[Merged] Bitcoin - Part 3 - Page 84

The Don · 21st March 2023, 03:43 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now.
This is a purely technical view.

When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.

The_Animus · 21st March 2023, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.

I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.

Samson · 21st March 2023, 08:35 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.

Yes but declined 12.5%

Samson · 21st March 2023, 08:37 AM

Originally Posted by The_Animus

I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.

Declined 12.5% which I consider a decline worth trading (22k to 19.5k).

Samson · 21st March 2023, 08:49 AM

The true purpose of technical analysis is to predict a market with no knowledge of the underlying fundamentals, and there was a simple algorithm in that case. Bitcoin is a good technical market, partly because the pundits range from zero to half infinity in their longer term predictions. Not many markets are in that category.

Samson · 21st March 2023, 09:05 AM

In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.

The Don · 21st March 2023, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

Yes but declined 12.5%

It did, but you said:

Quote:

...are set for a massive decline

A brief 12.5% dip isn't a massive decline, especially in the case of something as volatile as Bitcoin.

If your TA is that effective, go off and make your hundreds of millions of dollars, don't waste time posting here and certainly don't give away even the merest hint of how your spectacular wealth was obtained.

The Don · 21st March 2023, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.

You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery.

If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?

Samson · 21st March 2023, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery.

If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?

With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.

The Don · 21st March 2023, 10:22 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.

Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said:

Quote:

Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now.
This is a purely technical view.

If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.

Samson · 21st March 2023, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said:

If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.

Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then.
Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?

ChrisBFRPKY · 21st March 2023, 04:08 PM

I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.

Samson · Yesterday, 02:54 AM

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.

Do you think the 2.5k swing I particularised with specificity could have been helpful to you if on thread?

The Don · Today, 03:28 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then.

In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful.

Originally Posted by Samson

Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?

It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.

Samson · Today, 03:44 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful.

It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.

It is of no consequence how I might trade, but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.

The Don · Today, 04:29 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

It is of no consequence how I might trade,

True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is.

Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA.

Originally Posted by Samson

but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.

How would one do that ?

Suddenly · Today, 06:17 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is.

Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA.

Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls.

From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy.

I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.

The Don · Today, 07:07 AM

Originally Posted by Suddenly

Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls.

From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy.

If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself.

I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed.

Originally Posted by Suddenly

I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.

Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.

Suddenly · Today, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself.

He might have an equity position. Who knows. It's generally best to not gamble with your own money though. Having backing both reduces personal risk and having a larger bankroll means larger bets and in some cases more money than you get on your own. What exploits he finds are probably going to not last so even more important to get the money down quick.

Quote:

I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed.

He might have been getting paid to try for all I know. Or in the CIA. If I had to pick a guy to try it would have been this guy. It's hard to explain discussing poker analysis with him without getting into religious terms. There were a lot of traders in that group and it's not hard to imagine how someone would want to back this guy.

Quote:

Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.

It's wild how many people don't grasp that concept. Also unfortunate because understanding that would rid us of a lot of scammers.

21st March 2023, 08:30 AM	#3322
The_Animus Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 3,354	Originally Posted by The Don When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA. Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash. I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.
The_Animus Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 3,354	__________________ Don't feed the trolls. Just ignore them.

21st March 2023, 08:37 AM	#3324
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by The_Animus I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way. Declined 12.5% which I consider a decline worth trading (22k to 19.5k).
	Last edited by Samson; 21st March 2023 at 08:38 AM.

21st March 2023, 09:05 AM	#3326
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears. I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.
	Last edited by Samson; 21st March 2023 at 09:06 AM.

21st March 2023, 04:08 PM	#3332
ChrisBFRPKY Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 3,909	I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.
ChrisBFRPKY Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 3,909

21st March 2023, 03:43 AM	#3321
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now. This is a purely technical view. When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA. Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.

21st March 2023, 08:35 AM	#3323
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by The Don When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA. Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash. Yes but declined 12.5%

21st March 2023, 08:49 AM	#3325
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	The true purpose of technical analysis is to predict a market with no knowledge of the underlying fundamentals, and there was a simple algorithm in that case. Bitcoin is a good technical market, partly because the pundits range from zero to half infinity in their longer term predictions. Not many markets are in that category.

21st March 2023, 09:47 AM	#3327
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson Yes but declined 12.5% It did, but you said: Quote: ...are set for a massive decline A brief 12.5% dip isn't a massive decline, especially in the case of something as volatile as Bitcoin. If your TA is that effective, go off and make your hundreds of millions of dollars, don't waste time posting here and certainly don't give away even the merest hint of how your spectacular wealth was obtained.

21st March 2023, 09:49 AM	#3328
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears. I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job. You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery. If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?

21st March 2023, 09:57 AM	#3329
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by The Don You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery. If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ? With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.

21st March 2023, 10:22 AM	#3330
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable. Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said: Quote: Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now. This is a purely technical view. If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.

21st March 2023, 10:49 AM	#3331
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by The Don Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said: If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now. Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then. Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?

Yesterday, 02:54 AM	#3333
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though. Do you think the 2.5k swing I particularised with specificity could have been helpful to you if on thread?

Today, 03:28 AM	#3334
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then. In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful. Originally Posted by Samson Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth? It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.

Today, 03:44 AM	#3335
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,359	Originally Posted by The Don In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful. It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do. It is of no consequence how I might trade, but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.

Today, 04:29 AM	#3336
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Samson It is of no consequence how I might trade, True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is. Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA. Originally Posted by Samson but maybe you could turing test that last prediction. How would one do that ?

Today, 06:17 AM	#3337
Suddenly No Punting Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Not In Follansbee Posts: 5,450	Originally Posted by The Don True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is. Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA. Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls. From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy. I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.

Today, 07:07 AM	#3338
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,338	Originally Posted by Suddenly Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls. From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy. If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself. I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed. Originally Posted by Suddenly I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut. Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.

Today, 09:35 AM	#3339
Suddenly No Punting Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Not In Follansbee Posts: 5,450	Originally Posted by The Don If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself. He might have an equity position. Who knows. It's generally best to not gamble with your own money though. Having backing both reduces personal risk and having a larger bankroll means larger bets and in some cases more money than you get on your own. What exploits he finds are probably going to not last so even more important to get the money down quick. Quote: I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed. He might have been getting paid to try for all I know. Or in the CIA. If I had to pick a guy to try it would have been this guy. It's hard to explain discussing poker analysis with him without getting into religious terms. There were a lot of traders in that group and it's not hard to imagine how someone would want to back this guy. Quote: Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop. It's wild how many people don't grasp that concept. Also unfortunate because understanding that would rid us of a lot of scammers.