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Old 23rd January 2023, 05:51 AM   #3201
MarkCorrigan
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
For the umpteenth time the JAIC report said it was certified seaworthy, which it was. You have constantly relied on that certification to support your various fairy tales of other reasons why the ship sank since, being seaworthy, it couldn't have just failed and sunk on its own. Now this reassessment says that certification ought not to have been issued as the ship was not properly inspected.

I note it was also correct all along that there was no indication of any bombs or torpedoes or ramming or other violent attacks or sabotage.
No no no, if the new report seems to vary from the JAIC in any way that means Vixen is right, Kemo Sabe?
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:08 AM   #3202
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
For the umpteenth time the JAIC report said it was certified seaworthy, which it was. You have constantly relied on that certification to support your various fairy tales of other reasons why the ship sank since, being seaworthy, it couldn't have just failed and sunk on its own. Now this reassessment says that certification ought not to have been issued as the ship was not properly inspected.

I note it was also correct all along that there was no indication of any bombs or torpedoes or ramming or other violent attacks or sabotage.
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.

I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.

I look forward with fascination in finalising this current affairs news once and for all. Some are satisfied with a few lines in a report, others are interested in the bigger picture. Nobody is forced to look at the bigger picture if they are not interested.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:11 AM   #3203
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Originally Posted by MarkCorrigan View Post
No no no, if the new report seems to vary from the JAIC in any way that means Vixen is right, Kemo Sabe?
"How, Tonto?"
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:16 AM   #3204
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.

I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.

I look forward with fascination in finalising this current affairs news once and for all. Some are satisfied with a few lines in a report, others are interested in the bigger picture. Nobody is forced to look at the bigger picture if they are not interested.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:19 AM   #3205
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.

I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.

I look forward with fascination in finalising this current affairs news once and for all. Some are satisfied with a few lines in a report, others are interested in the bigger picture. Nobody is forced to look at the bigger picture if they are not interested.

LOL. The preliminary report makes it perfectly and explicitly clear: the Estonia sank because the poorly-designed and dreadfully-maintained bottom lock of the bow visor failed in rough seas. The Estonia should never have been sailing with the bow visor in such a dangerously poor condition, and it should never have been certified to sail. Furthermore, the report confirms that the damage to the starboard hull was caused when the ship sank and hit the sea bed - the damage clearly matches the rock outcrop on the sea bed.

In other words.... everything that I and others were saying has been validated by the preliminary report; and everything that you were saying has been debunked.

What. A. Surprise.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:24 AM   #3206
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.
You should definitely read the report some day. You'll be amazed.

Quote:
I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.
I imagine you mean photogrammetry rather than cinematography. It's always entertaining to watch you try to gainsay actual experts, with or without armchairs.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:42 AM   #3207
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
LOL. The preliminary report makes it perfectly and explicitly clear: the Estonia sank because the poorly-designed and dreadfully-maintained bottom lock of the bow visor failed in rough seas. The Estonia should never have been sailing with the bow visor in such a dangerously poor condition, and it should never have been certified to sail. Furthermore, the report confirms that the damage to the starboard hull was caused when the ship sank and hit the sea bed - the damage clearly matches the rock outcrop on the sea bed.

In other words.... everything that I and others were saying has been validated by the preliminary report; and everything that you were saying has been debunked.

What. A. Surprise.
Do pay better attention. The report clearly says it is only preliminary and they still have witnesses to interview, as well as other issues.

Half of what you say is inaccurate and not what they said at all.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:49 AM   #3208
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.
Have you even read the report?

Quote:
rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.
Ma'am, you're the armchair pontificator in this scenario.

Quote:
Some are satisfied with a few lines in a report, others are interested in the bigger picture. Nobody is forced to look at the bigger picture if they are not interested.
No, Vixen, you're not the smartest person in the room. No, your "bigger picture" of Swedish submarines leaving "tracks" underwater, or of contraband cesium melting off the bow locks, or of any of the crackpot theories you've embraced over the years has the slightest to do with the grown-ups doing their jobs. You're not some dogged and brilliantly incisive investigator who stuck with it while the professionals were stumped. You're just a lying conspiracy theorist with delusions of grandeur trying to populate her fantasy world.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 07:51 AM   #3209
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Do pay better attention. The report clearly says it is only preliminary and they still have witnesses to interview, as well as other issues.
From your vast experience as a forensic engineer investigating transportation disasters, to what extent must the conclusions in a preliminary report be supported by evidence?
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Old 23rd January 2023, 08:02 AM   #3210
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So it was correct all along that Estonia was not seaworthy. The JAIC said it was seaworthy.
Asked and answered many times.

You have relied many times upon the JAIC's declaration that MS Estonia was seaworthy to prop up your demand that we cannot look to defectiveness of the vessel or negligence in maintenance as causes and therefore must given credence to more exotic possibilities. And now you're trying to spin that to say you must somehow still have been right all along because this one point in the JAIC report has now been challenged by later work. Equivocation is dishonest.

In contrast, your critics have been consistent in reminding you that a seaworthiness certificate is by no means a declaration that a ship is free from deflects. They have consistently pointed out that the JAIC's finding was based simply on the bureaucratic observation that no outstanding mitigation orders remained after its previous inspection, which remains a true fact. However, the practical seaworthiness of the vessel is and was very much in question. The newer preliminary report—which applies different criteria to the determination of seaworthiness—concurs.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 08:22 AM   #3211
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To quote myself from a related thread (with addendum):

Quote:
Front of [poorly maintained and possibly fraudulently, at best negligently certified] boat fell off in storm boat wasn't designed to survive.

Boat sank.

The End.

Shocking.
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Last edited by junkshop; 23rd January 2023 at 08:28 AM.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 08:24 AM   #3212
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
From your vast experience as a forensic engineer investigating transportation disasters, to what extent must the conclusions in a preliminary report be supported by evidence?

I reckon they were only taking wild and unsupported guesses for the preliminary report. Perhaps they were also parroting stuff written on an obscure internet forum...

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Old 23rd January 2023, 09:55 AM   #3213
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC.

Cool - is Jim Cameron making a movie about all this?!!
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Old 23rd January 2023, 10:47 AM   #3214
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
Asked and answered many times.

You have relied many times upon the JAIC's declaration that MS Estonia was seaworthy to prop up your demand that we cannot look to defectiveness of the vessel or negligence in maintenance as causes and therefore must given credence to more exotic possibilities. And now you're trying to spin that to say you must somehow still have been right all along because this one point in the JAIC report has now been challenged by later work. Equivocation is dishonest.

In contrast, your critics have been consistent in reminding you that a seaworthiness certificate is by no means a declaration that a ship is free from deflects. They have consistently pointed out that the JAIC's finding was based simply on the bureaucratic observation that no outstanding mitigation orders remained after its previous inspection, which remains a true fact. However, the practical seaworthiness of the vessel is and was very much in question. The newer preliminary report—which applies different criteria to the determination of seaworthiness—concurs.

Most, if not all, airliners that have crashed due to mechanical failure in the last 75 or so years have had valid certificates of airworthiness. By Vixen's logic, the actual cause of each of those crashes must have been something other than mechanical failure.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 11:04 AM   #3215
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Most, if not all, airliners that have crashed due to mechanical failure in the last 75 or so years have had valid certificates of airworthiness.
A point I've made many, many times in this thread and which has sailed over Vixen's head without comment.

Quote:
By Vixen's logic, the actual cause of each of those crashes must have been something other than mechanical failure.
And in fact many of them can be attributed to such things as pilot error, just as operator error and negligence contributed to the loss of MS Estonia.

The preliminary report seems to emphasize that the JAIC's finding of seaworthiness was an administrative determination only and not a practical determination of its ability to carry passengers safely under some given set of conditions. This is what we've been saying all along.

Vixen is trying to equivocate her earlier citation of the JAIC as authoritative on this point. By straw-manning her critics' position as being required to accept the JAIC findings in all their particulars—and according to her uninformed interpretation—she has attempted to contrive a "gotcha!" moment. Because our goal in her mind is to defend the JAIC at all costs, she can insist that we must accept the ship as "seaworthy" because the JAIC has declared it so (even if her whole point is that the JAIC was wrong). But if another body finds that the purely administrative notice (which we've belabored) was insufficient, then she gets to say JAIC was wrong and that we were wrong for "accepting" their findings in the way she intends to pin on us.

We've never stopped making the point that the JAIC's findings were technically correct on the point of seaworthiness—but that they were administratively performative at best, and that the ship was clearly unseaworthy in all ways that matter. The straw man that says we're beholden to JAIC in every detail has never been my position, at least. And a careful reading of this thread will reveal that I've resisted that every time Vixen has tried to pin it on me.

This particular "gotcha!" strategy is part of every conspiracy theorist's playbook.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 12:19 PM   #3216
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I wish I could say I feel smarter now, but I'll settle for being able to make a basic assumption based on obvious facts.

In 2023, this is a win.
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Old 18th April 2023, 12:56 PM   #3217
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Update:

The bow ramp - which is at the bottom of the Baltic Sea - is to be salvaged for further examination by the latest official panel of the Estonia board.

Quote:
Estonia's bow visor was already salvaged in 1994, not long after the disaster occurred. But the bow ramp, which was behind the visor, remains at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

Discussions have been held as to whether the bow ramp should also be salvaged as it is considered an important piece of the puzzle in the sequence of events in the sinking. And now the government has added 25 million kroner following a request from the National Accident Commission to carry out the work.

Damage to the ramp
The dives are being procured, says Jonas Bäckstrand, and the idea is that they will take place during the early summer.

There is some damage to the ramp that they want to examine, among other things they have been able to see marks in the ramp in the shape of a triangle in photographs that correspond well with how it hit the front car deck
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Old 18th April 2023, 02:37 PM   #3218
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I see you shiver, with anticip...
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Old 18th April 2023, 03:00 PM   #3219
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
I see you shiver, with anticip...
Let's go down where it's damp

And see what's on the <beat> ramp
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Old 18th April 2023, 09:52 PM   #3220
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haha, well done!
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Old 19th April 2023, 11:39 AM   #3221
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
I see you shiver, with anticip...
SAY IT!
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Old 19th April 2023, 05:14 PM   #3222
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Strange how other relevant news has been ignored:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2023-01-23/

Quote:
Jan 23 (Reuters) - A new investigation into the sinking of ferry Estonia that claimed 852 lives in 1994 revealed flaws in its bow visor construction missed during its certification, officials said on Monday.

If necessary examination was carried out, the Estonia-registered ship would not be approved as seaworthy to serve the Tallin-Stockholm route it operated, investigators from Estonia, Finland and Sweden told a news conference in Tallinn.
And then there's this seemingly important piece of information:

Quote:
The holes discovered in the hull were likely caused by the impact on the vessel on the sea bottom, said Rene Arikas, Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau director, rather than have caused the sinking.

"We do know that when she sank, she didn't have bow visor, she didn't have the ramp. But so far we have not found any damages (to the hull before sinking) other than that in the bow area", said Risto Haimila, chief marine safety investigator at the Finnish Safety Investigation Authority.
The Guardian is a little more blunt:

Quote:
The 1994 Estonia ferry disaster that claimed the lives of 852 people was caused by a faulty bow door rather than by a collision or explosion, according to the preliminary findings of an intergovernmental investigation.

Estonian, Finnish and Swedish investigators concluded (pdf) on Monday that Europe’s worst peacetime maritime disaster since the second world war happened after the roll-on, roll-off ferry’s bow shield was wrenched off in heavy seas.
I could have saved them some money on this one.
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Old 24th May 2023, 08:48 AM   #3223
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I'm reading the entire caboodle. Towards the end of part one, in post #4019, Vixen opined

Originally Posted by Vixen
If these two guys who claimed to have climbed down the car deck ramp (in a roaring storm) when they could have simply jumped into the water, did indeed climb down the car ramp, then the car ramp must have been firmly shut in order for them to do so.
Just have a look at the structure of a bow ramp. Pretty easy to clamber up or down or sideways. Its orientation is a bit irrelevant. https://www.macgregor.com/globalasse...sets/50181.pdf Second page.

... and onwards...
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Old 24th May 2023, 12:55 PM   #3224
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Originally Posted by The Common Potato View Post
I'm reading the entire caboodle...
You are very brave.
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Old 24th May 2023, 01:02 PM   #3225
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The question "why?" springs to mind.
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Old 24th May 2023, 02:16 PM   #3226
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Originally Posted by The Common Potato View Post
I'm reading the entire caboodle. Towards the end of part one, in post #4019, Vixen opined



Just have a look at the structure of a bow ramp. Pretty easy to clamber up or down or sideways. Its orientation is a bit irrelevant. https://www.macgregor.com/globalasse...sets/50181.pdf Second page.

... and onwards...
In the dead of night, with the vessel listed at 45º at that stage?

Well, those Estonians were top athletes. As I recall a couple of them did not survive, so bravo to the ones who did.
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Old 24th May 2023, 02:25 PM   #3227
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Old 24th May 2023, 03:02 PM   #3228
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After all the new surveys of the wreck, we're right back where we started. The bow visor was knocked loose, fell off yanking the ramp open, and flooding the cargo deck.

The only new information seems to be the poor design and construction of the bow visor/ clamps/ et al, which the report hinted at, and we (normal people) suspected.

But, if you haven't had enough, the producers of "Chernobyl" (the cool HBO miniseries, not the disaster) have made a series about the Estonia's wreck , and investigation:

https://variety.com/2022/global/glob...wn-1235402098/

Quote:
“It’s a series but we have to understand that it’s not entertainment, it’s not just another thriller action movie,” says Tislar. “It’s a real-life thing, and we have the responsibility of honoring the ones who didn’t survive, even if the focus is on the ones who did survive.”

It’s telling that “Estonia” re-teams Månsson and Passi, who previously worked together on “Chernobyl” which dramatized another European disaster, the 1986 explosion at the Nuclear Power Plant.Månsson, who was a second-unit director on “Chernobyl,” says “Estonia” represents the biggest challenge he’s even taken on.

“I thought ‘Chernobyl’ was technically difficult, but this is way more complicated,” says Månsson. “It’s an ethical and moral minefield.”

While the sinking of the ship is an important part of the show, “Estonia” also spotlights the tentacular probe launched in the aftermath of the tragedy by the Joint Accident Investigation Committee established by Sweden, Estonia and Finland.Showrunner Miikko Oikkonen (“Bordertown,” “Helsinki Syndrome”), who co-wrote the series with Olli Suitiala and Tuomas Hakola, says the starting point of the project was the fact that hundreds of testimonies of survivors and rescuers where finally unclassified.

“When I started to read the final report and went through the material, I realized the investigation itself was even more interesting than the accident,’ says Oikkonen. “It was a power play, a political game between these countries and it involved many conflicts of interests.”

The probe went on for nearly four years, and was deserted by all but one member, the young Henri Peltonen, who is one of the series’ protagonists. Inspired by a real character, Peltonen was determined to uncover the truth and penned the final report.

“The investigation was an equally horrible experience, and it was metaphorically also sinking. These two storylines are mirroring each other,” says showrunner Miikko Oikkonen (“Bordertown,” “Helsinki Syndrome”) who co-wrote the series with Olli Suitiala and Tuomas Hakola.

“When they started the investigation, they said that it is going to take two weeks, then maximum two months,” says Oikkonen. By the time the final report was published three and a half years later, five of the six-people on the board were gone – they either died or resigned.


You can find it on Amazon Prime, HBO Max, and Discovery Plus...If that's your thing...
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Old 24th May 2023, 03:02 PM   #3229
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If those two survivors did climb down the car ramp, as exposed when the bow visor detached - and they have no reason to misstate their own experience - then it proves the ca ramp door was shut. If it was shut, how did water flood in to sink it so rapidly?





Follows is what the ridges on the car ramp door look like. Sure, they could form a foothold, although a grip with the hands might be difficult.



close up of car ramp door underwater



close up 2 car ramp door underwater
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Old 24th May 2023, 05:09 PM   #3230
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Here we go again...
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Old 24th May 2023, 08:01 PM   #3231
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
If those two survivors did climb down the car ramp, as exposed when the bow visor detached - and they have no reason to misstate their own experience - then it proves the ca ramp door was shut. If it was shut, how did water flood in to sink it so rapidly?

[...snip...]
How the heck does how they survived prove the car ramp was shut? Even your own citation above says that if they did climb down the outer part of the ramp it may also contradict their statements that the ramp could have been in the closed position. There is certainly a good reason for people to be mistaken in stressful, traumatic and life threatening situations. Simply that they are people. It’s kind of self defeating when your own citation directly counters your mere assertion of “proves”.

Just off the top of my head, the ramp may have detached somewhat and been pushed in by the pounding waves that infiltrated the ship forming the grid structure in a more accessible area, a bit inside the ship as opposed to outside extremity as it would have been if closed, that they then climbed down.
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Old 25th May 2023, 12:34 AM   #3232
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The ramp is on a hinge. The ramp was damaged when the bow visor ripped it open. The ocean, combined with the 45 degree list, and that pesky gravity means that ramp swung open and shut a few times. It was shut during the first survey after the sinking, but in this new survey the ramp has fallen open - again - due damage, currents, and that pesky gravity.

I love that you post pictures showing severe damage to the ramp from pounding into the bow during the storm (you can tell from the rust it's from the night of the sinking).
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Old 25th May 2023, 12:47 AM   #3233
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Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from? The quote describes the ship lying on its side at a list of "90° and more". Not 45°.

I have no problem with the idea that the sea waves and indeed gravity could have swung the untethered ramp shut again when the ship was lying on its side.

A 45° list would make that unlikely but that's not the scenario the survivors described.

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Old 25th May 2023, 02:35 AM   #3234
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from?

Perhaps it was listing to port.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...1#post13681911
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Old 25th May 2023, 02:42 AM   #3235
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Originally Posted by The Man View Post
How the heck does how they survived prove the car ramp was shut? Even your own citation above says that if they did climb down the outer part of the ramp it may also contradict their statements that the ramp could have been in the closed position. There is certainly a good reason for people to be mistaken in stressful, traumatic and life threatening situations. Simply that they are people. It’s kind of self defeating when your own citation directly counters your mere assertion of “proves”.

Just off the top of my head, the ramp may have detached somewhat and been pushed in by the pounding waves that infiltrated the ship forming the grid structure in a more accessible area, a bit inside the ship as opposed to outside extremity as it would have been if closed, that they then climbed down.
It is the JAIC's case that the car ramp door detached the same time as the bow visor as they shared the same master hinge structure. The JAIC modifies this to say that the top of the car ramp door was open about 30 degrees at the top and that is how the water came in to overwhelm the ship and capsize it. (However, Margus Kurm's expedition last summer claims the inner doors of the car deck appeared to be firmly shut from a photographic image of two of them, when according to JAIC, they should have been breached for water to overwhelm the electrics.)
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Old 25th May 2023, 02:45 AM   #3236
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Originally Posted by Axxman300 View Post
The ramp is on a hinge. The ramp was damaged when the bow visor ripped it open. The ocean, combined with the 45 degree list, and that pesky gravity means that ramp swung open and shut a few times. It was shut during the first survey after the sinking, but in this new survey the ramp has fallen open - again - due damage, currents, and that pesky gravity.

I love that you post pictures showing severe damage to the ramp from pounding into the bow during the storm (you can tell from the rust it's from the night of the sinking).
No. When a ship or any item is submerged beneath water the laws of gravity do not remain the same (buoyancy) and nor do doors swing open and shut, due to water pressure. So imagine a surge of seawater enters the car deck. How then would the open car ramp now swing shut 'a few times'?
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Old 25th May 2023, 02:57 AM   #3237
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from? The quote describes the ship lying on its side at a list of "90° and more". Not 45°.

I have no problem with the idea that the sea waves and indeed gravity could have swung the untethered ramp shut again when the ship was lying on its side.

A 45° list would make that unlikely but that's not the scenario the survivors described.
It is generally accepted that a list of more than 60º degrees will cause a cruise ship to capsize completely, so it is unlikely to have happened at 90 degrees when capsize was certain (turning upside down).

Here's what it might look like at 70º



The two Estonians survivors who say the climbed down the car ramp door (although they do not describe it in those terms, they do however, specify the front of the vessel [the bow] are Antti Arak and Ain-Alar Juhanson. The two figures on the right climbing down are as illustrated here:



The two Estonians at the car ramp

As you can see, the car ramp door would need to be reasonably shut for it to be accessible to someone climbing down it.
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Old 25th May 2023, 05:11 AM   #3238
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post


Still using quality sources, l see.

Odd that you didn't provide any citation.
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Old 25th May 2023, 06:55 AM   #3239
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It is generally accepted that a list of more than 60º degrees will cause a cruise ship to capsize completely...
No.
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Old 25th May 2023, 07:05 AM   #3240
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
No. When a ship or any item is submerged beneath water the laws of gravity do not remain the same (buoyancy) and nor do doors swing open and shut, due to water pressure. So imagine a surge of seawater enters the car deck. How then would the open car ramp now swing shut 'a few times'?
You realize that we have ample evidence of how incompetent you are at physics, especially buoyancy.

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