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Old 21st March 2023, 03:43 AM   #3321
The Don
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now.
This is a purely technical view.
When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
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Old 21st March 2023, 08:30 AM   #3322
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.
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Old 21st March 2023, 08:35 AM   #3323
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.

Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
Yes but declined 12.5%
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Old 21st March 2023, 08:37 AM   #3324
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.
Declined 12.5% which I consider a decline worth trading (22k to 19.5k).

Last edited by Samson; 21st March 2023 at 08:38 AM.
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Old 21st March 2023, 08:49 AM   #3325
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The true purpose of technical analysis is to predict a market with no knowledge of the underlying fundamentals, and there was a simple algorithm in that case. Bitcoin is a good technical market, partly because the pundits range from zero to half infinity in their longer term predictions. Not many markets are in that category.
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Old 21st March 2023, 09:05 AM   #3326
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In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.

Last edited by Samson; 21st March 2023 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 21st March 2023, 09:47 AM   #3327
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Yes but declined 12.5%
It did, but you said:

Quote:
...are set for a massive decline
A brief 12.5% dip isn't a massive decline, especially in the case of something as volatile as Bitcoin.

If your TA is that effective, go off and make your hundreds of millions of dollars, don't waste time posting here and certainly don't give away even the merest hint of how your spectacular wealth was obtained.
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Old 21st March 2023, 09:49 AM   #3328
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.
You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery.

If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?
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Old 21st March 2023, 09:57 AM   #3329
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery.

If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?
With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.
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Old 21st March 2023, 10:22 AM   #3330
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.
Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said:

Quote:
Bitcoin and crypto generally are set for a massive decline along with stocks. About now.
This is a purely technical view.
If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.
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Old 21st March 2023, 10:49 AM   #3331
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said:



If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.
Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then.
Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?
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Old 21st March 2023, 04:08 PM   #3332
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I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.
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Old 22nd March 2023, 02:54 AM   #3333
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.
Do you think the 2.5k swing I particularised with specificity could have been helpful to you if on thread?
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Old 23rd March 2023, 03:28 AM   #3334
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then.
In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?
It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 03:44 AM   #3335
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful.



It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.
It is of no consequence how I might trade, but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 04:29 AM   #3336
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
It is of no consequence how I might trade,
True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is.

Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.
How would one do that ?
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Old 23rd March 2023, 06:17 AM   #3337
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is.

Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA.
Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls.

From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy.

I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 07:07 AM   #3338
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls.

From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy.
If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself.

I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed.

Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.
Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 09:35 AM   #3339
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself.
He might have an equity position. Who knows. It's generally best to not gamble with your own money though. Having backing both reduces personal risk and having a larger bankroll means larger bets and in some cases more money than you get on your own. What exploits he finds are probably going to not last so even more important to get the money down quick.
Quote:


I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed.
He might have been getting paid to try for all I know. Or in the CIA. If I had to pick a guy to try it would have been this guy. It's hard to explain discussing poker analysis with him without getting into religious terms. There were a lot of traders in that group and it's not hard to imagine how someone would want to back this guy.
Quote:


Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.
It's wild how many people don't grasp that concept. Also unfortunate because understanding that would rid us of a lot of scammers.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 05:51 PM   #3340
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Do you think the 2.5k swing I particularised with specificity could have been helpful to you if on thread?
Large swings are almost impossible to catch. I do much better riding the smaller swings multiple times. It's almost impossible to profit when its going sideways which is why it's good to see some action starting. Still premature for trading at this time IMO though.

There is no magic in trading Bitcoin and no matter your system you cannot predict the price. The price rises and falls with the latest news headline of the day making it impossible to predict.
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Old 23rd March 2023, 08:43 PM   #3341
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The Bitcoin true believers will never see reality, I am afraid.
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Old 24th March 2023, 12:00 AM   #3342
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The Bitcoin true believers will never see reality, I am afraid.
What "reality" are they not seeing?
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Old 24th March 2023, 01:03 AM   #3343
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Large swings are almost impossible to catch. I do much better riding the smaller swings multiple times. It's almost impossible to profit when its going sideways which is why it's good to see some action starting. Still premature for trading at this time IMO though.

There is no magic in trading Bitcoin and no matter your system you cannot predict the price. The price rises and falls with the latest news headline of the day making it impossible to predict.
That's what I think but those, like Samson, who believe that they have a working Technical Analysis model think that there are underlying patterns which can be identified and exploited.

Making "predictions" on an internet forum is easy. Apart from a possible lack of credibility, there's no risk. Actually risking your own hard-earned money is a different matter.
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Old 24th March 2023, 07:11 PM   #3344
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's what I think but those, like Samson, who believe that they have a working Technical Analysis model think that there are underlying patterns which can be identified and exploited.

Making "predictions" on an internet forum is easy. Apart from a possible lack of credibility, there's no risk. Actually risking your own hard-earned money is a different matter.
Almost as though the TA thread 8 years ago never happened, into which you contributed substantial industry.
However, since the latest trading idea is being discussed I will show the precise algorithm that generated the 2k profit.
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Old 24th March 2023, 07:30 PM   #3345
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's what I think but those, like Samson, who believe that they have a working Technical Analysis model think that there are underlying patterns which can be identified and exploited.

Making "predictions" on an internet forum is easy. Apart from a possible lack of credibility, there's no risk. Actually risking your own hard-earned money is a different matter.
Agree. I've noticed that every YouTube Bitcoin leverage trader that has a "system" somehow always ends in liquidation. Seems to me they don't really know how to trade in the first place.
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Old 24th March 2023, 07:33 PM   #3346
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Almost as though the TA thread 8 years ago never happened, into which you contributed substantial industry.
However, since the latest trading idea is being discussed I will show the precise algorithm that generated the 2k profit.
Go for it. If you have some extra cash sitting around that you can play with, test your system in real time. It's not a bad thing to experiment with new ideas as long as you hope for the best but expect the worst. Start with $100, if you make money great! If not, well a $100 loss isn't likely to ruin you.
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Old 24th March 2023, 07:55 PM   #3347
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Go for it. If you have some extra cash sitting around that you can play with, test your system in real time. It's not a bad thing to experiment with new ideas as long as you hope for the best but expect the worst. Start with $100, if you make money great! If not, well a $100 loss isn't likely to ruin you.
Its ok, I have traded since 1982 all manner of markets and derivatives with actual $$$.
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Old 24th March 2023, 08:31 PM   #3348
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Almost as though the TA thread 8 years ago never happened, into which you contributed substantial industry.
Do you mean this one? Or this one?

I don't know why you would want to draw attention to these threads. Your predictions turned out to have a lower success rate than those of a dart thrower.
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Old 24th March 2023, 10:32 PM   #3349
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Do you mean this one? Or this one?

I don't know why you would want to draw attention to these threads. Your predictions turned out to have a lower success rate than those of a dart thrower.
I know which threads there were.
Thank you.
And I listed from time to time the results of trades.
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Old 25th March 2023, 12:36 AM   #3350
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Its ok, I have traded since 1982 all manner of markets and derivatives with actual $$$.
In that case, start with $10K or $100K.
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Old 25th March 2023, 01:09 AM   #3351
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Its ok, I have traded since 1982 all manner of markets and derivatives with actual $$$.
Do your techniques work? How much of a return have you made?
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Old 25th March 2023, 04:46 AM   #3352
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
In that case, start with $10K or $100K.
Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Do your techniques work? How much of a return have you made?
Irrelevant.
There is extravagant hubris and no curiosity in your posts.
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Old 25th March 2023, 06:54 AM   #3353
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Do your techniques work? How much of a return have you made?
Irrelevant.
There is extravagant hubris and no curiosity in your posts.
And there is your answer. Samson's track record in those threads are about as good as they are in this thread where he has predicted 1000 of the last 0 permanent collapses of bitcoin.
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Old 25th March 2023, 03:08 PM   #3354
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
And there is your answer. Samson's track record in those threads are about as good as they are in this thread where he has predicted 1000 of the last 0 permanent collapses of bitcoin.
I will go back and collate the declines I predicted.
0 is a value judgement, but direction is real.
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Old 25th March 2023, 03:33 PM   #3355
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Irrelevant.
There is extravagant hubris and no curiosity in your posts.
The premise that your technique works is strongly correlated with the amount of money you can make with it.

I congratulate you, by the way, on managing to put me and psionl0 on the same side of an argument.
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Old 25th March 2023, 04:44 PM   #3356
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
The premise that your technique works is strongly correlated with the amount of money you can make with it.

I congratulate you, by the way, on managing to put me and psionl0 on the same side of an argument.
My post rereads badly I concede.
It is pointless stating this is an argument. Either bitcoin statistically went in the direction forecast with statistical significance or it didn't.
I will collate when I get a chance for my curiosity as well.
Trading success is a separate matter to statistically significant market forecasts, but no doubt you will find disagreement on that too.
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Old 25th March 2023, 05:23 PM   #3357
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So I found the previous time I made a price comment

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...postcount=3142

It was 18k and I said 25k would be margin of error.
It went there exactly, then came back to 19650. It was a purely technical view.

Don't mention it.

And no I have never traded bitcoin.

Last edited by Samson; 25th March 2023 at 05:26 PM.
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Old 25th March 2023, 09:45 PM   #3358
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Irrelevant.
There is extravagant hubris and no curiosity in your posts.
Every "system" I have seen and tried has failed. Yours may be the exception but I wouldn't bet my money on it. Whether or not you believe in your own system enough to actually apply it with your money will tell the tale.

I wish you luck, but I do expect you to fail. I'd be happy for you to prove me wrong.
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Old 27th March 2023, 01:14 AM   #3359
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Every "system" I have seen and tried has failed. Yours may be the exception but I wouldn't bet my money on it. Whether or not you believe in your own system enough to actually apply it with your money will tell the tale.

I wish you luck, but I do expect you to fail. I'd be happy for you to prove me wrong.
I just txtd a callow youth who follows crypto and energies etc on a simulator, suggesting sell crypto on the completion of my algorithm pattern.
Bitcoin is around 27837 so let us see what portends.
Essentially this is a time stamped trade.
May the force be with us.
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Old 27th March 2023, 01:50 AM   #3360
The Don
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I just txtd a callow youth who follows crypto and energies etc on a simulator, suggesting sell crypto on the completion of my algorithm pattern.
Bitcoin is around 27837 so let us see what portends.
Essentially this is a time stamped trade.
May the force be with us.
Alternatively you could put your money where your mouth and execute a trade if the algorithm is *that* good.

I mean it's highly likely that something as volatile as Bitcoin will trade at a price lower than 27837 at some point in the future but then again it's likely that it'll trade higher than 27837 at some point in the future as well.


edited to add....

Oh look, it's currently at 27861 so if you'd have claimed that the algorithm said the price would be going up, you'd have been right.

Last edited by The Don; 27th March 2023 at 01:53 AM.
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