Origins of Covid

[angrysoba]

Quote:

GENEVA (AP) — A team of international and Chinese scientists is poised to report on its joint search for the origins of the coronavirus that sparked a pandemic after it was first detected in China over a year ago — with four theories being considered, and one the clear frontrunner, according to experts.

...

Team member Vladimir Dedkov, an epidemiologist and deputy director of research at the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute in Russia, summarized the four main leads first laid out at a marathon news conference in China last month about the suspected origins of the first infection in humans. They were, in order of likelihood: from a bat through an intermediary animal; straight from a bat; via contaminated frozen food products; from a leak from a laboratory like the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Link

[gsgs]

but who is "they " ?
WIV ? Hubei ? Beijing ?
Remember, the top Hubei politicians were fired by Beijing for
early Jan-2020-coverup .
Remember the Shi-interview, how she couldn't speep and was relieved when the
sequences came out.
Remember the early papers, the WHO-mission in Feb.2020
Then the appointment of Zong Nanshan (SARS1) as a demonstration of new
openness and transpartency.
Then the Xi Jinping speach to the world and the declared new openness.

This doesn't make sense, if they(Beijing) knew about a lab-connection
(at that time) and wanted to cover it up

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by gsgs

but who is "they " ?
WIV ? Hubei ? Beijing ?
Remember, the top Hubei politicians were fired by Beijing for
early Jan-2020-coverup .
Remember the Shi-interview, how she couldn't speep and was relieved when the
sequences came out.
Remember the early papers, the WHO-mission in Feb.2020
Then the appointment of Zong Nanshan (SARS1) as a demonstration of new
openness and transpartency.
Then the Xi Jinping speach to the world and the declared new openness.

This doesn't make sense, if they(Beijing) knew about a lab-connection
(at that time) and wanted to cover it up

As you say - IF. That's the operative word here.

[angrysoba]

For better or worse, here is the report...

https://www.who.int/publications/i/i...v-2-china-part

Okay, so I did not know this bit....

Quote:

The
Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such
moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.

[gsgs]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

For better or worse, here is the report...
{URL deleted}
Okay, so I did not know this bit....

---------------------
I remember they talked about it in spring 2020 . Only 300m,
much closer than the WIV. But they didn't do the bat-experiments there,
those were done in Beijing , so people lost interest in CCDC (afair)

Andersen twitter-thread :
[search for it, I'm not allowed to post links/urls)
@K_G_Andersen

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by gsgs

---------------------
I remember they talked about it in spring 2020 . Only 300m,
much closer than the WIV. But they didn't do the bat-experiments there,
those were done in Beijing , so people lost interest in CCDC (afair)

Andersen twitter-thread :
[search for it, I'm not allowed to post links/urls)
@K_G_Andersen

Okay, thanks. I'll try to find it.

I suppose the point is that there are actually a number of labs throughout China doing research on SARSr coronaviruses, as well as further afield. Perhaps saying, "Ah, look, the Wuhan Institute of Virology is here in Wuhan" as being a coincidence is just a case of the sharpshooter fallacy. If Covid-19 had been found in Beijing or Guilin, maybe the same questions could have been raised about how it was a coincidence that people were doing virus research there.

Anyway, in the meantime, this is from TWiV. They talk a little about the findings of the report and address the different possibilities of lab escape. Of course, there are strong and weak versions of this theory.

The Strong Version is that it was engineered there, maybe through gain-of-function or something along those lines.

The Weak Version is that somehow it got out on someone's clothes or something like that.

I suppose the inbetween ones are that they had found it, sequenced it and put it on the database, then took it down when they feared it got loose and some lab people got sick, and then tried to cover it up, but failed, and since then they have been stone-walling and got Peter Daszak and some others in to help cover it up for them.

The virologists on TWiV and, I would say most around the world, seem to give this a low probability and say so on this podcast. Vincent Racaniello does say he has been trying to get Daszak on his show to talk about it, but Daszak hasn't replied.

https://youtu.be/LqGPuFoYiNY?t=3935

[angrysoba]

So Vincent Racaniello was on one of his Q&As and is asked about the origins of Covid. Obviously he doesn't know but sketches a plausible way in which it may have spiller over. In his answer he also mentions that Peter Daszak and two others from the WHO study on the origins of Covid will be appearing on TWiV:

https://youtu.be/6TLXKkHr1C4?t=3038

[Big Les]

A new article strongly suggesting that the origin might be a Chinese lab. No idea how legit it is, but it is a scientific article;

On the Origin of SARS-CoV-2: Did Cell Culture Experiments Lead to Increased Virulence of the Progenitor Virus for Humans?
BERND KAINA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1313-1326; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12384

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Big Les

A new article strongly suggesting that the origin might be a Chinese lab. No idea how legit it is, but it is a scientific article;

On the Origin of SARS-CoV-2: Did Cell Culture Experiments Lead to Increased Virulence of the Progenitor Virus for Humans?
BERND KAINA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1313-1326; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12384

It puts together the evidence we've posted here with some additions.

Quote:

The presence of a human sequence in SARS-CoV-2 supports the hypothesis that the progenitor was propagated in human cells where it gained the sequence by a recombination event. ...

The presence of a human sequence in SARS-CoV-2 supports the hypothesis that the progenitor was propagated in human cells where it gained the sequence by a recombination event. ...

d) The presence of a human sequence in the virus genome (40) strongly indicates that SARS-CoV-2 was propagated in human cells before it caused the pandemic.

The Chinese may have covered their recent tracks, there are a number of relevant papers published from the Wuhan research that cannot be taken back or covered up.

The pangolin doesn't look like the intermediator when one considers:

Quote:

Pangolins have a low rate of reproduction, which would probably have been zero at the Huanan wildlife market in Wuhan, if they were offered there. As a selection medium for adaptation to humans, pangolins (or similar exotic animals) are therefore not likely to be a particularly good choice for the virus.

In view of this, primary infection from animals on the wildlife market is unlikely to have happend. One could also speculate that house cats from families of asymptomatic infected people were the intermediate host.

All in all, an excellent synopsis with well supported evidence of the lab error hypothesis.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Big Les

A new article strongly suggesting that the origin might be a Chinese lab. No idea how legit it is, but it is a scientific article;

On the Origin of SARS-CoV-2: Did Cell Culture Experiments Lead to Increased Virulence of the Progenitor Virus for Humans?
BERND KAINA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1313-1326; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12384

Very informative, but the conclusion:

Quote:

Even though evidence is lacking that the virus was intentionally genetically engineered, the possibility that the virus could have emerged unintentionally through laboratory experiments should lead to a rethinking of the need for gain-of-function experiments aimed at enhancing the pathogenicity of a disease-causing agent.

doesn't advance the theory beyond possibilities.

One thing did stand out for me - in the piece, Bernd says:

Quote:

Another possibility to be considered is that there was no intermediate animal host, but natural selection took place in humans directly. The predecessor of SARS-CoV-2 would therefore have jumped directly from the bat into humans (e.g. by inhaling dust or droplets/aerosols exhaled by bats, from which SL-CoVs were isolated, or when hunting and preparing the animals for consumption) and initially there would have been an undetected human-to-human transmission. The virulence was initially very low, but increased over time when the furin cleavage site and other supportive mutations were gained. In this scenario, selection took place in humans until the insertion of the furin cleavage site was perfect. Thus, the virus gained the property to be efficiently propagated in humans and clusters of infection were formed due to high infectivity, which allowed the virus to survive evolutionarily. This scenario assumes that there was a period of undetected infection and transmission even before the furin cleavage site was incorporated into the viral genome.

That could explain the plethora of results that apparently show Covid infections prior to December 2019.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Of course they are going to use the term 'possibility'.

Tell us TA, which hypothesis/theory do you think the evidence favors?

And have you put the pangolin speculation to rest yet?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Tell us TA, which hypothesis/theory do you think the evidence favors?

I don't think the evidence we have so far favours any of them.

Given the fact that SARS, MERS, Ebola and other coronaviruses have happened naturally, I think natural transmission is still the warm favourite.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I don't think the evidence we have so far favours any of them.

Given the fact that SARS, MERS, Ebola and other coronaviruses have happened naturally, I think natural transmission is still the warm favourite.

By that standard, lab leaks have happened before.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by gsgs

---------------------
I remember they talked about it in spring 2020 . Only 300m,
much closer than the WIV. But they didn't do the bat-experiments there,
those were done in Beijing, so people lost interest in CCDC (afair)

I wondered about the claims about live bats in Wuhan and asked in here some time ago for decent proof of it, to no avail. Today, I looked further into it.
There actually is clear evidence bats were kept in the Wuhan lab and had been experimented on there for many years.

Taiwan News has a good article citing the evidence, some of which can only be seen on Internet Archive now. I've posted the main ones below...


Peter Daszak tweeted Dec 10, 2020 (now deleted)(archive link):



---------------------------------------------------
This is from a human-interest piece done on Shi done in March 2009 (archived/translated):

Quote:

Like many scientists, Shi Zhengli is very low-key whether she is doing things or being a person. In February of this year, when the reporter learned that the research team led by her first discovered the presence of Nipah virus antibodies in bats in mainland China, they contacted her for an interview and was declined. The reporter had to take the liberty to come to her research group. Unexpectedly, her assistant told the reporter: "Mr. Shi is on a business trip to Beijing." The reporter simply started talking with her assistant and colleagues.

(snip)....

In the eyes of colleagues, Shi Zhengli's life is very frugal. If you don't travel on business, you can basically see her in the office or laboratory.

Zhang Huajun said: “The research team captured a few bats from the wild to be used as experimental animals. They need to be fed every day. This Spring Festival, the students went home for a holiday, and Teacher Shi silently undertook the task of raising bats. No one knows until now.

--------------------------------------------------

From page 12 of a "Meeting Report" (pdf) following a China-US Emerging Infections Workshop held in China, May 2017

(Shi is "bat woman" but here is referred to as "he"...then again, it's a Chinese translation.)

Quote:

Zhengli Shi (Principal Investigator, Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS) spoke about the evolution and pathogenesis of bat SARS like coronavirus (SL CoV). Shi is working on corona virus and other emerging infections and said that bat SL CoV could be the next pandemic. He described the cases and countries involved in the 2003 SARs outbreak. For bat corona virus to cause the next SL CoV outbreak many factors will have to be involved. His research looks at the pathogenesis of SL CoV in transgenic mice. It replicates very well in mice and human tissue. The virus can easily enter human cells but in the animal model the virus has less pathogenesis; this is good news.
His research shows that some bat SL CoVs have potential interspecies transmission to other animals and humans.

An audience member asked if one could clear an infected bat of this virus? Zhengli said that he tried this with Nipah virus in bats and bats could produce antibodies, clear within seven days. In nature we found that bats produce antibodies to some viruses but not all. SL CoV can exist in bats for several months. An audience member said that you cannot be sure that this pathogen willcause human disease and that more data are needed. Right now infections are very mild and there is no clinical syndrome. Further studies are needed.

---------------------------------------------------

Taiwan News also refers to a Sixth Tone article published in May 2018 called: How China’s Bat Caves Hold the Secret to Preventing Epidemics

Quote:

Luo’s supervisor Shi Zhengli, has been studying bat-borne viruses since 2004. Luo and his fellow researchers’ Hubei expedition is but one leg of a regular sampling tour that takes them from the Tibetan highlands to the southern coast.
...
PREDICT, an international project run by the U.S.-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance (Daszak's company) that also sponsors some of the WIV’s work, aims to detect newly discovered viruses and map epidemic hot spots across more than 30 countries.

By 8:30 p.m., Luo’s team has collected a full rack of swabs and bagged a dozen live bats for further testing back at the lab. Luo hopes that this time, the results will come out differently. His colleague points out a firefly bobbing up and down in the pitch-black cave. “It might be a good omen,” Luo says with a smile.

-------------------------------------------------

Here is an archived description of the Wuhan lab:

Quote:

The facility has 126 cages for Japanese white rabbits, 340 cages for SD and Wistar rats, inbred strains, closed groups, mutant strains, and genetically engineered mice. There are 3268 cages, 12 ferrets, 12 bats, and 2 species of cotton bollworm and beet armyworm, totaling 52 strains.

Each cage holds multiple bats according to their 2018 patent application:

Quote:

Current Assignee: Wuhan Institute of Virology of CAS
2018-06-15 Application filed by Wuhan Institute of Virology of CAS
2019-01-04 Application granted
-------------------------
A kind of carnivorism bat rearging cage

The utility model relates to a kind of wild animals to tame breeding apparatus technical field, more particularly, to a kind of carnivorism bat Rearging cage.

Bat becomes a variety of cause of diseases preferably natural place due to characteristics such as more with type, widely distributed, service life length It is main.But up to the present, at home and abroad there is no under artificial condition captive breeding successfully report.Both at home and abroad when research bat, Major part is to be captured as needed, and bat is freeed after taking required sample or is temporarily raised a period of time.But it raises Usually with cage of keeping pet, or the net cage being temporarily transformed, there is no a kind of special bat rearging cages to relax the cage tool of bat for bat Suitable life.

The utility model makes bat being capable of healthy growth and breeding under artificial condition.

eta: diagram of bat cage here. It's too large to post.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

There actually is clear evidence bats were kept in the Wuhan lab and had been experimented on there for many years.

Incorrect. Read the article again, and keep note that:

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Taiwan News ...

...is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to China.

Taiwan News also reported that the Three Gorges Dam was about to collapse in June 2020.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Incorrect. Read the article again, and keep note that:
...is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to China.

Taiwan News also reported that the Three Gorges Dam was about to collapse in June 2020.

Incorrect. Read the article again, and keep note that: China like many countries was experiencing record floods. With that in mind the article says: "could", "is in danger of" and so on.

Nowhere in the article does it say, "will" or even "is about to". In fact, you altered the title which says: "in danger of collapse".

You do know the difference between "in danger of' and 'was about to" right?


Now why did you imply the article said something it didn't say?

And it's not like the article was a propaganda piece. Three Gorges Dam deformed but safe, say operators

Quote:

In a rare revelation, Beijing has admitted that its 2.4-kilometer Three Gorges Dam spanning the Yangtze River in Hubei province “deformed slightly” after record flooding.

The official Xinhua News Agency quoted the operator of the the world’s largest hydroelectric gravity dam as saying that some nonstructural, peripheral parts of the dam had buckled.

Holy cow! It was noted in satellite images which you can see in the images in the article. The straight line of the dam is no longer straight.

But back to the topic: You are dismissing evidence that is corroborated elsewhere (despite Sherkeu not remembering ). I posted upthread about the live bats at the WIV.

And look at you, ignoring Daszak's blatant conflict of interest

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Incorrect. Read the article again, and keep note that:

...is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to China.

Taiwan News also reported that the Three Gorges Dam was about to collapse in June 2020.

I checked, read, and linked to each original source.

All the quotes in my post are taken from the original sources--which is why they are longer, to give more context than a news article allows.

Follow the links and see for yourself.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

But back to the topic: You are dismissing evidence that is corroborated elsewhere (despite Sherkeu not remembering ). I posted upthread about the live bats at the WIV.
[/hilite]

Sorry! I recalled claims of it but must have missed a post- or even a few- about the sources.

[angrysoba]

I don't know if bats were kept in the Wuhan labs, but when reading Spillover, I did not that David Quammen talked about going to caves (not in Yunnan), and capturing bats with two scientists (neither of whom wore PPE, which Quammen was a bit concerned about in the book), then took the bats back to the lab (in the southeast of China, took samples, and then released them out the 3rd floor window.

The only time one of the scientsists put on a mask was when he dissected a horseshoe bat that they had accidentally killed while collecting it.

Quammen expresses concerns about contracting SARS from a bat. The American scientist that he is with laughs it off and compares biosecurity to seatbelts. Sure, in America you will wear seatbelts all the time, but good luck thinking you can wear them all over the world.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Sorry! I recalled claims of it but must have missed a post- or even a few- about the sources.

No worries. Always good to add to the growing body of evidence.

I cited the same Taiwan News article here.

But you've added additional stuff.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Incorrect.

First line of the article: warning that it could collapse at any moment.

You don't get much more unequivocal than that.

Taiwan is understandably keen to present China in a negative light, and that's exactly what they're doing. The article contains inferences and claims that aren't supported by the evidence.

Applying for a patent for bat cages is not evidence of there being bat cages.

Bats being at the lab is neither evidence of breeding or inadvertent release of the virus.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

And look at you, ignoring Daszak's blatant conflict of interest

The exact same claims were thrown at Fauci last year.

When you get some actual evidence, let me know.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

First line of the article: warning that it could collapse at any moment.

You don't get much more unequivocal than that.

Taiwan is understandably keen to present China in a negative light, and that's exactly what they're doing. The article contains inferences and claims that aren't supported by the evidence.

Applying for a patent for bat cages is not evidence of there being bat cages.

Bats being at the lab is neither evidence of breeding or inadvertent release of the virus.



The exact same claims were thrown at Fauci last year.

When you get some actual evidence, let me know.

Heh
Coincidence in Charles Dickens is ncessary for plot.
Coincidence in Wuhan is necessary for a nonsensical denial of the obvious.
Walks looks quacks like a duck.

What is it?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Samson

Coincidence in Wuhan is necessary for a nonsensical denial of the obvious.

So obvious that no concrete evidence has been found, while supposition and assumptions rule.

I do find it more than a little ironic that you of all people are calling for conclusions without solid evidence.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

First line of the article: warning that it could collapse at any moment.

COULD not will.

Did you look at the satellite images?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

So obvious that no concrete evidence has been found, while supposition and assumptions rule.

I do find it more than a little ironic that you of all people are calling for conclusions without solid evidence.

Your definition of "concrete evidence" leaves a bit to be desired.

Remember, you have no concrete evidence of a natural spillover either.

I'll have more to say when I get back from an appointment.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Your definition of "concrete evidence" leaves a bit to be desired.

Remember, you have no concrete evidence of a natural spillover either.

I haven't ever suggested there is.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I haven't ever suggested there is.

That makes this position quite arbitrary:

Originally Posted by TA

I don't think the evidence we have so far favours any of them.

Given the fact that SARS, MERS, Ebola and other coronaviruses have happened naturally, I think natural transmission is still the warm favourite.

Lab leaks have happened before.

You had to gin up an assertion the Taiwan Times was unreliable.

You overlook Daszak's conflict of interest.

And you admit there is no direct evidence it was spillover while using that same criteria of no direct evidence to refute the lab leak hypothesis.


Not to beat that dead horse just yet, I do recommend you take a closer look at how the more recent genetic analyses further rules out the pangolin as an intermediary host. Because it does.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

You had to gin up an assertion the Taiwan Times was unreliable.

It's not an assertuion, it's factual that Taiwan Times will try to drag China through the mud at every opportunity it can find. I don't blame them, but I don't trust their position either.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

You overlook Daszak's conflict of interest.

Nope. He's not the only person on the other side of the fence.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

And you admit there is no direct evidence it was spillover while using that same criteria of no direct evidence to refute the lab leak hypothesis.

Maybe you need new glasses? I haven't refuted anything, and you even quoted me saying I think one scenario is more likely. I wouldn't be surprised if it came from the lab, I just think it's less likely than the other option.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Not to beat that dead horse just yet, I do recommend you take a closer look at how the more recent genetic analyses further rules out the pangolin as an intermediary host. Because it does.

It wasn't me banging the pangolin drum. I'm quite happy to rule them out.

If asked me for an intermediate species I'd go mustelids. We know for sure the disease is able to jump to and from mink & humans pretty readily and there are a hell of a lot of minks in China. Felines are possible as well. Civets have a bit of history there.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Lab leaks have happened before.

^^This. Many many times- even with top-rate protocols and safety equipment!
And the "many times" are just the ones we know about. There is no such thing as 100% safety.

SARS got out of the Beijing lab three times (really 4x as one incident involved 2 unrelated infections, weeks apart- of students who did not even work with viruses). SARS also got out once in Taiwan, once in Singapore.

For the novel coronavirus, Shi stated that she initially feared it was from the lab, but after finding no signs of safety slip-ups, she was then able to compare sequence data of viruses stored there against the newly published SARS-CoV-2 genome and found no matches.
Therefore, it could not have come from her lab.
She seemed relieved, stating "“That really took a load off my mind. I had not slept a wink for days.”

But... this reasoning seems at odds with her own investigation of a 2003 Hanta leak at a lab in Yunnan where 2 students were infected. Shi tested 6 wild rats from the immediate area to test for Hanta and all were negative. Her conclusion was that it came from from the lab.
In that case, it was a new Hanta virus, arising naturally from 2 rodent species in the lab kept in close proximity- then jumping to a human - all inside the lab. Several safety violations were addressed.

Here is the abstract (2010):

Quote:

An outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome occurred among students in a college (College A) in Kunming, Yunnan province, China in 2003. Subsequent investigations revealed the presence of hantavirus antibodies and antigens in laboratory rats at College A and two other institutions. Hantavirus antibodies were detected in 15 additional individuals other than the index case in these three locations. Epidemiologic data indicated that the human infections were a result of zoonotic transmission of the virus from laboratory rats. A virus was isolated from rats in College A and the full-length genome sequence revealed that this was a new Hantaan virus isolate, designated strain KY. Sequence analysis of the three genome segments indicated that this new isolate is a reassortant derived from human and rat Hantaan viruses. Further sequence analysis of the medium (M) genome segment revealed that it originated from a recombination event between two rat Hantaan virus lineages.

These accidental infections were only discovered when the young students (in their 20's) became ill enough to require hospital care. I cannot think of an infectious pathogen 'escape' that was not discovered in this way.
If the same happened with SARS CoV-2, the infections would likely go unnoticed. This is just another one of many scenarios where the lab (or their field work) is the source.

We also know that the same idea of testing animals was done for SARS CoV-2 to find a spillover source leading to the Wuhan outbreak. They tested animals in the wild, in the market, and on farms and didn't find any that tested positive.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I was contemplating the universe for a bit today and it struck me what devastation has occurred (and is occurring) worldwide because of a careless act in a single lab. By single act I mean creating or isolating and propagating this and maybe other dangerous viruses. The actual accident is of course to blame. But the hubris to think you could study dangerous coronaviruses no worries, all you need to be is careful. ...

From the worldometer:

Quote:

3,227,188 people have died so far from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of May 04, 2021, 05:25 GMT.

There are currently 154,195,608 confirmed cases in 220 countries and territories . The fatality rate is still being assessed.

And we know the real numbers are much much higher.

You let a dangerous virus loose in the world and more than 3 million people have died, hospitals overcrowded, not enough oxygen or ventilators or nurses .....

And somebody knows they did it, they know that virus is one they were working with. I hope someone eventually comes forward but I can't imagine they will now as long as they know they can cover it up.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

^^This. Many many times- even with top-rate protocols and safety equipment!
And the "many times" are just the ones we know about. There is no such thing as 100% safety.

SARS got out of the Beijing lab three times (really 4x as one incident involved 2 unrelated infections, weeks apart- of students who did not even work with viruses). SARS also got out once in Taiwan, once in Singapore.

For the novel coronavirus, Shi stated that she initially feared it was from the lab, but after finding no signs of safety slip-ups, she was then able to compare sequence data of viruses stored there against the newly published SARS-CoV-2 genome and found no matches.
Therefore, it could not have come from her lab.
She seemed relieved, stating "“That really took a load off my mind. I had not slept a wink for days.”

Don't her actions and her concerns and the fact that she voiced them not sound completely reasonable to you?

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

But... this reasoning seems at odds with her own investigation of a 2003 Hanta leak at a lab in Yunnan where 2 students were infected. Shi tested 6 wild rats from the immediate area to test for Hanta and all were negative. Her conclusion was that it came from from the lab.
In that case, it was a new Hanta virus, arising naturally from 2 rodent species in the lab kept in close proximity- then jumping to a human - all inside the lab. Several safety violations were addressed.

Here is the abstract (2010):

I don't understand how they are at odds. Presumably the virus in the second case can be isolated from the lab rats themselves.

I think we have already seen an argument for why the virus did not come from the lab in this case which is that the viruses they had sequenced were not similar enough.

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

These accidental infections were only discovered when the young students (in their 20's) became ill enough to require hospital care. I cannot think of an infectious pathogen 'escape' that was not discovered in this way.
If the same happened with SARS CoV-2, the infections would likely go unnoticed. This is just another one of many scenarios where the lab (or their field work) is the source.

We also know that the same idea of testing animals was done for SARS CoV-2 to find a spillover source leading to the Wuhan outbreak. They tested animals in the wild, in the market, and on farms and didn't find any that tested positive.

I think lab escapes have sometimes been noticed in other ways such as sending the wrong vials to people, or when a researcher accidentally stabs themselves with a syringe.

It should be pointed out as well that some viruses just appear in unexpected places. This has happened, for example, with Ebola.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I was contemplating the universe for a bit today and it struck me what devastation has occurred (and is occurring) worldwide because of a careless act in a single lab. By single act I mean creating or isolating and propagating this and maybe other dangerous viruses. The actual accident is of course to blame. But the hubris to think you could study dangerous coronaviruses no worries, all you need to be is careful. ...

From the worldometer: And we know the real numbers are much much higher.

You let a dangerous virus loose in the world and more than 3 million people have died, hospitals overcrowded, not enough oxygen or ventilators or nurses .....

And somebody knows they did it, they know that virus is one they were working with. I hope someone eventually comes forward but I can't imagine they will now as long as they know they can cover it up.

This is truly beyond the evidence.

You are now asserting for a fact that it was a lab leak, that specific scientists know about it and that there is a cover-up of this fact.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

...
I think we have already seen an argument for why the virus did not come from the lab in this case which is that the viruses they had sequenced were not similar enough.

That evidence is promoted by Daszak who has a significant conflict of interest. Also one of the main researchers at the WIV said none of her study samples match the circulating COVID.

But at the same time papers they published in recent years contradicts the denial and the Chinese government in quite a haste took a ton of genetic evidence off the place it had previously been where researchers had access.

We've posted a lot of sources that contradict the denial and when the WHO team went to check they weren't allowed to see very much.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

It should be pointed out as well that some viruses just appear in unexpected places. This has happened, for example, with Ebola.

That the initial source was in the vicinity of the lab is a very unlikely coincidence. I'm not sure why you think ebola inexplicably occurred. It's been traced to direct contact with bats in the area. Not sure there's an area with ebola that doesn't have those bats.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

This is truly beyond the evidence.

You are now asserting for a fact that it was a lab leak, that specific scientists know about it and that there is a cover-up of this fact.

You're right. I did wander in that direction in my Universe contemplating. It was a train of thought not meant to be an evidence based proven conclusion.

But nonetheless there is a lot of evidence supporting my Universe contemplation.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

That evidence is promoted by Daszak who has a significant conflict of interest.

I don't understand what you mean.

The closest relative that we know about is RaTG13, which is something like 96% similar to SARS CoV2. It was you who pooh-poohed the similarity and pointed out that chimpanzees were 96% similar.

Other virologists (not just Daszak) but most others such as Linfa Wang and many others say that there is no way to get from RaTG13 to SARS CoV2 with current technology.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Also one of the main researchers at the WIV said none of her study samples match the circulating COVID.

Indeed.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

But at the same time papers they published in recent years contradicts the denial

Do you mean Shi Zhengli actually published a paper showing that her study samples matched Covid?

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

and the Chinese government in quite a haste took a ton of genetic evidence off the place it had previously been where researchers had access.

Apparently they took that database down in September 2019, did they not? That doesn't help the case unless you can show that Covid was around back then?

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

That the initial source was in the vicinity of the lab is a very unlikely coincidence. I'm not sure why you think ebola inexplicably occurred. It's been traced to direct contact with bats in the area. Not sure there's an area with ebola that doesn't have those bats.

Yes, almost certainly from bats, but Ebola outbreaks are sporadic and sometimes emerge in unusual locations:

Quote:

The huge Ebola epidemic that struck West Africa between 2013 and 2016 took the world by surprise. The virus had never been found in the region; all previous Ebola outbreaks were in countries in Central Africa or Sudan. And it posed a mystery: Where did the virus, called Ebola Zaire, come from?

Now, scientists may have an answer. Near the mouth of an abandoned mineshaft in Liberia, they caught a bat that was likely infected with Ebola Zaire. The researchers didn't isolate the virus itself but found about one-fifth of its genome in the animal; it's too early to tell whether it's exactly the same strain as the one that ravaged the region. Still, “This is an important new lead and it should be followed up extensively,” says Fabian Leendertz, a veterinary epidemiologist at the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin who was not involved in the work.

The finding also sheds new light on the natural history of Ebola, which has befuddled scientists for decades, says Jon Epstein, a veterinary epidemiologist at EcoHealth Alliance in New York City and a member of the PREDICT consortium that made the discovery. “It is really our first evidence of any bat carrying Ebola Zaire virus in the region,” Epstein says. “It allows us to take a deeper look and try to understand where this virus came from.”

Link

But remember that we have known about Ebola since the 1970s but it has taken a long time to get to the point where we can really know how it spreads.

There is a further mystery and that is that Ebola has a number of strains and there is one kind that affects primates other than humans, and it exists in The Philippines. Ironically it was discovered in a US lab when a scientist was examining a macaque imported from the Philippines:

Quote:

Reston virus (RESTV) is one of six known viruses within the genus Ebolavirus. Reston virus causes Ebola virus disease in non-human primates; unlike the other five ebolaviruses, it is not known to cause disease in humans, but has caused asymptomatic infections.[1][2][3] Reston virus was first described in 1990 as a new "strain" of Ebola virus (EBOV).[4] It is the single member of the species Reston ebolavirus, which is included into the genus Ebolavirus, family Filoviridae, order Mononegavirales.[5] Reston virus is named after Reston, Virginia, US, where the virus was first discovered.

RESTV was discovered in crab-eating macaques from Hazleton Laboratories (now Covance) in 1989. This attracted significant media attention due to the proximity of Reston to the Washington, DC, metro area and the lethality of a closely related Ebola virus. Despite its status as a level-4 organism, Reston virus is non-pathogenic to humans, though hazardous to monkeys

Link

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

You're right. I did wander in that direction in my Universe contemplating. It was a train of thought not meant to be an evidence based proven conclusion.

But nonetheless there is a lot of evidence supporting my Universe contemplation.

Okay, fair enough. I was wondering about that, because I had assumed that you were still only assuming the lab leak was only one of a number of possible hypotheses.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Big Les

A new article strongly suggesting that the origin might be a Chinese lab. No idea how legit it is, but it is a scientific article;

On the Origin of SARS-CoV-2: Did Cell Culture Experiments Lead to Increased Virulence of the Progenitor Virus for Humans?
BERND KAINA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1313-1326; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12384

I couldn't find much discussing how credible the journal is, but the highlights of this particular issue do not look promising.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I don't understand what you mean.

The closest relative that we know about is RaTG13, which is something like 96% similar to SARS CoV2. It was you who pooh-poohed the similarity and pointed out that chimpanzees were 96% similar.

Other virologists (not just Daszak) but most others such as Linfa Wang and many others say that there is no way to get from RaTG13 to SARS CoV2 with current technology.

Indeed.

Do you mean Shi Zhengli actually published a paper showing that her study samples matched Covid?

Apparently they took that database down in September 2019, did they not? That doesn't help the case unless you can show that Covid was around back then?

Yes, almost certainly from bats, but Ebola outbreaks are sporadic and sometimes emerge in unusual locations:

Link

But remember that we have known about Ebola since the 1970s but it has taken a long time to get to the point where we can really know how it spreads.

There is a further mystery and that is that Ebola has a number of strains and there is one kind that affects primates other than humans, and it exists in The Philippines. Ironically it was discovered in a US lab when a scientist was examining a macaque imported from the Philippines:

Link

I hate going over the whole damn thread full of evidence to again address the same issues.

Yes it was Sept 2019, about the time of the first case as calculated by the genetic history clock.

What past papers show is the WIV was researching live coronavirus including encouraging the development of chimeras and propagating the virus in human lung cells.

Did ebola emerge near a lab studying it?

And the Reston incident is an historical case in point that fortunately resulted in a dodged bullet so I'm not sure why you are bringing that up.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Okay, fair enough. I was wondering about that, because I had assumed that you were still only assuming the lab leak was only one of a number of possible hypotheses.

IMO more evidence supports the lab leak than not.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by lomiller

I couldn't find much discussing how credible the journal is, but the highlights of this particular issue do not look promising.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ictureid=12826

I haven't looked at the article yet and I was trying to find the editorial board and haven't found that either, but the articles in the current journal don't look like the featured articles.

https://iv.iiarjournals.org/

Quote:

LATEST ARTICLES
Retrospective Study of the Effects of Post-nasal Drip Symptoms on Cough Duration
TAKEO NAKAJIMA, TATSUYA NAGANO and YOSHIHIRO NISHIMURA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1799-1803; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12440

Rare Nivolumab-associated Super Hyper Progressive Disease in Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer
YUTARO KUBOTA, KIYOSHI YOSHIMURA, KAZUYUKI HAMADA, YUYA HIRASAWA, MIDORI SHIDA, MAKOTO TANIGUCHI, HIROTO MATSUI, HIROTSUGU ARIIZUMI, TOMOYUKI ISHIGURO, NORIHIRO SUZUKI, RYOTARO OHKUMA, TAKEHIKO SAMBE, HIROO ISHIDA, ATSUSHI HORIIKE, SATOSHI WADA, JUNJI TSURUTANI, SANJU IWAMOTO, NAOKI UCHIDA, YUJI KIUCHI, SHINICHI KOBAYASHI and TAKUYA TSUNODA
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1865-1875; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12449

A Potential Pathogenic Link Between Cancer of Female Reproductive System and Infertile Women Treated With Assisted Reproduction Techniques
MICHAIL DIAKOSAVVAS, ZACHARIAS FASOULAKIS, THOMAS NTOUNIS, ANTONIOS KOUTRAS, KYVELI ANGELOU, GEORGIOS TSATSARIS, ATHANASIOS SYLLAIOS, NIKOLAOS GARMPIS and EMMANUEL N. KONTOMANOLIS
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1393-1399; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12391

Long-term Response After Stopping Immunotherapy in a Patient With Metastatic Renal Cancer
BOGDAN HAINEALA, ANCA ZGURA, CAMELIA DIACONU, CLAUDIA MEHEDINTU, XENIA BACINSCHI and RODICA MARICELA ANGHEL
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1805-1810; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12441

Bioluminescence Imaging of Matrix Metalloproteinases-2 and -9 Activities in Ethanol-injured Cornea of Mice
SEUNG-BO PARK, SEUNG HYO JUNG, HENGZHE JIN, SU JUNG KIM, YUNKYOUNG RYU, KYUNG-JIN LEE, BOKYUNG KIM, HYUN JIN SHIN and KYUNG-JONG WON
In Vivo May 2021, 35 (3) 1521-1528; DOI: https://doi.org/10.21873/invivo.12405 ...

And so on....