed, my perspective is markedly different than yours. Still, I'm telling you, there was little but pessimism from you for the past 2.5 years we've been having these discussions, it gets you nowhere.

Even when you're right all along it still gets you nowhere.

Quote:
Not even that, a significant proportion of those who voted Leave, likely the majority, don't want Norway type deal because they want to be free of the yoke of EU oppression and keep darkies out.
Every single one of those who voted remain wants to keep the 'yoke' of the EU oppression and keep darkies (who don't come from the EU anyway) in, so I can make a rational argument for a Norway-style Brexit.

Any form Brexit beyond that has no popular mandate at this point. It could have one, but it doesn't.

Quote:
IMO it's pointless taking time thinking about a second referendum - it's an absolute non-starter because the Conservatives don't want it (they're happy enough crashing out with a no-deal) and enough Labour MPs (including the leader) don't want to risk Brexit.
Maybe, but talking about a second referendum, even if the ultimate goal is unreachable, still keeps the debate of popular mandate of Brexit front and center. This alone makes it worthwhile to boot. Even if there is a no deal Brexit there will be a new EU-UK deal eventually, making sure the politicians know what the public wants way in advance, before the next election, is worthwhile all by itself.

Sometimes the way to the goal is more valuable than the goal itself. A new Brexit referendum is just that. That was the whole point behind the last one after all - no one in their wildest dreams imagined Leave would win, Orange Baboon wanted to use the result to usher himself in power. He didn't want Brexit, he wanted 10 Downing street and EU membership.

Same logic applies here.

Quote:
I agree that the EU should carefully interrogate the UK about any proposed extension. Unless there is good reason to expect a definitive conclusion then there'd be no point.

Then again, I think the point is moot, I expect the vote to extend to fail because it requires a positive move to say what MPs want as opposed to rejecting something they don't want.

A tiny number of Conservatives may "rebel" and ask for an extension, I expect them to be offset by Labour Brexiteers and as a result the extension vote will fail - narrowly.

Theresa May will immediately call for a third vote on her deal some time next week in the hope that she will finally get approval because the alternative is no-deal. Either way, it's a win/win for the Conservatives who will end up with their first or second choices.
Could be, she's already saying there may well be a third vote on the deal soon. UK will still need an extension to shove all the legislation through I suppose, but EU will be forthcoming in that, the negotiators already said so and the 27 countries ae having a much easier time agreeing than UK does. It's funny how that works sometimes.

At any rate, given that the deal was already rejected twice and the no deal Brexit was also already rejected, she really should call for a vote to see if the MPs want to stop Brexit altogether. It may be pointless because it will fail, but this is one one option that wasn't so much as a glance since the referendum. MPs might vote against, but they'd be given a vote and would have to take responsibility for it.

Maybe hold the votes in succession for the rest of the period, a vote on no Brexit on monday, deal on Tuesday, no deal Brexit on wednesday, extension on thursday.
Repeat the process twice. If nothing passes in two weeks it really isn't your fault any more.

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Old 14th March 2019, 03:55 AM   #4184
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Every single one of those who voted remain wants to keep the 'yoke' of the EU oppression and keep darkies (who don't come from the EU anyway) in, so I can make a rational argument for a Norway-style Brexit.

Any form Brexit beyond that has no popular mandate. It could have one by now, but thanks to Theresa May, it doesn't.
I agree that a Norway-style Brexit (and by that I mean continued EEA membership) would be the least damaging version of Brexit and that it's likely that I and the vast majority of my fellow Remoaners would reluctantly support it if the alternative was a harder form of Brexit (there may be some Remain absolutists).

Continued EEA membership could be a pragmatic way forward but currently the two largest political parties are opposed to it - the Conservatives for a variety of reasons and Labour primarily because they are against freedom of movement. IMO there is no prospect of any significant change to either party's position and so EEA membership simply isn't on the cards.
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Old 14th March 2019, 03:59 AM   #4185
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
[...]and the 27 countries are having a much easier time agreeing than UK does.
I suspect they're having a very easy time agreeing we're all ******* nuts. Probably about half of us agree with them too.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:04 AM   #4186
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I agree that a Norway-style Brexit (and by that I mean continued EEA membership) would be the least damaging version of Brexit and that it's likely that I and the vast majority of my fellow Remoaners would reluctantly support it if the alternative was a harder form of Brexit (there may be some Remain absolutists).

Continued EEA membership could be a pragmatic way forward but currently the two largest political parties are opposed to it - the Conservatives for a variety of reasons and Labour primarily because they are against freedom of movement. IMO there is no prospect of any significant change to either party's position and so EEA membership simply isn't on the cards.
Any rational approach to Brexit would see an exit in stages. First exiti the EU and opting for a Norway-style agreement for a few years, then slowly setting up your institutions to exit the EEA and retain the customs union and other perks for a while. Then figure out what to do with NI, maybe develop, deploy and test that fancy sci-fi technology that allows you to keep a customs border without checkpoints.

After all that - budget 20 years to get this far - set up a long-term "Canada plus" style deal with EU and make sure all your major trading partners are willing to roll over the existing deals into bilateral ones and quit the customs union to make all those wonderful new trade deals we've all been hearing about. Or just keep on living with minimized damage to national economy, world reputation and influence at any rate.

But that approach requires people in charge of Brexit to be rational, capable and intelligent to boot. There is a profound lack of people with a single of those characteristics in camp Brexit.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:07 AM   #4187
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I suspect they're having a very easy time agreeing we're all ******* nuts. Probably about half of us agree with them too.

Dave
No doubt, but they also agree on more difficult questions - such as "what do we do next?".

Not once was EU caught off guard, like a deer in the headlights. UK is still figuring out what these headlights all mean.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:26 AM   #4188
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Because nothing says "reliable future trading partner" than ripping up treaty obligations.
Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
I saw a bit of that, something about the Vienna Convention governing treaties and how countries could unilaterally withdraw from such treaties.

Fair play to AG Cox, he said that while it was doable, the circumstances under which it could be done were so extreme, and the reputation of a country withdrawing by such a mechanism would be so shot, he seriously wouldn't recommend doing it.
Both of these seem to believe that the concern of the ERG is the best for the UK rather than a narrow minded and short term need to make a profit and to make good on their promises to their Russian paymasters who may or may not have some sordid info on them.

It's becoming increasingly obvious, and others seem to have started saying the same this morning, that the ERG might now be willing to agree to May's deal, get rid of her forthwith, take over and then start dismantling the agreement.

Their vehemence that we need to get out completely is not reasonable or considered. Think to yourself.. how much would it take for you to start parroting these same arguments? If you stood to gain a couple of hundred grand personally? A million? A few million?

Not many of us couldn't be bought for some sum and then look at these sleazy, corrupt, dishonest slimeballs in the ERG and think about how much they personally stand to profit from all of this. Scum. Utter scum.
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Old 14th March 2019, 04:26 AM   #4189
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Any rational approach to Brexit would see an exit in stages. First exiti the EU and opting for a Norway-style agreement for a few years, then slowly setting up your institutions to exit the EEA and retain the customs union and other perks for a while. Then figure out what to do with NI, maybe develop, deploy and test that fancy sci-fi technology that allows you to keep a customs border without checkpoints.

After all that - budget 20 years to get this far - set up a long-term "Canada plus" style deal with EU and make sure all your major trading partners are willing to roll over the existing deals into bilateral ones and quit the customs union to make all those wonderful new trade deals we've all been hearing about. Or just keep on living with minimized damage to national economy, world reputation and influence at any rate.

But that approach requires people in charge of Brexit to be rational, capable and intelligent to boot. There is a profound lack of people with a single of those characteristics in camp Brexit.

McHrozni
Nothing about Brexit seems rational to me. IMO the architects of Brexit had a clear set of objectives in mind and these will be satisfied by no deal or any deal with plenty of economic disruption. The headline reasons of sovereignty, immigration and so on
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Old 14th March 2019, 04:27 AM   #4190
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Trump just tweeted

My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!
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Old 14th March 2019, 04:36 AM   #4191
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
not the sharpest pencil in the box
Who is?

Seriously, the whole Brexit thing has exposed a lot of our politicians as woefully incapable of reasoning, comprehending and analysing even remotely complex issues.

It has put a lie to the idea that Eton, Oxford and Cambridge are some great seats of advanced learning producing elite thinkers.

And it has killed forever the idea that becoming and/or remaining a Government minister requires even the slightest iota of competence.

It's equal parts cesspool and utter shambles and the sooner my country is done with them the better.
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Old 14th March 2019, 04:37 AM   #4192
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Nothing about Brexit seems rational to me. IMO the architects of Brexit had a clear set of objectives in mind and these will be satisfied by no deal or any deal with plenty of economic disruption. The headline reasons of sovereignty, immigration and so on
No, it is perfectly rational, if you make the following assumptions:

- the architects expected Remain to win
- they intended to use the vote to wrestle control of the Conservative party to themselves

Then the whole thing snaps into place. That's why there is still no plan to speak of, after offering it for nearly three years: they never expected to win and know one can't be made.
That's why they won't back down even in the face of calamity, if they admit defeat they better start searching for new employment elsewhere, their plan backfired and their dreams of glory are replaced by a cresspool of derision.

Some of their backers - most of the ERG group, Corbyn and his lemmings - are useful idiots, but the actions of key 10 or so people at the speartip of Brexit (Ress-Mogg, BJ and a few others) are all just as rational as they are immoral, selfish and destructive.

That's why the debate about another referendum and alternatives must be kept alive until even after Brexit. Even if the result is a no deal, none of those people should replace Theresa May.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:40 AM   #4193
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump just tweeted

My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!
No doubt, if by "a large scale Trade Deal" he means "Unequal treaty".

History tends to be ironic.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:42 AM   #4194
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post

But that approach requires people in charge of Brexit to be rational, capable and intelligent to boot.
It would require them to be working in the interests of the country rather than their own personal financial betterment.

This is one key thing that strikes me in the differences between the Independence movement in Scotland and the EU Leave campaign. Agree or disagree with the SNP I don't think any of them hold the positions they do for any reason other than they think it will be the best thing for Scotland, and I doubt many if any of them would stand to benefit personally to any great degree from independence.
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Old 14th March 2019, 04:44 AM   #4195
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
No, I didn't know that. Is the "real" BBC available on the tubes. My bookmark for them is: http://www.bbc.com/

Is that not the real deal?
Rather than the website I was thinking more of the TV channels available on US cable/satellite, i.e. BBC America and BBC World News. The former bears virtually no similarity to the BBC's actual main channels (BBC1 & BBC2), and the latter is very different from the domestic BBC News channel.

As for the website, in the UK it's bbc.co.uk and doesn't carry adverts. I think the news section is broadly similar (non-UK quoted .com URLs automatically convert to .co.uk in the UK), but may not show the same report priority. I would imagine that elsewhere on the site a lot of content is blocked for non-UK users.

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Old 14th March 2019, 04:48 AM   #4196
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It would require them to be working in the interests of the country rather than their own personal financial betterment.
Yeah. That too.

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This is one key thing that strikes me in the differences between the Independence movement in Scotland and the EU Leave campaign. Agree or disagree with the SNP I don't think any of them hold the positions they do for any reason other than they think it will be the best thing for Scotland, and I doubt many if any of them would stand to benefit personally to any great degree from independence.
That's true, yes. In fact, I suspect most of them accept they would be worse off, at least in the short to medium term.

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Old 14th March 2019, 05:01 AM   #4197
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I agree that a Norway-style Brexit (and by that I mean continued EEA membership) would be the least damaging version of Brexit and that it's likely that I and the vast majority of my fellow Remoaners would reluctantly support it if the alternative was a harder form of Brexit (there may be some Remain absolutists).

Continued EEA membership could be a pragmatic way forward but currently the two largest political parties are opposed to it - the Conservatives for a variety of reasons and Labour primarily because they are against freedom of movement. IMO there is no prospect of any significant change to either party's position and so EEA membership simply isn't on the cards.
I would certainly think that the overwhelming majority of Remain voters would back a Norway-type deal to no-deal. There must also be a non-trivial number of Leave voters who would also prefer it, given that certain Leave campaigners were so keen to stress it as an option in the run-up to the Referendum. The need to appeal to those who would be swayed by it must have been based on some evidence that it was worth doing.
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Old 14th March 2019, 05:10 AM   #4198
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
I think it's fair to say that every political party in every country with anything resembling political opposition will use similar techniques to try and ensure their representatives vote the right way on key issues. The British system does possibly have the advantage of making the process somewhat open. Of course the way that these party political roles are financed by the public is a bit iffy.
Yes and no.
In my country there are often only a few persons per party present for voting. Then voting is by holding hands up. The people present are supposed to then vote for the entire party and the vote counting is then assumed to be by partylines.
If a member of parliament, any member, asks for a head count, then all members present count for one vote only, but can vote the way they like. I'm certain that there are provisio's to make certain that as many members as possible can then be present for that particular voting.
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Old 14th March 2019, 05:12 AM   #4199
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
I would certainly think that the overwhelming majority of Remain voters would back a Norway-type deal to no-deal. There must also be a non-trivial number of Leave voters who would also prefer it, given that certain Leave campaigners were so keen to stress it as an option in the run-up to the Referendum.
The most rational and sensible leave voter I know said to me, "I'd be happy if we could stay in the EEC if it still existed; it's the EU I don't like." I'm pretty sure he'd be happy with something like the Norway option. I could hold my nose and live with it.

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Old 14th March 2019, 05:16 AM   #4200
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
I would certainly think that the overwhelming majority of Remain voters would back a Norway-type deal to no-deal. There must also be a non-trivial number of Leave voters who would also prefer it, given that certain Leave campaigners were so keen to stress it as an option in the run-up to the Referendum. The need to appeal to those who would be swayed by it must have been based on some evidence that it was worth doing.
But this is part of the problem. While Remainers would prefer Norway to no-deal they would prefer Remain to Norway and while the whole thing is a mess and there is no clear route forward Remaining seems just as likely as Norway or any other option.

There is no way in which either Parliament or the people can express these opinions because the whole thing has been stitched up to allow only certain special interest groups a voice.

Nobody is working honestly to find a compromise solution. Nobody that matters anyway.
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