Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[MarkCorrigan]

T-72 and lesser? The T-72 is a pile of crap, how rubbish are the lesser tanks going to be?

[theprestige]

The T-72, well maintained and well crewed, seems to be fit for purpose. It probably can't go toe to toe with Abrams and its cousins in a "fair" fight, but that's not the question.

Keep in mind that the vast majority of equipment used by Ukraine is functionally identical to the equipment being used by Russia. It's not the quality of the T-72 that's the problem for Russia.

[Aridas]

Supposedly, the northeastern Kherson front is collapsing again. The Wagner channel is apparently saying that the situation is even worse than it was up in the beginning of the big Kharkiv counteroffensive. Also, supposedly all the Russian leadership in Kherson has already fled, along with many of the rest of the Russians that were brought in. There have been claims that in Snihurivka, Russians blew a bunch of ammo to prevent the Ukrainians for getting it... but didn't forget to take various looted appliances including washing machines en masse? In the middle of a military retreat, which would you choose to take with you? Ammo or a fridge? The fridge, obviously, duh! Uh huh. With priorities like that, Russia's performance is quite understandable.

[ThatGuy11200]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Supposedly, the northeastern Kherson front is collapsing again. The Wagner channel is apparently saying that the situation is even worse than it was up in the beginning of the big Kharkiv counteroffensive. Also, supposedly all the Russian leadership in Kherson has already fled, along with many of the rest of the Russians that were brought in. There have been claims that in Snihurivka, Russians blew a bunch of ammo to prevent the Ukrainians for getting it... but didn't forget to take various looted appliances including washing machines en masse? In the middle of a military retreat, which would you choose to take with you? Ammo or a fridge? The fridge, obviously, duh! Uh huh. With priorities like that, Russia's performance is quite understandable.

I've heard that they might be taking appliances for the electronics that they aren't able to procure because of sanctions.

[Doubt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SleyqYvFZ_s

DW news says 9,000 Russian troops arrived in Belarus. A bit small for a division. Supposedly they are in a joint unit with Belarussian troops.

Tough time of year for this. It is above freezing but not very dry. Not great for vehicles. Average temperature in Ukraine drops to 0 C or less by December. If the ground is frozen, that is good for armor. But since Russia has not been able to supply troops properly winter warfare is not going to go well. If they rely on supplies from Belarus, they are going to have a small gain follow by the same sort of missing resources as Russia itself.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200

I've heard that they might be taking appliances for the electronics that they aren't able to procure because of sanctions.

Unlikely. There's not a lot of computing power in a washing machine and it's optimised for its intended task. Repurposing it for some military use wouldn't be straightforward and even if there were some chip they identified they could use we'd keep seeing one particular model of washing machine which had been pried open and the valuable piece torn out, not entire machines carried away. No, this is garden variety private enterprise looting in the style Russia seems to run on.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Doubt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SleyqYvFZ_s

DW news says 9,000 Russian troops arrived in Belarus. A bit small for a division. Supposedly they are in a joint unit with Belarussian troops.

Tough time of year for this. It is above freezing but not very dry. Not great for vehicles. Average temperature in Ukraine drops to 0 C or less by December. If the ground is frozen, that is good for armor. But since Russia has not been able to supply troops properly winter warfare is not going to go well. If they rely on supplies from Belarus, they are going to have a small gain follow by the same sort of missing resources as Russia itself.

It's hard to miss the fact that Belarus is the only member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization participating. The rest of the Russian led, NATO for countries that suck is either staying out of it or opening their borders to Russians fleeing conscription.

Ukraine should be so lucky that Russia and Belarus attack it from the north. That could be the mass capture incident Ukraine has been looking for.

[ThatGuy11200]

A video of another Russian jet crashing.

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[SpitfireIX]

Douglas Macgregor running his mouth (and keyboard) again:

Whether in print, radio, television, or online, the narrative is clear: despite horrific losses—at least 400,000 Ukrainian battlefield casualties including 100,000 soldiers killed in action—Ukrainian forces are winning. Moreover, the narrative says, America’s financial and economic dominance will ultimately overwhelm the deceptively weak Russian economy. . . .

The ongoing buildup of 700,000 Russian forces with modern equipment in Western Russia, Eastern Ukraine and Belorussia is a direct consequence of Moscow’s decision to adopt an elastic, strategic defense of the territories it seized in the opening months of the war. It was a wise, though politically unpopular choice in Russia. Yet, the strategy has succeeded. Ukrainian losses have been catastrophic and by November, Russian Forces will be in a position to strike a knockout blow.

Today, there are rumors in the media that Kiev may be under pressure to launch more counterattacks against Russian defenses in Kherson (Southern Ukraine) before the midterm elections in November. At this point, expending what little remains of Ukraine’s life blood to expel Russian forces from Ukraine is hardly synonymous with the preservation of the Ukrainian state. It’s also doubtful that further sacrifices by Ukrainians will assist the Biden administration in the midterm elections.

The truth is Moscow’s redline concerning Ukrainian entry into NATO was always real. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea were always predominantly Russian in language, culture, history, and political orientation. Europe’s descent into economic oblivion this winter is also real, as is support for Russia’s cause in China and India and Moscow's rising military strength.

The Russians aren't even claiming anywhere near that many Ukrainian casualties, though their death claims are at least in the ballpark. And of course the truth is closer to about 10,000, and by extension about 50,000 total casualties. And just based on open-source information, it's clearly impossible for the Russians to have 700,000 troops, or even a quarter of that, with "modern equipment."

The video, which includes similar statements to the above, is an interview by appeaser Dmitri Simes, titled "Who is winning in Ukraine? Sober analysis by Douglas Macgregor." If that's Macgregor's sober analysis, I'd hate to see his analysis after he's had a few shots of whiskey.

[Bob001]

Food for thought: Putin thinks he is anointed by demons.

Quote:

“Putin and his entourage take the spirit world very seriously,” says a Kremlin official who requested anonymity to ensure his security, navigating what some insiders maintain is the Russian president’s Twilight Zone. “It’s not a big leap of faith for a Russian to think Putin will do what’s necessary to destroy anyone looking to exorcize the imaginary demons who they believe give him power.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-su...war-on-ukraine

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

And just based on open-source information, it's clearly impossible for the Russians to have 700,000 troops, or even a quarter of that, with "modern equipment."

How to get 700,000 troops:

Wait for snow to start sticking.
Build snowmen.
Attach magic carrots....er...... Kalashnikovs, to snow men.
Behold! Frosty the infantryman!

[Lord Emsworth]

Originally Posted by Doubt

How to get 700,000 troops:

Wait for snow to start sticking.
Build snowmen.
Attach magic carrots....er...... Kalashnikovs, to snow men.
Behold! Frosty the infantryman!

Snowgolems.

[SpitfireIX]

I forgot to mention that I think Macgregor says and writes the things he does because of a combination of his paleoconservative views and the fact that he's butthurt over his ideas about radically restructuring Army ground forces having been largely ignored.

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

I forgot to mention that I think Macgregor says and writes the things he does because of a combination of his paleoconservative views and the fact that he's butthurt over his ideas about radically restructuring Army ground forces having been largely ignored.

That, or he's just giving us the "bigger picture".

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth

Snowgolems.

Somebody tell Asylum films we have a worthy successor idea for Sharknadow.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200

I've heard that they might be taking appliances for the electronics that they aren't able to procure because of sanctions.

I suspect more likely the motivation is this is my loot that I can take home, it's valuable to me personally, the ammunition belongs to the government and it's no skin off my nose if it's lost.

[dudalb]

" Eastern Ukraine and Crimea were always predominantly Russian in language, culture, history, and political orientation."

Gee, you could say the same thing about the North American colonies before the American Revolution....

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

I forgot to mention that I think Macgregor says and writes the things he does because of a combination of his paleoconservative views and the fact that he's butthurt over his ideas about radically restructuring Army ground forces having been largely ignored.

Let's face it Paleoconservaties plain old do not like democracy though it;s only recently they have come out of the closet on it.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Bob001

Food for thought: Putin thinks he is anointed by demons.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-su...war-on-ukraine

Here is hoping that they try to summon Cthulhu and it backfires, and Putin ends up getting eaten.

[Aridas]

Slight tangent time.

How is this Russian mobilization not provoking more direct internal opposition? Well... to poke at a couple data points regarding the women -

Quote:

Russian mother gets a phone call from Ukraine, telling her that her son has been captured by the Ukrainian Army.

She proceeds to ask the most important question.

Is the iPhone 13 he was gifted back home whole & safe?

Maybe they can send the phone back?

Quote:

"Women say: there is no work, men drink anyway, and mobilization means money and benefits in the future", - a practical explanation why so many wives and mothers in Russia are ok with mobilization.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Bob001

Food for thought: Putin thinks he is anointed by demons.

Quote:

“Putin and his entourage take the spirit world very seriously,” says a Kremlin official who requested anonymity to ensure his security, navigating what some insiders maintain is the Russian president’s Twilight Zone. “It’s not a big leap of faith for a Russian to think Putin will do what’s necessary to destroy anyone looking to exorcize the imaginary demons who they believe give him power.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-su...war-on-ukraine

So he's decided that Napoleon is also one to emulate.

https://windowstoworldhistory.weebly...f-destiny.html

I wonder if Putin's also ignoring his demonic advice

Quote:

In a sworn affidavit, Napoleon’s Counsellor of State Louis Mathieu Count Mole reported that he heard the Little Red Man of Destiny warn Napoleon of the future after the Battle of Wagram which took place on July 5 and 6th, 1809. The two day struggle between the Fifth Coalition – Britain and Austria- against Napoleon’s Imperial French, German and Italian Army took place about six miles outside of Vienna on the Marchfeld plain on the north bank of the Danube. The French Army won the battle, but the Little Red Many of Destiny warned Napoleon not to conduct his planned Russian campaign and cautioned him that his victory days were soon to be over unless he tried to negotiate peace in Europe.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Slight tangent time.

How is this Russian mobilization not provoking more direct internal opposition? Well... to poke at a couple data points regarding the women -

Perhaps there are survivor benefits too, men worth more dead than alive.

[arthwollipot]

Latest update from Kings and Generals - second half of September including the retaking of Lyman:

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[jimbob]

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...p?fr=operanews

Of all newspapers to cover reported Kremlin anger at Wagner PMC, it's like finding in depth coverage of Love Island in the FT

[jimbob]

Russia reusing exactly the same stills from their anti White Helmets propaganda to claim Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/sta...IWwuq2XA_wynJA

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Slight tangent time.

How is this Russian mobilization not provoking more direct internal opposition? Well... to poke at a couple data points regarding the women -

Men won't protest because they'll get mobilized immediately.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Russia reusing exactly the same stills from their anti White Helmets propaganda to claim Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/sta...IWwuq2XA_wynJA

From that thread: According to "the head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological forces",

Quote:

Russia has “readied all forces and capabilities to fulfill tasks in conditions of radioactive contamination.”

I assume that "all forces" of course include newly mobilized soldiers, who, in addition to two weeks of training, are now perhaps told to buy their own ABC gear, or ask their grandmas to knit some for them. They will be fine then

[Darat]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Russia reusing exactly the same stills from their anti White Helmets propaganda to claim Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/sta...IWwuq2XA_wynJA

They aren't even trying now.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Oystein

From that thread: According to "the head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological forces",


I assume that "all forces" of course include newly mobilized soldiers, who, in addition to two weeks of training, are now perhaps told to buy their own ABC gear, or ask their grandmas to knit some for them. They will be fine then

I'm more imagining them being told to place crates around a few hundred kilogrammes of explosives. And people finding out later that the crates contained unshielded Colbalt 60

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Darat

They aren't even trying now.

It's one of their more sensible decisions. I mean, why bother? Nobody with any sense will believe them, and all their good useful idiots will parrot whatever crap they need them to.

[Oystein]

Two bits of eye-candy, that lent me a bit of visual understanding of how and where NATO is operating close to Ukrainian territory:

1. NATO AWACS, based in Western Germany, constantly monitor Russian movements primarily in the air, but also at sea and (or so it is alleged here) on the ground:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZYCLJDWckY
I am posting this also because I served in that multi-national NATO unit myself, back in 1993 as a conscript (which was unusual and certainly not optimal - very nearly everybody there is a pro). Had a chance to fly along inside an AWACS wile we were monitoring the No Fly Zone over Bosnia, enforcing UNSC resolutions.
Back then, the planes seemed a bit oldish to me, the 707 frame certainly was technologically vintage at the time already. Today, almost 30 years later, they are still flying the same airframes, with the same radar domes! Of course the technology inside has been refurbished - but I doubt the AWACS today sees a lot more than it did back then. I don't think we could identify ships, and certainly ground movements were invisible. IIRC, we had a fairly good picture of what's flying around within a radius of up to 400 km. This has not been enhanced since. What has improved certainly is sensitivity of target detection through improved radar sinals and, crucially, better hardware/software and the integration of data from multiple sources.

Anyway, the AWACS are of course on the lookout for planes, missiles and drones coming from Russia - and of course Ukraine gets that data in real time. In the video clip, the plane is on station over Poland (you can see the outline of the Baltic Sea at one point) and so a long way away from the active fronts in Kherson and further East.
Not sure, but I think other AWACS are patrolling the Black Sea, either from Romania or from out at sea. Perhaps British and US E-3 Sentries are taking up that chore, as the 14 NATO frames in Geilenkirchen would, IMO, be too few to monitor two areas constantly for a long time: Each shift in area is 8 hours, to which you add 4 more to go from Germany to Poland and back, for a 12-hour flight. So you need, as a bare minimum, 3 planes. But you need to swap both planes and crews frequently, to get maintenance and rest. So 6 planes and crews are needed for a longer term 24/7 surveillance. And then, you still need to do training and excercises and stay up-to-date on other areas of Europe, like keep an eye on the Meditarrean, etc. That's what the other 6 planes and crews do then. and 2 planes out 14 you can always consider to be out of service, for major repairs, upgrades or testing.

---

2. U.S. 101st Airborne Division deployed near Ukraine's border in Romania:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKjdPwMk6m4
This is the first time the 101st is headquartered in Europe since WW2. We see some training action here, apparently with Romanian infantry in coordination with US armor. Looks impressive! Just a handful of km from the UA border, they say.
This is probably as much posturing as it is training. I'd think this is to tell the Ruscist they should not even think about touching Moldova, let alone Romania. Of course this means NATO is ready (even if not intending) to move into Ukraine for any case where this might become necessary. I wonder if there is some sort of red line, like taking Odesa, which Russia is not allowed to cross?

[SteveAitch]

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...p?fr=operanews

Of all newspapers to cover reported Kremlin anger at Wagner PMC, it's like finding in depth coverage of Love Island in the FT

Well, I once read a review of an Alice Cooper concert in the FT. A while ago, mind you.

[theprestige]

In other Ukraine war news, the Ukrainian government is announcing that it has begun to implement something called the Logistic Functional Area Services (LOGFAS).

This is NATO's inventory and supply management system. It's basically a vast bureaucracy of interconnected subsystems. Subsystems for warehousing and transportation, subsystems for supply requests and fulfillment, subsystems for tracking and reporting, etc. All across a multinational organization.

Integrating with NATO's logistical management system is probably a significant step for Ukraine. Having decent transparency and auditing of their military supply chain will help to mitigate the risk of Ukraine's military ending up in the same situation as Russia's military, ten years down the line.

[Arcade22]

Only a Russian could be stupid enough to believe that the Ukrainian's would even use a "dirty bomb" (an absolutely useless weapon) let alone in their own country in areas they are trying to liberate. But hey, they continue to say that they are burning their homes and shooting themselves to death only to slander great Russian heroes.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by theprestige

In other Ukraine war news, the Ukrainian government is announcing that it has begun to implement something called the Logistic Functional Area Services (LOGFAS).

This is NATO's inventory and supply management system. It's basically a vast bureaucracy of interconnected subsystems. Subsystems for warehousing and transportation, subsystems for supply requests and fulfillment, subsystems for tracking and reporting, etc. All across a multinational organization.

Integrating with NATO's logistical management system is probably a significant step for Ukraine. Having decent transparency and auditing of their military supply chain will help to mitigate the risk of Ukraine's military ending up in the same situation as Russia's military, ten years down the line.

Interesting, sounds excellent.
I am a little surprised there is no article on LOGFAS in Wikipedia. A quick Google search gave me the following overviews:

• What is LOGFAS? - by a company "Nexus LCM", that lists the LOGFAS modules
• Introduction to LOGFAS - a 5 min yet boring YouTube presentation by a "Norwegian Defence Uni College"
• NATO Communications and Information Agency describing "What we do - Service Support and Business Application Services", where LOGFAS plays a major role

So it seems to be a software suite, working on a defined database structure shared by all NATO institutions and members, facilitating standardized logistics (inter-)operations and transparency.

[Lord Emsworth]

That dirty bomb is nothing but a dark tale about Ukrainian depravity aimed at their home audiences and scare tactics (about Russia using a dirty bomb) towards western audiences.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Interesting, sounds excellent.
I am a little surprised there is no article on LOGFAS in Wikipedia. A quick Google search gave me the following overviews:

• What is LOGFAS? - by a company "Nexus LCM", that lists the LOGFAS modules
• Introduction to LOGFAS - a 5 min yet boring YouTube presentation by a "Norwegian Defence Uni College"
• NATO Communications and Information Agency describing "What we do - Service Support and Business Application Services", where LOGFAS plays a major role

So it seems to be a software suite, working on a defined database structure shared by all NATO institutions and members, facilitating standardized logistics (inter-)operations and transparency.

Yeah, I was a little surprised, too. The oblique and vague way it's presented at the links you found (I found the same ones) is what leads me to believe it's a "deep bureaucracy" kind of thing. A huge pile of interconnected systems with abstruse rules that are more focused on describing the process than actually doing what I'd consider "real work". Only when you get deep enough into it do you realize that describing the process is the real work. Or something.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Back then, the planes seemed a bit oldish to me, the 707 frame certainly was technologically vintage at the time already. Today, almost 30 years later, they are still flying the same airframes, with the same radar domes!

They are old. There is a new plane being built for Australia based on the 737 that the US may adopt. Used flat panels above the body of the plane in place of the rotating dome. Looks a little strange.

There is a different plane for looking at the ground. JSTARS. Not sure what the production platform is, but the prototype tested 20+ years ago was on a 767.

The new 737. A bit odd that it started off as an export plane instead of building it for the USAF first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_AEW%26C

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth

That dirty bomb is nothing but a dark tale about Ukrainian depravity aimed at their home audiences and scare tactics (about Russia using a dirty bomb) towards western audiences.

I have developed my own theory about this. Its probably completely wrong because I'm just a schmuck on the internet who doesn't know what I'm talking about, but here goes:

The dam at Nova Kakhovka.

1. Russia needs it to maintain the supply of water to Crimea (assuming Russia hold Crimea, which is now probably Russia's #1 long range priority in this war). But....
   
   
2. Unlike the other bridges across the Dnipro, this one will still have some ability to be rebuilt as a bridge on a relatively short timeframe - so long as the dam exists. The dam is a good footing for a bridge.
   
   
3. That makes the dam a threat to Russia, should Russia lose the west bank of the Dnipro (which seems very likely).
   
   
4. So Russia balances the risk reward (water to Crimea/Ukr route to cross the river) and think they may want to blow it up, but that they want to wait until the last moment because blowing the dam up and losing that water supply hurts.
   
   
5. Russia worries that efforts to wire the dam with explosives might be met with sabotage, and would also very clearly point the finger at Russia.
   
   
6. So use a nuke!
   
   
7. One mechanism, one trigger, fits in a shipping crate small enough to be moved by a forklift, no set up on site other than final setup of the bomb that can occur in the back of a truck, out of site of everyone. Very secret.
   
   
8. Except that Ukraine has no nukes - makes it harder to blame Ukraine.
   
   
9. And Russia is maybe not super confident that the Russian nukes will even work properly - decayed trigger materials might result in an inefficient chain reaction that blows apart the fission/fusion material too early.
   
   
10. This would reduce yield and also spew out more radioactive debris than a blast that works correctly. A nuclear explosion, but a less powerful one with more fallout.
    
    
11. Plus, any blast on or just below the surface will also produce much more fallout than an aerial blast - like the Sedan crater in Nevada.
    
    
12. So one way or the other, any Russian use of a nuke to destroy the dam will release a whole lot of radioactive materials getting spewed out with less dilution than an aerial blast would.
    
    
13. So make that last point (#12) work for Russia. Ukraine does, after all have access to radioactive materials, it has nuclear plants including Chernobyl.
    
    
14. Blow the dam with an old decayed nuke, which coupled with the position of the bomb creates an enormous amount of fallout.
    
    
15. Blame Ukraine. Even if it is correctly identified as a nuke just claim that Ukraine built one from Chernobyl crap and that it was messy because it was poorly built because the Ukrainians are ignorant children who are flailing without the firm hand of Mother to correct them. (ETA: Also allows Russia to blame Ukraine for the disruption of the Crimean water supply.)

I'm wrong. This won't happen. But my mind wanders these ways.

[lobosrul5]

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1