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Tags 2019 elections , Dan Bishop , Dan McCready , North Carolina elections , North Carolina politics

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Old 10th September 2019, 06:39 PM   #1
Foolmewunz
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NC 9th - Last House Race of 2018

At this point, with many more votes left to come from the Democratic area in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte 'burbs), it looks like McCready (Dem) will take this red district.

The GOP in that area is rather creative, of course, (it's why we're having this special election) so they may pull twenty thousand votes out of their asses, but right now, it looks like another Democratic Party steal. The big GOP county, Union, has been counted and Bishop (R) holds a less-than-2000 vote lead, but with Mecklenburg only half-counted, McCready should pick up about a 5000 vote plurality.
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Old 10th September 2019, 06:43 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
At this point, with many more votes left to come from the Democratic area in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte 'burbs), it looks like McCready (Dem) will take this red district.

The GOP in that area is rather creative, of course, (it's why we're having this special election) so they may pull twenty thousand votes out of their asses, but right now, it looks like another Democratic Party steal. The big GOP county, Union, has been counted and Bishop (R) holds a less-than-2000 vote lead, but with Mecklenburg only half-counted, McCready should pick up about a 5000 vote plurality.
I don't know, it looks really tight to me. Do you have something more recent than this?


GOP
Bishop, Dan

80,927

50.47 %

Dem
McCready, Dan

78,468

48.94 %



78.6 % precincts reporting, but I know nothing of the political demographics of the remaining 21.4%.
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Old 10th September 2019, 06:53 PM   #3
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Sorry, meant to include a link:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...ecial-election
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Old 10th September 2019, 07:15 PM   #4
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They either misreported earlier or they're recounting some red districts. At the point I started the thread they showed all but one of the red counties as complete. Pro-rata, there weren't enough Bishop votes left to compensate for a big lead that the Dems would take in Charlotte. There was only a +1500 count in Bishop's favor.

Oh, well! This is why I'm not a panelist on CNN!

ETA: I don't know the precinct by precinct makeup. It's possible that there are red precincts in the blue counties and those were the missing votes in Mecklenburg, because the final count should've been closer. A whole lot of votes showed up from a solidly red county, too. Not claiming shenanigans. Explaining my miscalculation.
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Last edited by Foolmewunz; 10th September 2019 at 07:20 PM.
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Old 10th September 2019, 07:17 PM   #5
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Some pundits were saying that this NC race would be a bellwether for 2020. Trump was saying that it wouldn't matter.

I predict that if/when the Republican wins, Trump will say that this is a bellwether after all.
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Old 11th September 2019, 04:26 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Some pundits were saying that this NC race would be a bellwether for 2020. Trump was saying that it wouldn't matter.

I predict that if/when the Republican wins, Trump will say that this is a bellwether after all.
Trump took it by 12 points in 2016, he'll be lucky if he wins it by 2, so that "bellweather" is a 10 point swing against him.

Trump might spin it up and talk big, but inside, I'll bet he is crapping himself!
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:02 AM   #7
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Fox News is spinning it that Trump helped sweep the special elections in NC.
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:40 AM   #8
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Republicans: Openly and unapologetically cheat to the point that the entire election gets thrown out and redone.
Republicans: Win again, just by less.
Democrats: Well this is obviously a win for us.
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Old 11th September 2019, 08:40 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Some pundits were saying that this NC race would be a bellwether for 2020. Trump was saying that it wouldn't matter.

I predict that if/when the Republican wins, Trump will say that this is a bellwether after all.
Naah! Trump's too busy lining up minions to say Donnie Johnny carried the day! If that's the best they can do, flying in most of the administration at the 11th hour and winning by a half-point, then the Dems are right to be pleased by the results. This is a gerrymandered red district. Statewide if the Dems improve by 10% in North Carolina, you can move those electoral votes into the blue column.

Georgia GOPpers should get worried, too.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:29 AM   #10
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I think the takeaway is that the Dems couldn't turn out the vote to get rid of Trump.

The Dem politicians are much more angry at Trump than the general voter.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:39 AM   #11
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I think it's hard to make any firm conclusion about the general electorate from this special election. Some might want to read in bad news for Trump, being that a double digit margin Republican electorate came down to a very close election, but I'm not sure you can read it that way. The other circumstances, being a special election and the scandal of the election fraud by the prior candidate, are probably playing a big role that doesn't translate to a general election.

The Republicans are bragging about winning a close election in what should be a safe district by 10+ points. They aren't stupid, but it is probably better to brag about narrow victories than to publicly admit nervousness.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:40 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
I think the my takeaway is that the Dems couldn't turn out the vote to get rid of Trump.

The Dem politicians are much more angry at Trump than the general voter.
FTFY

In no way does this opinion reflect the consensus of the American public. This is a predominantly Republican district that has almost flipped. I have no doubts that things will change during the next vote.

I'm most excited to see what happens in Florida with those kids being voting age this next time around. It'll be the first time my daughter gets to vote too. The younger vote is starting to pop up here and there. I wouldn't be shocked if they play a much larger role .
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