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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:07 AM   #521
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Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard...single-market/
His arguments are a load of rubbish. The same mixture of denial and half truths that Brexiters have been engaging on with the Irish border conundrum ever since the vote.

The only way to both avoid a hard border and preserve the integrity of the Single Market is to have controls on goods entering the island of Ireland, and the only way to do that without undermining the UK is to keep the whole UK inside a customs union with the EU. Hence, the backstop.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:52 PM   #522
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
In the case of Johnson I think it might be because he had to. He basically created a power base by pushing the leave narrative. By suddenly going "oh I didn't mean it" would basically destroy the support he has.

Since the referendum I'd say that every move he's made is still motivated by personal gain. The clearest is dropping out of the vote for PM. Even he knew that this was a career ending position to be in which is why he didn't take it.
Redundant text removed.

I am wondering if Trump Johnson is positioning himself as a True Believer Who Was Sabotaged By His PM And So Can't Accept The Deal She Has Negotiated And Now The Best Bet Is To Remain In The EU.

Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
His arguments are a load of rubbish. The same mixture of denial and half truths that Brexiters have been engaging on with the Irish border conundrum ever since the vote.

The only way to both avoid a hard border and preserve the integrity of the Single Market is to have controls on goods entering the island of Ireland, and the only way to do that without undermining the UK is to keep the whole UK inside a customs union with the EU. Hence, the backstop.
Indeed.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 01:31 PM   #523
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I think May was a Leaver who campaigned for Remain because she judged, correctly, that the Tory party never rewards the one who puts the knife in the back of a leader, however unpopular that leader might be. I think Johnson hoped that Brexit was a cause that would cause that would override that unwritten rule, as with everything else he miscalculated.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 01:31 PM   #524
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Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard...single-market/
He basically just hand waves away all the real issues, saying they can/will happen but never giving any details on how these magic solutions will work. What he is really presenting isn’t so much answers to the problem but a wish list for what he’d like in the final agreement.

Unfortunately the reason for a backstop agreement in the first place is that they have been unable to negotiate a workable solution for the things he wants, and the reason that backstop agreement is likely to remain in place forever is because it’s unlikely that they will ever be able to negotiate the agreement he's outlined.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 01:37 PM   #525
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Brexit Divorce:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


Made me ROFL
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Old 3rd December 2018, 03:13 PM   #526
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Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard...single-market/
I don't understand how any brexiteer does not want a hard border in Ireland. Surely the main idea of leaving was so that "we" regained control of our borders. If we haven't got a border, how can we control it?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 03:46 PM   #527
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The opposition has put forth a motion to hold the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, in contempt for having disobeyed the order to produce the full legal advice on Brexit to the members of the House, instead releasing a summary.

It's being suggested that if Bercow permits the motion to be debated, which he promised an answer to either tonight or tomorrow, it could be seen as a weathervane on whether or not May has the votes to pass the Brexit bill. There's already 95 Tory MP's who has stated they cannot support it, and if the Attorney General is found in contempt, he will be suspended from the House and cannot vote for it either.

More on the story from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-advice-deal
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Old 3rd December 2018, 05:47 PM   #528
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
The opposition has put forth a motion to hold the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, in contempt for having disobeyed the order to produce the full legal advice on Brexit to the members of the House, instead releasing a summary.

It's being suggested that if Bercow permits the motion to be debated, which he promised an answer to either tonight or tomorrow, it could be seen as a weathervane on whether or not May has the votes to pass the Brexit bill. There's already 95 Tory MP's who has stated they cannot support it, and if the Attorney General is found in contempt, he will be suspended from the House and cannot vote for it either.

More on the story from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-advice-deal
As we now know, he has admitted the motion for the House to decide.

Bercow is a remainer and sports a car sticker reading 'Brexit is Bollocks'.
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Old 4th December 2018, 01:30 AM   #529
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And the positive news is that the courts have decided that we can unilaterally revoke Art 50 if we come to our senses. This has to be done surely if the deal is not passed
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Old 4th December 2018, 02:11 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
As we now know, he has admitted the motion for the House to decide.

Bercow is a remainer and sports a car sticker reading 'Brexit is Bollocks'.
“Bollocks to Brexit”
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Old 4th December 2018, 02:12 AM   #531
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
And the positive news is that the courts have decided that we can unilaterally revoke Art 50 if we come to our senses. This has to be done surely if the deal is not passed
Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?
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Old 4th December 2018, 02:22 AM   #532
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?
This is a non-binding opinion by the ECJ's advocate general. If the ECJ rules that it's correct, then it's a matter of EU law, and I would think the rest of the EU countries are bound by treaty to accept it. But in any case I suspect most of the rest of the EU would be more than happy to see the whole Brexit issue disappear.

Dave
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Old 4th December 2018, 04:12 AM   #533
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?
If the opinion of the ECJ member is correct, nobody even needs to.
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Old 4th December 2018, 04:23 AM   #534
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In the "Overheard in restaurant.." category, here's Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...251183619.html

My favourite bit:
Quote:
Truss: My new vision is all about the roads. We need to push to get company sponsorship for the Top 10 motorways. Like they have in the USA where Burger King sponsor pot holes. We'll wait until the New Year though because obviously now everything is consumed by Brexit.
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Old 4th December 2018, 04:32 AM   #535
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
In the "Overheard in restaurant.." category, here's Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...251183619.html

My favourite bit:
With the roads around here, "Polo Mints" might be interested in applying.
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Old 4th December 2018, 05:23 AM   #536
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
If the opinion of the ECJ member is correct, nobody even needs to.
That would be lucky for you. If his opinion is correct.

Apparantly it is not certain though. And in that case politics can come into play.

I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct

One where the UK is let back in the EU and all is forgotten.
The other where the other countries will want to exact some kind of retribution from the UK (adopting the euro?) in order to accept the revoking of art 50.

I do think the first option to be more likely, but won't dismiss the second option either.

Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.
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Old 4th December 2018, 05:29 AM   #537
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?
It is not a matter for the EU countries as any dispute would be referred to the ECJ to ajudicate and this today shows that the ECJ would accept that it can be revoked unilaterally.

The only issue then would be getting Parliament to vote it through or TM to take one for the team and do it herself.
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Old 4th December 2018, 05:32 AM   #538
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct
ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.

Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.
I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.

Dave
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Old 4th December 2018, 05:45 AM   #539
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.



I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.

Dave
highlighted.
True. apologies for my sloppiness.
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Old 4th December 2018, 06:30 AM   #540
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
If his opinion is correct.
You're repeating what I said.
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Old 4th December 2018, 07:11 AM   #541
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
You're repeating what I said.
And I went a bit further than this in the rest of my post about what it could mean for the future, in my opinion.

So, I'm not clear what you mean by this.
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Old 4th December 2018, 07:20 AM   #542
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
That would be lucky for you. If his opinion is correct.

Apparantly it is not certain though. And in that case politics can come into play.

I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct

One where the UK is let back in the EU and all is forgotten.
The other where the other countries will want to exact some kind of retribution from the UK (adopting the euro?) in order to accept the revoking of art 50.

I do think the first option to be more likely, but won't dismiss the second option either.

Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.
We won't have left so there would be no letting back in - our membership simply wouldn't end so whatever "special treatment" we get would also continue.
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Old 4th December 2018, 07:23 AM   #543
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.



I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.

Dave
I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!
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Old 4th December 2018, 07:25 AM   #544
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!
Good luck with that. If it happened, everyone who voted Leave in the first referendum would never stop mentioning it again.

Dave
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Old 4th December 2018, 07:27 AM   #545
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!
I already have had a mental image of some British holiday makers in a hotel in Germany, where the eccentric hotel manager tells his staff "don't mention Brexit! I did, but I think I got away with it".
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Old 4th December 2018, 08:02 AM   #546
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
We won't have left so there would be no letting back in - our membership simply wouldn't end so whatever "special treatment" we get would also continue.
Maybe, but I am pretty sure you can say good by to any future special offers.
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Old 4th December 2018, 08:11 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Maybe, but I am pretty sure you can say good by to any future special offers.
We are where we are. There's nothing we can do to prevent the damage already done, but the UK should limit further damage.
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Old 4th December 2018, 08:43 AM   #548
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
We are where we are. There's nothing we can do to prevent the damage already done, but the UK should limit further damage.
At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.
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Old 4th December 2018, 10:02 AM   #549
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.
Would you vote leave again?
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Old 4th December 2018, 10:31 AM   #550
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
He basically just hand waves away all the real issues, saying they can/will happen but never giving any details on how these magic solutions will work. What he is really presenting isn’t so much answers to the problem but a wish list for what he’d like in the final agreement.

Unfortunately the reason for a backstop agreement in the first place is that they have been unable to negotiate a workable solution for the things he wants, and the reason that backstop agreement is likely to remain in place forever is because it’s unlikely that they will ever be able to negotiate the agreement he's outlined.
If you don't mind could you break down why his arguments relating to how there can be an invisible border in relation to customs and goods doesn't stack up?
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Old 4th December 2018, 10:41 AM   #551
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The Government has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. Just let that sentence sink in for a minute.
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Old 4th December 2018, 10:42 AM   #552
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Would you vote leave again?
Depends on the options presented.

If it was a choice between, Mays deal and hard Brexit, I'd vote hard Brexit.

If it was a leave/remain choice, this time around I'd probably choose Remain, but be sad about it.

I (naively?) assumed after a Brexit vote there'd be twoish years of arguing over it and then a deal would be done and that would be that. The way things are looking now there are still many more years of arguing ahead while the country is stuck in limbo and neither in or out. I think that being in that kind of limbo for a long time, that much uncertainty for that much time is way worse for the UK than either remaining in the EU or a hard exit.
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Old 4th December 2018, 10:57 AM   #553
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Full legal advice to be published after contempt vote

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46446694

The government will publish its full legal advice on Theresa May's Brexit deal after MPs found it in contempt of Parliament for not doing so.

The Commons supported a motion, backed by six opposition parties, demanding full disclosure, by 311 votes to 293.
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Old 4th December 2018, 11:04 AM   #554
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The Government has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. Just let that sentence sink in for a minute.

What was the sentence?
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Old 4th December 2018, 11:27 AM   #555
The Moog
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.
That's a very optimistic forecast. Where did you get this from?
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Old 4th December 2018, 11:41 AM   #556
P.J. Denyer
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.

My vote (or votes depending on format) would be very different to yours, but otherwise I agree with much of you've written with regard to how we would best move forward.

As a remainer I applaud your post.
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Last edited by P.J. Denyer; 4th December 2018 at 11:45 AM.
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Old 4th December 2018, 11:45 AM   #557
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Ah, but if you can work it by having the lamb arrive via a non-tariff country - which you could only do if you had a registered company based there - then you can get around the tariff: this is how the globalists operate, outside any of the rules a locally based company has to operate from.

The company I work for recently had a potential new customer in Italy cancel their order (cleaning products) because we're a US company with no physical presence in the EU. As the importer of a product manufactured outside the EU, the customer would have been responsible for ensuring that any hazardous chemicals they were bringing into the EU in excess of 1 tonne per year were properly registered under REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). As far as I know, the status of the UK with regards to REACH and other European Chemical Agency regulations is still up in the air, so there could be a significant impact on the chemical industry in the UK.
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Old 4th December 2018, 12:18 PM   #558
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by The Moog View Post
That's a very optimistic forecast. Where did you get this from?
Recessions suck. Bad things happen to people. If you care about such things it is quite cruel to inflict on people.
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Old 4th December 2018, 12:40 PM   #559
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
The company I work for recently had a potential new customer in Italy cancel their order (cleaning products) because we're a US company with no physical presence in the EU. As the importer of a product manufactured outside the EU, the customer would have been responsible for ensuring that any hazardous chemicals they were bringing into the EU in excess of 1 tonne per year were properly registered under REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). As far as I know, the status of the UK with regards to REACH and other European Chemical Agency regulations is still up in the air, so there could be a significant impact on the chemical industry in the UK.
Taking back control it totally worth ending all those pesky exports. British goods for british people! That is the whole problem, you think that british people should engage in some activity as lowly as trade! That is for the little people after all.
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Old 4th December 2018, 01:33 PM   #560
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And TM seems to be losing more than Fulham tonight. Grieve amendment passed with a sizeable margin. Makes stumbling into no-deal less likely.
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