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9th September 2010, 11:32 AM | #41 |
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9th September 2010, 11:37 AM | #42 |
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9th September 2010, 11:43 AM | #43 |
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If Palin does decide to run, I honestly can't imagine her getting through the primaries without self-destructing.
My guess is Romney. |
9th September 2010, 11:50 AM | #44 |
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Technically? Having a TV show doesn't mean what the Huck is next in the GOP line of succession. Republican presidential candidates line up for 2012 race "Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the nominal GOP front-runner" http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...022103689.html |
9th September 2010, 11:51 AM | #45 |
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9th September 2010, 11:52 AM | #46 |
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If Beck or Palin becomes the next POTUS, I will move out of the country.
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9th September 2010, 12:04 PM | #47 |
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That's not what it means, though I can't account for what Cicero thinks it means, since he's rarely correct about anything. The GOP has tended to pick people who are establishment picks or whose "time has come," kind of characters. Bush II was an establishment pick whose time hadn't come, and never would have in a sane world. But Reagan, Bush I, Dole and McCain were definite time-has-comers. This of course has little value in prediction anyway. |
9th September 2010, 12:06 PM | #48 |
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9th September 2010, 12:10 PM | #49 |
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Romney finished 2nd in New Hampshire's Republican primary. That is the one that matters.
The last three presidents (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama) finished second in the New Hampshire Primary before later being elected to the presidency, while the previous 4 before that (excluding Ford, who was not elected) won the New Hampshire Primary. |
9th September 2010, 12:12 PM | #50 |
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9th September 2010, 12:15 PM | #51 |
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Conventional wisdom would certainly dictate that Romney's "time has come" but again I have to stress that the strength of the TP movement will be the decisive factor in determining the next GOP nominee. Romney is not and never will be TP-approved.
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9th September 2010, 12:17 PM | #52 |
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I'm not sure Romney could ever win over the fundamentalist segment of the Republican party; his Mormonism seems to be a deal-breaker. Not sure that adding Huckabee to the ticket would make Mittens any more electable to the fundie base.
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9th September 2010, 12:19 PM | #53 |
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It's hard to say this far in advance. I thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in to win her party's nomination until she didn't win it.
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9th September 2010, 12:21 PM | #54 |
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Tea-baggery will have served its purpose after this November, and will be replaced with the regular GOP party operations that it was standing in for all along. For one thing, it's starting to knock off too many standard-bearers and establishment picks (Bennett, Inglis, Scozzofava, Murkowski, Grayson, Crist, etc). They're going to put that dog back on a leash starting Nov 3. I assume that Dick Armey has wrap-up procedures well planned. |
9th September 2010, 12:24 PM | #55 |
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To be more precise, she was a shoo-in until Obama decided 8 years ahead of time that his time had come. Even though the interest in and energy around Obama was an obvious force right from the early mentioning stages, so many of the Democratic establishment were stuck in Hillary-inevitability mode. |
9th September 2010, 12:27 PM | #56 |
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9th September 2010, 12:27 PM | #57 |
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9th September 2010, 12:31 PM | #58 |
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9th September 2010, 12:36 PM | #59 |
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9th September 2010, 01:03 PM | #60 |
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I agree. Whether or not the GOP retakes the U.S. House, I think the TP folks are going to be a thorn in everyone's side (especially the Republican establishment's) for some time to come. I see them flexing their collective muscle once again in the 2012 GOP primaries.
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9th September 2010, 01:05 PM | #61 |
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9th September 2010, 02:42 PM | #62 |
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9th September 2010, 02:43 PM | #63 |
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9th September 2010, 02:45 PM | #64 |
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Then you have the possibility of a Ross Perot canidate..a independent who will run on a "I am not either of those turkeys" platform. That could have an impact.
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9th September 2010, 02:52 PM | #65 |
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9th September 2010, 03:09 PM | #66 |
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The tea party runs on publicity not money. Would they stop receiving publicity without Fox News promoting them? Eventually sure.
The question is what does the teabagger do when they are left behind watching from the sidelines as the Republicans they supported try do distance themselves from them? Do they vote republican? Do they just on some third party bandwagon? Do they vote at all I kind of suspect they will just stay home and stew. |
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9th September 2010, 03:18 PM | #67 |
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I might make the argument that November might be a lose/lose for the Tea Party.
If the GOP takes the HOuse, a lot of the urgency to "Stop Obama" will vanish,the paranoia factor will go down,and, most of all, the Tea Party will actually have to produce policy rather then anger. Look for SOcial Security and Medicare to be breakers for the Tea Party. If the GOP fails to take the House, look for the blame to be placed on Tea Party Extremism having scared voters off,and a lot of the tolerence for their antics from mainstream conservatives will stop. |
9th September 2010, 04:36 PM | #68 |
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9th September 2010, 04:50 PM | #69 |
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9th September 2010, 05:05 PM | #70 |
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9th September 2010, 05:07 PM | #71 |
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9th September 2010, 05:11 PM | #72 |
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9th September 2010, 05:11 PM | #73 |
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9th September 2010, 05:23 PM | #74 |
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9th September 2010, 05:27 PM | #75 |
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A ability to be realistic and remember that Politics is the art of the possible. If the past year has shown anything, it is that the USA is not ready to go as far to the left as you seem to want it to go. Have fun joining the that 1 or 2 % voting for Nader in 2012. Any third party candidate who would stand a chance of making it will run on a centrist, "I am not either of those guys" platform. |
9th September 2010, 05:31 PM | #76 |
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Well, I will say what I usually say when discussing presidential primaries: I would like to see the GOP nominate a good, solid, socially moderate candidate. I nearly jumped for joy when the Republicans selected McCain in 2008, and I then shrugged off any thought of voting for him once he caved to the religious & social wingnuts and selected Quitter Palin as his running mate.
I tend to agree here with the consensus that the only real electable Republican in 2012 is going to be Romney; I still think that Obama would win against Romney, but it would be closer than with someone else like Palin or Huckabee. At least, that's how it appears so far from where I sit. |
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9th September 2010, 05:36 PM | #77 |
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And that's going to piss off a LOT of people, if it goes the way you think. Kind of makes you wonder what they (the GOP) would have to pull out of their hat for 2012. Should be interesting to see
Agreed. But that's one reason I don't think the GOP leadership is simply going to cut loose the Tea Party folks right after the 2010 elections. They remember all too well how the independence of the Reform Party in the 1990s hurt them - they'll hold onto the TP folks precisely to keep them from going independent. But in the process they will be catering to a shrinking demographic, for reasons outlined in other posts in the thread. |
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9th September 2010, 05:44 PM | #78 |
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SO fringe right and right are the only viable choices, or merely the only choices the current political establishments are giving us?
In the late sixties my political and economic considerations were considered firmly Right and I was to the right of most Republican candidates and elected officials, my positions have refined a bit over the last 40 years but undergone no drastic changes, by the time Clinton was elected, the spectrum had shifted so far that I found myself slightly to the left of Clinton on many of these same issues,...and now I am apparently fringe left with the same perspectives and considerations. The media and both political parties have knocked things so out of kilter that I don't expect things to get better any longer, I just hope they don't kill us all in their self absorbed insanity. |
9th September 2010, 06:08 PM | #79 |
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I think the GOP leadership is banking on, if they win the House, a lot of the over the top rhetoric will go away since the Obama agenda has been "stopped",and most of the Tea Party can be eased into more traditional conservitive politics.
I am also curious as to how many of the new crop of GOP candidates are hard core Tea Party types, and how many just said that to win the primaries? What is fascinating is Angle in Nevada, who was a Tea Party Icon, is now spending all of her time yelling "I am Mainstream" and who has already backed down from some of her more radical statements. I got a feeling she has already been Turned into an establishment Republican.... |
9th September 2010, 08:19 PM | #80 |
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