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Tags HSCA , JFK assassination , Kennedy conspiracies

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Old Today, 12:02 PM   #3961
pgwenthold
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Originally Posted by Axxman300 View Post
This is the biggest truth which CTists ignore:

Oswald only had to do it all once.

If they made him repeat those shots maybe he misses all three, maybe lands one, or he gets three head shots.:
Remember, he had four bullets, so had 4 tries.

To add to my Q and A above

Q: Why didn't he take 4 shots?
A: Because he got it done in 3.
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Old Today, 12:08 PM   #3962
BStrong
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Remember, he had four bullets, so had 4 tries.

To add to my Q and A above

Q: Why didn't he take 4 shots?
A: Because he got it done in 3.
As an aside, he could have thought he'd run the rifle dry. Given how many negligent discharges occur where the shooter believed the piece to be empty (without checking the magazine or the chamber) it's entirely possible that's why LHO didn't fire the fourth round.
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Old Today, 12:13 PM   #3963
OKBob
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Originally Posted by SOdhner View Post
IF the distance made the shot improbable (which it doesn't) it could be that LHO simply lucked out.
Another way of putting this is that all the CT talk of the probability of LHO's shots dissolves before the stubborn fact, amply shown by the physical evidence, that he did make the shots. The "did" displaces the "could" or "couldn't" in the realm of rational inquiry. After that, debates over LHO's marksman skills, the quality of his weapon, and the difficulty of the shots become something like character evidence at trial: largely irrelevant to the actus reus being weighed by the fact-finder. CTs dabble in probabilities as a way of keeping fact at arm's length, just as they confuse their inference, incredulity, and speculation with what they like to call "fact."

Last edited by OKBob; Today at 12:18 PM.
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Old Today, 12:16 PM   #3964
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
A: Because he got it done in 3.
And because he wasn't trying to kill anyone else.
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Old Today, 12:32 PM   #3965
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Originally Posted by Praktik View Post
Incredulity is ... the grease that lines the slide into the Conspiracy Pit.
Well put!
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Old Today, 12:47 PM   #3966
HSienzant
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Originally Posted by OKBob View Post
Another way of putting this is that all the CT talk of the probability of LHO's shots dissolves before the stubborn fact, amply shown by the physical evidence, that he did make the shots. The "did" displaces the "could" or "couldn't" in the realm of rational inquiry. After that, debates over LHO's marksman skills, the quality of his weapon, and the difficulty of the shots become something like character evidence at trial: largely irrelevant to the actus reus being weighed by the fact-finder. CTs dabble in probabilities as a way of keeping fact at arm's length, just as they confuse their inference, incredulity, and speculation with what they like to call "fact."
And, in fact, they dismiss your very argument above by putting the cart before the horse and calling it BEGGING THE QUESTION:

For example, one conspiracy website says about this:
In an internal Warren Commission memo, Wesley Liebeler criticised an early draft of the Warren Report, pointing out that “we should be more precise in this area [Oswald’s rifle practice], because the Commission is going to have its work in this area examined very closely”. He tacitly admitted the weakness of the evidence by begging the question: “the best evidence that Oswald could fire his rifle as fast as he did and hit the target is the fact that he did so”. (http://22november1963.org.uk/lee-har...n-sharpshooter)

Liebeler's memorandum for the record suggesting revisions to the draft version of the Warren Report, stated, in part:
It seems to me that the most honest and the most sensible thing to do given the present state of the record on Oswald’s rifle capability would be to write a very short section indicating that there is testimony on both sides of several issues. The Commission could then conclude that the best evidence that Oswald could fire his rifle as fast as he did and hit the target is the fact that he did so. It may have been pure luck. It probably was to a very great extent. But it happened. He would have had to have been lucky to hit as he did if he had only 4.8 seconds to fire the shots. Why don’t we admit instead of reaching and using only part of the record to support the propositions presently set forth in the galleys. Those conclusions will never be accepted by critical persons anyway.

Hank
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Old Today, 01:03 PM   #3967
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Originally Posted by HSienzant View Post
And, in fact, they dismiss your very argument above by putting the cart before the horse and calling it BEGGING THE QUESTION:
Yes, and we have seen on this thread and its older siblings how freely and inaccurately CTs toss around the notion of question-begging. Typically, they first learn about the fallacy from a skeptic here, spend several pages denigrating or misunderstanding it, and then finally try to turn it clumsily against their critics, like a shiny new toy they haven't quite figured out.

Certainly, if LHO's feat had been so extraordinary as to strain fair-minded credulity, the question of probabilities would have a greater role to play. But the feat was not extraordinary, alas.
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Old Today, 01:20 PM   #3968
BStrong
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Originally Posted by OKBob View Post
Yes, and we have seen on this thread and its older siblings how freely and inaccurately CTs toss around the notion of question-begging. Typically, they first learn about the fallacy from a skeptic here, spend several pages denigrating or misunderstanding it, and then finally try to turn it clumsily against their critics, like a shiny new toy they haven't quite figured out.

Certainly, if LHO's feat had been so extraordinary as to strain fair-minded credulity, the question of probabilities would have a greater role to play. But the feat was not extraordinary, alas.
The knee jerk reaction in my home was that LCN had hit JFK, but that was based on confirmation bias.

Neither my father or the men in the family that knew anything about the subject matter bought into the magic bullet this-and-that nonsense created out of the blue by Ctists,

When I told the old man about "back and to the left" ******** in JFK he got a good laugh out of it, and when the magic bullet CTist trajectory was being pushed, the first thing out of his mouth was that the investigators had misaligned the positions and location of JFK and Connally in the car.
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Old Today, 06:15 PM   #3969
Axxman300
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Plus, Oswald was 2/3, and it is likely his first shot - when the limo was closest - missed. Nothing that screams expert shot, but show a man adjusting fire on the fly.

And finally, a quick note about the TSBD photo that MJ posted:

That was shot with a wide angle lens, it does not represent true vision.
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