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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 11th September 2019, 11:31 AM   #921
kellyb
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Speaking of healthcare, democratic candidates, and Biden:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eliza...wtRhqsl6KF6nws
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren Doubles Down On ‘Medicare For All’ In Interview With Dying Activist
“Medicare for All is about a relationship that all of us have to each other,” Warren told Ady Barkan.
Quote:
Democratic presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren delivered an impassioned explanation of her support for a “Medicare for All,” single-payer health care system in an interview with terminally ill progressive activist Ady Barkan.

The nine-minute video capturing Barkan’s discussion with Warren at his home in Santa Barbara, California, released on Tuesday, represents the Massachusetts senator’s frankest discussion to date of a subject matter that she has been more reticent about than other elements of her platform.
Quote:
Warren invoked Barkan’s predicament during her discussion of Medicare for All in the second Democratic presidential debate on July 30. She noted that though Barkan has excellent private insurance, he and his wife Rachael spend $9,000 a month out of their own pocket for services not covered by their insurance. (Barkan even had to fight his insurer to get it to pay for a breathing assistance machine.)

The video with Warren is part of a series of interviews about health care with Democratic presidential candidates that Barkan is conducting in conjunction with NowThis News and Crooked Media. Barkan, an ardent proponent of single-payer health care, earlier released footage of his conversations with Sens. Sanders, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kamala Harris of California.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and technology entrepreneur Andrew Yang are all in the process of scheduling interviews with Barkan. Former Vice President Joe Biden has not yet responded to an invitation to sit down with Barkan.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:21 PM   #922
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Here's a pretty long article on the disconnect between the geriatric Biden campaign, and the younger reporters covering it.

Quote:
The first thing you notice at a Joe Biden event is the age: Many of the reporters covering him are really young. Biden is not. The press corps, or so the Biden campaign sees it, is culturally liberal and highly attuned to modern issues around race and gender and social justice. Biden is not. The reporters are Extremely Online. Biden couldn’t tell you what TikTok is.
Gulp! What's TikTok?

Quote:
“I don't know of anybody who has taken as sustained and vitriolic a negative pounding as Biden and who has come through it with the strength he has,” said a top Biden adviser. “So why isn’t the argument not that he's a ‘fragile front runner,’ but instead why is this guy so strong? How is he able to withstand this? Because it is unrelenting. Every story that has been written about Biden for a month has been negative! I would ask Warren and Sanders and these folks: He’s been pummeled for months. For months! So why is he going to fall apart now?”
I do think it's quite likely that the reporters covering Biden right now are younger and more likely to be Warren or Sanders supporters. But they're also like sports reporters; they want a good race because it will draw attention to them. If Biden wins easily, they lose.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:28 PM   #923
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Here's a pretty long article on the disconnect between the geriatric Biden campaign, and the younger reporters covering it.







Gulp! What's TikTok?







I do think it's quite likely that the reporters covering Biden right now are younger and more likely to be Warren or Sanders supporters. But they're also like sports reporters; they want a good race because it will draw attention to them. If Biden wins easily, they lose.
Also the use of victim mode is so overused. They see he's gotten nothing but bad press. Let me wander over to the Our Revolution and Justice Democrats posts where they claim victim status and point out all the stories gushing with praise for Biden, but dismissive references to anyone else.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:33 PM   #924
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
So... if we can't talk about who's gonna vote for which candidate and which candidate is going to appeal to the most voters do we just... like list them off? Talk about their haircuts and shoes?
Talk about whatever you want. I'm not in charge, I'm just expressing an opinion.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:38 PM   #925
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Originally Posted by top Biden adviser
I would ask Warren and Sanders and these folks: He’s been pummeled for months. For months! So why is he going to fall apart now?”
Nobody thinks he's going to "fall apart".

Everyone thinks he's been on an overall downwards trajectory for months and has almost no chance of getting the 50%+ needed to outright win the nomination, which means we're probably going to be looking at a contested convention, where between Warren and Sanders, one will withdraw sometime after the first round at the latest, and their delegates go to...someone else/other people.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:46 PM   #926
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Nobody thinks he's going to "fall apart".
I do. I think he's literally falling apart. The eye thing was just the tip of the eyesberg. He'll continue to deteriorate physically and mentally, Skeksis-like, on television.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:53 PM   #927
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I do. I think he's literally falling apart. The eye thing was just the tip of the eyesberg. He'll continue to deteriorate physically and mentally, Skeksis-like, on television.
Well that's just great. Now I'm not going to be able to not see the debate stage as a Skeksis dinner party.
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Old 11th September 2019, 12:54 PM   #928
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Well that's just great. Now I'm not going to be able to not see the debate stage as a Skeksis dinner party.
It's probably not a bad metaphor for political wrangling in general.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:06 PM   #929
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Well that's just great. Now I'm not going to be able to not see the debate stage as a Skeksis dinner party.
Biden saw the Peeper Beetle!
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:16 PM   #930
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This is not a zero sum game. If we have 10 Democrats running for the office and one of them starts losing credibility, it doesn't always transfer to another Democrat, sometimes it's just gets lost.

I'd enjoying watching the Dems eat their own young.. errr old under different circumstances, but not now.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:27 PM   #931
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
This is not a zero sum game. If we have 10 Democrats running for the office and one of them starts losing credibility, it doesn't always transfer to another Democrat
When it comes to the primary contest for the nomination, it is a zero sum game.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:30 PM   #932
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
When it comes to the primary contest for the nomination, it is a zero sum game.
Only if you pretend the primary happens in a vacuum and what happens in it has zero effect on the main election.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:37 PM   #933
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Only if you pretend the primary happens in a vacuum and what happens in it has zero effect on the main election.
No, credibility during the primary is a zero sum game for the purposes of securing the nomination.

There's also a strong argument to be made that to whatever extent a candidate can be "discredited" during the primary, the Republicans will do the same thing times 10 during the general, so it's better that any and all weaknesses are exposed during the primary process and become "yesterday's news" by the time the general comes around.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:37 PM   #934
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Also the use of victim mode is so overused. They see he's gotten nothing but bad press. Let me wander over to the Our Revolution and Justice Democrats posts where they claim victim status and point out all the stories gushing with praise for Biden, but dismissive references to anyone else.
I don't think there's a politician alive who thinks they get the adoration from the media that they so richly deserve.
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Old 11th September 2019, 01:45 PM   #935
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
...which means we're probably going to be looking at a contested convention, where between Warren and Sanders, one will withdraw sometime after the first round at the latest, and their delegates go to...someone else/other people.
Logic and the similarity of their positions should mean the withdrawing party's votes go to the other.

Not that logic & politics sit together nicely.

It'd be great to see Bernie calling it quits and saying "Vote Liz!"
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Old 11th September 2019, 02:11 PM   #936
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Logic and the similarity of their positions should mean the withdrawing party's votes go to the other.

Not that logic & politics sit together nicely.

It'd be great to see Bernie calling it quits and saying "Vote Liz!"
It's really going to boil down to how the delegates are vetted by the state campaigns for Warren and Sanders, I think. Fingers crossed Bernie and Liz both have hyper-competent, legit progressive folks in charge of their state campaigns.

I'd love to hear Bernie calling it quits to endorse Liz, too.

It's worth remember that in 2015, Bernie:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ocrats/528696/
Quote:
A year before the first primary, he told Elizabeth Warren that he would cease his campaign preparations if she wanted to run. “He would have given her a clear lane,” one former Sanders adviser told me. But Warren demurred. She had only recently arrived in the Senate, and it wasn’t hard to imagine a fusillade of Clinton-campaign attacks, an opposition-research file disgorged, leaving her too damaged for future fights.
And more recently:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...en-2020-919825
Quote:
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Bernie Sanders says he speaks with Elizabeth Warren nearly every dayjust not about 2020.
Quote:
...with some progressive activists alarmed that they might split the vote, allowing a more moderate Democrat to win the nomination — Sanders suggested Friday that a pre-2020 discussion among like-minded potential candidates could be forthcoming.
Quote:
Asked whether he and other progressive contenders should hold talks in an effort to ensure one of them prevails, Sanders told POLITICO, “I suspect that in the coming weeks and months, there will be discussions.
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Old 11th September 2019, 02:41 PM   #937
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
It's really going to boil down to how the delegates are vetted by the state campaigns for Warren and Sanders, I think. Fingers crossed Bernie and Liz both have hyper-competent, legit progressive folks in charge of their state campaigns.
The first vote will not include superdelegates. If there's no majority on the first vote, then they get to weigh in.

If there's even 4 or 5 candidates with a handful of wins (or a strong 2nd place in caucuses), that means the only way a majority happens is by backroom deal (I'll give you my delegates for one of these 3 cabinet seats).

Given that the superdelegates will telegraph their preference, the likely outcome is people trading in to support that candidate before their leverage evaporates in the 2nd vote.
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Old 11th September 2019, 02:51 PM   #938
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
The first vote will not include superdelegates. If there's no majority on the first vote, then they get to weigh in.

If there's even 4 or 5 candidates with a handful of wins (or a strong 2nd place in caucuses), that means the only way a majority happens is by backroom deal (I'll give you my delegates for one of these 3 cabinet seats).

Given that the superdelegates will telegraph their preference, the likely outcome is people trading in to support that candidate before their leverage evaporates in the 2nd vote.
I wasn't even factoring in the superdelegates. I don't think they're all that likely to make a huge difference this time.

It's the "I'll give you my delegates" aspect where there's most room for chaos, as far as I can see. The delegates can't be given away like slaves. lol After the first round of voting, they can vote for whoever they want to. Candidate X could withdraw and tell their delegates to vote for candidate A, but the delegates could, in theory, decide to disregard that and vote for candidate B.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:39 PM   #939
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I wasn't even factoring in the superdelegates. I don't think they're all that likely to make a huge difference this time.



It's the "I'll give you my delegates" aspect where there's most room for chaos, as far as I can see. The delegates can't be given away like slaves. lol After the first round of voting, they can vote for whoever they want to. Candidate X could withdraw and tell their delegates to vote for candidate A, but the delegates could, in theory, decide to disregard that and vote for candidate B.



Unless I'm misunderstanding something.
Correct. The total result of the rules seems to be designed do get a conclusion before the first vote, which can then be spun as a "spontaneous concensus" of pragmatism and unity.

I don't think the superdelegates will ever vote, they are there to ensure they won't have to. Basically "get on board or get left behind."
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Old 11th September 2019, 04:15 PM   #940
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
This is not a zero sum game. If we have 10 Democrats running for the office and one of them starts losing credibility, it doesn't always transfer to another Democrat, sometimes it's just gets lost.

I'd enjoying watching the Dems eat their own young.. errr old under different circumstances, but not now.
This is a good point and one raised in the 538 podcast recently about what will go down at the debates. It is speculated that ultimately Harris may have paid a price for going against Biden too strongly as it ultimately looks bad for the party to have some fratricidal war.

That said, it may be in the interests of *some* of their candidates to take votes off Biden (in other words, maybe Harris might need to continue going after Biden and similarly Booker given that Biden seems to be the choice of black voters). And the podcast crew think that Biden is going to come under a lot of fire from those who want to be share out any vote that Biden loses.
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Old 11th September 2019, 09:44 PM   #941
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
If the mods move the past discussion there, yes. Otherwise, no. I've done what I can to talk sense to Cabbage. With some luck the conversation with Aridas will be more productive here.
Honestly, I think that it's a fair request and that this particular tangent is something of a derail for here. So... my response will be over there.

Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
No, credibility during the primary is a zero sum game for the purposes of securing the nomination.

There's also a strong argument to be made that to whatever extent a candidate can be "discredited" during the primary, the Republicans will do the same thing times 10 during the general, so it's better that any and all weaknesses are exposed during the primary process and become "yesterday's news" by the time the general comes around.
I think it may also be worth repeating that the Republicans (and their allies, foreign and domestic) are continually trying to push out hit pieces on all the viable Democratic candidates anyways already. The only real difference compared to the general election is that they'll be able to focus their attention on one person more. As it is, their main focus has pretty obviously been on hurting Biden, because he's the front-runner.

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Also the use of victim mode is so overused. They see he's gotten nothing but bad press. Let me wander over to the Our Revolution and Justice Democrats posts where they claim victim status and point out all the stories gushing with praise for Biden, but dismissive references to anyone else.
Going past that... if they're really trying to claim that he's getting nothing but bad press, I'd be tempted to remind them of... Trump, and how all that bad press totally hurt him so much in that Republican primary.

Yes, this situation is different in a number of important ways, but there are also distinct similarities.
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Old 12th September 2019, 12:20 PM   #942
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https://www.vox.com/2019/9/12/208609...e-warren-biden

Quote:
Elizabeth Warren leads Joe Biden in ranked-choice poll
The YouGov/FairVote poll let national Democratic voters rank several of their top candidates rather than picking just one.
Quote:
...under a “ranked-choice” system designed to suss out the majority’s ultimate preference, Sen. Elizabeth Warren would top Biden, 53 percent to 47 percent, according to a new poll exclusively provided in advance to Vox.
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Old 12th September 2019, 12:53 PM   #943
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So she's not only a competitive number of people's #1, but also enough other people's #2. That makes sense, given that she not only has apparently put out the most policy proposals to judge her by, and has a slight age advantage and the chromosomal advantage over the other two, but also has taken positions that generally put her somewhere between the other two (although closer to Bernie), so whichever other candidate you're starting from, you're closer to her than you are to the third one (the other guy).

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Old 12th September 2019, 12:54 PM   #944
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Well yeah and if we had a snowball's chance in hell of getting ranked voting on a nationwide scale in our lifetime, to say nothing of before November 2020, that would mean something.
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Old 12th September 2019, 01:09 PM   #945
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It does mean something in a process of whittling down from 3 to 1; it tells us how much support the remaining candidate(s) will get when one or two go.
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Old 12th September 2019, 01:38 PM   #946
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
It does mean something in a process of whittling down from 3 to 1; it tells us how much support the remaining candidate(s) will get when one or two go.
It also demonstrates where the broadest support lies.
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Old 12th September 2019, 01:47 PM   #947
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
So she's not only a competitive number of people's #1, but also enough other people's #2. .
And she's basically nobody's last choice (unlike both Biden and Sanders, who have they share of haters.)

Biden and Sanders have twice the "unfavorable" rate among Democrats as Warren does:

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/11/75957...Gxxj2yqWuVOyH0
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Old 12th September 2019, 01:55 PM   #948
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And from the dark side of campaigning (pun not intended) we have the bots and trolls stirring:

BOTS IN BLACKFACE – THE RISE OF FAKE BLACK PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA PROMOTING POLITICAL AGENDAS
Quote:
If you follow Donald Trump’s Twitter feed, you may have noticed several prominent accounts that appear to be profiles belonging to black people–high up on his Twitter feed of responses. Some of these accounts have thousands and thousands of followers. Others even have the blue Twitter check mark next to their account names. Yet, exactly who is behind these accounts is ambiguous. The rise of bots in the guise of black people on social media remains a worrisome issue heading into the 2020 elections.

Take for instance, the Twitter account @RyanHillMI, aka Ryan Hill. This account has a blue check mark which, supposedly, means it was vetted by Twitter and confirmed to be an actual person. Yet, a Google (or Bing) search on ‘Ryan Hill Michigan’ only yields results of a white, male lawyer in Michigan, and nothing about a young, black man in the Michigan area—which the @RyanHillMI’s avatar depicts.

I reached out to the Ryan Hill account on Twitter. I asked him (it?) about doing an interview and providing some background information. The conversation turned bizarre as you can see from the below screenshot (these are his remarks to my inquiries):
And just like in 2016:
Quote:
Mitchell says the activity behind these fake accounts boils down to “getting people not to vote for Democrats.” She points out that social media is the ultimate affordable platform for white supremacists.
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Old 12th September 2019, 02:21 PM   #949
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
And she's basically nobody's last choice (unlike both Biden and Sanders, who have they share of hates.)

Biden and Sanders have twice the "unfavorable" rate among Democrats as Warren does:

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/11/75957...Gxxj2yqWuVOyH0
In other words, when people say that being "centrist" or "moderate" is the winning position, Warren is what they're talking about. Biden is not; he's a right-winger.
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Old 12th September 2019, 03:18 PM   #950
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And from the dark side of campaigning (pun not intended) we have the bots and trolls stirring:

BOTS IN BLACKFACE – THE RISE OF FAKE BLACK PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA PROMOTING POLITICAL AGENDAS

And just like in 2016:
Interesting.

If what the author suggests is true, these are some sick sociopaths.
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Old 12th September 2019, 05:24 PM   #951
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Sanders and Warren stepped on Biden's toes right out of the gate.

Biden's opening attacked Warren, "she's for Biden, I'm for Barack" or something like it. Warren attacked right back.
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Old 12th September 2019, 06:01 PM   #952
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Well, Booker, Klobuchar, Harris, and Buttigieg are making more sense on health care than the top three.

Biden really doesn't get it that he needs to stop claiming he got stuff done and that he knows what he's doing, the others don't.

Forgot to mention, Bernie has a sore throat.

And the crowd is lovin' the gotchas, including from the debate questioners.
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Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 12th September 2019 at 06:04 PM.
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Old 12th September 2019, 06:12 PM   #953
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Bloody eye Biden seems to be getting a bit of flak.
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Old 12th September 2019, 06:52 PM   #954
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Moderator to Sanders: "What's the difference between your views and those implemented in Venezuala, Cuba and Nicaragua?"

FFS!
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Old 12th September 2019, 06:56 PM   #955
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Moderator to Booker: (paraphrased) "cutting down the Amazon for meat is supposed to be bad, but you're a weirdo vegan! That can't be good for the Brazilian economy! Do you expect Americans to follow your weirdo diet?"
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:04 PM   #956
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I don't know if Yang has just been very savvy at getting his supporters to the debates but he seems to get a lot of enthusiastic applause to his points.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:10 PM   #957
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Hmmm...maybe there is just a lot of enthusiastic applause in general.

"I believe in good policies"

WoooooOOOOoooo!

"I don't believe in bad policies!"

WooooooooooooooooooooooooOOOOOOoooo!

"I am better than Donald Trump!"

****Crowd rips off clothes and attempts to hump the candidate****
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:15 PM   #958
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Oh dear...! Someone, somehow managed to stop the audience from whooping at every line.

Moderator points out something Biden said in the previous millenium: "I'll be damned if I pay reparations!"

Biden rambles on and audience gets impatient.

Wow! This is the easiest crowd to please and Biden just bored them.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:24 PM   #959
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Interesting article slamming the donors who gave to Mayor Pete's campaign:

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In Phase One, Buttigieg milked $32 million from 390,000 donors, most of whom knew next to nothing about his record, but were bowled over by a guy under 40 who can speak in complete paragraphs, sometimes in Norwegian. Phase Two was learning that Buttigieg has no strong and unique governing vision. We also learned his South Bend record on race relations as mayor, however well intentioned, is checkered. Phase Three, which so far has been a series of boasts about the campaign’s field operation, does nothing to solve the problems of Phase Two.
I liked this bit:

Quote:
You may have seen Democratic presidential candidates categorized as “wine track” and “beer track.” Political analyst Ron Brownstein popularized those labels, observing that the “brainy liberals with cool, detached personas and messages of political reform” on the wine track tend to lose in Democratic presidential primaries to candidates with support “rooted in the blue-collar and minority communities” on the beer track.
The sort of folk, in other words, who aren't impressed that Ulysses is his favorite book, because they've never heard of it.

Quote:
Candidates with better résumés—such as the forgotten governors Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper and Jay Inslee—made their own mistakes and maybe are inherently limp performers. But they didn’t get the same opportunities as Buttigieg to prove themselves because the whims of a very small, disproportionately white, disproportionately wealthy faction of Democrats can determine who gets critical early attention.
And as a result, the race seems down to three candidates (Biden, Warren or Sanders), of course, pending the imminent arrival of the greatest political army the world has never seen in support of Tom Steyer.
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Old 12th September 2019, 07:50 PM   #960
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
The sort of folk, in other words, who aren't impressed that Ulysses is his favorite book, because they've never heard of it.
I have a line from a James Joyce novel tattooed on my body.
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