IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 3rd February 2023, 08:15 AM   #1
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 29,368
Chinese Spy Balloon Over Montana

A Chinese spy balloon has been spotted over Montana. One thing I liked about the video I saw was that the Moon was in the same shot, then panned over to the balloon, which shows some equipment dangling from the bottom. Hopefully that would dash any conspiracy theories or "Oh, it's just the Moon" comments. The story is also backed up by several sources.

Actually I think it's kind of interesting that China can do that, but somewhat concerning. I can't think of much they could discern that they haven't already from that height. I would be more concerned about what it's carrying, and the implications of more of them carrying deadly substances.

I think it's a deception that the military is saying it won't shoot it down for fear of hurting people on the ground. It's Montana! There's nobody there! But I guess it does make sense to try to capture it intact. I'd like to see them use the pincer grab that was used in a Batman movie. That would be cool.

(eta)
Just in: US Secretary of State Blinken has postponed his upcoming China trip because of this.
__________________
Science is self-correcting.
Woo is self-contradicting.

Last edited by alfaniner; 3rd February 2023 at 08:28 AM.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 08:30 AM   #2
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I think it's a deception that the military is saying it won't shoot it down for fear of hurting people on the ground. It's Montana! There's nobody there! But I guess it does make sense to try to capture it intact. I'd like to see them use the pincer grab that was used in a Batman movie. That would be cool.
Super cool, actually.

Maybe I'm being overly critical here, but it seems like a flaw that we can shoot a missile out of the sky, but we haven't thought of any way to counteract advanced balloon technology. Feels like we should be able to blow up the tech underneath to small enough pieces that terminal velocity would render the remains relatively harmless. Or maybe fry the crap out of the electronics so it becomes non-functional?

ETA: So, now I'm stuck thinking about this problem. It looks like there is an array of at least 8 balloons holding this equipment up. I wonder how many you'd have to take out before it begins to drop at a reasonable speed? Could you launch "balloon popper" missiles with enough accuracy to take out only one balloon at a time?
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.

Last edited by Upchurch; 3rd February 2023 at 08:45 AM.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:04 AM   #3
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,914
We shoot missiles out of the sky because they're missiles, and shooting them down is almost always preferable to letting them reach their destination.

We can shoot spy satellites down, but we generally don't bother. Same with... spy balloons. You're not being overly critical, just selectively naive.

If you were being overly critical, you might point and laugh at China resorting to balloons because they can't afford or can't manage satellites.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:18 AM   #4
ahhell
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,661
It's obviously cover for aliens. Its not a balloon its a space ship and the ChiComs like all other world governments are in on the cover up.

That being said, I think we aren't shooting it down because the military and intelligence types don't think it will reveal anything useful to the ChiComs and its not worth the risk of hurting any cows or people, or poking the ChiComs.

Its probably mostly just a test of concept and US reactions by the ChiComs.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:23 AM   #5
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
We can shoot spy satellites down, but we generally don't bother. Same with... spy balloons. You're not being overly critical, just selectively naive.
Okay.

I'm saying this seems like it is a solvable problem and having some fun thinking about it.
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:26 AM   #6
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Why...would you make a spy balloon that is visible to the naked eye from the ground? Doesn't seem very clandestine. And how are they sure it's Chinese? I mean, everything is made in China now so if they just see "Made in China" on the side it's not really a slam dunk.
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:37 AM   #7
ahhell
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,661
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Why...would you make a spy balloon that is visible to the naked eye from the ground? Doesn't seem very clandestine. And how are they sure it's Chinese? I mean, everything is made in China now so if they just see "Made in China" on the side it's not really a slam dunk.
From what I gather, the Chinese admit it came from them but not that its a spy balloon.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:41 AM   #8
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
From what I gather, the Chinese admit it came from them but not that its a spy balloon.
Is it the shipment from that Christmas gift I ordered?
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:42 AM   #9
ahhell
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,661
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Is it the shipment from that Christmas gift I ordered?
No, that's still in transit.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 09:47 AM   #10
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Do I recall correctly that balloons are not easily detected by radar? If so, this would make a scary weapons deployment system, like a bomb with a simple altimeter that would detonate below a certain altitude, as well as remote detonation.
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:05 AM   #11
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
Japan tried balloons as weapons deployment systems in WWII. It was mostly unsuccessful, although it did kill some civilians and started some fires. But that was all very little relative to the effort Japan put into the project.

So the thing seems to be somewhere around 80,000 to 100,000 feet. The U.S. doesn't have any airplanes that fly that high other than (maybe) the SR-71 which is retired and so far as I know, never carried weapons in actual service.

U.S. aircraft carry missiles that can go that high and it does show up on radar. But the radar guided missiles use doppler effects to pick out moving targets. The balloon is too slow so these systems see it as a cloud. Not hot enough for heat-seeking missiles either.

That said, it's a big fat target. Some news sources are claiming it looks as big as the full moon, but based on the video I saw that seems to be wildly inaccurate.

So I would guess that various Airforce and Navy and NASA and defense contractor people are sitting down right now going over how to modify existing missiles to get the thing. And if they don't get this one, they'll get be ready for the next one. It is, after all, a big, fat, slow target that just happens to be really high up and not show up on radar the same way most military targets do.
crescent is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:30 AM   #12
Jack by the hedge
Safely Ignored
 
Jack by the hedge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
It's an experimental balloon.


The experiment is to see what America does about it. Shooting at it with something would provide the Chinese with more information than leaving it alone and protesting.
Jack by the hedge is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:34 AM   #13
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Next up: China sends over guys in trenchcoats and dark sunglasses to stand around conspicuously.
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:39 AM   #14
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
So the thing seems to be somewhere around 80,000 to 100,000 feet. The U.S. doesn't have any airplanes that fly that high other than (maybe) the SR-71 which is retired and so far as I know, never carried weapons in actual service.

U.S. aircraft carry missiles that can go that high and it does show up on radar. But the radar guided missiles use doppler effects to pick out moving targets. The balloon is too slow so these systems see it as a cloud. Not hot enough for heat-seeking missiles either.
You could bounce a laser off the thing and a missile could track that, either from a plane flying at a lower altitude or, at least with this one, from the ground.


Originally Posted by crescent View Post
So I would guess that various Airforce and Navy and NASA and defense contractor people are sitting down right now going over how to modify existing missiles to get the thing. And if they don't get this one, they'll get be ready for the next one. It is, after all, a big, fat, slow target that just happens to be really high up and not show up on radar the same way most military targets do.
Like I said before, I would be surprised if they hadn't already put some thought into this before now. Still, it feels like an interesting engineering problem.
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:47 AM   #15
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
It is currently over Kansas City, visible to the naked eye.


Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
You could bounce a laser off the thing and a missile could track that, either from a plane flying at a lower altitude or, at least with this one, from the ground.



Like I said before, I would be surprised if they hadn't already put some thought into this before now. Still, it feels like an interesting engineering problem.
I had not thought about laser guided missiles. Just scrolling through twitter some have mentioned that such balloons were used by the west during the Cold War, and Russia the USSR shot many of them down. They even reused some of the balloon material on a lunar probe. It had good insulation and didn't break down too fast when exposed to unfiltered sunlight.

Of course, it is totally possible that the government is actually being honest about the risk of falling debris, such that they can shoot it down but choose not to.

Last edited by crescent; 3rd February 2023 at 10:52 AM.
crescent is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 10:55 AM   #16
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,066
News stories I have read state that the Pentagon does not think it is any more capable than China's spy satellites. Given that it isn't concealed in anyway, a possible goal is to test US air defenses.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 11:26 AM   #17
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 11:34 AM   #18
plague311
Great minds think...
 
plague311's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: North Dakota
Posts: 13,903
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
The issue would be falling debris and I believe someone mentioned the altitude the balloon is flying at is an issue as well.
__________________
“There are times when the mind is dealt such a blow it hides itself in insanity. While this may not seem beneficial, it is. There are times when reality is nothing but pain, and to escape that pain the mind must leave reality behind.” - Patrick Rothfuss
plague311 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 11:35 AM   #19
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 68,744
Can't just a laser by itself take down a balloon? Heat up the surface until it pops or at least makes a hole?
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 11:49 AM   #20
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
The latest I'm seeing is that it is down to somewhere around 60,000 to 55,000 feet. Civilian aircraft can't get that high (unless you count some NASA aircraft as "civilian". A Cessna couldn't get to half that altitude, never mind a cheap drone.

But it is now low enough for a fighter aircraft to shoot it with guns (ETA: Barely. F-22, F-15 and F-16 [maybe] can get that high, but F-35, F-18, can't, at least not according to what the military publicly claims).

My guess is that they'll wait until one of two things:
1: It gets low enough such that they can be pretty certain of where the debris will land, and then pop the bubble when it is over a safe empty place.

or

2: Wait for it to get over the ocean and get it there.

They'll also want to be able to control who gets access to the wreckage.

Last edited by crescent; 3rd February 2023 at 11:56 AM.
crescent is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 12:50 PM   #21
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 29,368
I'd think that recovering it intact would provide far more valuable information than just shooting it down into a pile of trash.
__________________
Science is self-correcting.
Woo is self-contradicting.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 12:52 PM   #22
sarge
Penultimate Amazing
Moderator
 
sarge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Fayetteville, NC
Posts: 11,485
It is a weather research ballon. It being here is accidental. We aren’t shooting it down because we actually believe it is not a spy balloon and therefore the risk of bringing it down on people or property is, although relatively remote, higher than anything we’d gain by shooting it down.

These are the things most likely to be true, so I’m going with them.
__________________
My previous signature risked (unknowingly) violating the Hatch Act!
sarge is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 12:56 PM   #23
shemp
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
 
shemp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Where the Old Man of the Mountain used to stand
Posts: 58,585
Just send up a big balloon full of hydrogen with a small explosive detonator. Maneuver up close, set off the explosive, BOOM! Everything goes up in flames Hindenburg-style!

Or, more sensibly, just track it until it goes out to sea, then shoot it down. Or ignore it until enough helium leaks and it crashes.

I think it probably is a weather balloon that was over the North Pacific or Arctic, and got blown off course. There's probably a lot of Chinese bigwigs who are having a good laugh over this, watching us make fools of ourselves. Which isn't difficult, we have a low bar for foolishness.
__________________
Being the victim of genocidal atrocities does not give you free reign to commit your own genocidal atrocities.

When Republican politicians were young, they were the kids who watched James Bond movies and said "I want to grow up to be just like [insert name of villain here]."
shemp is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:04 PM   #24
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Japan tried balloons as weapons deployment systems in WWII. It was mostly unsuccessful, although it did kill some civilians and started some fires. But that was all very little relative to the effort Japan put into the project.

So the thing seems to be somewhere around 80,000 to 100,000 feet. The U.S. doesn't have any airplanes that fly that high other than (maybe) the SR-71 which is retired and so far as I know, never carried weapons in actual service.

U.S. aircraft carry missiles that can go that high and it does show up on radar. But the radar guided missiles use doppler effects to pick out moving targets. The balloon is too slow so these systems see it as a cloud. Not hot enough for heat-seeking missiles either.

That said, it's a big fat target. Some news sources are claiming it looks as big as the full moon, but based on the video I saw that seems to be wildly inaccurate.

So I would guess that various Airforce and Navy and NASA and defense contractor people are sitting down right now going over how to modify existing missiles to get the thing. And if they don't get this one, they'll get be ready for the next one. It is, after all, a big, fat, slow target that just happens to be really high up and not show up on radar the same way most military targets do.
First think I though of when I read this story.
The Japanese Balloon Campaign was pretty much a bust;it might have started a couple of small fires that were quickly contianed; and it did kill a couple of civilians when they set off the incendiary device when checking out the debris of a crashed balloon. (One of the mian reasons the campaign was a bust was the ignitiion device for the explosives prove to be very,very, unreliable.)
Too bad we don't have the Blackbird in out inventory; it could have flown up and shot the sucker down.
Thought balloon busting, of course, brings back memories of Frank Luke, the balloon buster of World War 1 he was a US pilot who became famous for his skill at shooting down German Obersrvation Balloons. He was KIA, and there is a statue of him in Phoenix, since he was from Arizona.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:04 PM   #25
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Just send up a big balloon full of hydrogen with a small explosive detonator. Maneuver up close, set off the explosive, BOOM! Everything goes up in flames Hindenburg-style!

Or, more sensibly, just track it until it goes out to sea, then shoot it down. Or ignore it until enough helium leaks and it crashes.

I think it probably is a weather balloon that was over the North Pacific or Arctic, and got blown off course. There's probably a lot of Chinese bigwigs who are having a good laugh over this, watching us make fools of ourselves. Which isn't difficult, we have a low bar for foolishness.

You can say that about humanity in general.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:06 PM   #26
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by sarge View Post
It is a weather research ballon. It being here is accidental. We aren’t shooting it down because we actually believe it is not a spy balloon and therefore the risk of bringing it down on people or property is, although relatively remote, higher than anything we’d gain by shooting it down.

These are the things most likely to be true, so I’m going with them.
Thing it is still violating US Airspace even if true.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:06 PM   #27
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
Way too high for a Cessna, though.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:10 PM   #28
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Where the Arrantly Roam
Posts: 26,169
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Way too high for a Cessna, though.
Yeah, I don't mean literally Cessna's and shotguns. I mean that popping a flipping balloon doesn't seem like such a high tech problem.
__________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain
"Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:14 PM   #29
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
Lots of CT's about the balloon:


1: Biden has known about it for weeks. (It was probably only launched less than a week ago).

2: It has an EMP (This one is really popular at the moment, I'm guessing Fox news or some conservative conspiracy monger with a live show is pushing it).

3: The balloon is full of poison gas, or viruses.

4: My own personal theory that you all get to see first: A small boy from Colorado is inside and needs to be rescued and his parents totally are not thinking about having their own reality TV show.

They also can't seem to comprehend that the balloon is moving, it's not over Montana anymore. Nor is it "hovering" as some news reports have said. It is really that hard for news reports to use the word "drifting"??
crescent is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:23 PM   #30
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 30,145
The British balloon campaign of WW2 (Operation Outward) was highly successful for its cost.

Also shooting satellites is a monumentally stupid idea.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:26 PM   #31
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Lots of CT's about the balloon:


1: Biden has known about it for weeks. (It was probably only launched less than a week ago).

2: It has an EMP (This one is really popular at the moment, I'm guessing Fox news or some conservative conspiracy monger with a live show is pushing it).

3: The balloon is full of poison gas, or viruses.

4: My own personal theory that you all get to see first: A small boy from Colorado is inside and needs to be rescued and his parents totally are not thinking about having their own reality TV show.

They also can't seem to comprehend that the balloon is moving, it's not over Montana anymore. Nor is it "hovering" as some news reports have said. It is really that hard for news reports to use the word "drifting"??
A Balloon is not a particularly efficent way of delievering either weapon. The Japanese seriously considered usint their balloons to deliver biological weapons....which they had used in China,,,byt found in tests the viruses ,with the methods of storage they had avialble, could not survive at the high attitudes.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:26 PM   #32
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Blinken has cancelled his trip to China over this.
The situation has, excuse the pun, ballooned up bigly.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:28 PM   #33
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
The British balloon campaign of WW2 (Operation Outward) was highly successful for its cost.

Also shooting satellites is a monumentally stupid idea.
Satellites are above US Airspace. THis Balloon is not.It's a clear violation of US Air Space. I will go with the Pentagon's judgement not shoot it down..I suspect it is because they are studying it ...but the US would be 100% withink it rights to shoot the damn thing down.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:36 PM   #34
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Blinken has cancelled his trip to China over this.
The situation has, excuse the pun, ballooned up bigly.
Well, as I understand it, not much was going to come from that meeting anyway.
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:37 PM   #35
Gord_in_Toronto
Penultimate Amazing
 
Gord_in_Toronto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 24,921
Originally Posted by sarge View Post
It is a weather research ballon. It being here is accidental. We aren’t shooting it down because we actually believe it is not a spy balloon and therefore the risk of bringing it down on people or property is, although relatively remote, higher than anything we’d gain by shooting it down.

These are the things most likely to be true, so I’m going with them.
STOP IT SARGE!! Rational thinking is not NEEDED HERE!!

Proper headline. Bog Standard High Altitude Weather Balloon Malfunctions and does not Terminate Mission

There are tens of thousands of these things launched very year.

The one thing it is not is a "Spy Balloon". As it is completely and utterly useless for such a purpose.

A beautiful quote from a "military spokesperson" I just heard on the radio is that we should not worry if it "loiters over certain locations". How the **** is a balloon going to do that?

If it is now being tracked, when it falls from the sky someone can pick it up (wearing a hazardous materials suit of course) and return it the the Chinese Ministry of Meteorology. According to NOAA each launch costs about $200(US) so it might not be worth the cost of postage.


__________________
"Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick
Gord_in_Toronto is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:43 PM   #36
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think (Updated)

Quote:
The problem though is one of scale. Stratospheric balloons are colossal. NASA’s standard balloons are 40 million cubic feet, a volume equivalent to more than 195 GoodyearGT -1.4% blimps: you could fit en entire football stadium inside one. The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating.
crescent is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 01:55 PM   #37
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
Originally Posted by sarge View Post
It is a weather research ballon. It being here is accidental.
Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
The one thing it is not is a "Spy Balloon".
The Chinese government agrees with you. Whether that makes the claim more or less creditable, I don't know and, frankly, I don't much care. It's been a fun exercise to think about.


eta: For example, this
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Is a fascinating read and kills my "balloon popper" missile idea. Best option would be to disable the cargo, I think.
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.

Last edited by Upchurch; 3rd February 2023 at 01:59 PM.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 02:02 PM   #38
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 29,368
It's positioned over Kansas now. It's obviously Professor Marvel, aka The Wizard of OZ, attempting to return home. After all, there's no place like home.
__________________
Science is self-correcting.
Woo is self-contradicting.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 02:39 PM   #39
mgidm86
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 8,624
Herschel Walker is saying I told you so
mgidm86 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd February 2023, 02:40 PM   #40
lobosrul5
Philosopher
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 7,349
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
Its at 80,000+ feet... good luck getting a model 172 that high.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:01 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.