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Old 6th July 2020, 10:34 AM   #641
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It doesn't matter why you say that. It is still a false analogy for reasons that have been given many times before - not the least being that predictions that the price of bitcoin is about to permanently collapse (this time for sure) have never materialized.
No one ever argued that it was immanent. Bitcoin will go to some approximation of zero eventually because it provides net negative value; it costs money to maintain and doesn’t create any value of it's own. How long that will take to happen is anyone’s guess.
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Old 6th July 2020, 01:20 PM   #642
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
I'm not predicting it's collapse or any future development.
You called bitcoin a "tulip bulb investment simulator". There has to be a reason why you compared it to an investment craze that flared briefly and burned out suddenly. I doubt that it is because you wanted readers to make the opposite inference.
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Old 6th July 2020, 01:24 PM   #643
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
No one ever argued that it was immanent. Bitcoin will go to some approximation of zero eventually because it provides net negative value; it costs money to maintain and doesn’t create any value of it's own. How long that will take to happen is anyone’s guess.
All irrelevant reasons. The only reason that bitcoin will lose value permanently is when all investors stop putting money into it forever.
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Old 6th July 2020, 03:50 PM   #644
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You called bitcoin a "tulip bulb investment simulator". There has to be a reason why you compared it to an investment craze that flared briefly and burned out suddenly. I doubt that it is because you wanted readers to make the opposite inference.
A valid point. However, bitcoin and cryptocurrency seem at least slightly closer to tulip bulbs than a traditional currency right now. It may be more accurate for me to say that it can't be compared with anything- including traditional currency or speculative investments. My thoughts on this aren't inflexible. You're the only poster in this thread who has accurately predicted the movement of bitcoin by saying 'we don't know.' You've been right 100% of the time and I unironically respect that.
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Old 6th July 2020, 03:53 PM   #645
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I have a problem with the world 'simulator'. Simulation is something different than reality. BTC is just as real investment as tulip bulb. You invest real money. You win / lose real money.
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Old 7th July 2020, 05:43 AM   #646
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
A valid point. However, bitcoin and cryptocurrency seem at least slightly closer to tulip bulbs than a traditional currency right now. It may be more accurate for me to say that it can't be compared with anything- including traditional currency or speculative investments. My thoughts on this aren't inflexible. You're the only poster in this thread who has accurately predicted the movement of bitcoin by saying 'we don't know.' You've been right 100% of the time and I unironically respect that.
There is a game aspect to bitcoin. Every mining computer is repeatedly guessing the "nonce" of the next block. The first computer to correctly guess the nonce "wins" the block.

Your problem is that you conflated this purely technical aspect of bitcoin with the speculative aspect of buying and selling the stuff. In this aspect, bitcoin is no different to any other speculative instrument.

Yes, a fiat currency backed by a "responsible" government is usually more reliable than bitcoin. Currency traders may even "hodl" some of the more stable international currencies.
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Old 7th July 2020, 05:43 AM   #647
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
All irrelevant reasons.
What is it you think is “irrelevant” the fact that no one said the things you claimed or the fact that bitcoin represents net negative economic value?
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Old 7th July 2020, 05:46 AM   #648
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
What is it you think is “irrelevant” the fact that no one said the things you claimed or the fact that bitcoin represents net negative economic value?
Neither. It is the fact that you think that these "reasons" predict the eventual demise of bitcoin.
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Old 7th July 2020, 06:05 AM   #649
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post

Your problem is that you conflated this purely technical aspect of bitcoin with the speculative aspect of buying and selling the stuff. In this aspect, bitcoin is no different to any other speculative instrument.
People use grain, speculators estimate whether that usage is going to go up or down and make their “bets” accordingly. This serves to help stabilize prices and protects producers from wide swings in price between planting and harvest. Currency speculators estimate supply and demand for money on international markets which helps smooth over international trade. Speculators in the stock and bond market look for over valued and undervalued

Buying bitcoin is nothing like either of these, so the statement that “it’s just like any other speculative instrument” is false. Other speculative instruments serve economic functions and have an underlying reason why speculators think the price will go up/down.
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Old 7th July 2020, 06:11 AM   #650
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Neither. It is the fact that you think that these "reasons" predict the eventual demise of bitcoin.
It’s a pretty safe bet that when something is useless and expensive to maintain it will eventually go away. It seems even the criminals are moving away from bitcoin and using other crypto currencies that suit their needs better.
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Old 7th July 2020, 07:19 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
It’s a pretty safe bet that when something is useless and expensive to maintain it will eventually go away.
I see bitcoin as being more akin to casinos. I see neither going away in the near future because they both play off human nature.
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Old 7th July 2020, 08:31 AM   #652
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Originally Posted by jrhowell View Post
I see bitcoin as being more akin to casinos. I see neither going away in the near future because they both play off human nature.
IMO speculating on bit coin lacks the immediate endorphin rush and immediate gratification of placing a bet in a casino, so it’s not going to have the same type of appeal.

When bubbles are forming you do get something akin to this as people go back to check the price and see that it's gone up. When the bubble is bursting you get the opposite effect which usually drives the asset below fair value. The problem with bitcoin is that there base value for it to gravitate to because it has no underlying utility.
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Old 7th July 2020, 09:45 AM   #653
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
When bubbles are forming you do get something akin to this as people go back to check the price and see that it's gone up. When the bubble is bursting you get the opposite effect which usually drives the asset below fair value. The problem with bitcoin is that there base value for it to gravitate to because it has no underlying utility.
Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
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Old 7th July 2020, 10:07 AM   #654
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
"Better posters than you"?

What does that even mean? Why the insult, all of a sudden?

Sheesh, you're so ******* protective of Bitcoin, it's sad.
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Old 7th July 2020, 10:26 AM   #655
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Easy Belz, of course he meant me, so it's ok
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Old 7th July 2020, 10:55 AM   #656
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
Per my post yesterday “about to pop” does not accurately represent anyone’s statements AFAICT. Saying there is a bubble that will pop eventually does not imply anything about when it will happen.
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Old 7th July 2020, 12:08 PM   #657
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
"Better posters than you"?

What does that even mean? Why the insult, all of a sudden?
Don't you see who's post was quoted? Why are you trying to take ownership of somebody else's post?
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Old 7th July 2020, 12:10 PM   #658
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Saying there is a bubble that will pop eventually does not imply anything about when it will happen.
Saying that there is a bubble doesn't mean that there is a bubble. Saying that the "bubble" has lasted 10 years so far is meaningless.

Bitcoin has shown that all your theories about utility are irrelevant when it comes to pricing a commodity.
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Old 7th July 2020, 12:25 PM   #659
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Don't you see who's post was quoted?
Yes, I can, and I object to you saying that to anyone. It's disrespectful without cause.

You should apologise to lomiller.

Quote:
Why are you trying to take ownership of somebody else's post?
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Old 9th July 2020, 02:49 PM   #660
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Saying that there is a bubble doesn't mean that there is a bubble. Saying that the "bubble" has lasted 10 years so far is meaningless.

Bitcoin has shown that all your theories about utility are irrelevant when it comes to pricing a commodity.
A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more

The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts.
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Old 9th July 2020, 03:19 PM   #661
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more

The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts.
Buffet and Munger say something similar.

Rat poison.
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Old 9th July 2020, 03:22 PM   #662
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more

The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts.
Question is how to determine 'true value' when the bubble lasts for years.
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Old 9th July 2020, 10:46 PM   #663
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With bitcoin correlating nicely with Wall Street and a top nicely in place there we can expect a bear market.
Rat poison.
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Old 10th July 2020, 12:28 AM   #664
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more

The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts.
With a definition that vague, every stock in the stock market could be considered to be in a bubble. You never know when an individual stock will crash - even if it takes centuries.

You can try to argue that stocks are different because companies make things but the "inherent" value of most publicly traded companies is little more than that put into it by the stock holders (just like bitcoin). The rest is all balanced out by debts and companies walk a fine line between making enough profit to service those debts / pay dividends and going broke.
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Old 10th July 2020, 10:24 AM   #665
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
With bitcoin correlating nicely with Wall Street and a top nicely in place there we can expect a bear market.
Rat poison.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.

That is why Buffet and Munger see rat poison.
It's been almost a month since your prediction of crashing below 7k and it hasn't happened. Just make a new guess each month and on the occasions you happen to be right you can once again pretend your TA is worth something.
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Old 13th July 2020, 05:35 AM   #666
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Question is how to determine 'true value' when the bubble lasts for years.
When something has utility, market value will have an underlying attractor that can be used to estimate future market value. Eg For a stock you can estimate all the money the company will earn in the future and convent that into the equivalent value in present day money. For a commodity like copper, you can estimate future production and future demand.


You can’t do this with something like bitcoin where demand is almost entirely other speculators, and at some point speculators will either get bored or frustrated at having bigger players manipulating the price and move on to something where there are long term supply/demand trends driving up the value.
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Old 13th July 2020, 04:10 PM   #667
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
When something has utility, market value will have an underlying attractor that can be used to estimate future market value. Eg For a stock you can estimate all the money the company will earn in the future and convent that into the equivalent value in present day money. For a commodity like copper, you can estimate future production and future demand.


You can’t do this with something like bitcoin where demand is almost entirely other speculators, and at some point speculators will either get bored or frustrated at having bigger players manipulating the price and move on to something where there are long term supply/demand trends driving up the value.
This is just made-up nonsense. Speculators drive the price of any brokered commodity to the extent that the price bears little relation to its "utility" value.

In any case bitcoin has utility. It can't be counterfeited and it can be transferred across the globe within minutes unhindered by man or machine. So bitcoin speculators aren't going to get "bored" and shoot themselves in the foot by dumping their holdings.
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Old 13th July 2020, 10:37 PM   #668
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
This is just made-up nonsense.

Speculators drive the price of any brokered commodity to the extent that the price bears little relation to its "utility" value.
No, it isn't nonsense. If Bitcoin is a commodity then the price should ultimately be set by what the end consumer is willing to pay.

But Bitcoin isn't a commodity in any real sense. It isn't consumed, either directly or by being incorporated into a product. Almost every person who buys Bitcoin expects to sell it again, hopefully for a higher price. So it is really just a vehicle for speculation. Its main 'value' is the warm fuzzy feeling it gives libertarians who HODL it because they think fiat currencies are doomed. But they are a minority of bitcoiners. Most are speculators who are playing the market, hoping to cash in on the next bubble before it collapses. So the actual 'commodity' isn't Bitcoin, it's the addle-headed minds of libertarians.

Quote:
In any case bitcoin has utility. It can't be counterfeited and it can be transferred across the globe within minutes unhindered by man or machine. So bitcoin speculators aren't going to get "bored" and shoot themselves in the foot by dumping their holdings.
That makes it a currency, not a commodity. But as a currency it sucks. Very few businesses take it, the price is extremely unstable, transaction times are much longer than other methods, and it has little protection against fraud and theft. Its utility as a currency doesn't explain the high price.

Bitcoin speculators will get bored once they stop being able to make easy money out of it, and/or find something else more profitable. If the HODLers get bored or spooked into selling then the price will collapse and investors will see that it is indeed 'rat poison'.

But hey, even rat poison can be a vehicle for speculation. You just have to convince enough people that it's worth buying (even if they have no practical use for it). I heard from a reliable source that rat poison is an effective treatment for Covid-19...
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Old 14th July 2020, 01:27 AM   #669
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
But hey, even rat poison can be a vehicle for speculation.
If you are just going to copy one of the most discredited posters in this thread then there is no need to detail all of the nonsense in your post.
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Old 14th July 2020, 02:08 AM   #670
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If you are just going to copy one of the most discredited posters in this thread then there is no need to detail all of the nonsense in your post.
Low-hanging Fruit Fallacy.

I just made that up. I'll let you think on it.
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Old 14th July 2020, 06:40 AM   #671
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Low-hanging Fruit Fallacy.

I just made that up. I'll let you think on it.
Making things up is par for the course in this thread.
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Old 14th July 2020, 06:47 AM   #672
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Making things up is par for the course in this thread.
And you just gave me yet another example of that new fallacy.

Good job. You do realise that what you're doing is dishonest, right?
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Old 14th July 2020, 10:08 AM   #673
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
And you just gave me yet another example of that new fallacy.

Good job. You do realise that what you're doing is dishonest, right?
So nobody is making up excuses to "explain" why bitcoin doesn't follow the laws of supply and demand that anything else that is traded follows?
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Old 14th July 2020, 10:22 AM   #674
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So nobody is making up excuses to "explain" why bitcoin doesn't follow the laws of supply and demand that anything else that is traded follows?
That has literally nothing to do with my post, which was about you ignoring the content of a post in order to focus on an irrelevant bit you could comment about and dodge the hard discussion.
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Old 14th July 2020, 11:08 AM   #675
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Low-hanging Fruit Fallacy.

Not to take sides in this debate, but good one. We often see this here, and more importantly, IRL as well. If this fallacy hasn't been christened yet, this is as good a name as any.
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Old 14th July 2020, 11:08 AM   #676
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Make it happen.
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Old 14th July 2020, 11:44 AM   #677
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I'd be interested in learning the total value of bitcoin and how much goods and services are purchased annually vs the same for US money.

I was only able to do a quick search so hopefully someone can supply better numbers but it looks like the total value of bitcoin is over 100 billion. An article claimed that the last 3 months of 2019 saw 600 million in illegal purchases alone using bitcoin. Though I'm skeptical as to how they're arriving at that number. I would imagine it's a bit difficult to track how much is actually spent on dark web markets.

It's also problematic for both bitcoin and dollars as to where the line is drawn for counting something as a purchase of a good or service vs speculation, investing, or savings.
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Old 14th July 2020, 01:14 PM   #678
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
That has literally nothing to do with my post, which was about you ignoring the content of a post in order to focus on an irrelevant bit you could comment about and dodge the hard discussion.
I have made the counter arguments so often in the past that repeating them is pointless. I know from experience that my rebuttals will be ignored and those same arguments made as if I had never posted anything at all.

The post consisted mainly about quibbling about the meaning of words and ignoring the substance of my argument or trying by stealth to make it appear that the substance of my argument had been rebutted.

I didn't have to point that out because the post repeated the stupidest argument against bitcoin which means that you can be sure that the rest of the post is of an equally low standard.
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Old 14th July 2020, 01:15 PM   #679
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I have made the counter arguments so often in the past that repeating them is pointless. I know from experience that my rebuttals will be ignored and those same arguments made as if I had never posted anything at all.
So why not just ignore it? Why reply with nonsense?
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Old 14th July 2020, 01:17 PM   #680
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Originally Posted by healthmanifested View Post
What do you all think about BitCoin? I have heard good and bad. I have heard it's really hard to convert it to US dollars.
I'd advise you not to touch it unless you're a criminal or a gambler.
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