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Old 10th October 2018, 02:34 PM   #41
cullennz
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I'm sure the actual number is horribly high, but I struggle to see how they can actually put a number on unreported rapes
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Old 10th October 2018, 02:35 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
When I worked at a uni I got told to 'interview' a student who had been masturbating to porn in the open access lab. When I asked why on earth I would do that, I was informed it was 'breach of the computer usage terms and conditions'. This prompted me to enquire whether, if the student had been jacking off in the bushes, he would be interviewed by the gardener. That didn't go down at all well, but I refused to do it and that was that.
What would be the point of an interview? To find out what they were looking at, and was it any good? Or I guess being an education institution they might have wanted you to correct the student's technique.
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Old 10th October 2018, 02:40 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I'm sure the actual number is horribly high, but I struggle to see how they can actually put a number on unreported rapes
Let alone determine that none of them are false.
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Old 10th October 2018, 02:41 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It cuts both ways. If you're an actual rapist, the difficulty in proving the crime is to your advantage. If you're not a rapist, the difficulty in disproving the crime is to your detriment.
The problem with rape...or at least acquaintance rape...is that the sex act is something that it is normal, emotionally charged and normally done privately with no witnesses. Having independent evidence as to the whether it was consensual or not is rare.
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Old 10th October 2018, 02:41 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
What would be the point of an interview? To find out what they were looking at, and was it any good? Or I guess being an education institution they might have wanted you to correct the student's technique.
I believe it was to gather evidence to send to the student's tutor. The interview did go ahead (just without me). I don't know what the outcome was, I didn't want to even think about it. Edit: oh yes, and the person who ordered me to do the interview actually sat in on it. She was the Vice Principle of the university. Quite what she got out of it I don't know, especially as she was a lesbian.
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Old 10th October 2018, 03:42 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
But we leave in a world where the merest suggestion can ruin your life,

Or get you elected to the highest office in the land.
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Old 10th October 2018, 03:47 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post
Or get you elected to the highest office in the land.
I gotta say, that was probably safest entry point back into the thread. Well played.
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Old 10th October 2018, 03:50 PM   #48
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Re: the OP.

What's the point?


Seriously. If we accept, for the sake of argument, that false allegations of rape are rare, how should we treat any given allegation of rape?
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Old 10th October 2018, 04:00 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
I would like to see why you think they are not good examples; they are both individuals who were put on trial for murder, subsequently acquitted, and yet are still widely considered to be guilty of the crimes for which they were tried. And there are plenty of more examples. Casey Anthony is another quite famous one.
I don't think anyone's saying that people accused but not convicted of murder never hear of it again. The point is that sex allegations are more sticky.
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Old 10th October 2018, 04:11 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I don't think anyone's saying that people accused but not convicted of murder never hear of it again. The point is that sex allegations are more sticky.
I know that's what they're saying. I'm saying that point is baseless.
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Old 10th October 2018, 04:19 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I don't think anyone's saying that people accused but not convicted of murder never hear of it again. The point is that sex allegations are more sticky.

I don't see that. What I see is when even credible allegations of rape are made, the overwhelming response of the majority is to immediately dismiss or question it, citing highly inflated and unsupported "false accusation" statistics. If it's a date rape situation, the inevitable response seems to be to simply ignore it, attack the victim, and put it in the "boys will be boys" box.

I've know several people accused of rape, both legitimately and falsely. I've been falsely accused of rape. I've not seen a single instance where it stuck or otherwise caused any sort of real long-term problems for the accused unless the case was actually investigated by police and went to court. It certainly didn't in my case (it didn't hurt that my accuser had a history of unreliability and exaggeration).

Not saying it doesn't happen, but rape accusations appear to be just as effective at ruining someone's life as they are at getting police to investigate and courts to prosecute (in other words not very effective at all).

The only time I've ever personally witnessed rape allegations have a significant impact on someone's life is when the alleged victim is a pre-pubescent child.
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Old 10th October 2018, 05:21 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post
I don't see that. What I see is when even credible allegations of rape are made, the overwhelming response of the majority is to immediately dismiss or question it, citing highly inflated and unsupported "false accusation" statistics.
I think it depends on whether you're in a right-leaning or left-leaning area, then.

Quote:
The only time I've ever personally witnessed rape allegations have a significant impact on someone's life is when the alleged victim is a pre-pubescent child.
I think you can extend that to minors in general.
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Old 10th October 2018, 05:46 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Seriously. If we accept, for the sake of argument, that false allegations of rape are rare, how should we treat any given allegation of rape?
The same way we treat any given allegation of of a crime.

Is it a testable claim? If not, dismiss it without prejudice.

If it's a testable claim, then test it.

If it tests false, dismiss it. Consider bringing charges against the claimant.

If it tests true, bring the claim to trial. Lay out all the documentary evidence of the tests. Give the accused a fair chance to rebut the evidence. Let a citizen panel or other duly appointed arbiter issue a formal ruling on the truth value of the claim. Apply penalties as appropriate to the ruling.

The process is not hard to understand. The process is by far the best process we know of. The only real difficulty is that rape claims are hard to render testable.

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Old 10th October 2018, 06:00 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post
I don't see that. What I see is when even credible allegations of rape are made, the overwhelming response of the majority is to immediately dismiss or question it, citing highly inflated and unsupported "false accusation" statistics.
Please cite the non-highly inflated and non-unsupported statistics for your "overwhelming response of the majority".

Also, keep in mind that it is absolutely appropriate - necessary, even - to question accusations of criminal activity. Calling them "credible" up front begs the question. It's kind of dishonest to complain that the "overwhelming response of the majority" is to question allegations of a crime.

What's your preferred response? That the majority overwhelmingly accept criminal accusations without question?

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Old 10th October 2018, 07:47 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post

I've know several people accused of rape, both legitimately and falsely. I've been falsely accused of rape. I've not seen a single instance where it stuck or otherwise caused any sort of real long-term problems for the accused unless the case was actually investigated by police and went to court. It certainly didn't in my case (it didn't hurt that my accuser had a history of unreliability and exaggeration).
Might want to talk with these folks, seems being falsely accused can cause some "long term" problems.

35 wrongly convicted men in this article alone. Sickening.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...85?src=recsys&
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Old 10th October 2018, 08:04 PM   #56
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Lisak-Lonsway definition of a false allegation of rape

One school of thought (Lonsway, Lisak) defines a false rape accusation as one that is shown to be false after a thorough investigation. There are at least two problems with this approach. One is that some cases commonly thought to be false are not classified as such. Elsewhere David Lisak has been quoted as saying that no one knows what happened with respect to the Duke lacrosse case, suggesting that it does not meet the very high bar that he and his coauthors set. Two is that reports which are classified as "baseless" or "unfounded" are not counted as false (see links for a fuller discussion of those terms). Nor are reports in which the alleged victim exaggerated. The statement that 5.9% of rape allegations are false does not mean that 94.1% of rape allegations are true, although I have seen this error made. Some of them are baseless, unfounded, or partially true.

The OP quoted some numbers concerning convictions for rape versus murder that were overturned. Overturning a false conviction is every bit as easy as unbaking a cake. I would be very hesitant to read much significance into those numbers without further study.
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Old 10th October 2018, 09:05 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
More pertinently, the reduction of 5% to 0.5% assumes that within the 90% unreported figure, all rapes are all genuine. In the absence of any evidence, and indeed any possible evidence, the assumption must be that the level of false informally reported rapes is the same as the level of false formally reported rapes, so the 5% remains.
I think the point here is they are looking at the number of reported rapes that are false as a proportion of all rapes, reported and unreported.

I can't see any reason why this is not valid. If a person was not raped, they are hardly likely to make a false report of not being raped are they?


ETA: think of it this way -

I have a box with 100 pieces of fruit, 10 of which are apples. After a thorough inspection of all the fruit, I find ONE apple that is rotten.

What percentage of the apples is rotten?

What percentage of the fruit is rotten?
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Old 10th October 2018, 11:12 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I think the point here is they are looking at the number of reported rapes that are false as a proportion of all rapes, reported and unreported.

I can't see any reason why this is not valid. If a person was not raped, they are hardly likely to make a false report of not being raped are they?


ETA: think of it this way -

I have a box with 100 pieces of fruit, 10 of which are apples. After a thorough inspection of all the fruit, I find ONE apple that is rotten.

What percentage of the apples is rotten?

What percentage of the fruit is rotten?
A better analogy would be there is a 100 pieces of fruit.

10 decide to go in for inspection saying they are apples.

After an inspection of all the apples, I find ONE apple that is rotten.

We have no idea whether the other 90 were apples, let alone rotten, because no one who makes a difference got to see them
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Old 10th October 2018, 11:58 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Re: the OP.

What's the point?


Seriously. If we accept, for the sake of argument, that false allegations of rape are rare, how should we treat any given allegation of rape?
As we would any other claim of a serious crime being committed.
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Old 11th October 2018, 02:13 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I think the point here is they are looking at the number of reported rapes that are false as a proportion of all rapes, reported and unreported.

I can't see any reason why this is not valid. If a person was not raped, they are hardly likely to make a false report of not being raped are they?
That methodology assumes all non-reported (non-formally reported) rapes actually happened. Where's the evidence that whilst people formally report rape 5% of the time, when questioned informally they never falsely report rape? Of course, it's an absurd and unjustified assumption. In the absence of evidence it must be assumed the rate of false reporting must be equal between formal reports and informal reports.

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
ETA: think of it this way -

I have a box with 100 pieces of fruit, 10 of which are apples. After a thorough inspection of all the fruit, I find ONE apple that is rotten.

What percentage of the apples is rotten?

What percentage of the fruit is rotten?
That's not what's happened. What happens according to the OP's method is the following:
  • You have a box of 100 apples.
  • You thoroughly examine 10 of them and find one to be rotten.
  • You glance at the rest of them, which you can barely see, and none look rotten.
  • You conclude that 1% of the apples are rotten.

What should happen is:
  • You have a box of 100 apples.
  • You thoroughly examine 10 of them and find one to be rotten.
  • You glance at the rest of them, which you can barely see, and none look rotten.
  • Because you haven't examined the other apples properly you conclude that the 1 in 10 rotten apple figure is broadly true for the rest.
  • You conclude that 10% of the apples are rotten.
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Old 11th October 2018, 02:28 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I'm sure the actual number is horribly high, but I struggle to see how they can actually put a number on unreported rapes
Not least because there will be different reporting rate between different types of rape. The classic "dragged down a dark alley" stereotype, although the minority, stands more chance of coming to the attention of the police than rape within marriage. Likewise an injured or drugged victim is more likely to be referred to polcie by the medical staff treating them.

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Old 11th October 2018, 02:38 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
I know that's what they're saying. I'm saying that point is baseless.
BBC News: False rape accusation 'destroyed life' of Surrey man

"A man who was falsely accused of rape by his ex-girlfriend has said it will take years to rebuild his life.

Paul Joseph said Kate Woodhead, 31, who was jailed for three years on Monday, left him with nothing when she accused him of rape at their home in Surrey.

He lost his job as an IT consultant, his home and his collection of cars.

"For me, it is as if someone's house burned down and everything they owned was in it. That is effectively what happened to me," he said.

Guildford Crown Court heard Woodhead told police Mr Joseph, 39, had drugged her before attacking her at their home near Wisley.

She then stole property worth about £23,500, including an expensive stereo and art prints, and transferred ownership of his sports car and motorcycle to her own name."
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Old 11th October 2018, 02:38 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
More pertinently, the reduction of 5% to 0.5% assumes that within the 90% unreported figure, all rapes are all genuine. In the absence of any evidence, and indeed any possible evidence, the assumption must be that the level of false informally reported rapes is the same as the level of false formally reported rapes, so the 5% remains.
No, that doesn't work. You've introduced a new category of "informally reported rapes" that doesn't exist in the study. The 90% figure is an estimate of the proportion of rapes committed but not reported at all, so everything rests to some extent on the accuracy of that estimate, which is clearly a difficult one to make. If it's taken as correct for the sake of argument, then those 90% of rapes are not reported at all. But even if we assume that 5% of that estimated 90% are spurious, that has only a small influence on the final figure.

Let's take some hypothetical numbers. The study claims that, of every 1000 rapes, 100 are reported, and for every 100 genuine reports there are 5 false accusations. If you're correct, then 50 of those 1000 rapes never happened, so there are 5 false accusations for every 950 rapes. That only increases the false reporting rate from 0.5% to 0.526%. So even if we concede that the estimate of unreported rapes is high by 5%, the false reporting rate to the police is still insignificantly more than 0.5%.

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Old 11th October 2018, 02:59 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
No, that doesn't work. You've introduced a new category of "informally reported rapes" that doesn't exist in the study. The 90% figure is an estimate of the proportion of rapes committed but not reported at all, so everything rests to some extent on the accuracy of that estimate, which is clearly a difficult one to make. If it's taken as correct for the sake of argument, then those 90% of rapes are not reported at all. But even if we assume that 5% of that estimated 90% are spurious, that has only a small influence on the final figure.
It would rest on how exactly the 90% was extrapolated. If it is from crime victimisation surveys, referrals to non-police authorities (e.g. social workers), high educational authorities, support groups, etc. then it carries precisely the same risk of there being false claims in the mix, if not a greater one. Those who may - for whatever reason - make a false accusation might be happy to do so in any other setting, but far more wary of doing so to the police.
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Old 11th October 2018, 03:00 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
No, that doesn't work. You've introduced a new category of "informally reported rapes" that doesn't exist in the study. The 90% figure is an estimate of the proportion of rapes committed but not reported at all, so everything rests to some extent on the accuracy of that estimate, which is clearly a difficult one to make.
It's an impossible one to make without informally reported information. Otherwise there would be no way of knowing that not every woman raped reported that rape. My interpretation gives credit for at least some justifiable methodology. Guessing at the number of actual rapes that don't get reported is clearly of no worth whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
If it's taken as correct for the sake of argument, then those 90% of rapes are not reported at all. But even if we assume that 5% of that estimated 90% are spurious, that has only a small influence on the final figure.

Let's take some hypothetical numbers. The study claims that, of every 1000 rapes, 100 are reported, and for every 100 genuine reports there are 5 false accusations. If you're correct, then 50 of those 1000 rapes never happened, so there are 5 false accusations for every 950 rapes. That only increases the false reporting rate from 0.5% to 0.526%. So even if we concede that the estimate of unreported rapes is high by 5%, the false reporting rate to the police is still insignificantly more than 0.5%.
Again, there are two options.

1) The 90% unreported figure is pure guesswork and based on no evidence. In which case we have no way of knowing that any rapes go unreported, let alone 900 out of every 1000.

2) The 90% unreported figure is based on informally reported experience. So we're back to my analysis, which still stands.
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Old 11th October 2018, 03:49 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The same way we treat any given allegation of of a crime.

Is it a testable claim? If not, dismiss it without prejudice.

If it's a testable claim, then test it.

If it tests false, dismiss it. Consider bringing charges against the claimant.

If it tests true, bring the claim to trial. Lay out all the documentary evidence of the tests. Give the accused a fair chance to rebut the evidence. Let a citizen panel or other duly appointed arbiter issue a formal ruling on the truth value of the claim. Apply penalties as appropriate to the ruling.

The process is not hard to understand. The process is by far the best process we know of. The only real difficulty is that rape claims are hard to render testable.
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
As we would any other claim of a serious crime being committed.

And of course, these are the obvious answers.

It doesn't matter whether false reports are rare or common, each individual report should be treated separately. The accused should be presumed innocent unless other evidence can be presented.
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Old 11th October 2018, 04:31 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Again, there are two options.

1) The 90% unreported figure is pure guesswork and based on no evidence. In which case we have no way of knowing that any rapes go unreported, let alone 900 out of every 1000.

2) The 90% unreported figure is based on informally reported experience. So we're back to my analysis, which still stands.
False dilemma. There is also the possibility - and this appears, in fact, to be the case - that the 90% figure is based on experiences reported solely as a result of participation in a study, which is then generalised to the overall population from the sample(s) studied. In which case, there is no false informal reporting outside the bounds of the study, simply an overestimate of the rate of unreported rapes. Which brings us back to the conclusion that a 5% over-reporting within the bounds of the study has only a very small effect on the result for the ratio of false accusations to actual rapes.

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Old 11th October 2018, 05:00 AM   #68
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unreported sexual assaults

One of many problems I have with the article is that I have found different values for the number of sexual assaults that go unreported. From Slate, " Up to 60 percent of rapes go unreported." The National Sexual Violence Resource Center provided a fact sheet which states, "Rape is the most under-reported crime; 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police (o). Only 12% of child sexual abuse is reported to the authorities (g)."
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Old 11th October 2018, 05:55 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
False dilemma. There is also the possibility - and this appears, in fact, to be the case - that the 90% figure is based on experiences reported solely as a result of participation in a study, which is then generalised to the overall population from the sample(s) studied.
Yes, that's precisely what Option 2 says.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
In which case, there is no false informal reporting outside the bounds of the study, simply an overestimate of the rate of unreported rapes
Of course, I wasn't suggesting that there is a sexual record of every woman on Earth. A small number of women were interviewed (whether for the study or outside the study doesn't matter) and they gave their account informally. Unless you immediately accept all these accounts are valid my 5% overall figure still stands, because false reporting in informal accounts is in itself an unknown quantity, and cannot be anything else.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Which brings us back to the conclusion that a 5% over-reporting within the bounds of the study has only a very small effect on the result for the ratio of false accusations to actual rapes.
I don't know what you mean by over-reporting. False reporting is the issue, and there's no reason to assume it does not happen if the person being told the story is not a police officer.
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Old 11th October 2018, 06:54 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Of course, I wasn't suggesting that there is a sexual record of every woman on Earth. A small number of women were interviewed (whether for the study or outside the study doesn't matter) and they gave their account informally. Unless you immediately accept all these accounts are valid my 5% overall figure still stands, because false reporting in informal accounts is in itself an unknown quantity, and cannot be anything else.
But in that case, the only additional false reports are those actually made in the study.

Again, let's take some hypothetical numbers as an illustration. Suppose a study of 1% of the population finds that 100 rapes were reported to the police and 1,000 were reported to the survey amongst the population interviewed, and generalisation of this to an actual population 100 times greater suggests 10,000 were reported and 100,000 actually occurred. Suppose also that 5% of all accounts, both actual reports and findings of the study, involve false accusations. We therefore have 500 false accusations - 5% of the total of accusations - and a further 50 false accounts from the survey. There are therefore a total of 550 false accounts, still not much over 0.5% of the total.

You're making the error of assuming that you can take any false accounts made to the study, generalise them to the total population, and treat the additional potential false accounts as actual ones. But they aren't, because nobody has actually given those accounts and made those accusations; they're simply an extrapolation of what would have been said had all the population been interviewed. Those potential accounts have never actually been given; the lives of the innocents involved have never actually been affected by them.

And, yes, I agree with Chris_Halkides; the derivation of the number of unreported sexual assaults is a problem, because by its very nature it's impossible to be certain whether it's accurate.

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Old 11th October 2018, 07:07 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
But in that case, the only additional false reports are those actually made in the study.

Again, let's take some hypothetical numbers as an illustration. Suppose a study of 1% of the population finds that 100 rapes were reported to the police and 1,000 were reported to the survey amongst the population interviewed, and generalisation of this to an actual population 100 times greater suggests 10,000 were reported and 100,000 actually occurred. Suppose also that 5% of all accounts, both actual reports and findings of the study, involve false accusations. We therefore have 500 false accusations - 5% of the total of accusations - and a further 50 false accounts from the survey. There are therefore a total of 550 false accounts, still not much over 0.5% of the total.

You're making the error of assuming that you can take any false accounts made to the study, generalise them to the total population, and treat the additional potential false accounts as actual ones. But they aren't, because nobody has actually given those accounts and made those accusations; they're simply an extrapolation of what would have been said had all the population been interviewed.
Yeah but you have to extrapolate what would be false allegations there too, no?
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Old 11th October 2018, 07:18 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yeah but you have to extrapolate what would be false allegations there too, no?
No, because we're trying to compare actual rapes, with the serious effects they have on the victim, with actual false allegations, with the serious effects they have on their victims (i.e. those falsely accused). The extrapolation allows us to deduce how many rapes actually occurred - though as discussed there's a considerable error margin on that - but a false account given confidentially to a survey doesn't mean that a proportionate number of false accounts have actually been given by all the population, only that a proportionate number of false accounts would be given by the rest of the population if they were surveyed in the same manner. Since those accounts haven't actually been given, they haven't had any effect on the lives of those who haven't actually been falsely accused. We believe, however, that the extrapolated assaults actually occurred, with all the attendent consequences.

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Old 11th October 2018, 07:30 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
No, because we're trying to compare actual rapes, with the serious effects they have on the victim, with actual false allegations, with the serious effects they have on their victims (i.e. those falsely accused). The extrapolation allows us to deduce how many rapes actually occurred - though as discussed there's a considerable error margin on that - but a false account given confidentially to a survey doesn't mean that a proportionate number of false accounts have actually been given by all the population, only that a proportionate number of false accounts would be given by the rest of the population if they were surveyed in the same manner. Since those accounts haven't actually been given, they haven't had any effect on the lives of those who haven't actually been falsely accused. We believe, however, that the extrapolated assaults actually occurred, with all the attendent consequences.

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You still have to remove the false allegations (5%) from your sample before you extrapolate to actual rapes in the larger population. Your sample of 100 reported rapes and 1000 study reports yields a 5% false accusation rate. That means 55, leaving 1045. Extrapolating that to your larger population doesn't yield 100,000 but 95,000.
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Old 11th October 2018, 08:05 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
You still have to remove the false allegations (5%) from your sample before you extrapolate to actual rapes in the larger population. Your sample of 100 reported rapes and 1000 study reports yields a 5% false accusation rate. That means 55, leaving 1045. Extrapolating that to your larger population doesn't yield 100,000 but 95,000.
True. That increases the false report rate from 0.5% to 0.58%, still within a reasonable margin of error.

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Old 11th October 2018, 08:08 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
True. That increases the false report rate from 0.5% to 0.58%, still within a reasonable margin of error.

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...what? That's still 5%, since you dropped from 100,000 to 95,000.
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Old 11th October 2018, 08:13 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
...what? That's still 5%, since you dropped from 100,000 to 95,000.
No, we had 500 false accusations actually made outside the study and 50 false accounts given within the study, as against 95,000 actually committed assaults. 550/95,000 = 0.0058 = 0.58%. What other false accusations have actually been made, in this example?

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Old 11th October 2018, 08:14 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yeah but you have to extrapolate what would be false allegations there too, no?
Another issue is that the statistics of 5-8% false accusations only reflect cases where the investigations have "proven" a rape did not occur. If they could not prove the negative then it is considered true for the record.

If you are only going to accept false accusations if they are proven, you should also only accept rape accusations if they are proven and dump unproven instances from the statistics, or at the very least list them as "unknown" and not a plus to one side and a minus to the other.
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Old 11th October 2018, 08:17 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
No, we had 500 false accusations actually made outside the study and 50 false accounts given within the study, as against 95,000 actually committed assaults. 550/95,000 = 0.0058 = 0.58%. What other false accusations have actually been made, in this example?

Dave
Are you seriously comparing the false allegations of the smaller sample against the larger one? Come on. Apples to apples, here. You cannot extrapolate false allegations of the smaller sample to the larger one because you've specifically taken them out of the equation before extrapolating. You're cheating with the numbers here.

Or, put it another way, false allegations can only be compared to the reports. You're trying to compare them to a different data set. You can't do that.
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Old 11th October 2018, 08:20 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Are you seriously comparing the false allegations of the smaller sample against the larger one? Come on. Apples to apples, here. You cannot extrapolate false allegations of the smaller sample to the larger one because you've specifically taken them out of the equation before extrapolating. You're cheating with the numbers here.
Actually, no, I see what he's doing. You can't include false allegations of the extrapolated unreported incidents, because if they're unreported there were never false allegations made. I can see the logic there.

ETA: Although I do agree with some others that you really need more categories, perhaps a "proven true", "proven false", and "undetermined" at the least.

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Old 11th October 2018, 08:23 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
Actually, no, I see what he's doing. You can't include false allegations of the extrapolated unreported incidents, because if they're unreported there were never false allegations made. I can see the logic there.
Of course, but it's stil cheating, because you have to determine false allegations in relation to reports. He's comparing them in relation to unreported ones, but if all of those were reported, you can bet real money that the 5% figure would still apply to the entire sample.

Think of it this way: if two people tell you they've eaten pizza last evening, and one is lying, that's 50%. Now, you can assume, for whatever reason, that 100,000 people in the US ate pizza last evening. Does that mean that 1 out of 100,001 people lied about it? The statement doesn't even make sense, because that one liar has nothing to do with how many people ate pizza in the US yesterday. The only place where his lie has relevance is in the two people who told you about what they ate.
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