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18th October 2016, 10:02 AM | #241 |
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18th October 2016, 10:16 AM | #242 |
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This is a purely theoretical view. In fact, I have observed that the multiple-choice method tends to break down when the number of choices offered becomes too large (4 possibilities seems to be the best number of choices). People seem to demand a little help, a little info about the word they have to "guess".
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18th October 2016, 10:52 AM | #243 |
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Who is General Failure? And why is he reading my hard drive? ...love and buttercakes... |
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18th October 2016, 11:35 AM | #244 |
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As has been noted multiple times before, the impact of someone cheating, randomly guessing, or otherwise improperly distorting the results, decreases dramatically with increases in the size of the possible answer choices. If there are only 4 possible choices and only #2 is correct, then a cheater might receive the "correct" answer #2, but deliberately pick #4 to throw off the test and it might affect the interpretation of the test. But if there are 1000 possible choices (1 to 1000, the first 1000 word entries in the Webster dictionary, etc.) then a cheater's lies would be diffused among the 999 "wrong" answers and disappear into the statistical background. And this would still require Michel H to only try to broadcast the one "correct"answer. Thus no need to interpret the reliability of the answer/ poster.
And of course the larger the list of possible answer the stronger the statistics if the correct answer does predominate in the posters' responses. Michel H must know this, but choses not to accept it. But I am certain that even with a 1000 possible choices, the "right" form of retrospective analysis could turn any set of answers into proof of telepathy. |
18th October 2016, 12:17 PM | #245 |
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18th October 2016, 01:33 PM | #246 |
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He did. He had a test where he projected one of four numbers. 1,2,3,4.
He still failed, Then with no malice or trickery I gave him a 50-50 shot at picking the number I was thinking of; 1 or 2 and he still failed. He also failed a different test after claiming he could detect lies. Yet he'll do this test again and someone will be foolish enough to answer and he'll bend and stretch in way that would humble Mr.Fantastic to make it fit. |
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18th October 2016, 01:34 PM | #247 |
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18th October 2016, 01:45 PM | #248 |
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Have you tried not talking to the dog? Then you could see whether the reaction or change has anything to do with you.
With any belief always try to prove its wrong before you settle with it. When dogs bark it's for a reason, for example my dog will bark when it is outside and wants me to let it in, when i let it in it stops barking. |
18th October 2016, 04:39 PM | #249 |
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Quote:
In a thread about picking a country name, and with me moving between my stamps and the internet that day, of course Poland was on my mind when I responded. Here is the work I did that day: It was playful sarcasm in response to your stupid poll. (You may have heard the word sarcasm once or twice, but obviously still don't actually understand it. I hate to think what would you would have thought if I had been sorting Falkland Islands. Two "an"'s and it starts with an F. You would have probably had an orgasm! Let's see what I could have been sorting, if I was still on "A". I won't do the whole alphabet of stamp issuing entities, but a list of some of the "A"s may be food for thought, even for you. Aegean Islands Afghanistan Ajman Aland Islands Albania Alexandretta Alexandria Andorra Angola Angora Angra Anguilla Anjouan Ankara Annam and Tongking Antigua Antioquia Australia (Queensland) Australia (Tasmania) Australian Antarctic Territory Austrian Italy Austran Levant (Hey - two for one) Austro-Hungarian Military Post AVIANCA Azerbaijan Note that some of these are anglicised versions of the local name, as indeed is Poland.I suppose I should have said Polska! Norm |
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20th October 2016, 04:09 PM | #250 | ||
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So fromdownunder was thinking of the word France which you were broadcasting and you know this because Poland which he said he wast thinking of contains an "an" just like France.
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20th October 2016, 04:16 PM | #251 |
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Ceterum autem censeo Factio Republicanus esse delendam |
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20th October 2016, 05:34 PM | #252 |
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... and thus requires help - ridicule of an ideal is fine, of a person not so, since any said person cannot be ideal.
If that said person suffers from a belief in an ideal, even if it is wrong (the ideal), that person is not guilty of belief but of lack of sceptical thinking. Here, we may help. |
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... er, that's it |
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20th October 2016, 06:08 PM | #253 |
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Let me try again.
1) Thought broadcasting - belief everybody can here one's thought. 2) Thought insertion - belief that somebody is inserting thoughts in one's brain. 3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia.
Quote:
As I said, I suffer from schizophrenia and went through went through the same things. Once I accepted that I am schizophrenic, I was able to control those thoughts. Michael, there is nothing to be ashamed of. Schiz is an illness like any other illness. It of no fault of yours if you suffer the illness. What is important is to control it, if not get rid of it all together. You really have to see a doctor or at least take the medications your doctors prescribed. |
21st October 2016, 04:20 AM | #254 |
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21st October 2016, 05:01 AM | #255 |
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Evolution has produced some animals which can sense electrical activity in other animals. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroreception You're postulating something much stranger. What you are suggesting is more analogous to noting that a crowd in a football stadium emits a lot of noise and proposing that it might be possible to hear what people in that stadium are talking about while you're standing in the crowd in an entirely different football stadium. That is not a natural position from any point of view.
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Consider it from our point of view: It's said that believing one's thoughts are broadcast is a relatively common symptom of a moderately common disorder. There must be thousands, maybe millions, of people worldwide who are convinced that their thoughts are being broadcast. But we can't hear them, and I dare say that you can't hear them either. It must be very frustrating for them too, but we (and you) are not conspiring to lie to them. We really can't hear them. They're not broadcasting, they're just really, really convinced they are because of an illness. Can you not conceive of the possibility that you might be in the same position too?
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If a person with schizophrenia told you all this same stuff and insisted you could hear their thoughts (which of course you cannot) what would you think? What would you tell them? |
21st October 2016, 08:18 AM | #256 |
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Is it worth mentioning that a few years back there was a member called golphy or golfy? He had been diagnosed with schizophrenia but disagreed with the diagnosis. He believed that everybody in the world could hear his thoughts and that anybody who said they couldn't was lying.
The similarities are striking. |
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21st October 2016, 08:50 AM | #257 |
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As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities. - Voltaire. |
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21st October 2016, 11:25 AM | #258 |
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Thanks. Starting to read back through that thread, and post #7 involves golfy proposing a protocol in which he would write down 10 words and concentrate on one, attempting to transmit it to someone else.
The key difference appears to be that golfy was interested in working out a protocol by which he could actually be tested (although I've not yet re-read the thread far enough to see whether he ducks and dives anything which could actually work), whereas Michael doesn't seem interested in doing any tests other than the ones in this thread. |
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22nd October 2016, 12:46 AM | #259 |
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Yeah, golfy wanted to win the JREF Million Dollar Challenge so he was trying to come up with an acceptable protocol, which would have involved a lot more than a test on an internet discussion board. What I also find interesting is that, like Michael, golfy also believed that people were lying when they said they couldn't hear his thoughts, and his answer to that was to use a polygraph ("lie detector") in the test. Michael just adds his own subjective interpretation of how credible each answer is, but it's the same idea. At least golfy was trying to be more objective. |
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27th October 2016, 04:45 PM | #260 |
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Solution to Michel H's test problem
Michel H has relocated his experiment to the Skeptic Society forum.
http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopi...542538#p542205 SKEPP is the Belgium Skeptic Society that offers a 25,000 Euro prize for proof of telepathy. http://skepp.be/en/prijzen 1) Michel H claims other people can read his thoughts. 2) Michel H lives in Brussels. 3) Michael H informed us that he cannot apply for the SKEPP test as he does not have a credible and honest partner. 4) Michel H claims the results he receives from skeptic forum member are not credible and thus he can dismiss the answers. The Solution Michel H writes down his phone number in Brussels and the message "All telepathic people contact me on this phone number" on a piece of paper. Michel H reads this message, in his mind, over and over and over again, for three hours every day and repeats this every day. If Michel's claim is correct a real honest telepathic person will ring him up and together, they will apply to collect the 25,000 Euros. If Michel's claim is incorrect, then no one will ring him up. Problem Solved |
28th October 2016, 01:28 AM | #261 |
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So every telemarketer in Belgium will suddenly be telepathic?
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28th October 2016, 03:24 AM | #262 |
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28th October 2016, 03:35 AM | #263 |
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I'm somewhat puzzled as to why one would bother with the million dollar challenge, much less a smaller prize when one could realistically ask approximately six billion dollars a year to repeat the phrase "I really fancy a Big Mac and a Coke right now" a couple of hundred times a day.
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28th October 2016, 03:39 AM | #264 |
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28th October 2016, 04:01 AM | #265 |
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28th October 2016, 06:11 PM | #266 |
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1st November 2016, 04:57 PM | #267 |
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I thought more about this, simply as an exercise in how to allow Michel Hanck to undertake the SKEPP 25,000 Euro paranormal challenge, in his home country of Belgium, for the least cost.
Originally Posted by Michel H
B) Michel H will not undertake the test as he cannot find a credible human partner. Here is a simple experiment that satisfies Michel's dilemma. A random exit is chosen and Michel makes the mouse walk through that exit. We repeat this over and over again until statistically significant results can be assessed. |
1st November 2016, 05:59 PM | #268 |
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1st November 2016, 07:57 PM | #269 |
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1st November 2016, 08:59 PM | #270 |
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers
On the other hand, I am somewhat interested to hear if he thinks there are "credible mice" and "non credible mice" and how he justifies throwing out the results from "non credible mice". I love this sort of weirdness. |
2nd November 2016, 01:17 PM | #271 |
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There are credible dormice. They might be ideal.
Oh. No. Wait: That's edible dormice. |
16th November 2016, 11:42 AM | #272 |
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A simple telepathy experiment: which word did I write?
I recently wrote one of the four words: "automobile", "boat", "plane", and "submarine" on my paper, and I surrounded it with a rough ellipse.
I ask you to write it here (if you think you know it, even with a doubt). Also, a comment might be useful. You may say, for example, how confident you are in your choice. Thank you for participating. Notes: 1) A SHA-512 hash of a complicated sentence containing the selected word is: FE200D91BC7B83C5A638F5B9CD9F4F1FD8A66A5C5A8B7050D1 8316E56E881E5CA4FBB4D0524F38DA295CAAF1AD8136AECE11 A07C204EC6147C3D628F2FCC3A80 2) Yeggster has already kindly given an answer: |
16th November 2016, 12:36 PM | #273 |
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My deja vu has deja vu.
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16th November 2016, 02:44 PM | #274 |
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The Russians tried to build a submersible seaplane around the time of WW2. If it had been a submersible amphibian plane it would have ticked all four boxes.
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16th November 2016, 04:40 PM | #275 |
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Is it February 2 already?
Norm |
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17th November 2016, 05:36 AM | #276 |
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You should write down and circle your phone number while thinking of it. If you're genuinely telepathic, then anybody who genuinely can hear you and isn't wasting your time or being sarcastic will be able to contact you directly. Then you'll be able to apply for - and win - any number of sceptic challenges.
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17th November 2016, 06:31 AM | #277 |
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17th November 2016, 12:04 PM | #278 |
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Methinks telepathy may win by relentless repetition.
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18th November 2016, 09:42 AM | #279 |
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Oddly enough, I thought of Kate Upton riding a rhombus shaped skateboard. Do I score any points?
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18th November 2016, 03:25 PM | #280 |
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Well, if your answer can be vaguely fitted to one of the answers then the round peg will be relentlessly hammered into the square hole and considered a hit. If not you will be declared insincere and discarded. The only way that ANYONE walks away from this game with any honour is by refusing to play, as others have said it is better not to encourage this delusion.
(Nb. I was was going to give an example of how your obviously joke answer could be fitted to one of the options but I don't want to risk being coincidentally right). |
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