Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by crescent

I have developed my own theory about this. Its probably completely wrong because I'm just a schmuck on the internet who doesn't know what I'm talking about, but here goes:

<snip>

You know, the crazier, more nonsensical ideas ones comes up with the more likely that it is actually what some Russian "braniac" is coming up with. But, more evidence is pointing to Russia does actually plan on defending Kherson. The civilian evacuation makes sense. The less people to have to feed the better given the limited routes in and out.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

Remember that the Wagner Ptomekin line dragons teeth are also just resting on the surface whilst the Siegfried Line ones were mostly buried

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by crescent

I have developed my own theory about this. Its probably completely wrong because I'm just a schmuck on the internet who doesn't know what I'm talking about, but here goes:

The dam at Nova Kakhovka.

1. ...
2. Blow the dam with an old decayed nuke, which coupled with the position of the bomb creates an enormous amount of fallout.
3. Blame Ukraine. Even if it is correctly identified as a nuke just claim that Ukraine built one from Chernobyl crap and that it was messy because it was poorly built because the Ukrainians are ignorant children who are flailing without the firm hand of Mother to correct them. (ETA: Also allows Russia to blame Ukraine for the disruption of the Crimean water supply.)

I'm wrong. This won't happen. But my mind wanders these ways.

Problems with this:

• It is nigh impossible to calculate how a nuke that's decayed, but not yet decayed enough to be unworking altogether, will perform: Will it go off at 90% original yield and endanger Russian units that decided not to evacuate far enough? Or will it be so weak it fails to breach the dam?
• If one branch of the contingency plan is to claim Ukraine made in improvised nuke out of Chernobyl waste, now is the time to plant that idea into heads: The Ruscists, after all, invented a story that Ukraine has been developing biological weapons for years, so why have they not made up stories about a UA nuclear program?
• You can't really readily build nukes from power plant stuff. After all, you don't want your power plants to explode like nukes, so their fissionable material is not enriched enough to blow up. Radioactive waste is even more impossible to make explode in a nuke. That's a lie few will believe (altough, of course, a brainwashed Russian population may)
• It is really very easy for nuclear scientists to tell from the fallout what materials were used in a dirty or clean or formerly clean but depleted weapon. The IAEA will no doubt do an analysis and report on the results

So this story works, if at all, only on the gullible masses inside Russia.
But you could make them believe any other silly story at this point - no need to actually risk havoc with an unreliable nuke.

[JoeMorgue]

Also you can't just go "LOL not our nuke." Nuclear experts are really good at determining where nuclear material comes from.

Multiple countries, I think Sweden was the first, was able to now that a nuclear accident hat occurred in the Soviet Union and which nuclear plant it was before word of it leaked out of the Soviet Union by just analyzing the particles in the air.

Russia nukes something and The US, EU, and China bare minimum, probably others, will be able to tell who's nuke it was.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

Holy ****** A Toyota 4WD with a winch could remove these bitches!

(By the way: I am not aware having ever heard or read the term "Siegfried line" - that's a term made up and used by the Western allies. The German word is "Westwall" - "Western Rampart".)

[JoeMorgue]

Those look significantly less intimidating than the red concrete crash barrier balls outside a suburban Target.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Problems with this:
[*]It is nigh impossible to calculate how a nuke that's decayed, but not yet decayed enough to be unworking altogether, will perform: Will it go off at 90% original yield and endanger Russian units that decided not to evacuate far enough? Or will it be so weak it fails to breach the dam?

That's a good point. But it also supposed that Russia views its own soldiers as something more than slaves.

Quote:

[*]If one branch of the contingency plan is to claim Ukraine made in improvised nuke out of Chernobyl waste, now is the time to plant that idea into heads: The Ruscists, after all, invented a story that Ukraine has been developing biological weapons for years, so why have they not made up stories about a UA nuclear program?

They have.
More than once.

Quote:

[*]You can't really readily build nukes from power plant stuff. After all, you don't want your power plants to explode like nukes, so their fissionable material is not enriched enough to blow up. Radioactive waste is even more impossible to make explode in a nuke. That's a lie few will believe (altough, of course, a brainwashed Russian population may)[*]It is really very easy for nuclear scientists to tell from the fallout what materials were used in a dirty or clean or formerly clean but depleted weapon. The IAEA will no doubt do an analysis and report on the results[/list]So this story works, if at all, only on the gullible masses inside Russia.
But you could make them believe any other silly story at this point - no need to actually risk havoc with an unreliable nuke.

Those are all good points. But gullible masses are not limited to Russia, they have enormous political power in the West. And they are very distrustful of science. If the greatest scientists in the world all say with 100% certainty that it was Russia and the talk show hosts, Qanon Internet personalities and TV preachers all say it was a coked up Nazi Jew, then 40% of the population will disregard the science and blame the Nazi Jew.

[theprestige]

The Siegfried dragon's teeth were reinforced concrete pyramids buried one to two meters in the ground, and projecting one to two meters above it. They were closely spaced, and usually in several rows with taller teeth in the back.

The Wagner dragon's teeth look like someone saw a picture of the Siegfried line, and thought they were just the above-ground part. And also couldn't afford to install them in the depth and density required.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is receiving shipments of combat engineering vehicles that should be able to make short work of these "fortifications".

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Holy ****** A Toyota 4WD with a winch could remove these bitches!

(By the way: I am not aware having ever heard or read the term "Siegfried line" - that's a term made up and used by the Western allies. The German word is "Westwall" - "Western Rampart".)

Reading the comments, apparently it took... two grown men to take them off a truck and place them. So you could probably get away with a 2WD lol.

I had heard the term Westwall as well. I guess we renamed it since it was towards the east to SHAEF's perspective? Also, we had various names for the German defensive lines in Italy which I assume were just something the Allies came up with for reference purposes.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by theprestige

The Wagner dragon's teeth look like someone saw a picture of the Siegfried line, and thought they were just the above-ground part. And also couldn't afford to install them in the depth and density required.

Wagner's Dragon's dentures.

[crescent]

I'm wondering if the little pyramids are more designed to work like Czech Hedgehogs - move with the vehicle a bit to high center it and get some wheels or tracks off the ground.

Removable with small vehicles - but they would be under fire the whole time, and the areas with the barriers could be preregistered with artillery and mortar and mined. In looking at the one set the cement things are paired with an anti-vehicle ditch and covered by zig-zag trench fighting positions on higher ground.

Armored dozers and tanks with dozer blades are a thing, but I have not seen either in Ukraine so far.

I hate to be the nag, but so far when Russia has managed to really dig in, they have proven very difficult to dislodge. They've only got a few miles of these things so far - but they are far to the rear of Russian lines. At Ukraine's current rate of progress Russia has months to keep building these before Ukraine gets that far. Russia may be building them in the places that would otherwise be easiest for Ukraine to cross. So it's "easy" to go around, but going around means going through terrain that is otherwise far more suitable for the defender.

I'm wondering if these are signs of Russia developing a much more long term defensive mindset, gearing up to refreeze the conflict.

[JoeMorgue]

No but the thing is "The War" isn't the only thing going on. Russia's economy is not a bunch of kittens and Unicorns and Rainbows and no matter how many oligarchs Putin has thrown out of hospital windows he can't just ignore the fact that this was is very unpopular forever.

Nobody is expecting the Ukraine to beat Russia militarily in some traditional sense. At the end of the day Russia can throw Russia at the Ukraine until the Ukraine breaks and everybody knows that. Nobody is expecting Russia to loss in that sense.

But more wars are won by making the war just not worth fighting anymore than wars are won by winning the war.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by theprestige

The Siegfried dragon's teeth were reinforced concrete pyramids buried one to two meters in the ground, and projecting one to two meters above it. They were closely spaced, and usually in several rows with taller teeth in the back.

The Wagner dragon's teeth look like someone saw a picture of the Siegfried line, and thought they were just the above-ground part. And also couldn't afford to install them in the depth and density required.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is receiving shipments of combat engineering vehicles that should be able to make short work of these "fortifications".

Remember where this line is. Way behind the front lines.

It's not a defensive line but an offensive move in the battle that is more physically dangerous to the top of Wagner PMC - namely internal positioning for when Putin goes.


This is Wagner saying that they can defend Russia even when the standard military is defeated and has to retreat.

I'm sure it's modelled on the SS. Especially its form as an independent power base.

[Hercules56]

Russia Today presenter calls for genocide against Ukrainian children.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-720433

His so-called apology is lame.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Hercules56

Russia Today presenter calls for genocide against Ukrainian children.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-720433

His so-called apology is lame.

He has been fired for that.

Bizarrely he is openly gay and HIV+ so not the demographic I'd associate wi Kremlin propagandists

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

No but the thing is "The War" isn't the only thing going on. Russia's economy is not a bunch of kittens and Unicorns and Rainbows and no matter how many oligarchs Putin has thrown out of hospital windows he can't just ignore the fact that this was is very unpopular forever.

Nobody is expecting the Ukraine to beat Russia militarily in some traditional sense. At the end of the day Russia can throw Russia at the Ukraine until the Ukraine breaks and everybody knows that. Nobody is expecting Russia to loss in that sense.

But more wars are won by making the war just not worth fighting anymore than wars are won by winning the war.

Ukraine is absolutely beating Russia militarily in the traditional sense.

And it's increasingly evident that Russia is already running low on "Russia to throw at Ukraine".

All of the ways that Ukraine is driving Russia back and liberating its people are traditional military ways to win wars. Better training. Better morale. Better equipment. Better intelligence. Better leadership. Better tactics. Better strategy. Better supply. Better logistics. Better allies.

And Russia is losing this thing in the time-honored traditional way to lose wars: By being worse at all the things Ukraine is better at, militarily.

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by Doubt

Wagner's Dragon's dentures.

Sure, laugh now, but wait 'til they apply the Poligrip.

[dudalb]

Kherson...another name from World War 2 makes the headlines...

[junkshop]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

Roll a d4 for mild inconvenience.

[theprestige]

Probably hurt the Ukrainians more if they just carpet-bombed their positions with Lego. Or with any other truly effective weapon that is completely beyond Russia's means.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth

That dirty bomb is nothing but a dark tale about Ukrainian depravity aimed at their home audiences and scare tactics (about Russia using a dirty bomb) towards western audiences.

Early on in the war Russia accused the Ukrainians of using chemical weapons, which they didn't. It's a propaganda lie designed to make people in Russia think that Ukraine is so horrible it'll use WMDs.

Meanwhile, Russia still hasn't taken the nuclear option off the table.

[gypsyjackson]

Originally Posted by junkshop

Roll a d4 for mild inconvenience.

Ever trodden on one of those bastards?

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

That's a real Spinal Tap moment.

[timhau]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

Like most of their propaganda, that's for domestic consumption. "Look, our glorious military is doing stuff!"

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by timhau

Like most of their propaganda, that's for domestic consumption. "Look, our glorious military is doing stuff!"

Exactly. And it's designed to make Prigozhin look good compared to Shoigu and the Russian MOD.

It's part of his play for the top job.

Originally Posted by jimbob

Remember where this line is. Way behind the front lines.

It's not a defensive line but an offensive move in the battle that is more physically dangerous to the top of Wagner PMC - namely internal positioning for when Putin goes.


This is Wagner saying that they can defend Russia even when the standard military is defeated and has to retreat.

I'm sure it's modelled on the SS. Especially its form as an independent power base.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Remember where this line is. Way behind the front lines.

It's not a defensive line but an offensive move in the battle that is more physically dangerous to the top of Wagner PMC - namely internal positioning for when Putin goes.


This is Wagner saying that they can defend Russia even when the standard military is defeated and has to retreat.

I'm sure it's modelled on the SS. Especially its form as an independent power base.

Emotional support fortifications.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Emotional support fortifications.

I have seen them called "coplerones"

[Oystein]

Interesting article by Bellingcat about the Russian team that programs the cruise missiles striking deep into Ukraine:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...es-on-ukraine/

Quote:

Following a six-month-long investigation, Bellingcat and its investigative partners The Insider and Der Spiegel were able to discover a hitherto secretive group of dozens of military engineers with an educational and professional background in missile programming. Phone metadata shows contacts between these individuals and their superiors spiked shortly before many of the high-precision Russian cruise missile strikes that have killed hundreds and deprived millions in Ukraine of access to electricity and heating. The group, which works from two locations – one at the Ministry of Defence headquarters in Moscow and another at the Admiralty headquarters in St. Petersburg – is buried deep within the Russian Armed Forces’ vast “Main Computation Centre of the General Staff”, often abbreviated as ГВЦ (GVC).

Much of the analysis relied on phone meta data obtained from Russian black cyber markets.

One take-away is that, as has been assumed here before, the October 10th salvo on Kyiv and other cities was not a spontaneous retaliation for the attack on the Kerch Street bridge on the 8th, but had been in preparation for about a week already.

They reached out to several members of this Russian team of specialists, to limited avail.

[IsThisTheLife]

Quote:

... the arsenal of democracy ...

Literally lol.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Ukraine is absolutely beating Russia militarily in the traditional sense.

And it's increasingly evident that Russia is already running low on "Russia to throw at Ukraine".

All of the ways that Ukraine is driving Russia back and liberating its people are traditional military ways to win wars. Better training. Better morale. Better equipment. Better intelligence. Better leadership. Better tactics. Better strategy. Better supply. Better logistics. Better allies.

And Russia is losing this thing in the time-honored traditional way to lose wars: By being worse at all the things Ukraine is better at, militarily.

Ukraine can't win this war militarily.

Even if they can beat the Russians back to the borders (unlikely), then what? Unless there is a political settlement, Russia can sit behind their border throwing missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine.

This war doesn't end until Russia decides it can't bear the economic hardship anymore, or Ukraine is annihilated.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Ukraine can't win this war militarily.

Even if they can beat the Russians back to the borders (unlikely), then what? Unless there is a political settlement, Russia can sit behind their border throwing missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine.

This war doesn't end until Russia decides it can't bear the economic hardship anymore, or Ukraine is annihilated.

Add to that Russians get tired of funerals for dead soldiers, which is a good chunk of why they gave up on Afghanistan. The loss rate here is much higher than Afghanistan.

Not loosing long enough does result a military victory. It just involves more than what happens on the battlefield.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Interesting article by Bellingcat about the Russian team that programs the cruise missiles striking deep into Ukraine:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...es-on-ukraine/



Much of the analysis relied on phone meta data obtained from Russian black cyber markets.

One take-away is that, as has been assumed here before, the October 10th salvo on Kyiv and other cities was not a spontaneous retaliation for the attack on the Kerch Street bridge on the 8th, but had been in preparation for about a week already.

They reached out to several members of this Russian team of specialists, to limited avail.

Interesting post (you probably meant the Kerch Strait bridge, not the Kerch Street bridge).

Does this mean that the October 8 attack on the Crimean Bridge was done by Russia, perhaps in order to have a pretext for massively striking Ukrainian power stations with cruise missiles and Iranian drones?

Does Bellingcat have anything on the September 26 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Interesting post (you probably meant the Kerch Strait bridge, not the Kerch Street bridge).

Does this mean that the October 8 attack on the Crimean Bridge was done by Russia, perhaps in order to have a pretext for massively striking Ukrainian power stations with cruise missiles and Iranian drones?

I don't think that's the conclusion to draw from that report, rather that the cruise missile and other attacks on Ukraine were planned before the attack and there was little or no correlation between the two.

Originally Posted by Michel H

Does Bellingcat have anything on the September 26 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines?

Why should it ?

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by The Don

I don't think that's the conclusion to draw from that report, rather that the cruise missile and other attacks on Ukraine were planned before the attack and there was little or no correlation between the two.

I think you might be underestimating how Machiavellian Putin can be. He may have some experience in manipulating the masses (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second...ings_in_Russia).

Quote:

Why should it ?

Bellingcat seems to be good at finding out what is really being done by the Russian "Security Services" (see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellin...lny_and_others).

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

WOW! Look at the magnificent scale of the Wagner tank traps in Ukraine, compared to the vaunted Siegfried line of Germany, which of course everyone knows worked and the allies have yet to enter German territory.

https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...292482/photo/1

I have heard several reports of captured conscripts saying that they didn't even know which way they were supposed to defend.

I'm thinking these pre made trenches/ obstacles may be so they can shove conscripts in there and tell them to shoot THAT way.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

I have heard several reports of captured conscripts saying that they didn't even know which way they were supposed to defend.

I'm thinking these pre made trenches/ obstacles may be so they can shove conscripts in there and tell them to shoot THAT way.

For that they need working weapons.

[Filippo Lippi]

The arsenal of democracy? Barely the Notts County of etc etc

[Wudang]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Yeah, I was a little surprised, too. The oblique and vague way it's presented at the links you found (I found the same ones) is what leads me to believe it's a "deep bureaucracy" kind of thing. A huge pile of interconnected systems with abstruse rules that are more focused on describing the process than actually doing what I'd consider "real work". Only when you get deep enough into it do you realize that describing the process is the real work. Or something.

A quick look and it reminds me of merging medical data from various incompatible systems. You need agreed standards and definitions, for ex not all 9mm ammo is the same. If one NATO country is short of artillery shells they might be in the kind of situation where returning them for a refund is not an option. Battle can be confusing and you want be sure exactly what is needed at point A can be found and sourced and moved to A and function as required. Boring boring detail.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi

The arsenal of democracy? Barely the Notts County of etc etc

Russia getting its ass kicked by the Schitt's Creek of Democracy.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Wudang

A quick look and it reminds me of merging medical data from various incompatible systems. You need agreed standards and definitions, for ex not all 9mm ammo is the same. If one NATO country is short of artillery shells they might be in the kind of situation where returning them for a refund is not an option. Battle can be confusing and you want be sure exactly what is needed at point A can be found and sourced and moved to A and function as required. Boring boring detail.

Vladimir Rezun related a story in Inside the Soviet Army that illustrates the Soviets' approach to this problem. One day Stalin showed up for a demonstration of a new 300mm rocket launcher, but the test had to be canceled because 300mm artillery shells had been sent by mistake. Everyone expected Stalin to order those responsible shot, but instead he said, "Change the designation of the rockets to 302mm."