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Old 3rd January 2021, 11:25 AM   #841
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Are you really going to stick your neck out like this after the thorough humiliation of the people who were posting here 2-3 years ago?
Why not? Sampson told me the law of infinite supply compels a price of $0.00 for all crypto currency. Why abandon ship now?
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Old 3rd January 2021, 12:45 PM   #842
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Why not? Sampson told me the law of infinite supply compels a price of $0.00 for all crypto currency. Why abandon ship now?
I just checked, I bailed at 15575 on 5 november
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Old 3rd January 2021, 01:32 PM   #843
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I just checked, I bailed at 15575 on 5 november
What does that mean, exactly?
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Old 3rd January 2021, 01:56 PM   #844
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
If everyone agrees BTC is worth $40,000 then everyone has gained. It's not a zero sum game in that sense. Stocks and shares do that as well.
Nonsense. Stocks and shares are based the real worth of businesses, not pure fantasy like Bitcoin. It is 100% a zero-sum game.

Originally Posted by psionl0
Bitcoin shot past the $30K barrier in the last couple of hours and if past bubbles are any indicator, this might only be the beginning.
Beginning of what? Another huge bubble that will burst as dramatically as it appeared?

Anyway it's too little too late.
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Old 3rd January 2021, 02:58 PM   #845
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Nonsense. Stocks and shares are based the real worth of businesses, not pure fantasy like Bitcoin. It is 100% a zero-sum game.

Beginning of what? Another huge bubble that will burst as dramatically as it appeared?

Anyway it's too little too late.
Which can net you nice sum if you can pull fast enough.
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Old 3rd January 2021, 04:58 PM   #846
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Nonsense. Stocks and shares are based the real worth of businesses, not pure fantasy like Bitcoin. It is 100% a zero-sum game.

The value of stocks and bonds can be rooted in fantasy. History has demonstrated this. If the value of BTC does not go down because it offers some service that no other business provides, it will stay up. At the moment speculation and criminal enterprises seem to be the major backers. Since no other CC comes close to BTC then maybe BTC is all that is needed to meet that demand.
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Old 3rd January 2021, 10:01 PM   #847
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Beginning of what? Another huge bubble that will burst as dramatically as it appeared?
Yes the bubble will burst (and water is wet) but that is meaningless drivel unless you can give a time frame or a peak price.

BTW The price crash is never as "dramatic" as the price rise. Historically, after the crash, the price has never fallen below the peak price of the previous bubble.
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Old 4th January 2021, 01:56 PM   #848
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The value of stocks and bonds can be rooted in fantasy.
The operative word being can. It's rare with bonds and takes something like the sub-prime housing market crisis but stocks can be under or over valued for years or even decades. In the long term though they track with earnings and\or expected earnings. Bitcoin has zero earnings so it's long term value is zero.

Commodities don't have earnings and track with demand and availability. More people want to use the commodity to make things or to simply consume and the price goes up. If there is more supply then there is consumption then price drops. Again thought Bitcoin can't be valued this way because people don't consume it or use it to make anything.

Currency is also valued based on supply and demand but in this case the supply\demand balance is maintained by central bank action, the velocity of money and national current accounts balance. This doesn't quite apply to bitcoin though you could approximate capital flows in and out of criminal endeavours as current accounts balance so it gets some value there.

Overall though the things that real investment vehicles derive their value from don't apply to bitcoin. Overall its like the value of stocks after the company is bankrupt. They are worth nothing but can continue tor trade and people can even make a profit of the volatility.

Wrt to the current bubble, with the increasing dominance of just a few major players over the last couple years I'm going to say the current increase is market manipulation.
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Old 4th January 2021, 07:46 PM   #849
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Pumps are all a part of the fun.
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Old 4th January 2021, 11:43 PM   #850
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
The operative word being can. It's rare with bonds and takes something like the sub-prime housing market crisis but stocks can be under or over valued for years or even decades. In the long term though they track with earnings and\or expected earnings. Bitcoin has Used stamps have zero earnings so it's their long term value is zero.

Commodities don't have earnings and track with demand and availability. More people want to use the commodity to make things or to simply consume and the price goes up. If there is more supply then there is consumption then price drops. Again thought Bitcoin used stamps can't be valued this way because people don't consume it them or use it them to make anything.
ftfy.
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Old 5th January 2021, 12:08 AM   #851
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Umm Blockchain technology.
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Old 5th January 2021, 04:07 AM   #852
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Blockchain is a good and bad concept. I'm BTC it is a part of the scaling problem.
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Old 5th January 2021, 08:29 AM   #853
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
ftfy.
Bitcoin is neither artistic nor is it collectable in any way. Any more lame arguments you want to try?
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Old 5th January 2021, 08:33 AM   #854
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Blockchain is a good and bad concept. I'm BTC it is a part of the scaling problem.
Blockchain is a solution in search of a problem. It's interesting but ultimately unnecessary because there are almost always other ways to do the same thing and they are usually simpler, better or both.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:16 AM   #855
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
ftfy.
Ironically I completely agree.

Meaning: you seem to be confirming that BTC is a speculative purchase rather than a currency, like beanie babies or stamps. This is where I position BTC in the universe of 'investing': greater fool theory, ie speculation and betting.

Worth mentioning that there's a disanalogy that I also deploy for hoarding vs collecting: can you *display* the inventory? If the person is stockpiling Star Wars figurines, but they're displayed to share and enjoy with friends, I don't consider it hoarding.

Likewise, if the person is displaying their stamp collection, I don't consider it investing or trading, so much as enjoying an intrinsic property of the object.

BTC fails the 'display' criteria, so generally, I don't consider it a collectable like stamps. It's entirely greater fool theory speculation, in my opinion.


And at the moment, it even fails as a currency substitution for most people. The floating value of fiat currency is a feature, not a bug. BTC is in a deflationary spiral right now, which means people are hesitant to spend it. Economies have been damaged by deflation because it motivates currency hoarding and slows down the velocity of trade.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:44 AM   #856
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Bitcoin is neither artistic nor is it collectable in any way. Any more lame arguments you want to try?
There is no need. You win the lameness competition by a country mile.

What you are doing has been done ad-infinitum since the bitcoin threads first started. You pretend that bitcoin has no history (it only appeared yesterday) and make up "reasons" why bitcoin will never amount to anything.
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Old 5th January 2021, 09:59 AM   #857
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Ironically I completely agree.

Meaning: you seem to be confirming that BTC is a speculative purchase rather than a currency, like beanie babies or stamps.
I have never said anything else. Some libertarians in the past have speculated that you could buy pizza with bitcoin and there have been examples of merchants accepting payment in bitcoin but because it doesn't scale, it will never be an everyday currency.

Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
This is where I position BTC in the universe of 'investing': greater fool theory, ie speculation and betting.
The use of the words "greater fool" are meant to imply "ponzi" but all it means is that someone buys something primarily because they believe that they will be able to sell it at a higher price later on.

This "theory" can also apply to real estate, some stocks and (of course) collectibles. This is especially so if the price of the item has been bid well beyond what its value as a utility might be. The "fool" aspect only applies if it is inevitable that at some point, the price of the item in question will collapse permanently.
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:29 AM   #858
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I have never said anything else. Some libertarians in the past have speculated that you could buy pizza with bitcoin and there have been examples of merchants accepting payment in bitcoin but because it doesn't scale, it will never be an everyday currency.


The use of the words "greater fool" are meant to imply "ponzi" but all it means is that someone buys something primarily because they believe that they will be able to sell it at a higher price later on.

This "theory" can also apply to real estate, some stocks and (of course) collectibles. This is especially so if the price of the item has been bid well beyond what its value as a utility might be. The "fool" aspect only applies if it is inevitable that at some point, the price of the item in question will collapse permanently.
Understood. There's a continuum between 'secondary market' and 'greater fool' and in my opinion, it's about whether it's adaptively managed and revenue generating, ie does it 'make money' and if it doesn't suddenly, are there people at the helm who can right the ship. Stocks are pieces of ongoing businesses, they make money. Most real estate makes money. Collectibles do not. As such, I categorize BTC as a collectible or currency.

Generally, my pushback on the BTC discussion is isolated to claims that it is an investment (as opposed to speculation), and that it's a superior currency. It's a garbage currency, although it has a niche in the dark web for illegal transactions, because the utility of easily accessible anonymity creates value over many other currencies. It's the easy access that's important: gold, diamonds, &c could do the same, but it's a hassle for microtransactions.

But yes, out in the massmarket, it's an inferior offering. And especially right now. Who would buy a pizza with BTC today if they genuinely thought they could buy two pizzas with the same amount next Friday instead? This is what damaged the Japanese economy for the last 30 years: currency deflation is an economy killer.

The defense of BTC switches back and forth about claims of it being an 'investment' when it's rishing; but when it's falling, the discussion pivots to it's 'the future of currency' - realistically, the magnitude of value fluctuation in and of itself tells me it's ***** as currency, and simultaneously, that it's not investing either, it's speculating.

Which is not an argument against participating - just that the participants hopefully are not fooling themselves, and also not misinforming others about what we're dealing with. It's beanie babies, just admit it, and keep on trading. There's money to be made in arbitrage and guessing right. Personally, I prefer blackjack.
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Old 5th January 2021, 11:39 AM   #859
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
There is no need. You win the lameness competition by a country mile.

What you are doing has been done ad-infinitum since the bitcoin threads first started. You pretend that bitcoin has no history (it only appeared yesterday) and make up "reasons" why bitcoin will never amount to anything.
Bitcoin hasn't amounted to anything. If you think that will change it's up to you to offer reasons why.
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Old 5th January 2021, 11:54 AM   #860
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The use of the words "greater fool" are meant to imply "ponzi" but all it means is that someone buys something primarily because they believe that they will be able to sell it at a higher price later on.
All three of these are different. A Ponzi scheme is a specific type of rip-off. Wrt investing some investments can reasonably be expected to go up in value, others should not have such expectations. Greater fool investing refers specifically to the latter.

Furthermore even something that is the subject of greater fool investing can have underlying value. For example take a bond that NPV calculations say is worth $1000, and someone buys it for $5000 because they believe they can sell it later for $10000 is still engaging in greater fool investing.


Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post

This "theory" can also apply to real estate, some stocks and (of course) collectibles.
Bitcoin is not compared to these. Buildings have real earnings and you can also look at the location and surrounding growth to anticipate what the demand for that parcel of land will be. Stocks also have future earnings that can be used to anticipate it's future value.

Collectables are bit different from stocks and bonds but anyone who has ever collected anything can tell you that items made specifically as collectables rarely increase in value. Accidental curiosities aside, the things that do increase are the ones that get used intensely so they wear out then people go back and want them for nostalgia reasons later in life.

Again, none of this applies to bitcoin.
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Old 5th January 2021, 12:05 PM   #861
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post

Meaning: you seem to be confirming that BTC is a speculative purchase
not even that. True speculation still has an underlying reasoning behind it. Eg you can speculate on how much a city will grow and where demand of land will be high in the future, so you buy land there and wait. Alternatively you can invest in wheat futures because you think dry weather in key regions will negatively impact supply. Again, there are still real, physical reasons underpinning speculation, at least if you want to do is successfully.

Bitcoin is more like betting on a football game, but without the fun of cheering for your local team. Increasingly though it's like placing bets with criminals who are rigging the games behind the scenes.
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Old 5th January 2021, 12:31 PM   #862
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Bitcoin hasn't amounted to anything. If you think that will change it's up to you to offer reasons why.
$34,000 is a lot of amounting.

If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.

Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Again, none of this applies to bitcoin.
And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.
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Old 5th January 2021, 08:13 PM   #863
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Kinda ironic that banks are now on board with Stable Coins and blockchain solution for doing business. From now on there can be no denial that BTC has changed the banking system. And true to the OP, BTC has changed the World, at least everywhere there is a bank.

https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle...g-transactions

"Top US banking regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has approved the use of stablecoins for the settlement of financial transactions by banks."
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Old 5th January 2021, 10:07 PM   #864
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
$34,000 is a lot of amounting.

If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.


And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.
$35,729 a few minutes ago. It blew past $35K and is now testing $36K.
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Old 6th January 2021, 09:24 AM   #865
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
$34,000 is a lot of amounting.

If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.
This is where arguments are being conflated I think, and it's a subject matter I believe is appropriate for a skeptics forum. I mentioned stock picking in another thread, same thing. This is is like a lot of skeptical topics. Dowsing, for example.

Nobody's saying a dowser can't get it right once in awhile. Just that skeptics appreciate it's chance. Dowser advocates point to the high profile correct guesses, but ignore comparison against the background success rate.



Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.
"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.

skepticism is theoretically a generalized skill, but these types of discussions proved to me that no, it isn't. it's a belief system and appears very compartmentalized.
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Old 6th January 2021, 10:15 AM   #866
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
This is where arguments are being conflated I think, and it's a subject matter I believe is appropriate for a skeptics forum. I mentioned stock picking in another thread, same thing. This is is like a lot of skeptical topics. Dowsing, for example.

Nobody's saying a dowser can't get it right once in awhile. Just that skeptics appreciate it's chance. Dowser advocates point to the high profile correct guesses, but ignore comparison against the background success rate.





"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.

skepticism is theoretically a generalized skill, but these types of discussions proved to me that no, it isn't. it's a belief system and appears very compartmentalized.
You need to examine the price history before you act like you know it all.

I am not cherry picking some low price and some high price. I am looking almost exclusively at the historical price peaks. And the simple fact is that everybody who has bought and "hodled" bitcoin is ahead on the deal. This is true no matter when in the last 12 years they bought bitcoin. This includes the price peak of almost $20K in December 2017.

The only losers are the ones who bought when the price was high then panicked and sold when the price came crashing. Had they kept their nerve, they would be popping the champagne today. It is no different to any investments you might make in the stock market. Had I sold my stock holdings earlier this year when the stock market was in free fall I would have locked in some serious losses. But now they are only disappointing returns.

Do all the special pleading you like but bitcoin is no different to any other instrument of speculation.
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Old 6th January 2021, 10:51 AM   #867
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post


"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.
Further to: it's also important to remember that bitcoin speculators, on average, make absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism for them to make money that doesn't come out of some other speculators pocket.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:14 AM   #868
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You need to examine the price history before you act like you know it all.

Do all the special pleading you like but bitcoin is no different to any other instrument of speculation.
I'm confused because it seems like we're aggressively agreeing. I have no idea what special pleading you are referring to.

I'm one of those 'buy and hold' people (refer to my anecdote in an earlier post about getting mine at a bitcoin faucet 10 years ago) - but I consider it the same as if I bet on black 11, not congratulating myself that it's a reward for some sort of ability or knowledge.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:16 AM   #869
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Further to: it's also important to remember that bitcoin speculators, on average, make absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism for them to make money that doesn't come out of some other speculators pocket.
I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:25 AM   #870
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.
Actually, I stand corrected. The net zero is higher, because we need to subtract mining costs. There are estimates that total bitmining costs so far is around 20% of market cap, so breakeven for winners equalling losers is arguably around $5200.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:37 AM   #871
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.
While there may be a +ve book value, in terms of actual money speculators have spent more real $ than they have taken out and there is no way for one speculator to get any real money out without someone else putting real money in.

This is different from something like the real-estate market where the owner can rent it out, build a hose and live there, build a business and make money, etc. Speculators have someone other than speculators to sell to. Other then a little bit of criminal activity this isn't really the case with bit coin.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:38 AM   #872
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Actually, I stand corrected. The net zero is higher, because we need to subtract mining costs. There are estimates that total bitmining costs so far is around 20% of market cap, so breakeven for winners equalling losers is arguably around $5200.
good point. After the miners take out their share, the amount of real $ left for speculators is ALWAYS going to be less than what the speculators put in in the first place.
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Old 6th January 2021, 11:41 AM   #873
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
While there may be a +ve book value, in terms of actual money speculators have spent more real $ than they have taken out and there is no way for one speculator to get any real money out without someone else putting real money in.

This is different from something like the real-estate market where the owner can rent it out, build a hose and live there, build a business and make money, etc. Speculators have someone other than speculators to sell to. Other then a little bit of criminal activity this isn't really the case with bit coin.
Yes I guess I'm including unrealized gains as 'winning' even if the speculator has not pocketed the profit yet.
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Old 6th January 2021, 12:19 PM   #874
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Yes I guess I'm including unrealized gains as 'winning' even if the speculator has not pocketed the profit yet.
That's why it's sometimes compared to a Ponzi Scheme. There are people taking money and profits out, but the only source of new money flowing in is coming from would be "investors". regardless of book value it's impossible for everyone who has bought bitcoin to get all their initial investment money back.
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Old 6th January 2021, 12:30 PM   #875
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I'm confused because it seems like we're aggressively agreeing. I have no idea what special pleading you are referring to.

I'm one of those 'buy and hold' people (refer to my anecdote in an earlier post about getting mine at a bitcoin faucet 10 years ago) - but I consider it the same as if I bet on black 11, not congratulating myself that it's a reward for some sort of ability or knowledge.
How can you compare speculating on bitcoin to betting on black 11 and then conclude that we are agressively agreeing?

Everyone knows that if you consistently bet on black 11 you will lose eventually because of the house edge. Bitcoin's 12 year price history shows the opposite to be the case. It may not be the case indefinitely but it has never been a black 11.
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Old 6th January 2021, 12:36 PM   #876
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
That's why it's sometimes compared to a Ponzi Scheme. There are people taking money and profits out, but the only source of new money flowing in is coming from would be "investors". regardless of book value it's impossible for everyone who has bought bitcoin to get all their initial investment money back.
This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.

When the price finally peaks and starts tumbling these same people will say "I told you bitcoin is a bad investment. The price will NEVER be this high again".

Rinse and repeat.
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Old 6th January 2021, 12:45 PM   #877
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.
The actual "well worn pattern" in this thread is people pointing to real problems with bitcoin, along with real supporting facts to which psionl0 responds with hand waving dishonesty and innuendo.
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Old 6th January 2021, 01:18 PM   #878
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I wonder .. lot of BTC will never be cashed out. Keys are forgotten, and some people die while hodling, and passing BTC to heirs might be problematic, due the anonymity.
So maybe BTC is just sharing the money we don't really need at the moment ? :-D
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Old 6th January 2021, 01:37 PM   #879
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.

When the price finally peaks and starts tumbling these same people will say "I told you bitcoin is a bad investment. The price will NEVER be this high again".

Rinse and repeat.
Well, it's definitely not anything I've ever said, so I am concerned you're arguing against an imaginary me.

What I'm saying - for the record - is that it's something with little or no intrinsic value, so its pricing is proportional to popularity rather than yields, and therefore at the mercy of a secondary market, and unpredictable. It could go down to zero. Or not. And in the meantime will fluctuate unpredictably. Its value cannot be analyzed because it does not reflect significant external utility.

There is money to be made in arbitrage and speculation (which is where my analogy to black eleven comes in), there's no doubt about that, but nothing special about it vs, say, beanie babies.

At the moment, if I was to guess on the current blip, it's because there's only so much surplus asset money to go around, and the market is looking dodgy, real estate is iffy with people moving to the suburbs or maybe not, so BTC is a reasonable Plan C for those who share the mindset that it's not beanie babies.
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Old 6th January 2021, 01:49 PM   #880
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I wonder .. lot of BTC will never be cashed out.
Assuming there is no expansion, my expectation is that the life cycle of BTC is that eventually there will be none left in circulation. Timeframes are debatable, and of course, expansion is always an option.



Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Keys are forgotten, and some people die while hodling,
Don't forget destroyed. My friend kept his keys on a USB key that failed. At today's pricepoint, that was a half million dollar USB key.

I have mine engraved on metal and stored in a safety deposit box.


Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
and passing BTC to heirs might be problematic, due the anonymity.
This one, I'm not sure sure I agree with. My heirs have instructions for accessing the BTC wallet the same as they do for my conventional accounts.


Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
So maybe BTC is just sharing the money we don't really need at the moment ? :-D
If you mean, could it be a sink for surplus cash, that's my interpretation of the current runup, yes.
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