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Tags republican party , Texas politics , Will Hurd

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Old 2nd August 2019, 06:45 AM   #1
Solitaire
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Republican Retirements

I just heard that Will Hurd, the only black Republican in Washington, was retiring.

Does this signify a big change in party composition?
Or am I getting fooled again by ordinary political maneuvering?
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Old 2nd August 2019, 06:55 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Solitaire View Post
I just heard that Will Hurd, the only black Republican in Washington, was retiring.

Does this signify a big change in party composition?
Or am I getting fooled again by ordinary political maneuvering?
Ben Carson is Republican still, and he's in the administration!

Is Hurd the one that was on the committee that interviewed Mueller?
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Old 2nd August 2019, 07:01 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Solitaire View Post
I just heard that Will Hurd, the only black Republican in Washington, was retiring.

Does this signify a big change in party composition?
Or am I getting fooled again by ordinary political maneuvering?
In addition to Carson, there's a black Republican in the Senate. But Hurd was the only black Republican in the House, a pretty big body.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 07:29 AM   #4
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From Texas, no less.

Actually, that's not fair, I spent a year in Texas and it is not as monolithic as it appears. Close, but not quite. Hurd's district especially so.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 07:43 AM   #5
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There's going to be more retirements, as lifelong Republicans up for reelection choose to slink into the night rather than be confronted with the consequences of their actions. I wish them many healthy years to dwell on their cowardice.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 07:45 AM   #6
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He's really young, had a distinguished career in the intelligence community, and is from a fairly purple district. Even if he wasn't mixed race, he'd have been a really great face for the GOP. This has got to hurt their outlook for 2020.

He could have been one of the "reasonable Republicans" that allegedly exist. He's probably going to come back in 2024 or later, hoping people forget how the GOP sold out to a foreign asset while he was a member.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 08:03 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
He's really young, had a distinguished career in the intelligence community, and is from a fairly purple district. Even if he wasn't mixed race, he'd have been a really great face for the GOP. This has got to hurt their outlook for 2020.

He could have been one of the "reasonable Republicans" that allegedly exist. He's probably going to come back in 2024 or later, hoping people forget how the GOP sold out to a foreign asset while he was a member.
He might not come back as a Republican either. Moderate or fiscal Democrat can maybe exist in Texas.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 08:20 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
From Texas, no less.

Actually, that's not fair, I spent a year in Texas and it is not as monolithic as it appears. Close, but not quite. Hurd's district especially so.
I did a project in Juarez and staid in El Paso years ago. The rest of the state and West Texas may as well be two different countries let alone different states.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 08:46 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
He might not come back as a Republican either. Moderate or fiscal Democrat can maybe exist in Texas.
No, by his voting record, he is a tow the line Republican.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 08:58 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
I did a project in Juarez and staid in El Paso years ago. The rest of the state and West Texas may as well be two different countries let alone different states.
Also southern Texas, and central Texas. North and east Texas though... yeah.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 09:00 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
No, by his voting record, he is a tow the line Republican.
But if he's retiring I'd assume it's because he sees something wrong within his party.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 09:05 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
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No, by his voting record, he is a tow the line Republican.
But if he's retiring I'd assume it's because he sees something wrong within his party.
I guess it depends on what you mean as 'seeing something wrong'.

Does 'seeing something wrong' mean "the republican party has significant problems with its members acting in illegal/immoral ways, and not representing the interests of the people".

Or does 'seeing something wrong' mean "Nothing wrong with what I'm doing... but what we're doing will be politically unpopular".
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Old 2nd August 2019, 09:07 AM   #13
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I don't like it per se, but in general I won't demonize someone if they just realize one day that they've been on the wrong side of things but... either their self or the world has moved on so much they can't rewrite their base personalities to be on the good side and just decide to... step back.

At least not being an active participant in making things worse is something. It's not everything, hell it's not even a lot, but it's something.

If one day it just hits you that you're the "bad" guy... just not being the bad guy anymore is something. Working to fix the bad would be better, obviously, but just not making it worse anymore is something.

//Caveat// Obviously this is all speaking to general level politics and not like actual criminal actions or whatnot and of realizing you were part of some sort of system, not things you personally and directly did wrong.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 10:01 AM   #14
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He seemed rather reasonable for a Congressman from Texas.

I got the impression that he was openly critical of Trump and his border shenanigans. I don't think Trump carried his district and I wouldn't be surprised if he was facing a primary challenger. Not a great place to be if you have other options.

Good news? If the GOP puts up a full on Trumpy they may actually lose the district.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:14 AM   #15
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In an exit interview of sorts with Robert Moore of The Washington Post on Thursday, Hurd referenced Trump’s outright racist tweets that four minority congresswomen should “go back” to their homes. It’s possible he was considering retirement before this, but you don’t have to read too much between the lines to understand this was the situation that helped push him out the door.

“When you imply that because someone doesn’t look like you, in telling them to go back to Africa or wherever, you’re implying that they’re not an American, and you’re implying that they have less worth than you,” Hurd said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.5576f44d7e0a
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:24 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Jungle Jim View Post
In an exit interview of sorts with Robert Moore of The Washington Post on Thursday, Hurd referenced Trump’s outright racist tweets that four minority congresswomen should “go back” to their homes. It’s possible he was considering retirement before this, but you don’t have to read too much between the lines to understand this was the situation that helped push him out the door.
It must have been quite a shock to him that the party that regularly works to suppress the votes of minorities and engages in gerrymandering to limit their political influence has a problem with racism.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:32 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
It must have been quite a shock to him that the party that regularly works to suppress the votes of minorities and engages in gerrymandering to limit their political influence has a problem with racism.
Mind. Blown.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:36 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
But if he's retiring I'd assume it's because he sees something wrong within his party.
Though I'd prefer to see courage, what I suspect is he didn't want the ************* of hate that would come his way in a primary if he continued to criticize Trump.

Politicians are afraid of certain Trump supporters and it's not hard for me to see why.

But resigning in protest always seems like kind of a futile act to me. I keep wondering what the reasonable conservatives who have put themselves out to pasture are doing to change the party, or if they just decided they don't want to play anymore.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:38 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Though I'd prefer to see courage, what I suspect is he didn't want the ************* of hate that would come his way in a primary if he continued to criticize Trump.

Politicians are afraid of certain Trump supporters and it's not hard for me to see why.

But resigning in protest always seems like kind of a futile act to me. I keep wondering what the reasonable conservatives who have put themselves out to pasture are doing to change the party, or if they just decided they don't want to play anymore.
If the game comes with death threats against ones family, I can see not wanting to play.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 11:58 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Though I'd prefer to see courage, what I suspect is he didn't want the ************* of hate that would come his way in a primary if he continued to criticize Trump.

Politicians are afraid of certain Trump supporters and it's not hard for me to see why.

But resigning in protest always seems like kind of a futile act to me. I keep wondering what the reasonable conservatives who have put themselves out to pasture are doing to change the party, or if they just decided they don't want to play anymore.
I actually don't have much against the "good" conservatives dropping out of the party and congress all together. As has been stated in the other thread, the Republican Party can really not be saved at this point. No one in the party has the balls to actually save it. Best case scenario is the party fractures, none of them hold any real power until a 3rd party shows up that goes back to the center a lot more and sticks to the old conservative ideas.
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Old 26th August 2019, 09:37 AM   #21
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Another one going toodles:

Quote:
Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) will resign from Congress at the end of September, the most recent in a string of Republicans who have decided against running for re-election.
His district is fairly solidly Republican, so I doubt it will flip. He has a child that is going to have special needs.
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Old 28th August 2019, 10:11 AM   #22
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And another gone...

Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson to resign at end of year:

Quote:
Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson announced on Wednesday that he will resign at the end of the year, citing health concerns
He has Parkinson's, fell and broke 4 ribs, and had surgery recently. I don't this this is politically motivated, I feel badish for him.
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Old 28th August 2019, 10:34 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
And another gone...

Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson to resign at end of year:



He has Parkinson's, fell and broke 4 ribs, and had surgery recently. I don't this this is politically motivated, I feel badish for him.
No doubt he will have good healthcare provisions. Of course, he voted against Obamacare.

https://www.isakson.senate.gov/publi...fm/health-care
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Old 28th August 2019, 12:23 PM   #24
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What's that old saying about Rats abandoning a sinking ship?
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Old 28th August 2019, 12:27 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
What's that old saying about Rats abandoning a sinking ship?
"They just give up and swim off! Losers! So sad!"

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Old 4th September 2019, 10:03 AM   #26
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Add another one to the list for a total of 5 from Texas alone, sad.:

Quote:
GOP Rep. Bill Flores announced Wednesday his plans to retire from Congress at the end of his term, becoming the fifth Texas Republican to do so this election cycle.

Flores won his first election in 2010 by defeating a Democrat during President Barack Obama's first midterm election and rose to become a chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee.
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Old 4th September 2019, 10:22 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I actually don't have much against the "good" conservatives dropping out of the party and congress all together. As has been stated in the other thread, the Republican Party can really not be saved at this point. No one in the party has the balls to actually save it. Best case scenario is the party fractures, none of them hold any real power until a 3rd party shows up that goes back to the center a lot more and sticks to the old conservative ideas.
Keep in mind that those 'good' conservatives dropping out of congress served under the republican banner for years, while the party regularly gerrymandered political districts and suppressed minority votes. Most of them voted for the Obamacare repeal and the deficit-expanding tax cuts. And almost all republican senators voted in favor of putting Drunky McRapeface and and Neil "I'm glad Kavanaugh is around so I don't look as scummy" Gorsuch on the supreme court.

Any 'good' republican would not be dropping not now.... they would have left the party years ago.
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Old 4th September 2019, 10:48 AM   #28
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Is there any good analysis out there about these retirements? Is the assumption that these GOP congressional members aren't confident they can retain their seats? Do they fear a Democratic win, or a primary challenger from the right?
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Old 4th September 2019, 10:59 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Is there any good analysis out there about these retirements? Is the assumption that these GOP congressional members aren't confident they can retain their seats? Do they fear a Democratic win, or a primary challenger from the right?
Or even just how statistically significant all these resignations are.

After all, there are hundreds of congress critters in Washington. You have to expect a few to resign in any given election cycle. How far above the normal is this for the 2020 election?
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Old 4th September 2019, 11:29 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Is there any good analysis out there about these retirements? Is the assumption that these GOP congressional members aren't confident they can retain their seats? Do they fear a Democratic win, or a primary challenger from the right?
There's an article by 538 that discusses it with several different people. A few tidbits:

Quote:
geoffrey.skelley: But one thing to keep in mind with the seeming glut of Texas retirements is that Texas has one of the earliest candidate filing deadlines of any state — December 2019 — because of its March 2020 primary. So if Texas members want to retire, they probably want to do it as early as possible to give their parties enough of a heads-up to find new candidates and get organized for an open-seat race.
Quote:
nrakich: One interesting pattern in the eight House GOP retirements is that three of the retirees are from Texas — the most of any state. Obviously, there’s been a lot of buzz about Democrats breaking through there electorally, so maybe this is a sign that Texas Republicans think that is a real threat.

And two of those retirees sit in vulnerable seats — Pete Olson (in Texas’s 22nd District) and Hurd (in Texas’s 23rd District).
It's a really, really long article.
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Old 4th September 2019, 11:59 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
There's an article by 538 that discusses it with several different people. A few tidbits:
nrakich: One interesting pattern in the eight House GOP retirements is that three of the retirees are from Texas — the most of any state. Obviously, there’s been a lot of buzz about Democrats breaking through there electorally, so maybe this is a sign that Texas Republicans think that is a real threat.

It's a really, really long article.
The article mentions another issue: Even without further Democratic breakthroughs in the house, the republicans will still probably be in a minority position after 2020. Being in the minority party in congress can be boring, with little influence. Some GOP congress critters may not be leaving because they fear losing their own seat, but they think they will win and then have to contend with having little power for the next 2 years.
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Old 4th September 2019, 04:44 PM   #32
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What a bunch of cowards. Stay and save your party. Fight the fight that needs fighting. Resigning just clears the way for more Trump traitors who won't be loyal to the nation. The country needs all loyal Americans just now to push back the tide of Trump and treason.
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Old 4th September 2019, 05:39 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
The article mentions another issue: Even without further Democratic breakthroughs in the house, the republicans will still probably be in a minority position after 2020. Being in the minority party in congress can be boring, with little influence. Some GOP congress critters may not be leaving because they fear losing their own seat, but they think they will win and then have to contend with having little power for the next 2 years.
Or they've got lucrative lobbyist jobs lined up.
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Old 5th September 2019, 05:22 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
The article mentions another issue: Even without further Democratic breakthroughs in the house, the republicans will still probably be in a minority position after 2020. Being in the minority party in congress can be boring, with little influence. Some GOP congress critters may not be leaving because they fear losing their own seat, but they think they will win and then have to contend with having little power for the next 2 years.
I'd argue the opposite is true. It's much easier to be a house member if you aren't in power. Governing is hard, but backseat driving while out of power is easy. Just grandstand a bunch and get huffy when the vote goes against you.

It's like the whole repeal Obamacare thing. All those years of talking a big game about repealing the ACA, when the Republicans finally get into a position to do so, they choke. Turns out, details matter. Actually having power is much trickier than being a powerless demagogue.
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Old 5th September 2019, 05:37 AM   #35
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The Republicans are in a minority position now and that doesn't seem to stop them.

They are just better at getting people in key positions and rigging the system so them being the minority doesn't matter.
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Old 6th September 2019, 10:33 AM   #36
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I've lost track, but it appears I've missed one:

Quote:
Veteran Wisconsin Republican Representative Jim Sensenbrenner announced his retirement from Congress on Wednesday, making the former House Judiciary Committee chairman the 15th GOP lawmaker to say he will step aside before next year's elections.
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Old 6th September 2019, 11:11 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
What a bunch of cowards. Stay and save your party. Fight the fight that needs fighting. Resigning just clears the way for more Trump traitors who won't be loyal to the nation. The country needs all loyal Americans just now to push back the tide of Trump and treason.


And the highlighted bit is why we should want these guys to retire. Incumbent candidates win re-election at a simply ridiculously high rate. For the US House, it's literally never been below about 85% in my entire life, and it's often higher than that. The US Senate used to have a higher turn-over rate, but since 1988, it's been 80% or more pretty much every election. Retirement is often the only time many such seat will change parties. And that change will only be more likely if the new candidate is a full-on Kool-Aide drinking Trumpkin.
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Old 6th September 2019, 05:58 PM   #38
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No it's not. It's good for the nation for there to be two parties both loyal to our basic principals but always contesting for power. Now we have one party loyal to the nation, most of one party that is not and the dissenters of that part throwing up their hands and going home. As long as both parties are fundamentally loyal to the country it's good that they keep in contest. Right now, the only vote that is not treason is a vote for a democrat. That's not a healthy place for our great experiment to be in. When the choice is Democrat or treason, most of the electorate will choose Democrat. That's a road to one party rule. Our democracy is dependent on the quality of major party competition which can't happen when one party collapses.
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Old 6th September 2019, 06:56 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I'd argue the opposite is true. It's much easier to be a house member if you aren't in power. Governing is hard, but backseat driving while out of power is easy. Just grandstand a bunch and get huffy when the vote goes against you.

It's like the whole repeal Obamacare thing. All those years of talking a big game about repealing the ACA, when the Republicans finally get into a position to do so, they choke. Turns out, details matter. Actually having power is much trickier than being a powerless demagogue.
It's much, much easier to tear something down than it is to build it.
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Old 8th September 2019, 01:08 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
No it's not. It's good for the nation for there to be two parties both loyal to our basic principals but always contesting for power. Now we have one party loyal to the nation, most of one party that is not and the dissenters of that part throwing up their hands and going home. As long as both parties are fundamentally loyal to the country it's good that they keep in contest. Right now, the only vote that is not treason is a vote for a democrat. That's not a healthy place for our great experiment to be in. When the choice is Democrat or treason, most of the electorate will choose Democrat. That's a road to one party rule. Our democracy is dependent on the quality of major party competition which can't happen when one party collapses.
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
It's much, much easier to tear something down than it is to build it.

This quote also applies. I'm aware that having one entirely dysfunctional party is overall bad for the country. Unfortunately, I also can't see any way to fix the GOP without just burning it all down and starting over.

Sometimes an old building is so dilapidated, it takes far more time and effort to shore it up that to just demolish it and start over. That sucks for the people still living in it, who would like to just repair it, in hopes of it becoming what it once was. But just plastering over the major structural flaws never works. The Crazy Wing has taken over the GOP, and they won't willingly give up control to the non-crazy wing. I suppose we could have every registered Democrat sign up as a Republican instead, and vote in primaries en mass for the least-crazy candidate, but that's unlikely to happen. There are not enough non-crazy Republicans left to fix it by themselves.
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