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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:23 AM   #321
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Someone seems to have jumped the gun., the legislation is very clear that at the moment we leave the EU on 29th March.
They will have to pass legislation ('a special instrument') pretty sharpish in parliament to amend it to 12 April in line with the EU edict.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:24 AM   #322
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Speaking of failure. What's the latest on Farage's 'Trail if Jeers', anyone left?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:26 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Theresa May’s career is over and her party is probably finished too. She might as well throw herself on the grenade.
She has. She said she is going to present the same deal again and she will not be asking for any further extension. As Lord Adonis remarked - who will be persuading the House of Lords to revoke Art 50 - 'She has just talked herself out of a job'.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:28 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
It's worse than that, she called a General Election after triggering Article 50. On top of that, Brexit didn't even feature much as a topic of debate during the campaign.
It left her with a minority government and it has struggled ever since to pass anything.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:30 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
EU agreed extension to 22nd May if MPs agree next week to PM May's deal. Otherwise extension to 12th April to come up with something else.

The EU want May's deal because of all the options at the moment it is the best deal for them. No deal is bad and the EU do not want the UK to get more time to try and negotiate a deal that is better for the UK as, obviously, the EU wants it to be worse not being in the EU than being in the EU.
The EU want May's deal because it dictated it to her.

Note she rants about UK MP's but no word of criticism about the EU.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:31 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The petition is currently at 2.6 million, it grew by 2 million in 24 hours. At this rate it's believable the Parliament will be facing five million signatures next week.
You can't ignore this and rant about "will of the people". You have to choose, it's one or the other.

McHrozni
Unfortunately for Remoaners like me, the will of the people applied on exactly one day only.

A narrow majority for a poorly defined outcome is somehow inviolable
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:32 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
it's not negotiating that the UK is doing - it's holding its breath until it gets another sweetie.
Why do 27 other countries have to give in, when they have nothing to gain?
To show magnanimity. Also, the Dutch government says it is set to lose €'ms at its ports if the UK crashes out.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:34 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The UK ruling class is more used to bullying that negotiating to their their way. The UK had already extracted numerous concessions for being in the EU, such as the rebate, not in Schengen, not in the Euro etc etc.

The MPs are now learning the hard way that they cannot bully any more and May's deal is crap because we cannot bully benefits for UK any more.

The rest of the MPs are deluded to think that they can do any better, especially when they cannot agree a consensus.

If we do leave with no deal, we then have to negotiate a new deal (a point missed by many) which we will likely loose as our position is going to be far weaker than the EU's.
True. The UK seems to have very much had a Basil Fawlty-type attitude towards the EU.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:36 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The longer the negotiations go on for, the weaker the UK becomes, as the present splits will worsen as the Independent Group grows larger and the Tories and Labour fracture. Pressure will also grow on tired MPs to get on with other business.

The present petition to scrap brexit, which is not being matched by one to keep going and the farce that was Farages march for brexit, shows support for leaving is draining away rapidly.

Cancelling brexit is the lifeboat presently floating past Parliament.
What is needed are the 'men in grey suits' to turn up at no. 10 Downing Street, cart off May Thatcher-style, and put in place a proper leadership to take control of the runaway cart, all wheels flying off.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:37 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
One of the Tory politicians said yesterday when the signatures were under a million that they would only pay attention to it after there were 17.4m signatures.



The point is to provide a counter-narrative to the "will of the people".
That was the idiot Leadsom.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:38 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
To show magnanimity. Also, the Dutch government says it is set to lose €'ms at its ports if the UK crashes out.
It was magnanimous to negotiate with the UK at all, given that it didn't have a plan with a political majority in the first place.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:40 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Speaking of failure. What's the latest on Farage's 'Trail if Jeers', anyone left?
Against all expectations it has become a national cause célèbre with numbers and support swelling exponentially. It's like the Jarrow March all over again except better organised and with far greater numbers.

Yesterday the number of marchers grew to over 3 million demonstrating that Brexit, and especially a no deal Brexit has far more support than Remain which has managed only to get a paltry 2 million or so signatures on an online petition.

The enthusiasm of the support and the sheer numbers involved means that Nigel Farage's march is the single largest public movement the country has ever known.

It's expected that the numbers will grow to well over 10 million by the time that the march reaches the capital demonstrating once and for all the enthusiasm that the UK population have for Brexit and for their natural leader, Nigel Farage.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:43 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Against all expectations it has become a national cause célèbre with numbers and support swelling exponentially. It's like the Jarrow March all over again except better organised and with far greater numbers.

Yesterday the number of marchers grew to over 3 million demonstrating that Brexit, and especially a no deal Brexit has far more support than Remain which has managed only to get a paltry 2 million or so signatures on an online petition.

The enthusiasm of the support and the sheer numbers involved means that Nigel Farage's march is the single largest public movement the country has ever known.

It's expected that the numbers will grow to well over 10 million by the time that the march reaches the capital demonstrating once and for all the enthusiasm that the UK population have for Brexit and for their natural leader, Nigel Farage.
any links for that?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:43 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
What is needed are the 'men in grey suits' to turn up at no. 10 Downing Street, cart off May Thatcher-style, and put in place a proper leadership to take control of the runaway cart, all wheels flying off.
Instead, what we're likely to get is one or more of BoJo, Gove and JRM driving up in their clown car and ensuring that the cart flies off the cliff.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:45 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A narrow majority for a poorly defined outcome is somehow inviolable
This is the thing that I've found the most confusing. There are politicians who are of the opinion that we should leave. Them I understand pushing for it. But May was a Remainer or, at least, flexible enough on the issue that she advocated for remaining. So why is she so gung-ho now? Is it simply that she thought that was the way that the political winds were blowing and now she's backed herself into a position that she can't climb down from?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:45 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
any links for that?
How dare you even ask. You're just part of Project Fear.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:46 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
That was the idiot Leadsom.
That's right. Thanks.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:48 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
any links for that?
Sure, here you go.

It's a spectacular demonstration of the UK's enthusiasm for Brexit - one for the ages.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8831551.html

Quote:
Most people here feel they are making history, that they are taking part in something which will be talked about, glowingly, for centuries to come

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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:54 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Unfortunately for Remoaners like me, the will of the people applied on exactly one day only.

A narrow majority for a poorly defined outcome is somehow inviolable
The petition to revoke article 50 is at 2.9 million now. Previous record was 1.6 million.

Plenty of MPs probably agree with the petition, there may well be 4-5 million by the time Parliament sits again next week. This is quite strong incentive to listen to it, I think. Parliament doesn't need to revoke article 50, it needs to do something and that something might be a referendum. These signatures can but help.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:57 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Liked this. For those unfamiliar with the works of the great Bernard Cribbens this is the the tune it's set to:
I'd like to share this if I may. Did you write it? Brilliant.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:00 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
This is the thing that I've found the most confusing. There are politicians who are of the opinion that we should leave. Them I understand pushing for it. But May was a Remainer or, at least, flexible enough on the issue that she advocated for remaining. So why is she so gung-ho now? Is it simply that she thought that was the way that the political winds were blowing and now she's backed herself into a position that she can't climb down from?
A number of factors:
  • The Conservative membership now overwhelmingly support Brexit, even a no-deal Brexit so Theresa May is playing to her party
  • Apparently a significant majority of constituencies voted to leave - this apparently means that their MP must support leave otherwise they won't be reelected
  • Her (and to be fair the Labour) manifesto was very clear about Brexit. She promised Brexit, she didn't necessarily promise a functioning UK economy afterwards
  • Politics has fundamentally changed. In the past, leaders had ideas and attempted to convince/cajole/bully the public into supporting them. These days it's more a case of pandering to public opinion.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:14 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The petition to revoke article 50 is at 2.9 million now. Previous record was 1.6 million.

Plenty of MPs probably agree with the petition, there may well be 4-5 million by the time Parliament sits again next week. This is quite strong incentive to listen to it, I think. Parliament doesn't need to revoke article 50, it needs to do something and that something might be a referendum. These signatures can but help.

McHrozni
I agree that parliament needs to do something but with both of the major parties being pro-Brexit and anti second referendum, I'm not optimistic that it'll be anything that Remain supporters will look positively at.

The Conservatives with the DUP have a working majority and Conservative supporters firmly support a no-deal Brexit. Even those who are not pro no-deal would still prefer a no-deal to no-Brexit.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:15 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Merkel has spoken this morning and said that a short delay would be possible ONLY IF the deal is accepted before the 29th (which apparently is impossible). If not, it's no deal bye bye and she asked the 27 remaining members to concentrate on the future after Brexit.
Sensible and expected.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:15 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
We're still leaving on the 29th unless parliament agrees to the terms of the delay......
Do wish people would keep this in mind. It's way the likes of Mogg are quiet at the moment, they are obviously hoping we will leave it too late to change the date via a statutory instrument and we leave the EU as the law has it a week today.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:16 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Theresa May’s career is over and her party is probably finished too. She might as well throw herself on the grenade.
How? She can't be ousted as leader of the party.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:16 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I disagree. Corbyn's reasons for supporting Brexit are more sound than the Tories (xenophobia). He is right. The free movement of workers has driven down wages for the UK population. It is a low-income credit driven economy.
Much of this id down to elevated expectations and unwillingness of the UK populace (and government) to accept and adapt to new styles of work.
The 'job for life' is dead. Accept this fact and move on.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:16 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I agree that parliament needs to do something but with both of the major parties being pro-Brexit and anti second referendum, I'm not optimistic that it'll be anything that Remain supporters will look positively at.

The Conservatives with the DUP have a working majority and Conservative supporters firmly support a no-deal Brexit. Even those who are not pro no-deal would still prefer a no-deal to no-Brexit.
Parliament voted approximately 400-200 to reject a no-deal under any circumstance. I'm sure the MPs can agree to pin the blame squarely on Theresa May as they head into the next election or something like that.

Not that a new General Election would solve anything, short of a miracle.

There is one other thing Parliament can vote for: reopening of negotiations, opting for a new strategy and a new, different deal. Expect it to be worse than this one, but Parliament can pretend it was all due to the sheer incompetence of the British government and negotiators. There is a solid case to be made for than anyway.

Different deals are possible. UK just needs to let go of one or more red lines. It needs to accept either no free trade policy or a customs border in Irish sea, if it does that different deals are indeed possible. DUP will oppose, but DUP is only necessary at this moment in time.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:20 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
I'd like to share this if I may. Did you write it? Brilliant.
I also think it's worth sharing.

And possibly recording. Probably by someone with more talent than I, however.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:20 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
any links for that?

Try the Indy:

Quote:
Anna Soubry butted in and asked Farage:

How's the march going Nigel?

This is an obvious reference to the disastrous 'March to Leave' which saw a smattering of Brexiteers set off from Sunderland on Saturday on a 14 day walk to London in protest of Brexit being delayed.

The stunt was widely mocked on social media with Farage taking the brunt of the gags as he only showed up for about an hour of the walk and let the rest of them get on with it without him.

Not wishing to have the march dragged through the mud any longer, Farage shot back and told Soubry that it was going "very well indeed."

Soubry came back again and mocked the number of people that showed up for his march:

Have you got more than 150 people yet? How many people have you employed to go on your march?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:22 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Parliament voted approximately 400-200 to reject a no-deal under any circumstance. I'm sure the MPs can agree to pin the blame squarely on Theresa May as they head into the next election or something like that.

Not that a new General Election would solve anything, short of a miracle.

McHrozni
The vote was a lot closer than that, it was 312-308 on a backbench amendment to rule out no-deal and in any case, the vote is non-binding:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...jority-of-four
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:25 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The vote was a lot closer than that, it was 312-308 on a backbench amendment to rule out no-deal and in any case, the vote is non-binding:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...jority-of-four
Ah right, I mixed those votes up. The number I was reffering to was 43 votes, 321-278. The majority you cite was just for the amendment, Parliament denied a no deal by four votes.

The vote was despite a three-lined whip by the government to vote no though. That too means something.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:27 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The "immigration drives down wages" mantra is a well-worn one, but one that doesn't seem to have the level of support in the economy at large as individual anecdotes like yours would seem to suggest.
Exactly this particular Big Lie is commonly adhered to, whelter from ignorance or xenophobia, but utterly refused by actual facts (like the none UKGov studies).

The oft-condemned 2004 Blair liberalisation was absolutely needed due to the ageing and declining population of UK-born workers. And it's not getting any better; in the last decade the UK 16-64 workforce has declined by over half-a-million and the total workforce has expanded by more than four times this.
During this period more UK-born workers have entered part-time or self-employment, leading to the ignorant/ideological to embrace the "they're taking our jobs" refrain, but this is complete nonsense. Multiple UKGov studies actually showed that migrants rarely supplanted UK-born workers, instead entering expanding industries where there were simply not enough people to do the jobs or UK-born workers willing to do them.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....so while Jeremy Corbyn may claim that his desire to keep foreigners out is driven by a desire to keep British wages high, the core of it is still a mistrust of foreigners.
The Labour aligned working classes have never been free of xenophobia, right back to Sidney Street and it's aftermath.
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:27 AM   #353
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Everywhere seems to be reporting that Brexit is delayed now...but don't see anything that says the Government is bringing something to Parliament to make that happen. Or any date for MV3, or whether it will even be allowed to happen.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:28 AM   #354
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There is one other thing Parliament can vote for: reopening of negotiations, opting for a new strategy and a new, different deal. Expect it to be worse than this one, but Parliament can pretend it was all due to the sheer incompetence of the British government and negotiators. There is a solid case to be made for than anyway.
That presupposes that the EU would be willing to start again from scratch.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Different deals are possible. UK just needs to let go of one or more red lines. It needs to accept either no free trade policy or a customs border in Irish sea, if it does that different deals are indeed possible. DUP will oppose, but DUP is only necessary at this moment in time.

McHrozni
It's not just the DUP who are fundamentally opposed to a customs border in the Irish sea, it's the vast majority of the Conservative party too.

In any case, even if there were a general election, both major parties would campaign on a Brexit platform so there'd be no change there. As a Remain voter I'd have to choose between two Brexit parties, or a party that has no chance of being a significant presence in government.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:31 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Everywhere seems to be reporting that Brexit is delayed now...but don't see anything that says the Government is bringing something to Parliament to make that happen. Or any date for MV3, or whether it will even be allowed to happen.
Exactly !

Darat has mentioned this repeatedly. I can see Theresa May holding MV3. If it passes she'll ask parliament for an extension. If it fails (or the vote never happens) then she'll allow the UK to crash out with a no-deal (an acceptable second prize from her perspective).
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:31 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Much of this id down to elevated expectations and unwillingness of the UK populace (and government) to accept and adapt to new styles of work.
The 'job for life' is dead. Accept this fact and move on.
So your boss puts you on a zero-hours contract. You find yourself kicking your heels at home. You work very few hours so you go down to the Benefits office. They put you on Universal Credit. Five weeks later you have a few coins in your pocket for food, the bills are mounting up, interest is accruing on your credit card at an alarming rate because of you can only make 'minumum payment' you are still waiting for your Univefrsal Credit benefit to come through.

In the meantime you discover your boss has taken on a Romanian worker paying him a fraction of what you were being paid, as in Romania, average monthly wage is £200, so he is ecstatic to be now earning £600 pcm.

Does the government or the EU care? No sirree. The EU was a capitalist idea.

Employers love the idea of cheaper labour and raw materials.

Enter the Labour party and trade unions.

It takes someone like Jeremy Corbyn to stand up to the stripping away of workers rights (and that includes all of you who like to consider yourselves middle class or professional class).

No wonder the Tory press hates him and defames him at every opportunity.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:34 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I know they didn't. But the country voted to **** them over.
The issue of expatriate voting is an interesting one and linked to the question of contribution to and involvement in society as much as anything else.
Does someone really deserve the right to vote in a country when they're no-longer contributing to it (via taxation) or involved with it on a day-to-day basis, merely because they're citizens.
Perhaps a limited franchise, parliamentary elections and referenda only?

I'd also point out that UK citizens living outside the UK only lose their franchise after fifteen years, if they were registered to vote before leaving.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:36 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I heard a certain David Davies in an interview a day or 2 ago. And he mentioned that much of the problems were caused by the UK government not being tough enough at the start of the negotiations.

My mouth has still not closed.


For non-UK folk, David Davies was put in charge of the negotiations at the start....
He probably expects most people to have forgotten this point.
He may have forgotten himself...

ETA: Oopsie wrong right-wing idiot.
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Last edited by catsmate; 22nd March 2019 at 04:38 AM.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:36 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post

It takes someone like Jeremy Corbyn to stand up to the stripping away of workers rights
By supporting and enabling the Tory Brexit that will set fire to the workers protections provided by the EU.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:36 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That presupposes that the EU would be willing to start again from scratch.
I think it would. Expect it to present preconditions that would make any thus achieved deal inferior to this one.

Quote:
It's not just the DUP who are fundamentally opposed to a customs border in the Irish sea, it's the vast majority of the Conservative party too.
I would be too in their shoes, for obvious reasons. The other red line that can be sacrificed is an independent trade policy.

You know, to be like Norway.

Wouldn't it be terrible if we were like Norway and Switzerland?" Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self governing.
--Nigel Farage, 2013

My point is this deal is not the only possible deal. It's the only deal that can be done with British red lines.

Quote:
In any case, even if there were a general election, both major parties would campaign on a Brexit platform so there'd be no change there. As a Remain voter I'd have to choose between two Brexit parties, or a party that has no chance of being a significant presence in government.
Yes. But a new general election would mean a new government, a new PM and, perhaps, a different Brexit platform and strategy. There are sensible approaches still: accept a deal that makes UK spayed and neutered both (Norway option), with a clause that allows UK to move out of single market and/or customs union, pending a few conditions. Most conditions would be regarding the Irish border, for obvious reasons. Allow for a plan that takes UK out of EU first, then progress further to single market and customs union and other institutions, slowly excising the country out. You can't upend 40 years of integration in two years and not break all the eggs, leaving the EU would be a process taking 20 years or more by necessity.

Of course should the electorate wise up in the meantime that too must be taken into account.

That's the proper, democratic way to go about Brexit. If there is a new election maybe the new government will use it. They can always blame Theresa May for putting them in this situation in the first place.

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