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Old 9th October 2019, 01:51 AM   #41
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'd like to see some evidence to support that particular claim.

OTOH there are many people who claim to have some knowledge of the geopolitics of the Middle East who claim that Skyes-Picot is a significant contributor to the current problems, as is the subsequent partitioning of what remained into countries with nice straight line borders.
No doubt there are many people like that too.

Quote:
That's not to say that there wouldn't still be all kinds of tribal problems in the area but, for example the way that the British handled Saudi Arabia and Jordan was almost a recipe for disaster.
Perhaps, but neither Saudi Arabia nor Jordan is a disaster. Syria, Iraq and Palestine are.

Quote:
There may have been less friction than with borders which create situations like the Kurds are currently facing.
How would those borders be drawn? Present a proposal, make one yourself, contact an academic or what have you. If it's anywhere near as obvious as you seem to think you should be swimming in alternatives.

Quote:
Again, I think you need to provide some evidence to support that claim. I would expect that most of the academics who publish on the subject are very familiar with that information.
I would expect a great deal of academics do not approach the problem with the intent of providing a workable alternative but rather use it either as a way to bash colonialism/the west/the Jews or else as a way to get papers published, books sold, speaker invitations and generally support their careers overall. My only assumption is that academics are like other people who seek to survive in the world and not mythical beings with nothing but honest and pure intentions.

I can't directly prove that but I can be easily disproven if someone presents an alternative to Skyes-Picot borders that may be subjected to scrutiny and criticism.

It's been tried before you see.

"When France took control of what is now Syria, the plan in Paris was to split up the region into smaller statelets under French control. These would have been divided roughly along ethnic, regional and sectarian lines: The French envisioned a state for Alawites, another for Druse, another for Turks and two more centered around Syria’s biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo."

(...)

"Today, five years into Syria’s civil war, a similar division of the country has been suggested as a more authentic alternative to the supposedly artificial Syrian state. But when the French tried to divide Syria almost a century ago, the region’s residents, inspired by ideas of Syrian or Arab unity, pushed by new nationalist leaders, resisted so strongly that France abandoned the plan."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...forth-web.html

Clearly it's all the French fault for not resisting the calls of the natives further, repress criticism and draw the borders the right way. Their insistence on not having their way is to blame for Syrian civil war.

/sarcasm

"Henry King, a theologian, and Charles Crane, an industrialist, conducted hundreds of interviews in order to prepare a map in accordance with the ideal of national self-determination. Was this a missed opportunity to draw the region’s “real” borders? Doubtful. After careful study, King and Crane realized how difficult the task was: They split the difference between making Lebanon independent or making it part of Syria with a proposal for “limited autonomy.” They thought the Kurds might be best off incorporated into Iraq or even Turkey. And they were certain that Sunnis and Shiites belonged together in a unified Iraq. In the end, the French and British ignored the recommendations. If only they had listened, things might have turned out more or less the same."

The main reason for the cresspit we call Arabia has very little to do with foreign influence. The overwhelming reason the entire region is a cresspit is the general aversion by everyone to pin any blame whatsoever on the natives or their religion and relying on foreign scapegoats instead.

Newsflash: finding and beating the feces out of a scapegoat does not resolve the underlying cause.

Think I'm wrong? Present a workable alternative to Skyes-Picot that you can argue is significantly better. You know, like King and Crane, two Americans sent there with honest intentions, tried and failed to do? That.

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Old 9th October 2019, 02:06 AM   #42
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The level of smackdown Trump is getting from the GOP is a clear sign that they are deeply dissatisfied with him, generally. Syria seems to be the one topic Trump won't get impeached for ...
... until we get to hear his phone call with Erdogan.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:15 AM   #43
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Swedish media reports that the Turkish offensive has begun. Kurdish fighters told to prepare for battle.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:17 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Perhaps, but neither Saudi Arabia nor Jordan is a disaster. Syria, Iraq and Palestine are.
Giving Jordan to the Hashemites, with the resultant displacement of the Palestinians who were already living there is one of many factors contributing to the mess in Palestine.

I'd argue that Saudi Arabia is a disaster at least from a human rights, exportation of fundamentalist terror and fighting of proxy wars perspective.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:21 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The level of smackdown Trump is getting from the GOP is a clear sign that they are deeply dissatisfied with him, generally. Syria seems to be the one topic Trump won't get impeached for ...
... until we get to hear his phone call with Erdogan.
As long as Donald Trump has is base, the GOP will support him to the hilt regardless of everything else. They will find a way to explain everything away by claiming that he didn't use the exact phrase "quid pro quo" or some other nonsense.

If President Trump's base shows sign of deserting him and/or not bothering to go out to vote (but as far as I can see, there is no indication of this ever happening) then they will drop him like a hot potato but until and unless that happens he can rely upon the GOP to carry his water for him regardless of the consequences.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:56 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Giving Jordan to the Hashemites, with the resultant displacement of the Palestinians who were already living there is one of many factors contributing to the mess in Palestine.
The main factor contributing to the mess in Palestine is the stern refusal to demand anything out of any actor other than Israel.

All other factors combined amount to a rouding error. But that's a topic for another thread.

Quote:
I'd argue that Saudi Arabia is a disaster at least from a human rights, exportation of fundamentalist terror and fighting of proxy wars perspective.
Yes, and long words at national spelling bee kills people by spider bites.
'Proof.'

Saudi Arabia fights proxy wars in the region because it's the regional leader. Saudi Arabia is a regional leader due to their oil wealth. The oil was not put in their ground by the British. The kingdom was an independent state six years before the oil was found, but the Sauds are much older than Saudi Arabia.

Saudi human rights violation and exportation of Islamist terror that result from Islamic fundamentalism are there in part because the country is home to Mecca and Medina (making the region more pious by that virtue alone) and because the ruling dyansty opted to run the country with the help of Islamist hardliners ... in 1744. That year an alliance was agreed by Muhamad bin Saud and Muhamad ibn Abd al-Wahhab. You know, Wahhab, as in wahhabi is a follower of Wahhab. Saudis opted for an alliance with Islamic fanatics when George Washington was a loyal British colonial kid of twelve years and Britain was ruled by George II. France was a monarchy, Russia an empire and the Holy Roman Empire was still a thing and would remain such for a while. Ottoman Empire was still a force to be reckoned with, India had British trading outposts but was independent and powerful. That was when Saudis opted to align themselves with religius fanatics to better rule the land. Clearly that was all British fault, right?

Direct British involvement in Saudi Arabia lasted less than 15 years, from the end of the World War one to Saudi independence. Saudis (as in dynasty) built up their state, including the alliance with Islamic hardliners, in the preceeding 150 years. It takes a truly British level of hubris to think their involvement somehow mattered more than everything else that had happened in the region prior to their arrival. About the only thing the British could do would be to take the region by force of arms and impose some other ruling family, following some other doctrine that would be "better" and suppress the inevitable rejection and uprisings with Maxim guns.

You know, do the thing that supposedly the British did that caused such damage in the first place?

The main reason Arabia is a cresspit of human civilization is because not nearly enough blame is laid on the feet of Arabs themselves. Energy spent seeking blame in foreign scapegoats should be aimed at Arabs instead. The truth may be ugly, but it is still the truth.

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Old 9th October 2019, 04:11 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Those borders aren't arbitrarily drawn. They follow a simple rule: place centers of population together and draw a border across sparsely populated regions, the desert serves as a natural barrier.

This is so far from the truth concerning the border we are talking about here that I really would like to know how you get that bizarre idea. The many hundred kilometers of the border between Turkey and Syria are drawn along the old Berlin-Baghdad-Railway which goes directly through a couple of pretty large cities which are since then divided, with majority Kurds on both sides. Examples are Tal Abyad with its twin city Akcakale on the Turkish side and Ras Al.-Ayn with its twin city Ceylanpinar (interesting story there). Nobody gave a damn about those people when the border was negotiated between the colonialists.
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Old 9th October 2019, 04:40 AM   #48
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The Washington Pest has no problem printing Erdogan's propaganda minister's bizarre lies and distortions. Disgusting rag.
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Old 9th October 2019, 05:13 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Washington Pest has no problem printing Erdogan's propaganda minister's bizarre lies and distortions. Disgusting rag.
tbh it's an opinion piece and it's clear that the person who wrote it is part of the Turkish regime.
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Old 9th October 2019, 05:18 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
This is so far from the truth concerning the border we are talking about here that I really would like to know how you get that bizarre idea.
That border was determined by war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkis...f_Independence

You might consider war to be random, but arbitrary it was not.

Skyes-Picot agreement that "arbitrarily drew the borders of the region" called a border much further to the north, incorporating most of the Kurds in one state.

But since facts doesn't support the truth that it's all western fault it's best to ignore them.

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Old 9th October 2019, 05:48 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Skyes-Picot agreement that "arbitrarily drew the borders of the region" called a border much further to the north, incorporating most of the Kurds in one state.

But since facts doesn't support the truth that it's all western fault it's best to ignore them.

McHrozni

No, thanks for the correction. I've already updated my chronology on the happenings in Ras al-Ayn seven years ago that shows which weight Turkish claims to fight "terrorist organisations" have. Without them, ISIS would have never gotten as big as it was.
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Last edited by Childlike Empress; 9th October 2019 at 07:07 AM. Reason: seven years, jeez time flies + fix link
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:07 AM   #52
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It has begun. Turkey is invading Syria.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49983357

I would argue this is in the wrong sub-forum. Although there is politics involved, I would say it's more of a current event.
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:32 AM   #53
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Looks extremely bad. Updates from the ground: https://twitter.com/syria_map/status...20349287518209

"Over 200 Turkish warplanes are now in the skies of Northern Syria."
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:38 AM   #54
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If the Kurds, as they promised, abandon all ISIS prisons, it will be on Trump.
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:46 AM   #55
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Turkey, a nominal ally of America, using American-built warplanes, tanks, and guns to attack the other American ally, the Kurds, who also use American built equipment and have actually fought alongside American troops in pursuit of common goals.

In what is some very blatant Orwellian doublespeak, the Turkish government states:

Quote:
The Turkish Defense Ministry said Tuesday that the Turkish Armed Forces is "the only coalition and NATO army fighting the DAESH (ISIS) terrorist group in the Euphrates Shield Operation."
As they pound and attack the group that was fighting and holding territory against ISIS when the Iraqi Army was retreating in blind panic. As the turks attack the group that fought ISIS and held territory against them when the Syrian government ignored ISIS and focused on attacking the other rebel groups (while claiming that it was actually attacking ISIS).

This is depressing. We've got really crappy, in-name-only ally attacking the one really good ally we had in the area, then one that actually has some respect for gender equality, the one that tolerates other religions in the area, the one that fought alongside our troops.
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:49 AM   #56
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Trump claims he 100% defeated IS. Erdogan claims he is invading Syria to fight IS.

One of them is lying.

Or both.
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Old 9th October 2019, 07:53 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Turkey, a nominal ally of America, using American-built warplanes, tanks, and guns to attack the other American ally, the Kurds, who also use American built equipment and have actually fought alongside American troops in pursuit of common goals.

In what is some very blatant Orwellian doublespeak, the Turkish government states:



As they pound and attack the group that was fighting and holding territory against ISIS when the Iraqi Army was retreating in blind panic. As the turks attack the group that fought ISIS and held territory against them when the Syrian government ignored ISIS and focused on attacking the other rebel groups (while claiming that it was actually attacking ISIS).

This is depressing. We've got really crappy, in-name-only ally attacking the one really good ally we had in the area, then one that actually has some respect for gender equality, the one that tolerates other religions in the area, the one that fought alongside our troops.
There's a clear message here.

Ally yourself to President Trump and run the risk of being sacrificed on a whim.
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Old 9th October 2019, 08:11 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Ryokan View Post
Trump claims he 100% defeated IS. Erdogan claims he is invading Syria to fight IS.

One of them is lying.

Or both.
One of them is lying, and so is the other. I wish I believed in hell.
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Old 9th October 2019, 09:25 AM   #59
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Civilian losses reported by the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces.
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Old 9th October 2019, 11:36 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
tbh it's an opinion piece and it's clear that the person who wrote it is part of the Turkish regime.
The guy who wrote that piece is Erdogan's Minister of Information...his Joseph Goebbels.
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Old 9th October 2019, 11:37 AM   #61
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Turkey should be expelled from NATO. Immediately.
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Old 9th October 2019, 11:38 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Turkey, a nominal ally of America, using American-built warplanes, tanks, and guns to attack the other American ally, the Kurds, who also use American built equipment and have actually fought alongside American troops in pursuit of common goals.

In what is some very blatant Orwellian doublespeak, the Turkish government states:



As they pound and attack the group that was fighting and holding territory against ISIS when the Iraqi Army was retreating in blind panic. As the turks attack the group that fought ISIS and held territory against them when the Syrian government ignored ISIS and focused on attacking the other rebel groups (while claiming that it was actually attacking ISIS).

This is depressing. We've got really crappy, in-name-only ally attacking the one really good ally we had in the area, then one that actually has some respect for gender equality, the one that tolerates other religions in the area, the one that fought alongside our troops.

I am beyond disgusted. We won't have an ally left in the world by the time Trump is through.
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:15 PM   #63
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Does anyone have any explanation for this decision to throw the Kurds to the wolves? Did the Kurds refuse to investigate Hunter Biden? Did they fail to meet to up to his political standards by not being run by a brutal dictator?
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:18 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Does anyone have any explanation for this decision to throw the Kurds to the wolves? Did the Kurds refuse to investigate Hunter Biden? Did they fail to meet to up to his political standards by not being run by a brutal dictator?
There is a Trump Towers Istanbul - not something the Kurds can offer in the absence of a sovereign territory.
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:20 PM   #65
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And Trump is saying the state visit of Erdogan to the US next month is on.
I hope some Americans see that Erdogan gets the kind of reception he deserves.
I believe the expression is "take it to the streets".
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:21 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
There is a Trump Towers Istanbul - not something the Kurds can offer in the absence of a sovereign territory.
I hope the Dems add this to the list of things that should be looked at.
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:23 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And Trump is saying the state visit of Erdogan to the US next month is on.
I hope some Americans see that Erdogan gets the kind of reception he deserves.
I believe the expression is "take it to the streets".
Whilst Erdogan is in the US, can we smuggle Gülen Lenin-like into to Turkey to take the throne from him?
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:40 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I hope the Dems add this to the list of things that should be looked at.
That's sort of the problem though, for all the outrage today from the Republicans you know they will all be lining up to defend Trump in a couple of days and there's no way they will actually vote to take any action against him. Soon after that any investigation will be just another 'partisan witch hunt' for his base to ignore.
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:46 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Whilst Erdogan is in the US, can we smuggle Gülen Lenin-like into to Turkey to take the throne from him?
Gülen being a mastermind trying to take over Turkey is mostly a conspiracy theory made up by Erdogan and his cronies. The relationship between them is complicated.
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:52 PM   #70
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Turkey has launched a ground offensive in northern Syria, hours after its warplanes and artillery began hitting territory held by Kurdish-led forces.

Turkish troops and Syrian rebel allies entered the area "east of the Euphrates", Turkish officials said.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the operation was to create a "safe zone" cleared of Kurdish militias which will also house Syrian refugees.

Kurdish-led forces who were key US allies had vowed to resist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49983357
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Old 9th October 2019, 01:54 PM   #71
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The Turks have now sent in the ground troops, after softening up with air strikes and artillery fire.

The casualties are over 40 wounded, with at least 15 killed - 8 of which are civilians.

I'm guessing casualties are not going to be this easy to count going forward.

SDF is mobilizing, and have said they will resist the Turks with everything they've got.

The Kurds are some of the bravest fighters in the world, and are hardened veterans after fighting IS. But the flat terrain in the area is going to heavily favour the Turks, simply because they've got so much more resources and hardware.

I think the best option for the SDF is simply to resist as hard as they can, and hope that the amount of casualties can increase sympathy in the west so hard that EU/NATO is forced to make hard demands of Turkey.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:06 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Ryokan View Post
I think the best option for the SDF is simply to resist as hard as they can, and hope that the amount of casualties can increase sympathy in the west so hard that EU/NATO is forced to make hard demands of Turkey.
The EU and Turkey are hardly on speaking terms after Erdogan's actions in recent years and NATO takes its lead from the USA, so good luck getting Trump to admit he made a mistake.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:10 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
The EU and Turkey are hardly on speaking terms after Erdogan's actions in recent years and NATO takes its lead from the USA, so good luck getting Trump to admit he made a mistake.
What other options do you see?

Not being on speaking terms doesn't mean there aren't still tools in the tool bag to use. The Turkish economy is hanging by a thread, it wouldn't take much to cripple it.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:19 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Ryokan View Post
The Kurds are some of the bravest fighters in the world, and are hardened veterans after fighting IS. But the flat terrain in the area is going to heavily favour the Turks, simply because they've got so much more resources and hardware.[

The Turks won't send a single one of their soldiers until they have to. They have relocated their "moderate rebel" FSA/"Syrian National Army" proxy douchebags (mercenaries and Islamists not tough enough to be in Al-Qaeda) from Idlib, Afrin and the other regions they occupy to Akcakale and Ceylanpinar in recent days. They will die like flies at the hands of the YPG, but there are thousands and thousands of that cannon fodder.

Madness. Tomorrow morning will be a UNSC meeting. In words everyone is against Erdogan's adventure - maybe the booth can take the opportunity to prove that it is still good for something? I believe it when I see it.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:22 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by Ryokan View Post
What other options do you see?

Not being on speaking terms doesn't mean there aren't still tools in the tool bag to use. The Turkish economy is hanging by a thread, it wouldn't take much to cripple it.
There are no options, some things simply can't be fixed. By the time any sanctions are agreed and have an effect Erdogan will have crushed the Kurds and pretty much guaranteed another round of destabilization in Syria.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:26 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Turks won't send a single one of their soldiers until they have to. They have relocated their "moderate rebel" FSA/"Syrian National Army" proxy douchebags (mercenaries and Islamists not tough enough to be in Al-Qaeda) from Idlib, Afrin and the other regions they occupy to Akcakale and Ceylanpinar in recent days. They will die like flies at the hands of the YPG, but there are thousands and thousands of that cannon fodder.

Madness. Tomorrow morning will be a UNSC meeting. In words everyone is against Erdogan's adventure - maybe the booth can take the opportunity to prove that it is still good for something? I believe it when I see it.
I can't say I often agree with you but I fear you are right. There will be a few days of wailing and hand wringing, denunciations of Erdogan and Trump, maybe a UN resolution calling for Turkey to show restraint and respect international law and then, nothing. Trump and Erdogan will march onto whatever bit of scumbaggery they have planned next without a mark on them.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:31 PM   #77
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President Donald Trump on Wednesday continued to defend his decision to withdraw US troops from northeast Syria, abandoning Kurdish forces in the region, by saying the Kurds did not help the US during World War II.
"They didn't help us in the Second World War, they didn't help us with Normandy," Trump said of the Kurds, who played a vital role in the US-led campaign against ISIS.
And when asked by reporters whether he felt the Syria retreat and treatment of the Kurds sent a poor message to other US allies, Trump said, "Alliances are very easy."

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...allies-2019-10
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:45 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
President Donald Trump on Wednesday continued to defend his decision to withdraw US troops from northeast Syria, abandoning Kurdish forces in the region, by saying the Kurds did not help the US during World War II.
"They didn't help us in the Second World War, they didn't help us with Normandy," Trump said of the Kurds, who played a vital role in the US-led campaign against ISIS.
And when asked by reporters whether he felt the Syria retreat and treatment of the Kurds sent a poor message to other US allies, Trump said, "Alliances are very easy."

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...allies-2019-10
When I first read that I still thought it had to be a piece of satire, silly me. The Kurds didn't help the USA in WWII? God help us if he ever finds out about Germany Italy and Japan...
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:54 PM   #79
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He also says
Quote:
they're only interested in fighting for their land. With all of that being said, we like the Kurds.
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Old 9th October 2019, 03:00 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
When I first read that I still thought it had to be a piece of satire, silly me. The Kurds didn't help the USA in WWII? God help us if he ever finds out about Germany Italy and Japan...
For all his " I am trying to bring the boys home" rhetoric,and his reluctance to use military force for fear of political consequences, I firmly believe Trump will get the US into a major war throught his sheer stupidity and ignorance.
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