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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , political speculation

View Poll Results: Will trump be re-elected?
Yes 28 14.51%
No 80 41.45%
Don't know, but I hope not 82 42.49%
Don't know, but I hope he does 3 1.55%
Voters: 193. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 13th February 2017, 12:29 PM   #1
MrFliop
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Will Trump be re-elected?

Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.

Last edited by MrFliop; 13th February 2017 at 12:31 PM.
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:30 PM   #2
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I'm thinking probably not.
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:33 PM   #3
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You've left out the "On Planet X, he'll cancel the election and declare himself POTUS for Life" conspiracy theory option.
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:40 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.
A war can turn that around, especially if the Muslim horde attacks first. You all better rally around the flag.
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:43 PM   #5
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I voted No but if the dems run Clinton again, or another candidate as horrible, then Trump may win reelection...
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:47 PM   #6
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There was no good reason to elect him in the first place.
There will be no reason to do so again.

So I guess he has 2020 in the bag.
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Old 13th February 2017, 12:59 PM   #7
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Every prediction I've made about Trump has proven wrong.
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Old 13th February 2017, 01:04 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
Every prediction I've made about Trump has proven wrong.
Well, I dunno. Did you predict he'd be an awful president and an even worse human being?

Those are still in play, obviously.
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Old 13th February 2017, 01:10 PM   #9
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I think he'll be out by April 1. No foolin'!
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Old 13th February 2017, 01:12 PM   #10
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Possibly. I'll do what I can to wreck his presidency, but I could see him going for 8 years...
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Old 13th February 2017, 01:19 PM   #11
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Sitting presidents in elections since 1952 are 7-3. Winners: Eisenhower, Johnson (not a reelection, but he was the sitting president), Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush (Jr) and Obama. Losers: Ford (not a reelection but he was the sitting president), Carter and Bush (Sr). If you count reelections only, the sitting presidents are 6-2.
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Old 13th February 2017, 01:22 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
Well, I dunno. Did you predict he'd be an awful president and an even worse human being?

Those are still in play, obviously.
He's definitely off to the worst start. Although, if he lives to the end of the week, he'll beat Wm. Harrison.
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Old 13th February 2017, 09:31 PM   #13
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He has about two years to do his evil deeds. So has Paul Ryan. We must not completely hold him back from messing up. That way the second 2 years nothing much will happen at all. Maybe he will have a health crisis as he cannot do anything much more then.

After two years the house will go some 30 seats in the Democrat direction so we don't need to worry about Ryan.

Pence will run as the 2020 candidate. Trump will collapse and make some excuses after he recovers enough.
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Old 13th February 2017, 10:55 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.
I'm hoping to see him burn in hell ASAP, So, no, I do not expect it to be re-elected. Even it's most ardent **** licking ******* sucking voters surely cannot be stupid enough after (hopefully much less) 4 years of his stupidity, evil, maliciousness,etc./ad inf.........to still support him!!!!!
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Old 13th February 2017, 11:12 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.
Way too soon to tell.

I think David Frum laid out a persuasive account of how he could get re-elected after a popular first term. And by the way, when it comes to popular you only need to be popular enough. You can be hated and despised by a large section of the population and still get re-elected. In fact the hatred he gets from some segments of the population may make him stronger. The problem I see in a lot of protest against Trump is that it isn't principled opposition to his views but the kind of identity politics "virtue signaling" and preaching to the choir that probably made people vote for Trump in the first place. Will any rhetoric from self-proclaimed "nasty women" or BLM or John Oliver get people to shift their vote from Trump? I don't think so. Will mooning Trump Tower or violently protesting Milo Yannopolous or punching neo-nazis on the street take votes from Trump? I don't think so.

It comes down to whether the Democrats (other parties are simply irrelevant or in the way) can run somebody with a positive attractive message. At the moment, only Bernie Sanders seems interested in doing that - because he was campaigning on principle in the general election. Others seem to have one strategy which is to hope that Trump makes such a mess of things that he could not possibly win enough votes in the next election. I believe this is the sole existing strategy.
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Old 13th February 2017, 11:19 PM   #16
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He's done by 2018.
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Old 13th February 2017, 11:29 PM   #17
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Trump wins re-election in 2020. In part due to the the reasons Frum outlined. Also look for Stein to run again in 2020 and will receive a ton of "support" (and ready-made conspiracy theories to throw at who ever the Dem nominee is) from Trump, Putin, several far-right populist leaders in Europe, and their supporters. She is too good a useful idiot to not play a role in re-electing Trump.
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Old 13th February 2017, 11:38 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
There was no good reason to elect him in the first place.
There will be no reason to do so again.

So I guess he has 2020 in the bag.
Right.
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Old 13th February 2017, 11:57 PM   #19
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I've also been quite poor at Trump-related predictions, so I'm going with a very enthusiastic "Yes!"
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Old 14th February 2017, 12:02 AM   #20
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Totally will I think.
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Old 14th February 2017, 01:45 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.
Ivanka will stand on the Trump ticket, be the first female POTUS and get re-elected.
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Old 14th February 2017, 01:54 AM   #22
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I don't think he could run again after the impeachment and the stroke.
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Old 14th February 2017, 02:16 AM   #23
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I guess Ivanka will have a good chance in 2028: after all, her father made the post of President hereditary in his last term in office.
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:19 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by fishbob View Post
I don't think he could run again after the impeachment and the stroke.
The stroke might occur first.
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:31 AM   #25
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I'm telling you all right now, Trump will be re-elected.

Believe it, and remember the lesson of everyone mocking me when I said confidently that he'd win this time.
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:52 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
I'm telling you all right now, Trump will be re-elected.

Believe it, and remember the lesson of everyone mocking me when I said confidently that he'd win this time.
And if he doesn't get re-elected? Does that mean calling it right this time was just luck?
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:55 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
And if he doesn't get re-elected? Does that mean calling it right this time was just luck?
No, it means that the election fraud was effective this time around
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:56 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
And if he doesn't get re-elected? Does that mean calling it right this time was just luck?
I was more confident about his win this time than I am about 2020, I'll admit.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:30 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by fishbob View Post
I don't think he could run again after the impeachment and the stroke.
I do hope both occur - real soon, of course. With Pense going about the same time.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:12 AM   #30
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No.

Because I don't believe he'll be on the GOP's ticket in 2020.

(I have a feeling that the Dems are going to win the house and senate and he'll be impeached)
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:17 AM   #31
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I predict he will not run in 2024.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:19 AM   #32
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To me, Trump's reelection depends on a few things.
  • How do those working class voters, especially in the rust belt, feel about there economic situation in 2019 (since perception is everything in politics, these people need to feel their situation is improving whether it actually is or not would be a discussion)
  • Do the Democrats nominate someone with as many negatives as Hillary

I bring up the first bullet because it seems that if Hillary and the Democrats were able to have any appeal to these voters, Hillary would be in the White House. I also think that these working class voters were not loving Trump and their support is thin. Trump cannot alienate any of his voters in the next 4 years or he loses (unless the Democrats nominate an abysmal candidate which cannot also be ruled out).
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:51 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by seayakin View Post
To me, Trump's reelection depends on a few things.
  • How do those working class voters, especially in the rust belt, feel about there economic situation in 2019 (since perception is everything in politics, these people need to feel their situation is improving whether it actually is or not would be a discussion)
  • Do the Democrats nominate someone with as many negatives as Hillary

I bring up the first bullet because it seems that if Hillary and the Democrats were able to have any appeal to these voters, Hillary would be in the White House. I also think that these working class voters were not loving Trump and their support is thin. Trump cannot alienate any of his voters in the next 4 years or he loses (unless the Democrats nominate an abysmal candidate which cannot also be ruled out).
I'm sure he can make plenty of people happy with lots of deficit spending, tax cuts and public works.

Sure the national debt will rise from, what 20 trillion dollars to 21 or 22 trillion dollars, maybe a few more trillion, but it's hardly his fault that he gets to begin with such a deficit.

The Republicans in Congress won't like it, but their fortunes are tied to Trump. If deficit spending makes Trump popular with their constituents then they won't dare try to impeach him. We know they are way too spineless to stand up to him (to remind you these were the people who called him crazy, racist, unfit for office and unfit to be near the nuclear codes, a cancer on American politics and society when they thought he couldn't win the Republican nomination and then endorsed him for president when he did, or came running to him for scraps even after he insulted them professionally and personally and tweeted unflattering pictures of their wives and called them losers etc...)

I am pretty sure there will be no impeachment unless the Republican voting public turn against him and he will do his best to throw pork their way to keep them happy.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:38 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Dumb All Over View Post
I predict he will not run in 2024.
He can barely run now.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:45 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
He can barely run now.
He runs pretty good, so good in fact he won the Presidency.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:49 AM   #36
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This is the US, he probably will win re-election.

Scwarzenegger won twice in California, as a republican. People pretty much pick the name on the ballot they recognize.
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Old 14th February 2017, 11:16 AM   #37
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We will be past Peak Trump and he will have no path to 270
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Old 14th February 2017, 11:29 AM   #38
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I wonder how much demographic shift will play re: the outcome.

Another variable that could work for, against, or come out a wash: Trump fatigue.
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Old 14th February 2017, 11:29 AM   #39
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Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.

Like George W., he's treating the security briefings entirely too lightly. Justified or not, failing to act on Clinton-era intelligence is considered by some to be one of the contributing factors to the 9/11 terror attacks. If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.

He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them. Anyone hoping the GOP will impeach him is living in a fantasy land. They'll probably try to contain the damage he does to their brand but in the end, a powerful populist leader typically leads to more power for his party.

The real questions in my mind are not if Trump will be a two-termer. What I wonder about is:

Will Trump get a constitutional amendment passed to remove the POTUS term limit and allow himself to run for a third term?

Will Bannon be able to continue dancing the line between white supremacist ideologies and "I can't be racist, I'm a Jew!" to avoid being targeted for assassination by the more overtly NAZI portions of the Alt-Right? While the Alt-Right turning aginst him and successfully assassinating him is unlikely, it's still close enough to the realm of possibility that Bannon would be a fool to not prepare for the contingency.
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Old 14th February 2017, 11:35 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.

Like George W., he's treating the security briefings entirely too lightly. Justified or not, failing to act on Clinton-era intelligence is considered by some to be one of the contributing factors to the 9/11 terror attacks. If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.

He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them. Anyone hoping the GOP will impeach him is living in a fantasy land. They'll probably try to contain the damage he does to their brand but in the end, a powerful populist leader typically leads to more power for his party.

The real questions in my mind are not if Trump will be a two-termer. What I wonder about is:

Will Trump get a constitutional amendment passed to remove the POTUS term limit and allow himself to run for a third term?

Will Bannon be able to continue dancing the line between white supremacist ideologies and "I can't be racist, I'm a Jew!" to avoid being targeted for assassination by the more overtly NAZI portions of the Alt-Right? While the Alt-Right turning aginst him and successfully assassinating him is unlikely, it's still close enough to the realm of possibility that Bannon would be a fool to not prepare for the contingency.
You have totally lost faith in Democracy in the US, haven't you?
I just don't think the American people are as dumb or willing to give up their freedom as you think there are. Some desperate voters in the Rust Belt States made a bad decision;I don't think that is cause for basically indulging in despair porn.
And this verges on Conspriacy Theory thinking.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.

Last edited by dudalb; 14th February 2017 at 11:40 AM.
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