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#521 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 20,426
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No offense specifically to you. But I swear I've read dozens of posts lately by Republicans/Trump supporters in this forum about how the polls mean nothing since we are seeing a lot of reporting about a blue wave yet I see the same posters trotting out the polls/articles showing that their candidate is leading. I wouldn't call it hypocritical, but I would argue it's selective.
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“ A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. ” ― David Hume |
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#522 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 16,121
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Look, both sides will say that there's only one poll that matters when they think they are behind. I don't mind saying that in the last 45 days or so I pretty much concluded that the Blue Wave was real. And in a sense I think it still is. I think the Democrats are probably going to take back the House. But I also think that the Kavanaugh thing is backfiring big time on the Democrats in the Senate.
Bredesen, the Democrat in the Tennessee race, is a popular two-term governor. But to give you an idea of how bad the polling must have been last week, he came out and said he would have voted in favor of Kavanaugh for the SC. It does not seem to have helped (in fact it might have cost him some supporters). So that's one of the upsets the Democrats had hoped to pull off apparently gone a-glimmering. Meanwhile in North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp (who voted against Kavanaugh) is having to do similar things, like disavowing Hillary Clinton's remarks on how there is no way to bring back civility to politics without getting rid of the Republicans. But she is toast unless the blue wave is tidal in nature, and she's a lost seat for the Democrats, meaning they have to pick up 3 seats that are currently being held by Republicans while not losing any more than ND. The race to succeed Jeff Flake in Arizona is also getting tighter. Kirsten Sinema had been leading pretty frequently in the polls, but Martha McSally is suddenly getting a boost, and this was before the local news reported that Sinema had promoted an event featuring convicted terrorist supporter Lynne Stewart. Gosh darn those old Yahoo Listservs!
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My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
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#523 |
Becoming Beth
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility
Posts: 22,920
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"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep." |
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#524 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 16,121
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Beto O'Rourke raised over $38 million in the third quarter. And Democrats everywhere are going to rue all the funds spent on this race, as Cruz has begun to extend his lead. How bad is it? Politico actually published a piece begging the national media not to profile Beto anymore.
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My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
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#525 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 2,775
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This is the state that thought Obama was planning to invade them.
I was never holding my breath to begin with. |
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#526 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 16,121
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Sinema's past is catching up to her. She was interviewed back in 2003 on a radio show with local Libertarian flake Ernie Hancock:
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She also apparently gave a speech at the Netroots Nation conference where she joked that Arizona was the meth lab of democracy. That's the kind of gag that might go over big with the Kos Kids, but could make her a harder sell in Phoenix. |
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My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
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#527 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,847
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Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isn’t. |
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#528 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,962
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"I've seen more Bigfoot creatures than Mountain Lions and Wolves combined here in KY." ― ChrisBFRPKY "I've observed 1 creature eating bark from a pine tree and enjoying like it was cotton candy." ― ChrisBFRPKY |
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#529 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,847
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Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isn’t. |
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#530 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,962
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"I've seen more Bigfoot creatures than Mountain Lions and Wolves combined here in KY." ― ChrisBFRPKY "I've observed 1 creature eating bark from a pine tree and enjoying like it was cotton candy." ― ChrisBFRPKY |
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#531 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 20,024
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#532 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,962
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__________________
"I've seen more Bigfoot creatures than Mountain Lions and Wolves combined here in KY." ― ChrisBFRPKY "I've observed 1 creature eating bark from a pine tree and enjoying like it was cotton candy." ― ChrisBFRPKY |
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#533 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,323
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#534 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 16,049
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Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.
Serious prediction. 1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House 2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate. 3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level 4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout. |
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- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#535 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,323
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While I agree with points 1-3, on point 4 I have to wonder:
- How are you defining 'significant' increase voter turnout? - Are you comparing this midterm's voter turnout with the last major election in 2016 or with previous midterms (which on average have lower turnouts)? I can see an increase in voter turnout compared to to 2014, although I don't think it will made a major difference in the results (with Republican gerrymandering and voter supression.) |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#536 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 20,053
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I'd expect a decrease in voter turnout, because it's not a Presidential election year. That MAY affect R's more than D's, because they don't have Trump to vote for. Or not. Possibly wishful thinking on my part.
ETA: Oops, didn't see Segnosaur specified 2014. That was a somewhat dull year, so I can see an increase over that. |
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#537 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 16,121
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How bad are things looking for the Democrats in the Senate? They're starting to pour money into TrueBlue New Jersey, to prop up that crook, Bob Menendez.
Keep in mind that Menendez, having survived a hung jury in his corruption case, is still in front pretty handily--7.2 points ahead in the RCP average of polling. Meanwhile, a bunch of Democrats are in very tight races that the party basically needs to sweep in order to have a chance of taking back the upper house. They are spending $3 million, which is not a big ad buy in the New Jersey TV markets as the Garden State is basically the expensive New York and Philadelphia markets. Just think how much that same amount could buy in Montana, where Jon Tester is ahead by only 3 points, or Nevada, where incumbent Republican Dean Heller is only up by 1.7 points. |
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My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
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#538 |
Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 15,023
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McConnell did well with Kavanaugh for shoring up support for Republicans in the Senate, but I'm confused by his recent statements:
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I mean, we all know these are the actual Republican goals, but they aren't popular messages to give before the midterms. And Trump is busy saying that Democrats want to cut Medicare... |
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As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#539 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 2,533
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#540 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 20,053
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Republican ads for the Washington 8th District have been claiming that the Democrat supports Medicare for All and it would cause income taxes to double. And much other hyperbole.
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#541 |
Not a doctor.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 17,818
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#542 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 1,743
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"Yet another report of conservative candidates being targeted with violence. We can’t accept attacks like these as the new normal, and we can’t shrug off the type of unhinged rhetoric that inspires and excuses assaulting others for their political beliefs." -- Rep. Steve Scalise (Oct 17, 2018) "Probably best to avoid being in close physical proximity to any Democrat, they’ve become unhinged and violent." -- James Woods (Oct 18, 2018) |
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#543 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,650
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#544 |
Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 15,023
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Just saw the exact same line for my US congressional race in IL. Which is weird because the Democrat in question doesn't support single payer. It also tried to link her to a controversial State Democratic legislator, but she is running for the US Congress.
It was like two generic fill-in-the-blank attack ads mashed together. |
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As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#545 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,739
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#546 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 492
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That depends.
For me, there is an amount taken out of my check, but there is also an amount that my employer pays that never passes through my check. Because of my position, I know that the employer portion is much higher than the portion that shows up on my check. If my employer's contribution were paid to me as part of my salary, yes, it would be an increase. But if it was only the portion I pay, then it would be a noticable decrease in my take home pay. |
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#547 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 492
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#548 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 20,053
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Yeah. People with good health care associated with their jobs would not break even. But of course, the doubling of income taxes is a ridiculous lie anyhow.
The weird thing about the Republican terror of Medicare for All is that their sponsors, the insurance companies and big corporations in general, would benefit. The insurance companies LOVE medicare because they get to sell lots of supplemental plans and even Medicare Advantage, which they charge the feds to administrate. The corporations could drop their employee health plans, but of course they would pass the savings on (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) on to their employees. |
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#549 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,390
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#550 |
Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 15,023
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As a followup, I've heard that McConnell is merely setting up for Democratic control of the House. All of a sudden, the deficit will be the biggest issue and we will have to cut social spending and in no way is any of this the fault of Republicans controlling every branch of government.
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As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#551 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 20,426
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I'd bet it would too.
What I don't get about the Democrats and the health care fight is how stupidly they play this game. If I was the Democrats, I'd roll out commercials showing how Universal Coverage is almost Universal all over the Western world. Do Americans really deserve less? The idea that the United States cannot do this is awful. I'd juxtapose commercials with middle class Americans struggling with paying insurance or hospital bills and Canadians, Brits, Norwegians, etc. smiling over how they don't worry about medical bills. When your Congressman or Senator tells you it can't be done, just say "get it done, or get out of the way". |
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“ A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. ” ― David Hume |
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#552 |
Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 15,023
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Update on indicted Hunter's challenger: He's a Palestinian Mexican Millennial Muslim Brotherhood infiltrator.
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__________________
As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#553 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,650
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#554 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 16,049
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And if Warren Buffett stole the money my wife and I are saving for our 10th Anniversary vacation out of my savings account, invested it, and returned it in two years after making whatever he was able to using it I'm sure I'd have more, perhaps a lot more, to spend on a vacation.
Still doesn't mean I want him to do. "Give me your money because I can do more with it then you can" isn't argument people think it is. A better return on investment requires voluntaryness (that needs to be a word) to be a good thing. |
__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#555 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,323
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A little bad news for the republicans on the polling front (from all places, Fox news)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pre...term-elections Some poll highlights: - Republicans continue to trail Democrats overall by 49%-42%. This is unchanged since September, so they don't seem to be making any headway - One of the biggest issues in the election is health care (followed by the economy and president trump). And for those thinking health care is important, the majority prefer the Democrats - Most people think that congress should act as a check on Trump's powers, as opposed to helping him enact his policies - Despite the supposed economic boom that the Republicans are bragging about, the number of people who feel 'confident' about their personal economic future has dropped from 73% 3 years ago to 68% now Of course, there are still several weeks to go, so the republicans have plenty of time to find new ways to cheat. |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#556 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,650
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#557 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,847
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In 2016, the fundamentals that after two terms, the White House almost always changes parties were against Clinton.
Now, the fundamentals that the President's party almost always loses seat in the first Midterms are for the Democrats. |
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Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isn’t. |
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#558 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,323
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That has been the trend. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned that the republicans may hold on to both the Senate and the House. After all, they've done a remarkable job of gerrymandering and voter supression. And generally republican support tends to skew older and whiter (the type of people who have usually been more reliable voters.)
Frankly, I really don't understand... so many of the republican policies are disliked by people. So many people dislike Trump as a person... how can the polling results be as close as they are? |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#559 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 2,533
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A Republican PAC in Arkansas has run a political ad so over the top that even the candidate they're supporting has condemned it.
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#560 |
Merchant of Doom
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Not in Hell, but I can see it from here on a clear day...
Posts: 13,165
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Sheesh. I haven't heard it yet (I work in Little Rock, and live just a bit outside it). I have heard his other commercials where he talks about "getting tax breaks for Arkansans and businesses to create jobs", which I basically heard as "The Kool-Aid is great! Drink the Kool-Aid!"
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