|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
23rd January 2023, 05:51 AM | #3201 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,895
|
|
23rd January 2023, 07:08 AM | #3202 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
The JAIC at no point looked into the issue of anything other than the bow visor.
I for one welcome the new inquiry looking at all aspects and actually physical examination of the vessel, especially with the advancement in underwater cinematography and 3-D model building, rather than armchair pontification that was the JAIC. I look forward with fascination in finalising this current affairs news once and for all. Some are satisfied with a few lines in a report, others are interested in the bigger picture. Nobody is forced to look at the bigger picture if they are not interested. |
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
23rd January 2023, 07:11 AM | #3203 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
23rd January 2023, 07:16 AM | #3204 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 57,667
|
|
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
|
23rd January 2023, 07:19 AM | #3205 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 20,637
|
LOL. The preliminary report makes it perfectly and explicitly clear: the Estonia sank because the poorly-designed and dreadfully-maintained bottom lock of the bow visor failed in rough seas. The Estonia should never have been sailing with the bow visor in such a dangerously poor condition, and it should never have been certified to sail. Furthermore, the report confirms that the damage to the starboard hull was caused when the ship sank and hit the sea bed - the damage clearly matches the rock outcrop on the sea bed. In other words.... everything that I and others were saying has been validated by the preliminary report; and everything that you were saying has been debunked. What. A. Surprise. |
23rd January 2023, 07:24 AM | #3206 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
|
23rd January 2023, 07:42 AM | #3207 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
23rd January 2023, 07:49 AM | #3208 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
Have you even read the report?
Quote:
Quote:
|
23rd January 2023, 07:51 AM | #3209 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
|
23rd January 2023, 08:02 AM | #3210 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
Asked and answered many times.
You have relied many times upon the JAIC's declaration that MS Estonia was seaworthy to prop up your demand that we cannot look to defectiveness of the vessel or negligence in maintenance as causes and therefore must given credence to more exotic possibilities. And now you're trying to spin that to say you must somehow still have been right all along because this one point in the JAIC report has now been challenged by later work. Equivocation is dishonest. In contrast, your critics have been consistent in reminding you that a seaworthiness certificate is by no means a declaration that a ship is free from deflects. They have consistently pointed out that the JAIC's finding was based simply on the bureaucratic observation that no outstanding mitigation orders remained after its previous inspection, which remains a true fact. However, the practical seaworthiness of the vessel is and was very much in question. The newer preliminary report—which applies different criteria to the determination of seaworthiness—concurs. |
23rd January 2023, 08:22 AM | #3211 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Behind you
Posts: 1,991
|
To quote myself from a related thread (with addendum):
Quote:
Shocking. |
23rd January 2023, 08:24 AM | #3212 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 20,637
|
|
23rd January 2023, 09:55 AM | #3213 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 20,637
|
|
23rd January 2023, 10:47 AM | #3214 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA
Posts: 6,119
|
|
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." --Carl Schurz |
|
23rd January 2023, 11:04 AM | #3215 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
A point I've made many, many times in this thread and which has sailed over Vixen's head without comment.
Quote:
The preliminary report seems to emphasize that the JAIC's finding of seaworthiness was an administrative determination only and not a practical determination of its ability to carry passengers safely under some given set of conditions. This is what we've been saying all along. Vixen is trying to equivocate her earlier citation of the JAIC as authoritative on this point. By straw-manning her critics' position as being required to accept the JAIC findings in all their particulars—and according to her uninformed interpretation—she has attempted to contrive a "gotcha!" moment. Because our goal in her mind is to defend the JAIC at all costs, she can insist that we must accept the ship as "seaworthy" because the JAIC has declared it so (even if her whole point is that the JAIC was wrong). But if another body finds that the purely administrative notice (which we've belabored) was insufficient, then she gets to say JAIC was wrong and that we were wrong for "accepting" their findings in the way she intends to pin on us. We've never stopped making the point that the JAIC's findings were technically correct on the point of seaworthiness—but that they were administratively performative at best, and that the ship was clearly unseaworthy in all ways that matter. The straw man that says we're beholden to JAIC in every detail has never been my position, at least. And a careful reading of this thread will reveal that I've resisted that every time Vixen has tried to pin it on me. This particular "gotcha!" strategy is part of every conspiracy theorist's playbook. |
23rd January 2023, 12:19 PM | #3216 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California Coast
Posts: 6,863
|
I wish I could say I feel smarter now, but I'll settle for being able to make a basic assumption based on obvious facts.
In 2023, this is a win. |
__________________
Disingenuous Piranha |
|
18th April 2023, 12:56 PM | #3217 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
Update:
The bow ramp - which is at the bottom of the Baltic Sea - is to be salvaged for further examination by the latest official panel of the Estonia board.
Quote:
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
18th April 2023, 02:37 PM | #3218 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Behind you
Posts: 1,991
|
I see you shiver, with anticip...
|
18th April 2023, 03:00 PM | #3219 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
|
18th April 2023, 09:52 PM | #3220 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Hard Corvallis Oregon
Posts: 1,944
|
haha, well done!
|
__________________
"May I interest you in some coconut milk?" ~Akhenaten Wallabe Esq |
|
19th April 2023, 11:39 AM | #3221 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,215
|
|
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
|
19th April 2023, 05:14 PM | #3222 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California Coast
Posts: 6,863
|
Strange how other relevant news has been ignored:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2023-01-23/
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
__________________
Disingenuous Piranha |
|
24th May 2023, 08:48 AM | #3223 |
Muse
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: The Scunthorpe Problem
Posts: 695
|
I'm reading the entire caboodle. Towards the end of part one, in post #4019, Vixen opined
Originally Posted by Vixen
... and onwards... |
24th May 2023, 12:55 PM | #3224 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Wales
Posts: 31,398
|
|
24th May 2023, 01:02 PM | #3225 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,895
|
The question "why?" springs to mind.
|
24th May 2023, 02:16 PM | #3226 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
24th May 2023, 02:25 PM | #3227 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 13,833
|
Had to summon the Candyman, didn't you.
|
__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
|
24th May 2023, 03:02 PM | #3228 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California Coast
Posts: 6,863
|
After all the new surveys of the wreck, we're right back where we started. The bow visor was knocked loose, fell off yanking the ramp open, and flooding the cargo deck.
The only new information seems to be the poor design and construction of the bow visor/ clamps/ et al, which the report hinted at, and we (normal people) suspected. But, if you haven't had enough, the producers of "Chernobyl" (the cool HBO miniseries, not the disaster) have made a series about the Estonia's wreck , and investigation: https://variety.com/2022/global/glob...wn-1235402098/
Quote:
You can find it on Amazon Prime, HBO Max, and Discovery Plus...If that's your thing... |
__________________
Disingenuous Piranha |
|
24th May 2023, 03:02 PM | #3229 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
If those two survivors did climb down the car ramp, as exposed when the bow visor detached - and they have no reason to misstate their own experience - then it proves the ca ramp door was shut. If it was shut, how did water flood in to sink it so rapidly?
Follows is what the ridges on the car ramp door look like. Sure, they could form a foothold, although a grip with the hands might be difficult. close up of car ramp door underwater close up 2 car ramp door underwater |
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
24th May 2023, 05:09 PM | #3230 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Behind you
Posts: 1,991
|
Here we go again...
|
24th May 2023, 08:01 PM | #3231 |
Unbanned zombie poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Poughkeepsie, NY
Posts: 18,384
|
How the heck does how they survived prove the car ramp was shut? Even your own citation above says that if they did climb down the outer part of the ramp it may also contradict their statements that the ramp could have been in the closed position. There is certainly a good reason for people to be mistaken in stressful, traumatic and life threatening situations. Simply that they are people. It’s kind of self defeating when your own citation directly counters your mere assertion of “proves”.
Just off the top of my head, the ramp may have detached somewhat and been pushed in by the pounding waves that infiltrated the ship forming the grid structure in a more accessible area, a bit inside the ship as opposed to outside extremity as it would have been if closed, that they then climbed down. |
__________________
BRAINZZZZZZZZ |
|
25th May 2023, 12:34 AM | #3232 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California Coast
Posts: 6,863
|
The ramp is on a hinge. The ramp was damaged when the bow visor ripped it open. The ocean, combined with the 45 degree list, and that pesky gravity means that ramp swung open and shut a few times. It was shut during the first survey after the sinking, but in this new survey the ramp has fallen open - again - due damage, currents, and that pesky gravity.
I love that you post pictures showing severe damage to the ramp from pounding into the bow during the storm (you can tell from the rust it's from the night of the sinking). |
__________________
Disingenuous Piranha |
|
25th May 2023, 12:47 AM | #3233 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from? The quote describes the ship lying on its side at a list of "90° and more". Not 45°.
I have no problem with the idea that the sea waves and indeed gravity could have swung the untethered ramp shut again when the ship was lying on its side. A 45° list would make that unlikely but that's not the scenario the survivors described. |
25th May 2023, 02:35 AM | #3234 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 38,373
|
|
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
|
25th May 2023, 02:42 AM | #3235 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
It is the JAIC's case that the car ramp door detached the same time as the bow visor as they shared the same master hinge structure. The JAIC modifies this to say that the top of the car ramp door was open about 30 degrees at the top and that is how the water came in to overwhelm the ship and capsize it. (However, Margus Kurm's expedition last summer claims the inner doors of the car deck appeared to be firmly shut from a photographic image of two of them, when according to JAIC, they should have been breached for water to overwhelm the electrics.)
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
25th May 2023, 02:45 AM | #3236 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
No. When a ship or any item is submerged beneath water the laws of gravity do not remain the same (buoyancy) and nor do doors swing open and shut, due to water pressure. So imagine a surge of seawater enters the car deck. How then would the open car ramp now swing shut 'a few times'?
|
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
25th May 2023, 02:57 AM | #3237 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 34,989
|
It is generally accepted that a list of more than 60º degrees will cause a cruise ship to capsize completely, so it is unlikely to have happened at 90 degrees when capsize was certain (turning upside down).
Here's what it might look like at 70º The two Estonians survivors who say the climbed down the car ramp door (although they do not describe it in those terms, they do however, specify the front of the vessel [the bow] are Antti Arak and Ain-Alar Juhanson. The two figures on the right climbing down are as illustrated here: The two Estonians at the car ramp As you can see, the car ramp door would need to be reasonably shut for it to be accessible to someone climbing down it. |
__________________
who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
|
25th May 2023, 05:11 AM | #3238 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Behind you
Posts: 1,991
|
|
25th May 2023, 06:55 AM | #3239 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
|
25th May 2023, 07:05 AM | #3240 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The great American West
Posts: 24,911
|
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|