2018 mid-term election

[acbytesla]

Originally Posted by Brainster

Blackburn is leading in the live NY Times poll by a whopping 17%. Sounds like Taylor Swift will be the one heartbroken on Election Day. Maybe she can turn it into a song.

No offense specifically to you. But I swear I've read dozens of posts lately by Republicans/Trump supporters in this forum about how the polls mean nothing since we are seeing a lot of reporting about a blue wave yet I see the same posters trotting out the polls/articles showing that their candidate is leading. I wouldn't call it hypocritical, but I would argue it's selective.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by acbytesla

No offense specifically to you. But I swear I've read dozens of posts lately by Republicans/Trump supporters in this forum about how the polls mean nothing since we are seeing a lot of reporting about a blue wave yet I see the same posters trotting out the polls/articles showing that their candidate is leading. I wouldn't call it hypocritical, but I would argue it's selective.

Look, both sides will say that there's only one poll that matters when they think they are behind. I don't mind saying that in the last 45 days or so I pretty much concluded that the Blue Wave was real. And in a sense I think it still is. I think the Democrats are probably going to take back the House. But I also think that the Kavanaugh thing is backfiring big time on the Democrats in the Senate.

Bredesen, the Democrat in the Tennessee race, is a popular two-term governor. But to give you an idea of how bad the polling must have been last week, he came out and said he would have voted in favor of Kavanaugh for the SC. It does not seem to have helped (in fact it might have cost him some supporters).

So that's one of the upsets the Democrats had hoped to pull off apparently gone a-glimmering. Meanwhile in North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp (who voted against Kavanaugh) is having to do similar things, like disavowing Hillary Clinton's remarks on how there is no way to bring back civility to politics without getting rid of the Republicans. But she is toast unless the blue wave is tidal in nature, and she's a lost seat for the Democrats, meaning they have to pick up 3 seats that are currently being held by Republicans while not losing any more than ND.

The race to succeed Jeff Flake in Arizona is also getting tighter. Kirsten Sinema had been leading pretty frequently in the polls, but Martha McSally is suddenly getting a boost, and this was before the local news reported that Sinema had promoted an event featuring convicted terrorist supporter Lynne Stewart. Gosh darn those old Yahoo Listservs!

Quote:

U.S. Democratic Senate hopeful Kyrsten Sinema promoted events at Arizona State University featuring a lawyer convicted for aiding an Islamist terror organization and its leader.

Sinema, a co-founder of the activist group Local to Global Justice, invited people in a now-closed Yahoo group to attend two events with Lynn Stewart, both in 2003.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by Tony99

That exact exchange with my 88 year old mom this weekend.

Her: Is there something you can do about all these calls I get on my "home" phone? I'm on the do not call list! The only calls I get are from sales people and people with heavy accents I can't understand.

Me: Why do you still have a "home" phone? Does so-and-so, or so-and-so ever call you on that phone?

Her: Well no, they all call my cell or text.

Me: Seems like you could save some money by getting rid of your "home" phone.

Her: But what if its an emergency?

To keep it on topic she, will vote a straight R ticket in November.

See if her landline service supports NoMoRobo.

Then get her to activate it. It works pretty well. I only get a few unsolicited calls of that sort make it through in any given month.

[Brainster]

Beto O'Rourke raised over $38 million in the third quarter. And Democrats everywhere are going to rue all the funds spent on this race, as Cruz has begun to extend his lead. How bad is it? Politico actually published a piece begging the national media not to profile Beto anymore.

Quote:

In some ways, the O’Rourke campaign is a replay of Wendy Davis’ failed 2014 run for the Texas governorship, another liberal-against-conservative contest in which the Democrat was buoyed by a flotilla of encouraging East Coast coverage. But today’s Quinnipiac University Poll put O’Rourke down 9 points against Cruz, with Cruz trending up. If the poll holds, Texas will not transmogrify into California this election cycle and the attempt to run a Brooklyn campaign against his Texas opponent will have failed again.

[Delphic Oracle]

This is the state that thought Obama was planning to invade them.

I was never holding my breath to begin with.

[Brainster]

Sinema's past is catching up to her. She was interviewed back in 2003 on a radio show with local Libertarian flake Ernie Hancock:

Quote:

"By force?" Hancock asked. "By me, as an individual, if I want to go fight in the Taliban army, I go over there and I'm fighting for the Taliban. I'm saying that's a personal decision..."
"Fine," Sinema interjected, "I don't care if you want to do that, go ahead."

CNN also mentions Sinema co-hosting an Air America radio show with Jeff Farias, a local 9-11 Truth nutter, although they note that they can find no indication that they discussed his crazy theories while she was on the show. I searched the SLC archives and found several posts where we mentioned Farias, but none where Sinema's name came up.

She also apparently gave a speech at the Netroots Nation conference where she joked that Arizona was the meth lab of democracy. That's the kind of gag that might go over big with the Kos Kids, but could make her a harder sell in Phoenix.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

This is the state that thought Obama was planning to invade them.

I was never holding my breath to begin with.

The Plan is ready to go in case O'Rourke doesn't win.
Hillary just has to say the right word on TV and all the Sleeper-FEMA soldiers in Texas will activate.

[River]

Originally Posted by Travis

Taylor Swift is breaking a lot of Nazi hearts coming out against Marsha Blackburn.

Quote:

So much of the push towards voter registration is directed at blacks and other people of color, but we ain’t the problem. When we vote, the vast majority of us take a look at the ballot box and choose the candidates who are the most sane and the least evil. Even with the ****** choices we’re so often given, 90 percent of us still manage to choose the right ones.

Maybe we’re getting it all wrong. Maybe instead of trying to get more of us to vote, the push should be to get less of them to vote. Maybe on Election Day, we should erect targeted barricades at each and every crucible of whiteness, from Cracker Barrel to Lululemon, so they can’t escape until voting is over

Theroot keeping it classy on Swifts remarks. (much like other democrats)

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by River

Theroot keeping it classy on Swifts remarks. (much like other democrats)

She is not a democrat.

[River]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

She is not a democrat.

Quote:

In her post Sunday, Swift vowed to vote for two Democratic candidates: former governor Phil Bredesen for the Senate and Rep. Jim Cooper for reelection.

First time I've seen Swift be vocal about politics. Voting democrat. She claims to vote by candidate. So do I. I bet you would not call me independent or anything but GOP based on this election cycle. (because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by River

First time I've seen Swift be vocal about politics. Voting democrat. She claims to vote by candidate. So do I. I bet you would not call me independent or anything but GOP based on this election cycle. (because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

[River]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

I agree both parties need work. Less religious zealots on GOP. However, with the current DNC agenda and supporters -- I'm out until it changes. (this is coming from someone that voted for Obama twice)

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Quote:

(because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

Now to be fair, River never did say how he wan'ted the Democrats to reform.

He may say "I want them to reform by getting rid of all those pesky civil rights, and start hating gay people again, and throwing children in cages (if they're the wrong color)".

[JoeMorgue]

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

While I agree with points 1-3, on point 4 I have to wonder:
- How are you defining 'significant' increase voter turnout?
- Are you comparing this midterm's voter turnout with the last major election in 2016 or with previous midterms (which on average have lower turnouts)?

I can see an increase in voter turnout compared to to 2014, although I don't think it will made a major difference in the results (with Republican gerrymandering and voter supression.)

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

While I agree with points 1-3, on point 4 I have to wonder:
- How are you defining 'significant' increase voter turnout?
- Are you comparing this midterm's voter turnout with the last major election in 2016 or with previous midterms (which on average have lower turnouts)?

I can see an increase in voter turnout compared to to 2014, although I don't think it will made a major difference in the results (with Republican gerrymandering and voter supression.)

I'd expect a decrease in voter turnout, because it's not a Presidential election year. That MAY affect R's more than D's, because they don't have Trump to vote for. Or not. Possibly wishful thinking on my part.

ETA: Oops, didn't see Segnosaur specified 2014. That was a somewhat dull year, so I can see an increase over that.