|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
29th November 2009, 09:21 PM | #161 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
There is a time for deficit spending. Wartime, for example. And during periods of extreme financial crisis which threaten the very fundamentals of economic operation.
This notion that deficit spending is an inherent evil above all others is rather bizarre. In response to the recent financial freeze, Congressional Republicans churned out an alternate proposal which consisted entirely of tax cuts! It was totally insane. That's what adherence to ideology will get you. I'm not saying that the response we got wasn't flawed. It certainly was, and is. But at least it fended off a global meltdown, which the Republican proposal would not have. That's the problem with ideological purity in a nutshell. You get one tool to fix all problems. And that never works. Look, to be viable again, we have to engage with the real world, plain and simple, and that includes dealing with a wide variety of constituencies and making pragmatic compromises. If we don't do that, we're dead. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
29th November 2009, 09:38 PM | #162 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
I agree with you on those points.
Leave marriage to the churches, temples, and mosques, and allow civil unions for pretty much any pair of consenting adults who wants one. No more BS wiretaps, and no more lying about it. FISA already allowed retroactive warrants, so all the smoke and mirrors about responsiveness was just a bunch of baloney. However, we still need sufficient apparatus to actually govern this huge nation and not get steamrolled internationally. The first part of that proposal is, I have to say, nothing but fantasy. The "invisible hand" theory has long been debunked. There is no magic in benign-neglect capitalism. It leads to boom-and-bust cycles, economy-wrecking bubbles, and rampant corruption. As for the bailouts, we learned our lesson with Lehman. Allowing those big firms to fail would be like throwing mutineers off a ship while they're shackled by the leg to the rest of the crew. Satisfying for a split second, but quickly resulting in the loss of the ship. Were the bailouts distasteful? Absolutely. Were they bungled? In many ways, yes. But that said, there's no doubt that some form of financial infusion was 100% necessary. And if we don't pick up the reins, and instead allow things to go back the way they were, with shadow markets and lax oversight -- or, worse, if we deregulate even further -- there is no doubt we'll soon come right back to where we were. Only this time, we won't be able to swing the bailout, and we'll all sink. Balanced budget? I'm all for it, as soon as it can be responsibly done. Yeah, I'm agreed there. And I think most in Washington are on board with that. I believe the Bush administration was an abberation on that count. Because Bush was so weak when it came to anything military, his cabinet was key. Unfortunately, with a few notable exception, his advisors consisted primarily of the extremists left over from his father's administration -- men like Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz, who had outlandish ideas that quite rightly had been blocked by cooler heads under Bush Sr., but who in Jr's administration were given free rein to implement these half-baked notions, with the results we have seen. If you want a horrific example of why pragmatism is better than ideological purity, you have to look no further than the Iraq war. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 05:24 AM | #163 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 05:32 AM | #164 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
If you really want to debate that fine, but this isn't the thread for yet another abortion debate. OF course it isn't exactly goverment doing anything, rather not banning something.
Quote:
Quote:
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 05:35 AM | #165 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
But look at what happens every time you get three major parties, the two that are the most similar lose. That is why there never have been and never will be three major parties in the US for any length of time. Three parties are unstable, one will disolve and some of its platform will be taken up by at least one of the other parties.
Quote:
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 05:41 AM | #166 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 05:45 AM | #167 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 08:51 AM | #168 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
The "winner-take-all" system is what does it; that's actually a mathematical theorem (coalitions are unstable in a winner take all system, so the stable equilibrium is a set of two parties). You can find a non-mathematical explanation here if you like.
|
30th November 2009, 08:53 AM | #169 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 10:32 AM | #170 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
I don't think that's the problem.
It seems to me that either a third party withers on the vine or starts gaining steam. If it gets any momentum, the other 2 parties simply incorporate the most attractive bits of their platform into their platforms (or one of them does) and draws away enough support so that they become non-viable. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 10:34 AM | #171 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
|
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 10:37 AM | #172 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
30th November 2009, 10:41 AM | #173 |
Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,527
|
|
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
|
30th November 2009, 10:45 AM | #174 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
As did Specter. His own party was caucusing against him, so his choice was to retire or switch.
And the Limbaughs of the world cheered. Good riddance, they said. That's all fine and well for them, because when the GOP is on the ropes it actually fires up their audience and they get richer. It's happening right now. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 11:02 AM | #175 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Originally Posted by Piggy
Originally Posted by Piggy
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 11:02 AM | #176 |
Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,527
|
What's that old adage?
Follow the money. I confirmed for myself what Limbaugh was up to during Ahnold's run for California Governator: stirring up the pot was the most important thing for Rush, since Clinton was no longer in office for Rush to play his "shafting of America" schtick on. His business model is so good, Glenn Beck has adopted it. DR |
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
|
30th November 2009, 12:08 PM | #177 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Originally Posted by Piggy
As for the bailouts, I'm not totally convinced they were necessary, partially because there is no way to prove the doomsday scenarios used to scare us into supporting them.
Quote:
Quote:
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 12:29 PM | #178 |
Becoming Beth
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility (USA, sort of)
Posts: 27,292
|
|
__________________
"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep." "Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation." |
|
30th November 2009, 12:43 PM | #179 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Explain how that happened in Iraq, please? We are probably playing with semantics. I view the "shower us with roses" summation of war strategy and an over-reliance on shady exiles as incompetent methodology. Perhaps that is an extension of ideology. Yet, even though one would be ideologically decided to invade Iraq, there is no reason to remain ignorant of the facts known before the war, or dismiss the widespread looting and chaos as nothing of consequence.
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 12:50 PM | #180 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,606
|
They just keep painting themselves closer to the farthest right corner of the room,don't they?
|
30th November 2009, 02:06 PM | #181 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
Ah, yes. The "you can't prove to me there's no Bigfoot" argument.
Quote:
Of course, having said, that, the party is no longer going, and it's the Fed's job (and the government's) to bring the punch bowl back. Until the party starts up again, when they should take it away and start collecting tips to use to buy another bowl twenty years from now.....
Quote:
|
30th November 2009, 03:14 PM | #182 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Originally Posted by drkitten
Quote:
Quote:
1) The government has bought a crappy punch bowl. I don't think they're up to the task. 2) The government never had the money to buy the punch bowl in the first place, and I doubt they will twenty years from now at their current mindset.
Quote:
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 03:21 PM | #183 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
Because that's an unrepresentative sample. What was your phrasing? "We will never have a balanced budget if we keep throwing our money away. This is something that most people in Congress can't grasp."
First, I don't see that qualifier in there anywhere. But more importantly, claiming that we will "never" have something because "most" Congressmen in the past ten years don't grasp it is like my claiming that we will never have summer again because most of the past week has been cold and rainy. The past ten years have been largely dictated by one of the least competent presidents in the history of the United States running up enormous deficits and creating an economic and political cesspool that will take both time and money to clean up.
Quote:
Quote:
The problem was not what he wanted, but what he thought would happen. His ideology dictated that it would turn around, even when it demonstrably wasn't turning around. I might want a position as the President's National Science Advisor, but only a lunatic would believe that I am or even that I will get it. |
30th November 2009, 03:24 PM | #184 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
Yup. An appropriate response to a non-sequitur that attempts to inappropriately move the goalposts. If you want to know what would have happened without the stimulus, consult the various economists. There's a pretty universal consensus by now that the stimulus has worked but wasn't big enough and therefore the recovery is going to be pretty anemic.
Epistemologically, that's no more controversial than the idea that if I hadn't operated on your cancer, it would have spread and killed you. Of course, no oncologist can prove that, but that's hardly a reason to dismiss your doctor's opinion. |
30th November 2009, 03:41 PM | #185 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Originally Posted by drkitten
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
ETA
Quote:
The problem with that is those same policymakers who drafted the stimulus predicted unemployment without the stimulus that was lower than actual unemployment with the stimulus. There's also the matter of no evidence that the stimulus actually was cost-effective, or did what it was claimed to have done. |
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 03:47 PM | #186 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
Actually, the spending was for the most part there, with the exception of the military spending.
Quote:
What destroyed the surplus was not primarily a sudden upsurge in spending, but the irresponsible (and ideologically driven) tax cuts pushed through by Bush. It's not that spending went up, but that revenues went down -- at the very time they should have been going up, to bring the housing boom under control. Which, again, is a triumph of ideology over facts.
Quote:
|
30th November 2009, 03:49 PM | #187 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
Yes. You may have also heard that the Steelers won the Superbowl and that Prince Charles is heir apparent to the throne of the UK. Depending upon where you heard it -- for example, if you read it in a reliable and reputable source, you might even consider reading the rest of the article and seeing why they say it.
Quote:
Quote:
|
30th November 2009, 03:56 PM | #188 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
Originally Posted by drkitten
Quote:
Bush's lack of fiscal discipline did indeed cause substantial deficits, but those indiscretions are now looking like the tip of the iceberg. Both incidents are problems. ETA: and again, it's too bad conservatives ignored the lack of fiscal discipline until a member of the other side got into office. ETA II: Bush, with the help of a Democratic congress, pushed the bailouts through. He shares much of the blame.
Quote:
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 03:59 PM | #189 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
|
|
30th November 2009, 04:14 PM | #190 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
|
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:16 PM | #191 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
ETA: That darn graph stopped showing up.
Quote:
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 04:18 PM | #192 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 04:19 PM | #193 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
Actually, there is a way of demonstrating that we were on the verge of financial freeze.
But it requires more reading than you may be up for. And unfortunately, I don't have the time to dredge it all up, so I'll have to leave it at that. If you actually look at the details of what went on, it's frightening as hell, and I'm still surprised that we've come out this well so far. If you're interested, Frontline's "Inside the Meltdown" is a good place to start. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:22 PM | #194 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
|
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:24 PM | #195 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
|
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:28 PM | #196 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
Opponents of stimulus now find their butts in a pretty tight crack right now.
We saw some economic growth last quarter, and it's pretty much agreed all around that it's due to stimulus, and it will take a while longer for real growth to kick in. So if you claim the stimulus failed, you have nowhere to go. If you deny that the stimulus is responsible for propping up the economy (that is, stopping the freefall) then your only option is to claim that the apparent bounce is real, which means the stimulus didn't fail. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:29 PM | #197 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 04:33 PM | #198 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 899
|
|
__________________
A joke is a very serious thing. -Winston Churchill |
|
30th November 2009, 04:47 PM | #199 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
I've never said that, although it's certainly true that Palin whipped them into a frenzy.
In fact, Palin was the wrong strategy because Obama's candidacy had already brought out the base in force. Palin was redundant in that regard, and only served to alienate the voters McCain really needed -- middle-of-the-road independents and Reagan Democrats. The problem now is that ideological extremism by the GOP has left the remaining seats dependent on the far right-wing fringe, the kind of folks who cheer Palin, leave Fox News playing on their TVs all day, and believe Glenn Beck's nonsense. That's why this purity test is the wrong move. It goes farther in the direction that has already cost us the White House and Congress. |
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
30th November 2009, 04:49 PM | #200 |
Unlicensed street skeptic
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 15,905
|
|
__________________
. How can you expect to be rescued if you don’t put first things first and act proper? |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|