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3rd February 2023, 08:15 AM | #1 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Chinese Spy Balloon Over Montana
A Chinese spy balloon has been spotted over Montana. One thing I liked about the video I saw was that the Moon was in the same shot, then panned over to the balloon, which shows some equipment dangling from the bottom. Hopefully that would dash any conspiracy theories or "Oh, it's just the Moon" comments. The story is also backed up by several sources.
Actually I think it's kind of interesting that China can do that, but somewhat concerning. I can't think of much they could discern that they haven't already from that height. I would be more concerned about what it's carrying, and the implications of more of them carrying deadly substances. I think it's a deception that the military is saying it won't shoot it down for fear of hurting people on the ground. It's Montana! There's nobody there! But I guess it does make sense to try to capture it intact. I'd like to see them use the pincer grab that was used in a Batman movie. That would be cool. (eta) Just in: US Secretary of State Blinken has postponed his upcoming China trip because of this. |
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3rd February 2023, 08:30 AM | #2 |
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Super cool, actually.
Maybe I'm being overly critical here, but it seems like a flaw that we can shoot a missile out of the sky, but we haven't thought of any way to counteract advanced balloon technology. Feels like we should be able to blow up the tech underneath to small enough pieces that terminal velocity would render the remains relatively harmless. Or maybe fry the crap out of the electronics so it becomes non-functional? ETA: So, now I'm stuck thinking about this problem. It looks like there is an array of at least 8 balloons holding this equipment up. I wonder how many you'd have to take out before it begins to drop at a reasonable speed? Could you launch "balloon popper" missiles with enough accuracy to take out only one balloon at a time? |
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3rd February 2023, 09:04 AM | #3 |
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We shoot missiles out of the sky because they're missiles, and shooting them down is almost always preferable to letting them reach their destination.
We can shoot spy satellites down, but we generally don't bother. Same with... spy balloons. You're not being overly critical, just selectively naive. If you were being overly critical, you might point and laugh at China resorting to balloons because they can't afford or can't manage satellites. |
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3rd February 2023, 09:18 AM | #4 |
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It's obviously cover for aliens. Its not a balloon its a space ship and the ChiComs like all other world governments are in on the cover up.
That being said, I think we aren't shooting it down because the military and intelligence types don't think it will reveal anything useful to the ChiComs and its not worth the risk of hurting any cows or people, or poking the ChiComs. Its probably mostly just a test of concept and US reactions by the ChiComs. |
3rd February 2023, 09:23 AM | #5 |
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3rd February 2023, 09:26 AM | #6 |
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Why...would you make a spy balloon that is visible to the naked eye from the ground? Doesn't seem very clandestine. And how are they sure it's Chinese? I mean, everything is made in China now so if they just see "Made in China" on the side it's not really a slam dunk.
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3rd February 2023, 09:37 AM | #7 |
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3rd February 2023, 09:41 AM | #8 |
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3rd February 2023, 09:42 AM | #9 |
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3rd February 2023, 09:47 AM | #10 |
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Do I recall correctly that balloons are not easily detected by radar? If so, this would make a scary weapons deployment system, like a bomb with a simple altimeter that would detonate below a certain altitude, as well as remote detonation.
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3rd February 2023, 10:05 AM | #11 |
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Japan tried balloons as weapons deployment systems in WWII. It was mostly unsuccessful, although it did kill some civilians and started some fires. But that was all very little relative to the effort Japan put into the project.
So the thing seems to be somewhere around 80,000 to 100,000 feet. The U.S. doesn't have any airplanes that fly that high other than (maybe) the SR-71 which is retired and so far as I know, never carried weapons in actual service. U.S. aircraft carry missiles that can go that high and it does show up on radar. But the radar guided missiles use doppler effects to pick out moving targets. The balloon is too slow so these systems see it as a cloud. Not hot enough for heat-seeking missiles either. That said, it's a big fat target. Some news sources are claiming it looks as big as the full moon, but based on the video I saw that seems to be wildly inaccurate. So I would guess that various Airforce and Navy and NASA and defense contractor people are sitting down right now going over how to modify existing missiles to get the thing. And if they don't get this one, they'll get be ready for the next one. It is, after all, a big, fat, slow target that just happens to be really high up and not show up on radar the same way most military targets do. |
3rd February 2023, 10:30 AM | #12 |
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It's an experimental balloon.
The experiment is to see what America does about it. Shooting at it with something would provide the Chinese with more information than leaving it alone and protesting. |
3rd February 2023, 10:34 AM | #13 |
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Next up: China sends over guys in trenchcoats and dark sunglasses to stand around conspicuously.
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3rd February 2023, 10:39 AM | #14 |
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You could bounce a laser off the thing and a missile could track that, either from a plane flying at a lower altitude or, at least with this one, from the ground.
Like I said before, I would be surprised if they hadn't already put some thought into this before now. Still, it feels like an interesting engineering problem. |
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3rd February 2023, 10:47 AM | #15 |
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It is currently over Kansas City, visible to the naked eye.
I had not thought about laser guided missiles. Just scrolling through twitter some have mentioned that such balloons were used by the west during the Cold War, and Of course, it is totally possible that the government is actually being honest about the risk of falling debris, such that they can shoot it down but choose not to. |
3rd February 2023, 10:55 AM | #16 |
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News stories I have read state that the Pentagon does not think it is any more capable than China's spy satellites. Given that it isn't concealed in anyway, a possible goal is to test US air defenses.
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3rd February 2023, 11:26 AM | #17 |
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Laser guided missiles? Couldn't this be solved with like a Cessna and a shotgun? Or maybe one of those Wal-Mart drones with an icepick mounted on the front?
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3rd February 2023, 11:34 AM | #18 |
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3rd February 2023, 11:35 AM | #19 |
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Can't just a laser by itself take down a balloon? Heat up the surface until it pops or at least makes a hole?
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3rd February 2023, 11:49 AM | #20 |
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The latest I'm seeing is that it is down to somewhere around 60,000 to 55,000 feet. Civilian aircraft can't get that high (unless you count some NASA aircraft as "civilian". A Cessna couldn't get to half that altitude, never mind a cheap drone.
But it is now low enough for a fighter aircraft to shoot it with guns (ETA: Barely. F-22, F-15 and F-16 [maybe] can get that high, but F-35, F-18, can't, at least not according to what the military publicly claims). My guess is that they'll wait until one of two things: 1: It gets low enough such that they can be pretty certain of where the debris will land, and then pop the bubble when it is over a safe empty place. or 2: Wait for it to get over the ocean and get it there. They'll also want to be able to control who gets access to the wreckage. |
3rd February 2023, 12:50 PM | #21 |
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I'd think that recovering it intact would provide far more valuable information than just shooting it down into a pile of trash.
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3rd February 2023, 12:52 PM | #22 |
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It is a weather research ballon. It being here is accidental. We aren’t shooting it down because we actually believe it is not a spy balloon and therefore the risk of bringing it down on people or property is, although relatively remote, higher than anything we’d gain by shooting it down.
These are the things most likely to be true, so I’m going with them. |
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3rd February 2023, 12:56 PM | #23 |
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Just send up a big balloon full of hydrogen with a small explosive detonator. Maneuver up close, set off the explosive, BOOM! Everything goes up in flames Hindenburg-style!
Or, more sensibly, just track it until it goes out to sea, then shoot it down. Or ignore it until enough helium leaks and it crashes. I think it probably is a weather balloon that was over the North Pacific or Arctic, and got blown off course. There's probably a lot of Chinese bigwigs who are having a good laugh over this, watching us make fools of ourselves. Which isn't difficult, we have a low bar for foolishness. |
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3rd February 2023, 01:04 PM | #24 |
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First think I though of when I read this story.
The Japanese Balloon Campaign was pretty much a bust;it might have started a couple of small fires that were quickly contianed; and it did kill a couple of civilians when they set off the incendiary device when checking out the debris of a crashed balloon. (One of the mian reasons the campaign was a bust was the ignitiion device for the explosives prove to be very,very, unreliable.) Too bad we don't have the Blackbird in out inventory; it could have flown up and shot the sucker down. Thought balloon busting, of course, brings back memories of Frank Luke, the balloon buster of World War 1 he was a US pilot who became famous for his skill at shooting down German Obersrvation Balloons. He was KIA, and there is a statue of him in Phoenix, since he was from Arizona. |
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3rd February 2023, 01:04 PM | #25 |
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3rd February 2023, 01:06 PM | #26 |
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3rd February 2023, 01:06 PM | #27 |
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3rd February 2023, 01:10 PM | #28 |
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3rd February 2023, 01:14 PM | #29 |
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Lots of CT's about the balloon:
1: Biden has known about it for weeks. (It was probably only launched less than a week ago). 2: It has an EMP (This one is really popular at the moment, I'm guessing Fox news or some conservative conspiracy monger with a live show is pushing it). 3: The balloon is full of poison gas, or viruses. 4: My own personal theory that you all get to see first: A small boy from Colorado is inside and needs to be rescued and his parents totally are not thinking about having their own reality TV show. They also can't seem to comprehend that the balloon is moving, it's not over Montana anymore. Nor is it "hovering" as some news reports have said. It is really that hard for news reports to use the word "drifting"?? |
3rd February 2023, 01:23 PM | #30 |
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The British balloon campaign of WW2 (Operation Outward) was highly successful for its cost.
Also shooting satellites is a monumentally stupid idea. |
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3rd February 2023, 01:26 PM | #31 |
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A Balloon is not a particularly efficent way of delievering either weapon. The Japanese seriously considered usint their balloons to deliver biological weapons....which they had used in China,,,byt found in tests the viruses ,with the methods of storage they had avialble, could not survive at the high attitudes.
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3rd February 2023, 01:26 PM | #32 |
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Blinken has cancelled his trip to China over this.
The situation has, excuse the pun, ballooned up bigly. |
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3rd February 2023, 01:28 PM | #33 |
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Satellites are above US Airspace. THis Balloon is not.It's a clear violation of US Air Space. I will go with the Pentagon's judgement not shoot it down..I suspect it is because they are studying it ...but the US would be 100% withink it rights to shoot the damn thing down.
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3rd February 2023, 01:36 PM | #34 |
Papa Funkosophy
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3rd February 2023, 01:37 PM | #35 |
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STOP IT SARGE!! Rational thinking is not NEEDED HERE!!
Proper headline. Bog Standard High Altitude Weather Balloon Malfunctions and does not Terminate Mission There are tens of thousands of these things launched very year. The one thing it is not is a "Spy Balloon". As it is completely and utterly useless for such a purpose. A beautiful quote from a "military spokesperson" I just heard on the radio is that we should not worry if it "loiters over certain locations". How the **** is a balloon going to do that? If it is now being tracked, when it falls from the sky someone can pick it up (wearing a hazardous materials suit of course) and return it the the Chinese Ministry of Meteorology. According to NOAA each launch costs about $200(US) so it might not be worth the cost of postage. |
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3rd February 2023, 01:43 PM | #36 |
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3rd February 2023, 01:55 PM | #37 |
Papa Funkosophy
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The Chinese government agrees with you. Whether that makes the claim more or less creditable, I don't know and, frankly, I don't much care. It's been a fun exercise to think about.
eta: For example, this Is a fascinating read and kills my "balloon popper" missile idea. Best option would be to disable the cargo, I think. |
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3rd February 2023, 02:02 PM | #38 |
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It's positioned over Kansas now. It's obviously Professor Marvel, aka The Wizard of OZ, attempting to return home. After all, there's no place like home.
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3rd February 2023, 02:39 PM | #39 |
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Herschel Walker is saying I told you so
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3rd February 2023, 02:40 PM | #40 |
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