Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4

[jimbob]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7044e1_w

Quote:

Summary
What is already known about this topic?

Previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 vaccination can provide immunity and protection against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and illness.

What is added by this report?

Among COVID-19–like illness hospitalizations among adults aged ≥18 years whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the adjusted odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among unvaccinated adults with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were 5.49-fold higher than the odds among fully vaccinated recipients of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine who had no previous documented infection (95% confidence interval = 2.75–10.99).

What are the implications for public health practice?

All eligible persons should be vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as possible, including unvaccinated persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Yet she is on the government advisory group on Covid. The way she writes you would think she had nothing to do with the policy! Yet she sits on the committee that advises the government on what to do. Perhaps if she had spent the last months focussing on protecting the country rather than writing a self-serving self promoting book things would be different. If she so strongly believes government policy is wrong she should resign because she obviously is incapable of making a convincing case to change policy.

Well, if that is the rule and she shouldn't be saying things that are not part of government policy (i.e suggesting items that are in Plan B), then maybe the government themselves shouldn't be making the same rules to their own staff?

I mean, if the idea is to get people infected to give the NHS a break over Christmas, then shouldn't they be doing their bit and getting infected now?

Oh, but what is this?

Quote:

MPs should begin social distancing in parliamentary committees and their staff should work from home, new guidance says, amid a rise in coronavirus cases in Westminster.

The House of Commons has instructed chairs of select committees to enforce social distancing in their meetings after a health and safety body ruled that the risk of Covid transmission had increased.

Tours and banquets in Parliament, which allow people who do not usually work in the Palace of Westminster to visit, have been cancelled.

Parliamentary authorities have said they will review the measures in two weeks, but the change comes after an uptick in cases in the House of Commons, including among ministers and senior staff.

Link

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Well, if that is the rule and she shouldn't be saying things that are not part of government policy (i.e suggesting items that are in Plan B), then maybe the government themselves shouldn't be making the same rules to their own staff?

I mean, if the idea is to get people infected to give the NHS a break over Christmas, then shouldn't they be doing their bit and getting infected now?

Oh, but what is this?



Link

1) Wrong government

2) The UK government does not make the rules for the procedures in the House of Commons (nor the Lords), that is an internal decision by the commons - led by the speaker - themselves.

Whilst you may complain MPs are not following government policy, that is not the UK government's fault.

If you want to look at the relevant government, members of the Scottish parliament do not appear to be masking, although they do seem to be distancing, this may just represent not many being in the chamber. Covid is probably worse in Scotland than in England.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Planigale

1) Wrong government

2) The UK government does not make the rules for the procedures in the House of Commons (nor the Lords), that is an internal decision by the commons - led by the speaker - themselves.

Whilst you may complain MPs are not following government policy, that is not the UK government's fault.

If you want to look at the relevant government, members of the Scottish parliament do not appear to be masking, although they do seem to be distancing, this may just represent not many being in the chamber. Covid is probably worse in Scotland than in England.

Item #2.

The government could set an example - just as the opposition benches tend to be masked up and the government benches are not.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Planigale

1) Wrong government

2) The UK government does not make the rules for the procedures in the House of Commons (nor the Lords), that is an internal decision by the commons - led by the speaker - themselves.

Whilst you may complain MPs are not following government policy, that is not the UK government's fault.

If you want to look at the relevant government, members of the Scottish parliament do not appear to be masking, although they do seem to be distancing, this may just represent not many being in the chamber. Covid is probably worse in Scotland than in England.

Worse in Scotland? Less mask wearing as well? I’ll look into it.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Farrar has resigned from SAGE.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other

[The Atheist]

Someone was asking about animal reservoirs of Covid a while back, when we already knew mink were a potential reserve.

Deer are an even better one: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...ad-among-them/

How that pans out will bear watching. They have few symptoms, but seem to spread it readily.

[Pixel42]

Looks like there may be an effective antiviral at last.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

Quote:

The first pill designed to treat symptomatic Covid has been approved by the UK medicines regulator.

The tablet - molnupiravir - will be given twice a day to vulnerable patients recently diagnosed with the disease.

In clinical trials the pill, originally developed to treat flu, cut the risk of hospitalisation or death by about half.

Health secretary Sajid Javid said the treatment was a "gamechanger" for the most frail and immunosuppressed.

In a statement he said: "Today is a historic day for our country, as the UK is now the first country in the world to approve an antiviral that can be taken at home for Covid."

[Lithrael]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

Looks like there may be an effective antiviral at last.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

Ah nice. It does look, though, like this one is actually worthy of the “what if it’s teratogenic” concerns that antivaxers have been throwing at the Moderna vaccine. Another medication that does a similar thing less aggressively is likely to be teratogenic in humans:

Quote:

Teratogenicity risk
Favipiravir has raised considerable concern about the teratogenicity risk in humans because it is suggested that favipiravir may cause delayed development or death of embryos during the early stage of pregnancy, in which a pregnancy test may give a negative result. The teratogenicity of favipiravir was observed in all the animal species (4 species) assessed in embryo-fetal developmental studies; and the exposure causing teratogenicity in animals is comparable to that in humans receiving favipiravir in accordance with the proposed dosage and administration.

From https://www.pmda.go.jp/files/000210319.pdf

Also I appreciate the incidental cuteness of some abstract summary lines I ran across while looking for this, such as “The combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir resulted in a marked antiviral activity in our hamster infection model”

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Lithrael

Ah nice. It does look, though, like this one is actually worthy of the “what if it’s teratogenic” concerns that antivaxers have been throwing at the Moderna vaccine. Another medication that does a similar thing less aggressively is likely to be teratogenic in humans:


From https://www.pmda.go.jp/files/000210319.pdf

Also I appreciate the incidental cuteness of some abstract summary lines I ran across while looking for this, such as “The combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir resulted in a marked antiviral activity in our hamster infection model”

I do look forward to a study looking at the combination of the oral anti viral molnupiravir with the inhaled anti-inflammatory / immunosuppresant budesonide in mild to moderate at risk out of hospital covid-19 infections. Combining the two, both of which have shown benefit individually, might be synergistic.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

Looks like there may be an effective antiviral at last.

Given that our central medicine purchaser has only just approved Regeneron, I expect we'll have the molnupiravir sometime before 2030.
_______________________________

Meanwhile, it looks like much of Europe is on track to replicate the UK's current Covid wave, as Germany hits record infections, while Russia continues to be battered.

I note that even Denmark, with its high vaccination rate, is seeing the start of a new wave. That's the one to keep an eye on, given their vaccine rate. If they struggle to contain the harm, we're all in trouble.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Given that our central medicine purchaser has only just approved Regeneron, I expect we'll have the molnupiravir sometime before 2030.
_______________________________

Meanwhile, it looks like much of Europe is on track to replicate the UK's current Covid wave, as Germany hits record infections, while Russia continues to be battered.

I note that even Denmark, with its high vaccination rate, is seeing the start of a new wave. That's the one to keep an eye on, given their vaccine rate. If they struggle to contain the harm, we're all in trouble.

Vaccination makes no real difference to infection. Without social distancing / masking there will be a surge in infections, vaccination will have no effect. What vaccination does is reduce hospital admissions and deaths. Not stop but reduce.

An interesting paper in Nature identifies a mutation much more common in South Asians (>60%) than Europeans (15%) that is associated with increased risk of severe disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-021-00955-3

Popular article based on research.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...th-study-finds

Differences in mortalities between populations may represent genetic differences not necessarily differences in public health policies or discrimination affecting particular ethnicities.

ETA

The risk gene is inherited from the Neanderthals, perhaps the Neanderthals died out due to a Covid like infection? Populations with a higher component of Neanderthal ancestry e.g. Europeans vs Africans may have more severe disease with Covid-19.

[ohms]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

Looks like there may be an effective antiviral at last.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

And a second one:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59178291

Quote:

An experimental pill to treat Covid developed by the US company Pfizer cuts the risk of hospitalisation or death by 89% in vulnerable adults, clinical trial results suggest.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Planigale

ETA

The risk gene is inherited from the Neanderthals, perhaps the Neanderthals died out due to a Covid like infection? Populations with a higher component of Neanderthal ancestry e.g. Europeans vs Africans may have more severe disease with Covid-19.

But would it make evolutionary sense that this particular gene would then live on in the descendants of Neanderthals and Hom Saps?

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by dann

But would it make evolutionary sense that this particular gene would then live on in the descendants of Neanderthals and Hom Saps?

Depends if it has a fitness advantage in other situations. Sickle cell disease persists because being a heterozygote gives a survival advantage in malaria endemic regions despite high mortality with homozygosity. The CF gene in Europeans persists at a high rate 5% of population because it is thought to have some advantage as a heterozygote probably in relation to infections such as typhoid.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Vaccination makes no real difference to infection. Without social distancing / masking there will be a surge in infections, vaccination will have no effect. What vaccination does is reduce hospital admissions and deaths. Not stop but reduce.

I thought it made some difference, but it may be that the difference is canceled out by changes in behavior after people get vaccinated.

Quote:

An interesting paper in Nature identifies a mutation much more common in South Asians (>60%) than Europeans (15%) that is associated with increased risk of severe disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-021-00955-3

Popular article based on research.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...th-study-finds

Differences in mortalities between populations may represent genetic differences not necessarily differences in public health policies or discrimination affecting particular ethnicities.

ETA

The risk gene is inherited from the Neanderthals, perhaps the Neanderthals died out due to a Covid like infection? Populations with a higher component of Neanderthal ancestry e.g. Europeans vs Africans may have more severe disease with Covid-19.

Another mutation (they call it a polymorphism) that may affect Covid severity was reported in Science:
Defective viral RNA sensing linked to severe COVID-19

Quote:

Although many factors govern how sick people become, a key driver of the severity of COVID-19 appears to be genetic, which is common for other human viruses and infectious agents (1). On page 579 of this issue, Wickenhagen et al. (2) show that susceptibility to severe COVID-19 is associated with a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the human gene 2′-5′-oligoadenylate synthetase 1 (OAS1).
. . .

Wickenhagen et al. examined a cohort of 499 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the UK. Whereas all patients expressed OAS1, 42.5% of them did not express the antiviral p46 isoform. These patients were statistically more likely to have severe COVID-19 (be admitted to the intensive care unit).

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Given that our central medicine purchaser has only just approved Regeneron, I expect we'll have the molnupiravir sometime before 2030.

There's hope, NZ usually follows Australia in many ways, don't they?

"Following regulatory approval by the TGA, Ronapreve will join other COVID-19 treatments including sotrovimab and remdesivir that are already available to health professionals, through the National Medical Stockpile to help treat people with COVID-19.

"Australia has also secured an advanced purchase agreement for 300,000 courses of the promising oral COVID-19 treatment Molnupiravir for supply in 2022 subject to TGA approval."

https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/...-19-treatments

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I thought it made some difference, but it may be that the difference is canceled out by changes in behavior after people get vaccinated.

I would count it as highly likely that such is the case in practice. At last check, the vaccines provide some resistance to detectable infection and reduced viral load output if infected, making them less infectious from the start. Social distancing, mask wearing, and reduced mobility/in person social interaction in general provide fairly effective protection, though, and reductions in those are fairly certainly of more import when it comes to overall infection rates.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Vaccination makes no real difference to infection. Without social distancing / masking there will be a surge in infections, vaccination will have no effect.

That's not right.

Vaccination provides high protection against infection for several months, and once boosted, for an unknown period of time.

At 1 month after two shots, Pfizer offers 78% protection against infection. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...after-2-months

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

That's not right.

Vaccination provides high protection against infection for several months, and once boosted, for an unknown period of time.

At 1 month after two shots, Pfizer offers 78% protection against infection. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...after-2-months

Here in Czech Republic, with another wave starting, it shows only about 50% protection from infection. We are 7 month since vaccination started, so basically the worst possible timing. Or maybe the wave is starting exactly because the effectiveness is vanning. Israel showed similar data. It improved greatly with 3rd dose though in Israel, and we're just starting.
Also the protection against death and severe case stays at 80% or better.

Certainly at the moment the protection against infection is too low to give any preferential treatment to vaccinated. On the other hand that's what governments are trying first before mandates. So the virus is just happy.

[Puppycow]

A recent video by popular YouTuber John Campbell has me shaking my head.

He's basically reading number from Our World in Data for Africa as if they were reliable.

Although he does ask the question of whether the data are accurate, he seems to answer his own question in the affirmative ("probably underreported but reasonably accurate" he says, around 7:10-25).

But if we took the figures from Africa at face, you would have to conclude that vaccines are worthless. In fact, this is literally an Anti-Vaxxer talking point. I've seen them make this argument: the countries with the lowest rates of vaccination (mostly African and other very poor countries) also have lower death rates according to Our World in Data.

[Pixel42]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

But if we took the figures from Africa at face, you would have to conclude that vaccines are worthless. In fact, this is literally an Anti-Vaxxer talking point. I've seen them make this argument: the countries with the lowest rates of vaccination (mostly African and other very poor countries) also have lower death rates according to Our World in Data.

I assume the lower life expectancy is a factor? The elderly and vulnerable can't die of Covid 19 if they've already died of something else.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

I assume the lower life expectancy is a factor? The elderly and vulnerable can't die of Covid 19 if they've already died of something else.

Fairly certainly. There are other notable factors as well, of course, but that is one of the notable ones, by my understanding. Another couple notable ones is that they both generally took the pandemic more seriously (they KNOW that their health care systems won't be able to handle it if it was left unchecked) and there's less reason to travel to them from the more infected countries. Actual lockdowns are pretty good at combatting Covid, by the look of it, and when some of the most notable clusters/starting points in poor Central American countries are fairly certainly the result of the US summarily deporting those that were infected (effectively and possibly actually intentionally, given the conditions and actions of those in charge), there's something to be said there.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Fairly certainly. There are other notable factors as well, of course, but that is one of the notable ones, by my understanding. Another couple notable ones is that they both generally took the pandemic more seriously (they KNOW that their health care systems won't be able to handle it if it was left unchecked) and there's less reason to travel to them from the more infected countries. Actual lockdowns are pretty good at combatting Covid, by the look of it, and when some of the most notable clusters/starting points in poor Central American countries are fairly certainly the result of the US summarily deporting those that were infected (effectively and possibly actually intentionally, given the conditions and actions of those in charge), there's something to be said there.

Open air lifestyle is a huge factor

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

I assume the lower life expectancy is a factor? The elderly and vulnerable can't die of Covid 19 if they've already died of something else.

That may well be true, but the real problem is this:

Quote:

COVID-19 deaths are a key indicator to track the evolution of the pandemic. However, many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data on births, deaths and causes of death. A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.

When you don't have a functioning civil registration and vital statistics system then it's just guesswork what people are dying of in that country.

Also the median age in the continent of Africa is 19.7 years, in Europe 43.7 years. That likely plays a factor, but without accurate vital statistics and covid testing, who knows how many people are dying there.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Here in Czech Republic, with another wave starting, it shows only about 50% protection from infection. We are 7 month since vaccination started, so basically the worst possible timing. Or maybe the wave is starting exactly because the effectiveness is vanning. Israel showed similar data. It improved greatly with 3rd dose though in Israel, and we're just starting.
Also the protection against death and severe case stays at 80% or better.

Certainly at the moment the protection against infection is too low to give any preferential treatment to vaccinated. On the other hand that's what governments are trying first before mandates. So the virus is just happy.

Sorry, but where are you getting this info. It is contrary to what I have read (especially assertion about waning effectiveness). I hope you aren't falling into same trap as idiots arguing against vaccines because they can't do the math. And there was recent french study that showed presence of antibodies even after a year.

So far, per-county infections look like map of vaccination, where the are more vaccinated people (or were there were more infected in winter/spring wave) the less infected in this wave.

ETA: And which Israeli study you refer to? If it is the one I think it is, than it still showed ~90% protection against infection by delta.

[dann]

A Danish website, TV2.dk, now has a very good presentation of new cases and hospitalization per 100,000. It distinguishes between the three groups, unvaccinated, partly vaccinated and fully vaccinated:
Dagens coronatal: Stort overblik opdateret hver dag klokken 14 (TV2.dk)
Scroll down to: Smittede (infected) pr. 100.000 and Indlagte (hospitalized) pr. 100.000.
Share of people vaccinated against COVID-19: Fully vaccinated 76%, partly vaccinated 1.2%, unvaccinated 22.8%.

The graphs make it obvious how effective the vaccines are. Even the partly vaccinated have a considerable degree of protection in comparison to the unvaccinated. On the other hand, they also make it clear that there is no such thing as being 100% protection yet.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

A recent video by popular YouTuber John Campbell has me shaking my head.

He's basically reading number from Our World in Data for Africa as if they were reliable.

Although he does ask the question of whether the data are accurate, he seems to answer his own question in the affirmative ("probably underreported but reasonably accurate" he says, around 7:10-25).

But if we took the figures from Africa at face, you would have to conclude that vaccines are worthless. In fact, this is literally an Anti-Vaxxer talking point. I've seen them make this argument: the countries with the lowest rates of vaccination (mostly African and other very poor countries) also have lower death rates according to Our World in Data.

I have to wonder a little bit about this guy, to be honest.

I know that I have been critical of him before, for example, his enthusiasm over Ivermectin and his gloriously inept response to researchers who have shown just how much fraud there has been in Ivermectin (and honestly it has just got worse and worse for IVM regarding Covid), but I know that some people here have said that he has been very good at explaining things in ways that have really clarified the pandemic.

I think that is good and bad.

First of all, of course it is a good thing if he is helping people, but now that he has people's trust, it does bother me that whenever his videos pop up in my feeds, it seems to be promoting more and more fringe ideas.

(Also, I still think that referring to himself as Dr John Campbell is misleading. Yes, I know that I got yelled at before and asked "Don't you know you can get a doctorate in nursing!?!?" and have I no respect for nurses, etc....? Well, yes, I do know that, and yes I do have respect for nurses - and in fact my mother was a nurse herself, but he is not a doctor of nursing. As far as I can tell his doctorate is in education. Yeah, it still means he is a doctor. But for many it is a big difference if, say, Bret Weinstein or Dr Bret Weinstein is suggesting to people that they should take Ivermectin.)

[marting]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

When you don't have a functioning civil registration and vital statistics system then it's just guesswork what people are dying of in that country.

Yep.

Quote:

Also the median age in the continent of Africa is 19.7 years, in Europe 43.7 years. That likely plays a factor, but without accurate vital statistics and covid testing, who knows how many people are dying there.

And that's an even larger issue. IFR of Covid-19 drops about 10x for every 20 years of age. That's the biggest factor in Africa. Also, Covid-19 deaths in Africa were very low prior to vaccines. Africa v Europe is not even close to a viable argument against vaccines.

[Chris_Halkides]

The The Economist magazine provided the following numbers for Africa. The first column is the official Cover-19 deaths; the second column is deaths per 100,000; the third column is estimated excess deaths; the fourth column is est. XS per 100,000 and the final column is the ratio of est. XS deaths to official C19 deaths.

219,350. 16.0 (840k to 2.5m) (61 to 180) +800%

"These data make clear that covid-19 has led to the deaths of far more people than official statistics suggest (see our briefing)."

[jimbob]

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/...s-dramatically

Quote:

When Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge upgraded its face masks for staff working on COVID-19 wards to filtering face piece 3 (FFP3) respirators, it saw a dramatic fall – up to 100% – in hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections among these staff.

The findings are reported by a team at the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) NHS Foundation Trust. The research has not yet been peer-reviewed, but is being released early because of the urgent need to share information relating to the pandemic.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

When you don't have a functioning civil registration and vital statistics system then it's just guesswork what people are dying of in that country.

Then, you need to factor in the countries that are flat-out lying. India is top of the list due to the sheer scale, but their official death total is millions short.

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/...s-dramatically

Holy Zarquon, how can we be two years into a pandemic and this not already be strict policy?

[marting]

John Campbell did get wrapped up in IVM and still is to some degree. But he's also been on a tear about using aspiration as part of vaccination to prevent unintended vascular injection.

The Wall Street Journal has a piece about myocarditis in young males after vaccination. This occurs at very low rates and almost always results in full recovery but john strongly feels it's likely due to vascular injection. I think he has a point and it's one of the mechanisms discussed in the WSJ piece.

WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/researc...is-11636290002

After reading the mouse study which showed extreme mouse heart inflamation with IV mRNA v IM I'm inclined to think he's right.

Intravenous Injection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccine Can Induce Acute Myopericarditis in Mouse Model
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...iab707/6353927

Quote:

In a Balb/c mouse model with both male and female mice, IV but not IM administration of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine induced a rapid onset of multifocal myopericarditis with elevated serum troponin, cardiomyocyte degeneration, and changes of both necrosis and apoptosis, adjacent inflammatory infiltrate of mononuclear cells, interstitial edema, and visceral pericardial calcification within 2 dpi. Moreover, the IL-1β, IFN-β, IL-6 and TNF-α expression levels generally increased significantly from 1 dpi to 2 dpi in the IV group but not the IM group. Overall, the findings have satisfied the Dallas and immunohistochemical criteria of myocarditis [13].

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Then, you need to factor in the countries that are flat-out lying. India is top of the list due to the sheer scale, but their official death total is millions short.

Indeed. I've seen plausible estimates for India where the central number is sufficient to almost double the whole world's death toll.

At least tenfold in some parts of India based on cremations with Covid protocols.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Holy Zarquon, how can we be two years into a pandemic and this not already be strict policy?

Also this.

You don't need the level of evidence we now have for FFP3 masks to realise that the risk:benefit was strongly in favour of such a minor intervention.

[marting]

Duplicate

[Chris_Halkides]

The Economist link I provided above gives the ratio of estimate excess deaths (1.2m to 7.2m) over official Cover-19 deaths (about 461,000) to be 900%. The spread in the estimates for excess deaths is large for India and China.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Sorry, but where are you getting this info. It is contrary to what I have read (especially assertion about waning effectiveness). I hope you aren't falling into same trap as idiots arguing against vaccines because they can't do the math. And there was recent french study that showed presence of antibodies even after a year.

So far, per-county infections look like map of vaccination, where the are more vaccinated people (or were there were more infected in winter/spring wave) the less infected in this wave.

ETA: And which Israeli study you refer to? If it is the one I think it is, than it still showed ~90% protection against infection by delta.

I'm just using current data from here https://www.covdata.cz/cesko.php infections 65+, which have 80% vaccination rate. So I just take number of vaccinated infections, divide by 4 to correct for 4:1 vaccination ratio in population, and then divide by number by non vaccinated infections. For recent days it's about 60%, to weeks back it was closer to 50%. It would be better to do it with exact age group size and counts of vaccinated and non-vaccinated, but for rough estimate this should be enough.

Israel showed between 60-70% when the last wave started, but it went up
rapidly with introduction of 3rd dose. When the wave peaked, it was above 80%. I used same method, data from here: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/...edium=referral
Unfortunately I can't control the page well enough to get to historical data, as it is in Hebrew and google fails to translate it. Maybe you will have less problems.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Israel showed between 60-70% when the last wave started, but it went up
rapidly with introduction of 3rd dose. When the wave peaked, it was above 80%. I used same method, data from here: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/...edium=referral
Unfortunately I can't control the page well enough to get to historical data, as it is in Hebrew and google fails to translate it. Maybe you will have less problems.

Back in September, a cousin directed me to a New England Journal of Medicine thing that gave some numbers to compare booster versus non-booster -

For the Non-Booster group, 4439 cases of infection for 5,193,825 person days of risk. For the Booster group, only 934 cases for 10,603,610 person days of risk.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides

The Economist link I provided above gives the ratio of estimate excess deaths (1.2m to 7.2m) over official Cover-19 deaths (about 461,000) to be 900%. The spread in the estimates for excess deaths is large for India and China.

Still well short, I'd say.

In shocking news, Russia's official count is likely to be under by half a million or so: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...XV5VTXOGYJMWQ/

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Still well short, I'd say.

In shocking news, Russia's official count is likely to be under by half a million or so: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...XV5VTXOGYJMWQ/

BuT i ThOuGhT tHaT tHe AuThOrItIeS aRe TrYiNg To MaKe It LoOk BaD sO tHeY cAn ImPoSe ReStRiCtIoNs


Talking about Russian dodgy figures. Check out the plot of turnout vs United Russia's result in the 2021 election. Especially in the higher turnout results.

https://twitter.com/hippopedoid/stat...184468993?s=20

[marting]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Here in Czech Republic, with another wave starting, it shows only about 50% protection from infection. We are 7 month since vaccination started, so basically the worst possible timing. Or maybe the wave is starting exactly because the effectiveness is vanning. Israel showed similar data. It improved greatly with 3rd dose though in Israel, and we're just starting.
Also the protection against death and severe case stays at 80% or better.

Certainly at the moment the protection against infection is too low to give any preferential treatment to vaccinated. On the other hand that's what governments are trying first before mandates. So the virus is just happy.

Here's recent study in Nature (Nov. 2) That shows Ve against infection around 50%

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01583-4

BNT162b2 effectiveness against any, symptomatic or asymptomatic, Delta infection was 45.3% (95% CI, 22.0–61.6%) ≥14 d after the first vaccine dose, but only 51.9% (95% CI, 47.0–56.4%) ≥14 d after the second dose, with 50% of fully vaccinated individuals receiving their second dose before 11 May 2021.

Lancet Preprint. Consistent with the Nature piece above.
Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination Against Risk of Symptomatic Infection, Hospitalization, and Death Up to 9 Months: A Swedish Total-Population Cohort Study
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3949410

Findings: Vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 against infection waned progressively from 92% (95% CI, 92-93, P<0·001) at day 15-30 to 47% (95% CI, 39-55, P<0·001) at day 121-180, and from day 211 and onwards no effectiveness could be detected (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).