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11th February 2020, 10:29 PM | #361 |
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11th February 2020, 10:30 PM | #362 |
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Ooh, btw, if you just google nh primary results it shows the delegate breakdown as well as the raw vote count.
Currently 9 each for Sanders and Buttigieg, 6 for Klobuchar. |
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11th February 2020, 10:37 PM | #363 |
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11th February 2020, 10:39 PM | #364 |
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11th February 2020, 10:52 PM | #365 |
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From a strategic perspective, it makes no sense to do anything other than claim a victory. The New Hampshire primary is not the end.
Claiming victory and truthfully being able to point to higher numbers of voters mean you set yourself up as the leader for Nevada where Sanders is already the front-runner. This is different from the Hillary Clinton example where she simply lost, and where her loss was the end of the road. Claiming victory would have been delusional, and nothing more. |
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11th February 2020, 11:36 PM | #366 |
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There's also this handy little delegate tracker page from NPR:
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/79997...andidates-have Or there's this one: https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination |
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12th February 2020, 05:22 AM | #367 |
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There's reality, and there's headlines.
You don't get eyeballs on your news channel with headlines that say, "It's a Tie in a Small State That Barely Matters" Media coverage of primaries is more like sports than anything else, and in sports, people want to be able to declare a winner. |
12th February 2020, 05:50 AM | #368 |
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5th for Biden ......(taps)
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12th February 2020, 05:53 AM | #369 |
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These states matter for defining the later races. Numerically significant or not, they are first and perceptions matter.
Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (to a lesser extent) have emerged as front runners, everyone else is looking like a loser. Primary voters may treat voting for Biden, Warren, or the others as throwing their votes away. I expect the vote totals to start coalescing around the 3 viable candidates unless some major turnaround happens. |
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12th February 2020, 05:58 AM | #370 |
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12th February 2020, 06:03 AM | #371 |
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12th February 2020, 06:15 AM | #372 |
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12th February 2020, 06:20 AM | #373 |
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Have to agree. Sanders has benefited on the inability of the centrist wing to select a candidate and stop splitting their votes. It doesn't help that neither of the viable candidates for this lane seem particularly strong.
As a Bernie supporter, I hope the moderate wing jockeying continues on for some time. Unless Pete or Klobuchar really work some magic, SC will not solidify either of them as the moderate candidate and a strong-ish finish for Biden will just throw their camp back into disarray. |
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12th February 2020, 06:25 AM | #374 |
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12th February 2020, 06:42 AM | #375 |
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12th February 2020, 07:01 AM | #376 |
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Dem primaries are turning out much more interesting than I expected.
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12th February 2020, 07:31 AM | #377 |
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In other words, there are systemic rewards in place which incentivize sensational first-past-the-post style coverage even when those doing the reporting know full well the result is a tie on the points which actually matter, that is, pledged delegates. My point was (and remains) that as skeptics we should be promoting a more factual and grounded approach.
Indeed. Here are my takeaways so far:
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12th February 2020, 07:33 AM | #378 |
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12th February 2020, 07:37 AM | #379 |
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As soon as a candidate and/or their supporters who won Iowa/New Hampshire / Super Tuesday goes "Shrug LOL doesn't matter" I'll listen.
It's just a sub-genre of the "Polls don't matter when your guy is losing, they do when he is winning" tactic. |
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12th February 2020, 07:44 AM | #380 |
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12th February 2020, 08:00 AM | #381 |
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Had I bet on who would be leading at this point, I would have lost, along with almost everyone else. I'm encouraged mostly because I think either Amy or Pete are better than crazy uncle Joe and Sanders is at least more authentic than Warren. If this trend continues, my choices in the primary will not suck.
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12th February 2020, 08:04 AM | #382 |
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12th February 2020, 08:08 AM | #383 |
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For reality based reasons. Voting does not take place in a hyper rational world. It's fine to base your personal opinions on that, but extrapolating that to the larger population is divorced from reality.
The nature of FPTP is that many voters engage let some game theory to inform their votes. Voters may opt to vote for a lower preference candidate if their top tier is not viable. The staggered voting schedule means that voter preference is an iterative process as front-runners emerge and weaker candidates fall off. People often change their mind about how they will vote if it becomes clear their preferred candidate cannot win. You can categorize this as irrational horse-racing, but this is the context in which the race will be decided. I also suspect that having more centrist candidates with no clear front-runner hinders the ability of party elites to effectively express their anti-Sanders bias.
Quote:
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12th February 2020, 08:09 AM | #384 |
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It's "The Spoiler Effect" and it's what turns two party first past the post systems into.... *gestures at everything* this.
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12th February 2020, 09:03 AM | #385 |
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Democratic nominating contest is not FPTP, and therefore the press should stop covering it as such.
With a rather small fraction of the primary votes in so far, can we make a rational assessment of general election viability? Seems to me that would be "extrapolating...to the larger population" in a "divorced from reality" way, unless the first two states happen to be representative of the general voting population. People often engage in the fallacy of hasty inductionWP as well. As of now, we've seen 64 delegates pledged in a race to 1,991. |
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12th February 2020, 11:22 AM | #386 |
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12th February 2020, 01:30 PM | #387 |
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Post-NH the 538 primary model has Bernie tied with a contested convention.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/ |
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12th February 2020, 03:36 PM | #388 |
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12th February 2020, 05:02 PM | #389 |
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This is a fair correction, Tsukasa, and I appreciate the linky.
That said, I don't have a adjective for "the sort of convention that requires pledged delegates to break their (surprisingly non-binding) pledges in order to make things work," which may or may not be technically brokered or contested. |
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12th February 2020, 05:59 PM | #390 |
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I have tons of respect for Silver and his stats, but I do wonder if we aren't quite a bit off the beaten path in this primary, with Steyer and Bloomberg looming ahead. If you look at his projections for the upcoming primaries and caucuses, he has Bernie winning every state (scroll down).
Well, of course if that happens it's Sanders easily, even if he doesn't end up with a majority of delegates. But Steyer has been registering significant support in South Carolina, and Bloomberg has the money to face Sanders, who seems to be the exact candidate he entered the race to beat. |
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12th February 2020, 06:13 PM | #391 |
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It's pretty amazing that Sanders has pulled ahead in Nevada and South Carolina especially given that the latter was seen as a Biden stronghold.
If Sanders wins, Biden might limp on to Super Tuesday, but he will be finished. As for the billionaires and their big spending ways, isn't it the case that after a certain level of money, you get massively diminishing returns? For example, if you have seen Bloomberg's ads 500 times, how much more likely are you to vote for him if you see his adverts another 100 or 200 times? |
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12th February 2020, 07:07 PM | #392 |
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Also worth digging deeper into the high pay rates Bloomberg is often cited as having. Yes, he's hiring lots of people connected to state-level parties and giving them generous sums for consulting/strategic work. This is wonk-speak for "opening doors and doing certain favors for me."
I will admit this is not a new or particularly insidious thing, but neither is it an admirable or respectable thing. |
12th February 2020, 07:16 PM | #393 |
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He hasn't, maybe. If you are looking at the 538 projections, they are based on a lot of other things like national polls. NV hasn't had a poll since January, and SC polls were before IA, and Biden was still leading. NV is particularly hard to poll, as well. We don't have any actual updates based on recent events.
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12th February 2020, 08:22 PM | #395 |
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12th February 2020, 11:22 PM | #396 |
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This. Part of the problem (or maybe not) is that it assumes a bounce (slight or big, depending on certain factors) for the winner of each primary or caucus, but it does not make some rather obvious assumptions about who will drop out (or more complicated ones about who will pick up votes from the drop-outs' supporters).
I think he's way underestimating both Steyer and Bloomberg. He doesn't even have Klobuchar broken out separately (she's still in the 100-1 field) although it seems obvious that she will outlast Warren. |
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12th February 2020, 11:47 PM | #397 |
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BTW, the turnout in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire broke the 2008 record by about 3% (296,222-287,527). Not sure how to interpret that especially since 2008 had very competitive races on both sides unlike Tuesday.
One thing I am hearing from pundits but have not seen polling on is that Buttigieg is doing well among younger voters that he is blunting some of Bernie's advantage in that demo. And that younger voters did not come out en masse in New Hampshire. Again a big part of Bernie's message is that he can get the youth vote out. |
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13th February 2020, 08:33 AM | #398 |
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The fact that 5 territories have primaries when they can't vote for the President is weird to me.
71 delegates out of 3,979 isn't like enough to skew any numbers or anything so it doesn't matter, it's just weird. |
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13th February 2020, 08:58 AM | #399 |
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Location: Canada, eh?
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13th February 2020, 09:13 AM | #400 |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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