|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
26th January 2010, 03:00 AM | #1 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
Will The GOP Win Back the Senate in 2010?
I'll admit, I thought this far-fetched; after all, because of the 6-year cycle on Senate seats, the Republicans are defending a lot more seats than the Democrats based on the 2004 elections.
But consider that the Republicans took the "people's" seat in Massachusetts. Consider that Joe Biden's son decided not to run for his old man's job in Delaware, despite the obvious advantages that the Democrats usually have in that state. Marc Ambinder (a liberal pundit at the Atlantic, but I repeat myself) says:
Quote:
Quote:
It's still a very tough row to hoe. Of course, if Joe Lieberman decides that he really is an old-fashioned Republican, that's one fewer seat needed. |
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
26th January 2010, 06:01 AM | #2 |
Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,527
|
No.
59-41 1/3 seats available Need to keep all 41, win ten more outright, to make it 51-49. Need to unseat 10/33 incumbents in one fell swoop. Absent a collosal screw up in the Democratic Party, or a scandal of major magnitude, I don't see it, particularly as the Dems were given a wake up call in MA regarding complacency. Only way to do this? Get all the people who don't normally vote, to vote and vote for the GOP candidate. Not holding my breath, as a decent percentage of non voters are in the 18-25 demographic. The "Throw the bums out, but not our bums" message is one of the trickiest to manage in politics, and can backfire. DR |
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
|
26th January 2010, 07:07 AM | #3 |
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Where the Old Man of the Mountain used to stand
Posts: 58,585
|
United States Senate elections, 2010
Quote:
|
__________________
Being the victim of genocidal atrocities does not give you free reign to commit your own genocidal atrocities. When Republican politicians were young, they were the kids who watched James Bond movies and said "I want to grow up to be just like [insert name of villain here]." |
|
26th January 2010, 08:32 AM | #4 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,918
|
no. dems may lose another seat...maybe even two. but will keep the majority.
|
26th January 2010, 10:11 AM | #5 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
It's not 59-41; that's brought up constantly and it's wrong. It's 57-41-2 and Joe Lieberman is about as unreliable a Democrat as can be imagined. Sanders I will grant you.
My current prediction is 51-47-2, Democrats. |
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
26th January 2010, 01:02 PM | #6 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Front Range, CO
Posts: 10,493
|
Never underestimate the fickle nature of the U.S. electorate.
|
__________________
For 15 years I never put anyone on ignore. I felt it important to see everyone's view point. Finally I realized the value of some views can be measured in negative terms and were personally destructive. |
|
27th January 2010, 09:11 AM | #7 |
Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,814
|
Ok, if there are 100 senators, how come there are 36 seats up for vote this cycle? There should be 33 or 34, if it were distributed properly.
|
__________________
"Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales now! More, cheaper, better games, right? Right? |
|
27th January 2010, 11:12 AM | #8 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
28th January 2010, 07:46 AM | #9 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
David Vitter is probably toast now, after the arrest of pimp boy OKeefe.
|
28th January 2010, 10:56 AM | #10 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,856
|
Add one more Dem Senator to the pile of unsafe seats.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...sconsin_senate
Quote:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ifornia_senate
Quote:
|
29th January 2010, 10:22 AM | #11 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
Yes, I hope so.
Being a Libertarian, I find gridlock between the Dems (tax & spenders) and the GOP (just spenders) to generally be a good thing. The US Constitution and States' Rights have been trodden upon enough. |
29th January 2010, 05:04 PM | #12 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cali Four Neea
Posts: 1,677
|
They may defeat a few conservative Democrats, but overall, I'd say that the Democrats will retain a solid lead in the Senate.
|
29th January 2010, 06:19 PM | #13 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
Actually, Brown may prove to be an albatross around the GOP's neck.
He is begining to look like a clown. He is going to be watched more closely than he probably wants. David "Diapers" Vitter is in trouble, and may wind up wearing some of the mud that gets dug up in the Louisianna Federal Prosecutor's office. The Dems may very well have a good weapon to use against the GOP. The GOPers are acting like little babies throwing a tantrum, and more and more of them are getting caught acting like perverts and whoremongers. The religious right is begining to crumble. If the unions get their acts together, the fundies will become irrelevant. Don't make predicitions based on the old power structures. |
2nd February 2010, 10:28 AM | #14 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
2nd February 2010, 11:49 AM | #15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
Actually, speculating now before the Senate has even held any kind of hearings on the tax bill would be premature.
If the Senate GOP goes the now-predictable course of having a tantrum, they will go home to a lot of working class voters wanting to know why the GOP wants tax cuts for the rich instead of for the unemployed. I don't think they are going to get away with little-boys antics again. |
2nd February 2010, 12:00 PM | #16 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
|
2nd February 2010, 07:04 PM | #17 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
|
3rd February 2010, 05:48 AM | #18 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
Your statement above would've been more accurate if you had just said "Government spent like mad."
Most ordinary people understand what a "nest egg" or "a rainy day" means. The U.S. Government obviously does not. Lastly, economic prosperity should never be a valid reason for "mad" spending of taxpayer's dollars... |
3rd February 2010, 06:01 AM | #19 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
I am referring to the Eisenhower years, when we were still building infrastructure and we still had an industrial base.
And the people who were making the profits from that spending were paying the taxes to keep it going. Kenedy cut the taxes , but closed the loopholes that kept the really rich from paying their share, and the ecconomy continued to grow And the people had the extra money to build a nest egg. Then there was a war that drained away our prosperity, and then an idiot president sold us a pile of woo called supply-side ecconiomics and stopped collecting the taxes to pay for government operations. You must be either too young to have gone through this or too old to remember much.
Quote:
Next time the victims of the crash might just decide capitalism is not worth ther emotional roller coaster any more and just kill and eat the entrepreneurial class and start all over with something else. |
3rd February 2010, 06:12 AM | #20 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
|
3rd February 2010, 06:19 AM | #21 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
|
3rd February 2010, 06:57 AM | #22 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
Bull flops. Government builds infrastructure and maintains order so that capitalism may occur.
And, quite frankly, some forms of capitalism need to be strangled for the good of civilization. Whoever invented the derivatives market should be exiled to an island far removed from the rest of mankind to live on what they can forage after the harm they have done to the working people of this country.
Quote:
To the rest of humanity, it sounds like history. Learn some. |
3rd February 2010, 08:17 AM | #23 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
|
3rd February 2010, 08:26 AM | #24 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,279
|
|
3rd February 2010, 11:06 AM | #25 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post's The Fix blog catches on to the possibility that the Republicans could take over the upper chamber:
Quote:
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
3rd February 2010, 12:04 PM | #26 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,208
|
The only real chance the Republicans have is a double dip recession. They have been throwing around a lot of fear and confusion regarding the economy, but a normal recovery will really come back to bite them.
First of all the election will be held on a year long strong of good economic news. Even if unemployment remains high the economy will be clearly heading in the right direction, always a better indicator for the party in power then the current state of the economy. Second the dire predictions will be fresh in peoples mind. Failed predictions and opposition to polices that worked don’t garner much confidence. The final problem Republicans face in a national election is that the policies they support are harebrained and can’t stand up to any critical analysis. You can’t cut spending by 20 billion, cut taxes by 200 billion and move towards a balanced budget, and most people realize it. |
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen" |
|
3rd February 2010, 12:14 PM | #27 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
|
The other problem the GOP may have is if the likes of Rand Paul in Kentucky get the nominations, they are going to lose the political center. It might be a case of "I don't like the Dem candidate that much, but compared to that nutjob".
If the Tea Party becomes perceived as the face of the GOP, they will have minimum gains at best come november. This is not to defend the Dems. They talked big in 2008, but have accomplished little, and they have only the incompetence of their congressional leadership to blame. Still, they might look better then the GOP come November. |
3rd February 2010, 05:09 PM | #28 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,863
|
The GOP will also look like a pack of clowns if they insist on renewing the tax cuts for professional investors and deny the targetted tax breaks that will encourage small businesses.I think people have figured out that throwing money at the top of the food chain and taking it from the bottom is kind of bass ackwards, but all they will get from the GOP.
|
4th February 2010, 01:16 PM | #29 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,049
|
I think it's highly unlikely they'll win either back. They'll probably make gains in both houses of congress though.
|
4th February 2010, 02:08 PM | #30 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
|
|
15th February 2010, 03:07 PM | #31 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
Current odds at InTrade show the GOP chance of taking back the Senate moving up sharply in the wake of Bayh's resignation. Last trade shows the GOP at 35 cents, with the Democrats at 65 cents.
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
15th February 2010, 03:42 PM | #32 |
Intellectual Gladiator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 15,948
|
Over at IEM, here are the numbers:
Dems Gain 2.5% Dems Hold 76.1% Dems Lose 22.0% Still an uphill battle for the GOP. They've got a better shot at the House, though that is also an uphill battle. |
__________________
Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher "We ****** up the air, the water, we ****** up each other. Why don't we just finish the job by flushing our brains down the toilet?" -- John Trent, In the Mouth of Madness |
|
15th February 2010, 04:12 PM | #33 |
Muse
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 630
|
53-45-2 Dems after the election if nothing changes. But way too early to tell given what may or what may happen. I will guarantee that the GOP will pick up at least 2 seats.
|
15th February 2010, 05:12 PM | #34 |
Guest
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 7,149
|
The key to the 'kick the bums out but not our bums' message is to appear essentially powerless, so that the 'kick the bums out' can convincingly bypass the 'good, hardworking people stifled by bums.'
The GOP has effectively sabotaged this by blowing anything they had resembling political capital on stalling health care, which may turn out to be the wrong fight for them. If they'd let Obama pass a watered down system, he'd have looked ineffective, but with it looking like it'll get passed over their heads, they're just going to look obstructionist. |
15th February 2010, 07:16 PM | #35 |
Intellectual Gladiator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 15,948
|
|
__________________
Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher "We ****** up the air, the water, we ****** up each other. Why don't we just finish the job by flushing our brains down the toilet?" -- John Trent, In the Mouth of Madness |
|
16th February 2010, 10:22 AM | #36 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
InTrade has contracts on how many seats the GOP will hold after the election; right now the median contract is 48+, which is currently priced at 52 cents.
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
16th February 2010, 05:22 PM | #37 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,691
|
Slightly OT, but I'm surprised at how steady Obama's approval rating has been, even through arguably the worst month in his Presidency. It's currently on 52% and has been drifting around there for some time. He even leads a hypothetical Republican candidate in 2012 by a few points.
|
__________________
Man's material discoveries have outpaced his moral progress. - Clement Attlee, 1945 |
|
16th February 2010, 07:11 PM | #38 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
|
|
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|