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3rd February 2020, 02:28 PM | #1 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Democratic caucuses and primaries
The voting for Democratic nominee officially kicks off tonight in Iowa, and I'd like to have a thread in which we try to game out how it all shakes out on one side of the aisle, preferably in quantifiable terms.
Personally I think Bernie is going to finish very strong tonight, probably taking the plurality of the initial vote and perhaps state delegate equivalents awarded as well. I'll be surprised if Biden isn't right behind him. I'd love to be surprised by an Elizabeth Warren surge or a fabled Amy KlobuCHARGE, but that's not in the cards. |
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3rd February 2020, 02:46 PM | #2 |
Philosopher
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I'll check back in at 7 pm ET.
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3rd February 2020, 02:59 PM | #3 |
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Reading up on the format they use in Iowa, I think Biden will end up taking the plurality, or a very close second to Bernie. The way it works in Iowa, if any candidate doesn't get to 15% in that caucus then they are free to move to another candidate. I think Bloomberg, and Buttigieg won't get there, and most of their "voters?" will move to Biden.
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3rd February 2020, 06:01 PM | #4 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I believe the caucuses began 4 minutes ago. No results yet, but it's officially underway.
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3rd February 2020, 06:31 PM | #5 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I'm following here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...democrats.html There's live updates from reporters inside the caucuses.
Quote:
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3rd February 2020, 06:58 PM | #6 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I don't know how representative Johnston is, but the NYT reporter there is reporting the results.
Quote:
The big news here is Biden didn't break 15%. We'll see if that holds true for other precincts. Also Klobuchar seems to be doing surprisingly strongly. Only 1 vote behind the leader, Sanders. |
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3rd February 2020, 07:30 PM | #7 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Updates from NYT reporters:
Quote:
Quote:
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3rd February 2020, 07:45 PM | #8 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I wonder if the next door neighbor thing might be helping Klobuchar.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 07:51 PM | #9 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:11 PM | #10 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Taking a long time for results to come in.
Current running count according to NYT: Buttigieg: 1,125 Sanders: 922 Biden: 693 Warren: 676 Klobuchar: 579 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:13 PM | #11 |
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It was interesting seeing some of the responses of former Yang voters in that hilarious MSNBC coverage "hey guys you aren't viable!" .
I believe one was going to Klobuchar, another to Steyer I think and three of them to Sanders. |
3rd February 2020, 08:31 PM | #12 |
Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो
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Actual results in so far (from some precincts & not others) have Bernie ahead slightly with Mayor Pete close behind. Exit polls (a better predictor of what's happening over the whole state instead of just the quickest places to officially report) show Bernie ahead by double digits and Mayor Pete not even in second.
What they agree on is that Gropey McAbsentminded is going down hard. |
3rd February 2020, 08:36 PM | #13 | |||
Penultimate Amazing
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Vote totals don't seem to be changing.
I'm watching NBC News on YouTube right now:
Apparently they had an app that isn't working. |
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3rd February 2020, 08:37 PM | #14 |
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The delay is making people anxious. I hope there was a massive screw up which leads to the end of this stupid system.
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3rd February 2020, 08:41 PM | #15 |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 08:43 PM | #16 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 08:45 PM | #17 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:47 PM | #18 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:51 PM | #19 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:56 PM | #20 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 08:57 PM | #21 |
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3rd February 2020, 08:57 PM | #22 |
Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो
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3rd February 2020, 08:59 PM | #23 |
Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो
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And there goes Mayor Pete on his way down just like the entry/exit polls looked, putting Betty in second behind Bernie. Those two now have more than half of all votes.
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3rd February 2020, 09:02 PM | #24 |
Illuminator
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https://mobile.twitter.com/jaylencav...354298881?s=20
Is this seriously how they determine fractions of a delegate? Like why would you not give it to whichever candidate has the greater fraction? I could maybe see if it was close but when it's .8 to .2 It just seems incredibly stupid if true |
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3rd February 2020, 09:03 PM | #25 |
Penultimate Amazing
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The numbers have finally started to change again.
Sanders jumps into the lead, and Warren vaults into 2nd. Biden falls to 5th. Sanders: 1,811 Warren: 1,636 Buttigieg: 1,553 Klobuchar: 773 Biden: 722 |
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3rd February 2020, 09:07 PM | #26 |
Penultimate Amazing
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If this hold, Biden is toast.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:09 PM | #27 |
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3rd February 2020, 09:10 PM | #28 |
Penultimate Amazing
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And once again the numbers have stopped changing for a long time!
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3rd February 2020, 09:11 PM | #29 |
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I really have to wonder how Biden could be doing so badly.
I personally didn't understand how he was so obviously "electable" except that he was Obama's VP, but even then, how is it he is so far off the pace? Is it something to do with the Iowa demographic? |
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3rd February 2020, 09:11 PM | #30 |
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geezus khrist
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3rd February 2020, 09:13 PM | #31 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I think Iowa is not going to be the first big political contest in 2024......
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:15 PM | #32 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:16 PM | #33 |
Penultimate Amazing
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He was polling well, but polls don't necessarily capture how likely people are to actually show up at the caucuses, or how committed they are to their choice. I honestly think Biden was the first choice for "low-information" voters because they recognized his name. He had the highest name recognition going into it as the former VP.
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A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare |
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3rd February 2020, 09:18 PM | #34 |
Penultimate Amazing
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God, who sold that software to the Iowa Democratic party? Has Professor Harold Hill given up band instruments and gone into computer software?
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:19 PM | #35 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yeah, I would bet that either Iowa goes to a primary system, or they lose their opening spot in elections from now on.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:20 PM | #36 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It's fun watching the talking heads spinning their wheels like crazy.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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3rd February 2020, 09:25 PM | #37 |
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3rd February 2020, 09:26 PM | #38 |
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Reporting is turning more towards "how will Iowa be different in 2024?"
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3rd February 2020, 09:26 PM | #39 |
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3rd February 2020, 09:33 PM | #40 |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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